Multiple-Attribute-Based Expert Support System for Customer/Order Evaluation

Sales and marketing people routinely evaluate and rank their customers to develop a marketing strategy and plan of action for utilizing available sales resources. Performing this evaluation informally makes it difficult to take into account all the significant customer attributes in a consistent and objective manner. In this paper an approach based on multiple attributes is developed to assist in evaluating customer performance. This approach is coded primarily in an expert system shell, which is run on a personal computer. The expert system shell was chosen over other software by the marketing people because they preferred its user-friendly capabilities. This system is being used by the Tin Mill Products Marketing office of Bethlehem Steel and is being considered for use by other product-line marketing offices within Bethlehem.     

Distribution of Empty Railcars by an Expert System: A Case Study with Comparison with OR Approaches

The assignment of empty railcars by the SNCF (French Railways) distributors according to supply and demand from the regions could be considered as a conventional resource allocation problem. As such, it would be suitable for processing by integer programming. However, as the problem is currently solved by the reasoning process of the distributors, it involves much more strategic knowledge than linear programming. Based on this observation, we developed an allocation system centred on an expert system designed to reproduce the reasoning processes of the distributors. This paper describes the system, and the reasons why the ES approach seems more adapted to the problem than the OR pure solution.     

A Routing and Scheduling Problem for a Rail System: A Case Study

Railways are extensively used in the Australian sugar industry to transport cane from farms to the factories. Development of efficient schedules manually is difficult, given a weak set of constraints and the need to consider operating and capital costs and the deterioration of cane in the period between harvesting and processing. The Cane Railway Scheduling Problem deals with the design of a regular schedule. The algorithm devised is based on a serial decomposition (with routing and scheduling considered separately) to generate a trial solution, modification of the trial solution to provide a first feasible solution and iterative refinement to provide the final solution. Comparison of solutions produced by the algorithm and those generated manually suggests potential savings ranging from 20% to 30% in annual operating costs with accompanying reductions in rolling stock requirements. Use of the model in the industry is noted.     

Experiences in Developing an Expert System for MBA Admissions

An expert system to assist in admitting students onto a part-time postgraduate course has been developed through three phases, using an expert systems shell. The first phase was an unstructured approach, which demonstrated the feasibility of the system but led to difficulties in development. The second phase followed a simplified systems analysis and resulted in a more comprehensive and structured system. However, its operation was cumbersome and unfriendly. The third phase involved developing a mathematical model of the decision-maker's judgement and led to a simpler, more effective and easier to use system.     

An Expert System Framework for Economic Evaluation of Machining Operation Planning

Recognising the importance of combining manufacturing and management systems for machining operation planning, this paper presents a new methodology for the evaluation of economic aspects in an operation plan. To ensure that the quality of machined parts satisfies the required specifications, the manufacturing system acts as an alternative generator that provides meaningful and practical plans. Through cost analysis, the variable, fixed, and total costs associated with the machining operation are quantitatively determined. The management system, which functions as an evaluation mechanism, then selects the optimal plan based on the defined goal. The proposed methodology has been applied in the framework design of an expert system. The program establishes a sequence of machining operation planning and searches for the optimal plan. This optimal plan integrates considerations from both managers and production engineers, and balances their needs for efficient machining of a quality product.     

Assessment of Manufacturing System Reliability: A Case Study

Reduction of unproductive work-in-process (WIP) inventory has been a subject of global concern lately. Detailed examination often reveals that such unproductive WIP is the result of a low manufacturing system reliability (MSR). The impact of poor MSR is felt all the more in industries where material cost constitutes a significant portion of the total manufacturing cost. Guided by these considerations, in this paper a case study is reported wherein an analysis has been made to assess MSR in a multinational switchgear industry located in Western India. The paper provides a few practical guidelines towards maintaining a certain level of MSR by suitably adjusting factors like utilization level of machines, utilization level of tools, tool down-time, mean production rate per tool, etc. Detailed sensitivity analysis on the simulation results has also been presented, which is believed to help substantially in decisions related to the finer adjustments of these factors.     

A Probabilistic Expert System for Automatic Musical Accompaniment

This article presents methodology that allows a computer to play the role of musical accompanist in a nonimprovised musical composition for soloist and accompaniment. The modeling of the accompaniment incorporates a number of distinct knowledge sources including timing information extracted in real-time from the soloist's acoustic signal, an understanding of the soloist's interpretation learned from rehearsals, and prior knowledge that guides the accompaniment toward musically plausible renditions. The solo and accompaniment parts are represented collectively as a large number of Gaussian random variables with a specified conditional independence structure—a Bayesian belief network. Within this framework a principled and computationally feasible method for generating real-time accompaniment is presented that incorporates the relevant knowledge sources. The EM algorithm is used to adapt the accompaniment to the soloist's interpretation through a series of rehearsals. A demonstration is provided from J.S. Bach's Cantata 12.     

Using an Expert System to Monitor an Automatic Stock Control System

The theory of the control of stock is well understood, and a large number of firms use automatic stock control and ordering techniques as a major part of their inventory control systems. However, the effectiveness of such automatic stock control systems depends on the correct selection of system parameters for each item in the inventory and on the accurate reporting of information. It is not unusual for errors to be made in both the selection of parameters and the entry of data, and regular failures of either can cause severe problems in stock control. It is generally difficult for a human stock controller to discover errors quickly because of the large number of items that is usually found in a company inventory. This paper describes the use of an expert system to examine stock records and diagnose anomalies in the data provided or parameters applied to individual items in a stock control system. The expert system ‘reasons’ from symptoms such as reports from the forecasting system or high stock levels, to defects in the stock model used or data-collection processes, and from there to possible remedial action. Results are presented for runs of the expert system on a simulated stock control system.     

