On the Nature of OR — Entering the Fray

In 1980 a seminar of operational researchers and practitioners from a variety of different countries concluded that there was a remarkable consensus about the way that the process of operational research and systems analysis should be understood and practised. Since then the development of new methods has continued apace, stimulated by interaction with the social sciences and paradigms other than natural science. This paper enters the debate, started in this journal, about the nature of OR's status as science or technology. It recognizes the historic claims of science on OR, but it suggests that for ‘private’ consumption, technology will prove more fruitful, and for ‘public’ consumption practitioners will increasingly adopt the label ‘consultant’. Ackoff's original six-step method of OR is updated to reflect current OR practice. The process suggested acknowledges the importance of context, socio-political factors and the growing role of facilitation.     

Model and Situation Specific O.R. Methods: Risk Engineering Reliability Analysis of an L.N.G. Facility

A decision situation and model-specific O.R. method developed for reliability analysis of an Arctic liquid natural gas facility is outlined. It was developed by modifying a decision situation and model-specific O.R. method developed earlier for time (schedule or programme) risk analysis of offshore North Sea projects. The role and value of such methods is discussed in relation to general O.R. methods and specific techniques like C.P.M./PERT.     

The Blackett Memorial Lecture 18 November 1997

It is argued that movement toward the ‘control’ aspects of management should be effected to expand OR/MS activities beyond their present (almost exclusive) emphasis on ‘planning’ functions. This will involve increasing the amount of empirical-inferential approaches to research (based on ex-post data) as one way to help bring this about. Examples of such empirical-inferential research activities in OR/MS are supplied by reference to the early (founding) work of PMS Blackett and others on high-level policy problems during World War II. Extensions to the control function are evidenced in the work of Robert Fetter and others in the development of Diagnostic Related Groups on which the Prospective Payment Systems are based with large and important impacts on the health care delivery systems in the USA as well as other countries. Other examples covered include the use of OR concepts in the early ‘turnaround’ of Federal Express from failure to success. Other new methods will nevertheless be needed to extend and improve presently available OR/MS approaches. Some of these possibilities are illustrated with Data Envelopment Analysis. Ways to combine DEA with commonly used statistical methods are described to show how new and old methods may be combined to further enhance their power and range. Similar relations of DEA to other OR/MS approaches are now being studied, some of which are presently occurring with ‘fuzzy sets’ and ‘multiple objective programming.’     

Model validation in operations research

Numerous articles have appeared in the literature expressing different degrees of concern with the methodology of OR in general and with the validation of OR models in particular. Suggestions have been formulated to remove some of the shortcomings of the methodology as currently practised and to introduce modifications in the approach because of the changing nature of the problems tackled. Advances in modeling capabilities and solution techniques have also had considerable impact on the way validation is perceived. Large scale computer-based mathematical models and especially simulation models have brought new dimensions to the notion of validation. Terms like ‘confidence’, ‘credibility and reliability’, ‘model assessment and evaluation’, ‘usefulness and usability of the model’ have become rather common. This paper is an attempt, through an interpretation of the literature, to put model validation and related issues in a framework that may be of use both to model-builders and to decision-makers.     

Soft with a hard centre: discrete-event simulation in facilitation

Discrete event simulation is normally described as a ‘hard’ OR technique. This may not, however, always be the case. An example of a simulation of a user support helpline is described which, it is argued, has many of the traits of a ‘soft’ OR intervention. In particular, the study involved a facilitated discussion around a simulation model about possible improvements to a problem situation. The nature of the intervention is considered from both a methodological and paradigmatic perspective, and conclusions are drawn about where the intervention lies on a ‘hard’ to ‘soft’ continuum. It is argued that ‘soft’ issues need to be subsumed into the prescribed methodology for discrete-event simulation.     

On the nature of OR: taking stock

This paper argues that OR, having reached its maturity, must now play to its strengths. In strategic terms this means competing in those areas where OR's core competences can be brought to bear. Using a competence model it is suggested that OR's core products are (i) the development and implementation of the quantitative, algorithmic ‘smart bits’ and (ii) the ‘helpful ways’ of managing intervention processes. These core products are supported and sustained by three core competences labelled process, analytic, and context. Individuals and small groups of practitioners develop ‘strands of practice’ and larger groups ‘webs of practice’ on the basis of their core competences. It is argued that this is giving rise to the emergence of three archetypes of OR service, namely the OR technical consultancy, the OR process consultancy, and the full service OR consultancy. Both the technical and process consulting are built around ‘strands of practice’ of individuals and find their natural home in small service providers. The full service OR consulting practice, in the past located in internal OR groups, will in the future be located within the large management consultancies, which are capable of managing ‘webs of practice’. The implications for the worlds of OR practice and academia are examined.     

Writing practitioner case studies to help behavioural OR researchers ground their theories: application of the mangle perspective

Behavioural research into the practice of OR needs to be grounded. Case studies written by practitioners can potentially help address this need but currently most do not. The paper explores a way of describing OR projects that place the emphasis on the ‘actors’ who provide the motivating force and the consequences of their actions. The ‘mangle’ perspective focuses on the dynamic intertwining of people, technology and concepts; this can provide the basis for an insightful narrative describing the reality of the project in terms of the planned approach, the problems met and the outcomes. Two examples are given, one of a conventional model building exercise, the second of a ‘soft OR’ intervention: both describe projects conducted by practitioners for commercial purposes. It is concluded that, by using the mangle perspective, the OR case writer can winnow the wheat from the chaff in order to write a succinct informative narrative, a narrative that could be utilized by behavioural OR (BOR) researchers. It is further concluded that BOR researchers should engage with ‘practice theory’ to deepen their understanding of what actually happens in projects.     

A survey of OR utilization in Greece

A recent survey concerning OR utilization in firms and public organizations in Greece showed a rather poor profile. The survey covered 20 big organizations including the National Defense General Staff, national enterprises of public utilities, banks and firms from the textile, cement, oil, construction and other industries. Only a few of these organizations are using OR to a significant degree. The rest reported ‘poor’ or ‘no’ use of OR.Research/implementation problems most frequently appearing in public sector organizations include lack of data, insufficient qualified personnel and unfavorable attitude towards cooperation by affected parties. In private firms, the need for quick solutions and the use of OR analysts in line functions quite often imply the use of a ‘rule of thumb’ rather than a mathematical OR technique. In addition, OR study results quite often do not get implemented. One of the reasons is resistance by the affected parties, considering any proposal for reorganization put forward by other parties as a threat.The use of OR has proven beneficial for the using firm or organization. These benefits, however, are not as great as one might expect, due to the problems mentioned above. The future growth of OR utilization in Greece will depend on developments concerning the education of managers in OR methods, creation of OR groups in firms that will seek solutions to real-world, worth-while problems, publicizing successful OR applications, active support by top management, reforms in the educational system etc. The real push for OR utilization in Greece will come from drastic changes in administrative practices, which are directly related to the socioeconomic developments in the country.     

Refocusing upstream: Operational Research for population health

This paper examines the potential for the application of OR methods to ‘upstream’ problems in health sector planning. These address the underlying causes of ill health, and stand in contrast to ‘downstream’ health service planning which addresses the consequences of ill health. The paper reviews the emergence, globally and locally, of recognition of the importance of upstream planning and policy formation for the health sectors of both developed and developing countries. It presents examples of the use of OR techniques in upstream health planning, with particular illustrations taken from the area of health impact assessment. It argues for a fuller appreciation of the potential contribution of OR in this and in other areas of upstream health sector planning.     

Frameworks of Inquiry: OR Practice Across the Hard—Soft Divide

The growing interest in understanding the practice of OR has, not unnaturally, tended to concentrate upon experience with those ‘soft’ methodologies which address both process and content management issues. This paper uses a detailed account of one practitioner's work in a ‘traditional’ area of OR (linear programming) to demonstrate how process-related issues are handled there, and argues that more extensive reporting of such conventional practice is essential for the health of the discipline. In particular, it suggests that an emphasis on discussing the development of working relationships between OR practitioners and their clients might usefully supplant the contemporary emphasis on the ‘project’.     