Toward an Algebra Acquisition Support System: A Study Based on Using Graphic Calculators in the Classroom

This article discusses the results of a study that focused on using graphic calculators. The algebraic code of the calculator was used to introduce 11- to 12-year-old students to algebraic language as a tool for modeling and solving problems, relating this to their previous arithmetical experience and their evolving use of symbolic language. This study provided empirical evidence for the potential of conceiving algebra as a language and teaching it as a language-in-use, supported by the graphic calculator. The teaching approach was based on Bruner's (1983) research on natural language acquisition. Bruner claimed that natural language is taught and that the adult shapes the environment such that children can learn the rudiments of their mother tongue through its use, without needing to know syntactical rules and definitions. The main aim of this study was to investigate the outcomes of an algebra learning scheme based on Bruner's theory of language acquisition.     

Toward an Algebra Acquisition Support System: A Study Based on Using Graphic Calculators in the Classroom

This article discusses the results of a study that focused on using graphic calculators. The algebraic code of the calculator was used to introduce 11- to 12-year-old students to algebraic language as a tool for modeling and solving problems, relating this to their previous arithmetical experience and their evolving use of symbolic language. This study provided empirical evidence for the potential of conceiving algebra as a language and teaching it as a language-in-use, supported by the graphic calculator. The teaching approach was based on Bruner's (1983) research on natural language acquisition. Bruner claimed that natural language is taught and that the adult shapes the environment such that children can learn the rudiments of their mother tongue through its use, without needing to know syntactical rules and definitions. The main aim of this study was to investigate the outcomes of an algebra learning scheme based on Bruner's theory of language acquisition.     

基于PPC-GRA的工程项目评标决策方法研究

提出了一种基于PPC-GRA的工程项目评标决策方法,以灰色关联(GRA)为中心模型,以投影寻踪(PPC)为辅助模型,同时采用实码加速遗传算法求解投影寻踪模型以确定指标权重,并以此为基础计算各投标方案的灰色关联度,通过比较其大小确定各方案的优劣排序.最后通过实例验证了方法的可行性和合理性,为一般的工程项目评标提供决策参考.     

改进的神经网络综合评价模型研究

针对神经网络综合评价模型的解释缺失和信息损失问题,提出了一种引入专家系统和模糊系统的改进模型,模型利用专家系统提供评价结果的合理解释,利用模糊系统减少评价结果的信息损失,旨在提高评价结果的准确性和可信度.讨论了模型的定义和原理,通过模拟验证后,将改进的神经网络综合评价模型应用于大气环境承载力评价,以期为衡量社会经济发展和大气环境的协调程度提供一定参考.     

Evaluation Methodologies: A System for Use

An increasing number of voluntary organizations are required to have their work and structures evaluated as a condition of funding. In response to this trend, a joint project is being undertaken by the Centre for Community Operational Research, at the University of Hull, and the Council for Voluntary Service National Association. In the light of the project work to date, this paper presents an analysis of the theoretical underpinnings of four types of evaluation and formulates a system of evaluation methodologies showing in what circumstances each can be most appropriately used.     

A Case Study in System Dynamics Optimization

This paper presents the use of optimization as a tool for policy analysis and design in system dynamics models, and presents a demonstration of its use on the ‘project model’ developed by G. P. Richardson and A. L. Pugh III in their book Introduction to System Dynamics Modelling with DYNAMO. The use of optimization to design parameters, table functions and new model structure is shown to produce a very significantly improved performance for this model compared to conventional approaches.

     

面向辅助决策的宏观经济监测预警系统研究

本文以决策支持系统中四库结构理念、智能理念和群决策理念为基础,综合运用宏观经济景气监测理论、计量经济学模型和人工智能技术等方法,分析了面向辅助决策的宏观经济监测预警系统需求、构建了系统解决方案、描述了系统建设过程.依据本文研究成果而建立的中国宏观经济监测预警系统可以快速、准确地反映我国宏观经济运行态势,在经济景气监测、经济预测、政策模拟等方面表现良好,能够为相关部门制定宏观经济政策提供很好的辅助决策支持.     

系统协同发展程度的DEA评价研究

协同发展是区域经济得以顺利、快速发展的客观要求和前提条件;是可持续发展基础性、前提性因素和实现手段.系统协同发展不是即生的,它是通过对原有系统不断的诊断、调整、评价,周而复始逐步实现的.对系统协同发展程度的评价是系统实现协同发展的前提、指导和路径.借助于DEA的方法,从系统协同发展的内容上,给出“协同”和“发展”的评价方法;从系统的结构上,给出系统内和系统间的“协同”和“发展”评价方法.     

系统协同发展程度的DEA评价研究

协同发展是区域经济得以顺利、快速发展的客观要求和前提条件;是持续发展基础性、前提性因素和实现手段。系统协同发展不是即生的,它是通过对原有系统不断的诊断、调整、评价,周而复始逐步实现的。对系统协同发展程度的评价是系统实现协同发展的前提、指导和路径。本借助于DEA的方法,从系统协同发展的内容上,给出“协同”和“发展”的评价方法;从系统的结构上,给出系统内和系统间的“协同”和“发展”评价方法。     

Multi-Decision-Makers Equalizer: A Multiobjective Decision Support System for Multiple Decision-Makers

In this paper we present a decision support system that helps to solve multiobjective decision problems considering a multi decision-makers framework. By an iterative procedure this system looks for a single solution that satisfies all decision-makers equally. The negotiation process requires that each decision-maker trade certain benefits in some of the objectives being analyzed for benefits in others. Finally a compromise solution should be obtained.