Recent Developments in Critical Management Science

For much of its history management science had a quantitative and technical emphasis. More recently, there has been a move towards more subjective approaches such as ‘soft OR’ and ‘soft systems’. Currently, there is interest in ‘critical management science’ drawing on critical theory, particularly the work of Habermas. This paper reviews developments in critical management science, in particular critiques of traditional and ‘soft’ management science; Jackson and Keys' system of systems methodology; critical management science methodologies and the problem of power in bringing about change; and the postmodernist critique.     

OR in strategic land-use planning

An important historic strategic application of OR has been in the field of land-use and development plan production. Changes in Government policy and legislation have led to varying levels of interest in plan production. Three post-war cycles of ‘enthusiasm for plans’ can be identified. Whilst the first was rooted very much in the Architectural Design tradition, the second led to significant developments in OR, with far wider application. Subsequent reduced Governmental enthusiasm for ‘Development Plan production’ led to considerable atrophy of relevant skills in the planning community, including those derived from OR. However, the current ‘third period of post-war enthusiasm for planning’, reinforced by environmental concerns, has revived the need for relevant skills. It is suggested that, whilst the deficit in skills and their application remains high, there are some encouraging signs. Moreover, substantial progress in the field of ‘soft OR’ offers opportunities to both the OR and planning communities.     

The use of multimethodology in practice—results of a survey of practitioners

There is now a vast range of techniques and methodologies, both hard and soft, available to the OR/MS practitioner. After a period of concern about methodology choice, ie ‘which method when’, we are now moving towards a pluralistic approach of combining together several methods within an intervention—multimethodology. This paper reports on a survey of OR/MS practitioners to discover the extent of multimethodology usage and which particular combinations are most commonly utilised.     

The impact of contingency factors on validation of problem structuring methods

Although much has been written about validating Decision support systems andother ‘hard’ OR models, less has been written about validating‘soft’ OR models. This article seeks to determine which contingencyfactors known to influence DSS validation are also important factors influencingproblem structuring methods (PSM) validation. In addition, after consultationwith PSM experts other contingency factors influencing PSM validation areproposed. Evidence from these PSM experts concerning the levels of influence ofthese factors is used to support proposals for a contingency approach to PSMvalidation.     

The role of operational research in organizational decision making

An increase in the complexity of modern organisations and their interactions with the environment and each other has lead to a corresponding increase in the complexity of the organizational decision making process and the various factors on which decisions need to be based. Although there is currently much debate amongst both OR academics and practitioners as to how OR should respond to this increase in complexity the public manifestations of this debate have been confined largely to academics talking to each other.This paper is intended to contribute to a rectification of this situation by indicating how OR is currently used in one particular large, bureaucratic, high technology organization, and how it is spontaneously evolving to meet the demands of increased complexity. This discussion is based on an empirical study, and on experience of the author of OR in this and other similar organizations.It is concluded that very few major decisions appear to be directly influenced by OR studies although the latter are frequently used in a ‘justification’ role to support decisions already taken. An increase in awareness is however becoming apparent of the many indirect benefits that may accrue to the organization from the OR process. The nature of these indirect benefits and the ways in which they might be increased are discussed.     

Overcoming the barriers: a qualitative study of simulation adoption in the NHS

This paper addresses a key issue in the health OR literature, namely the apparent failure of OR modelling to become embedded and widely implemented within healthcare organisations. The research presented here is a case study to evaluate the adoption of one particular simulation modelling tool, Scenario Generator (S:G), which was developed by the SIMUL8 Corporation in a PPI partnership with the UK's National Health Service (NHS) Institute for Innovation and Improvement. The study involved semi-structured interviews with employees of 28 Primary Care Trusts who had all been engaged in some way with the initiative, with participants classified as ‘Not Started’, ‘Given Up’ and ‘Actively Using’. This paper presents a brief summary of barriers and facilitators to the successful use of the S:G software, but its main purpose is to focus more broadly on factors influencing the successful adoption of simulation tools in general within healthcare organisations. The insights gained in this study are relevant to improving the uptake of OR modelling in general within the NHS.     

A Language-Action Approach to Operational Research

This paper results from a collaboration between two academics, one a social psychologist who has explored creative work in engineering product design, the other engaged in the application of ‘soft’ methods in OR, but with a background in engineering. Much of the new thinking in OR is described in terms of a language-action perspective which is prominent in studies of computer supported work, negotiation, and other forms of discursive action. The perspective is used to examine some of the tasks needing to be undertaken if OR is to shift from a concern with social engineering to a concern with reflective social action. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of dilemmas, the growth of commitment, and the assessment of methods. It is concluded that, if OR makes the analysis of cognitive and political processes part of the core of the subject, it may become an epistemic subject with wide application to organisational decision-making.     

Beyond methodology choice: critical systems thinking as critically systemic discourse

Professional competence in applied disciplines such as OR/MS requires both technical expertise and critically reflective skills. Yet, a widespread misconception has taken hold of the OR/MS community: ‘critical’ and ‘emancipatory’ systems methodologies are opposed to ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ ones as if they were sensible alternatives. Accordingly, adequate ‘methodology choice’ is now widely considered a key condition of reflective professional practice; critical systems thinking (CST) is understood to deal mainly with this issue. The present paper argues that this conception of CST is neither theoretically sound nor conducive to reflective practice. An examination of the two major current strands of CST suggests some basic requirements of an alternative conception: (1) Reflective practice depends more on a framework of critical argumentation and discourse than on a framework of methodology choice. (2) A well-conceived discursive systems approach will give a proper place to the public sphere. (3) The much-discussed emancipatory orientation of CST inheres in the methodological requirements of discourse rather than in an arbitrary ‘commitment’ on the part of the systems practitioner. (4) Systemic boundary critique—the methodological core concept of critical systems heuristics (CSH)—allows us to translate these requirements into practical methodology. (5) Contrary to present conceptions of methodological pluralism or ‘complementarism’, boundary critique must not be subordinated to methodology choice, for it is constitutive of all critical inquiry and practice. These considerations lead to a reconstitution of CST, and to a new view of reflective professional practice in general, as critically systemic discourse.     

The directed polymer in a random environment

A continuous space/time approximation of the well known ‘directed polymer’ problem is considered. Connection between the ‘Helmholtz Free Energy’ and the ‘Two Walker problem’ is shown. Rigorous proof of the superdiffusive mean squared displacement exponent of 4/3 is given when there is one space dimension and one time dimension. Asymptotically diffusive behaviour of c(k)tis shown when there are one ‘time’ and two ‘space’ dimensions. For higher dimensions, the behaviour is diffusive and the mean squared displacement is asymptotically t d. These results hold for all temperature, because the phase transition in the discrete model is no longer present in the continuous model; the renormalization procedure has set the transition temperature to k _crit =0The joint distribution is also shown to be asymptotically sub-Gaussian for all dimensions and all temperatures (in the sense that the p ^thmoments as a function of pincrease more slowly than the moments of a Gaussian distribution). The ‘Helmholtz Free Energy’ is also calculated for this model and the quenched and annealed free energies are shown to be identical for all temperature     

Supporting strategic conversations: the significance of a quantitative model building process

This paper reports on the use of a quantitative system dynamics simulation model building process that followed on from a ‘soft OR’ strategy making intervention with a top management team. The work was carried out for the Chief Constable and top team of a UK police force. The output of the ‘soft OR’ strategy making process provided the reason for, and so focus of, the simulation model. The focus of the strategic conversation was on exploring the tension between the supply of resources (in this case police officers) and the demands placed on those officers. The project involved a series of strategic conversations with members of the top team that were stimulated through the process of building a system dynamics model. The process was facilitated by two modellers—one focussing on managing the strategic enquiry, while the other considered the implications of the conversation for the construction of the system dynamics model. Through the process of gradually building the system dynamics model, a number of issues and lessons were raised for the development and delivery of effective strategy making and the strategic management of public organisations. In addition there were implications for operational research model building processes, especially when operating at senior levels and within a strategic context.