Hit or miss: A decision support system framework for signing new musical talent

In the music industry, the process of signing new musical talent is one of the most complex decision-making problems. The decision, which is generally made by an artist and repertoire (A&R) team, involves consideration of various quantitative and qualitative criteria, and usually results in a low success rate. We conducted a series of mental model interviews with the aim of developing a decision support framework for A&R teams. This framework was validated by creating a decision support system that utilises multi-criteria decision analysis to support decision-making. Our framework and subsequent implementation of the decision support system involving decision rule and weighted sum methods show an improvement in the ability to analyse and decide on greater amounts of talent. This paper serves as a building block for developing systems to aid in this complex decision-making problem.     

Modelling and decision support in physiology and medicine: a methodological framework with lllustration

This paper presents a methodological framework for modelling that has found wide application in the complex domains of physiology and medicine. The processes of model validation are centrally embedded within this framework. The parallelism between modelling per se and the development of model-based decision support systems is then considered, showing that it is possible to devise a unified methodological framework which encompasses the requirements both of model validation and decision support system evaluation. The applicability of the framework is demonstrated in the validation of a mathematical model of blood glucose dynamics; and in the development and evaluation of decision support systems such as those which are aimed at addressing the problem of advising the insulin-dependent diabetic patient on the adjustment of insulin dosage     

A framework for analysing decisions under risk

The main objective is to present a framework for analysing decisions under risk. The nature of much information available to decision makers is vague and imprecise, be it information for human managers in organisations or for process agents in a distributed computer environment. Some approaches address the problem of uncertainty, but many of them concentrate more on representation and less on evaluation. The emphasis in this paper is on evaluation and even though the representation used is that of probability theory, other well-established formalisms can be used. The approach allows the decision maker to be as deliberately imprecise as he feels is natural and provides him with the means for expressing varying degrees of imprecision in the input sentences. The framework we present is intended to be tolerant and to provide means for evaluating decision situations using several decision rules beside the conventional maximisation of the expected utility.     

An integrative evaluation framework for intelligent decision support systems

Evaluation of the overall effectiveness of decision support systems (DSS) has been a research topic since the early 1980s. As artificial intelligence methods have been incorporated into systems to create intelligent decision support systems (IDSS), researchers have attempted to quantify the value of the additional capabilities. Despite the useful and relevant insights generated by previous research, existing evaluation methodologies offer only a fragmented and incomplete view of IDSS value and the contribution of its technical infrastructure. This paper proposes an integrative, multiple criteria IDSS evaluation framework through a model that links the decision value of an IDSS to both the outcome from, and process of, decision making and down to specific components of the IDSS. The proposed methodology provides the designer and developer specific guidance on the intelligent tools most useful for a specific user with a particular decision problem. The proposed framework is illustrated by evaluating an actual IDSS that coordinates management of urban infrastructures.     

Reusable components in decision tree induction algorithms

We propose a generic decision tree framework that supports reusable components design. The proposed generic decision tree framework consists of several sub-problems which were recognized by analyzing well-known decision tree induction algorithms, namely ID3, C4.5, CART, CHAID, QUEST, GUIDE, CRUISE, and CTREE. We identified reusable components in these algorithms as well as in several of their partial improvements that can be used as solutions for sub-problems in the generic decision tree framework. The identified components can now be used outside the algorithm they originate from. Combining reusable components allows the replication of original algorithms, their modification but also the creation of new decision tree induction algorithms. Every original algorithm can outperform other algorithms under specific conditions but can also perform poorly when these conditions change. Reusable components allow exchanging of solutions from various algorithms and fast design of new algorithms. We offer a generic framework for component-based algorithms design that enhances understanding, testing and usability of decision tree algorithm parts.     

Decision making using multiple models

Many real world business situations require classification decisions that must often be made on the basis of judgment and past performance. In this paper, we propose a decision framework that combines multiple models or techniques in a complementary fashion to provide input to managers who make such decisions on a routine basis. We illustrate the framework by specifically using five different classification techniques – neural networks, discriminant analysis, quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MNL). Application of the decision framework to an actual retail department store data shows that it is most useful in those cases where uncertainty is high and a priori classification cannot be made with a high degree of reliability. The proposed framework thus enhances the value of exception reporting, and provides managers additional insights into the phenomenon being studied.     

A case-based fuzzy multicriteria decision support model for tropical cyclone forecasting

This paper proposes a multi-stage framework for intelligent decision support. The proposed framework integrates case-based reasoning and fuzzy multicriteria decision making techniques. It potentially leads to more accurate, flexible and efficient retrieval of alternatives that are most similar and most useful to the current decision situation. Additionally, the framework provides intelligent assistance in articulating domain expert's preferences through outranking relations. We illustrated the proposed approach in the context of tropical cyclone prediction. Ten years of historical observation data about tropical cyclones was represented within fuzzy multicriteria decision-making problem. We describe a prototype intelligent decision support system, which helps the forecaster in retrieving best-fitted solutions in terms of both usefulness and similarity to the current observed case.     

Some issues in mathematical modelling of multiple criteria decision-making problems

Models for analyzing and solving multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems are difficult to evaluate and compare, because they are intended for diverse orderings of a set of feasible alternatives. These models are based on a variety of assumptions about the decision maker's preferences and use different types of preference information. In this paper, a conceptual framework is developed for evaluating and comparing discrete alternative MCDM models available for a given decision situation. The procedure employed in the framework guides the user through an analysis of the decision situation making it possible for a decision maker or analyst to select the most appropriate MCDM model from among several alternative feasible models.     

Risk analysis and decision theory: A bridge

The risk-triplet approach pioneered by Kaplan and Garrick is the keystone of operational risk analysis. We perform a sharp embedding of the elements of this framework into the one of formal decision theory, which is mainly concerned with the methodological and modeling issues of decision making. The aim of this exercise is twofold: on the one hand, it gives operational risk analysis a direct access to the rich toolbox that decision theory has developed, in the last decades, in order to deal with complex layers of uncertainty; on the other, it exposes decision theory to the challenges of operational risk analysis, thus providing it with broader scope and new stimuli.     

Gradient boosting for convex cone predict and optimize problems

Prediction models are traditionally optimized independently from decision-based optimization. Conversely, a ‘smart predict then optimize’ (SPO) framework optimizes prediction models to minimize downstream decision regret. In this paper we present dboost, the first general purpose implementation of smart gradient boosting for ‘predict, then optimize’ problems. The framework supports convex quadratic cone programming and gradient boosting is performed by implicit differentiation of a custom fixed-point mapping. Experiments comparing with state-of-the-art SPO methods show that dboost can further reduce out-of-sample decision regret.     

Naiveté and sophistication in dynamic inconsistency

This paper introduces a general framework for dealing with dynamic inconsistency in the context of Markov decision problems. It decouples and examines concepts that are often entwined in the literature. It distinguishes between the decision maker and her various temporal selves, and between the beliefs and intentions of the selves. The creation of a unified formalism to deal with dynamic inconsistency allows for the introduction of a hybrid decision maker, who is naive sometimes, sophisticated at others. Such a hybrid decision maker can be used to model situations where type determination is endogenous. Interestingly, the analysis of hybrid types indicates that self-deception can be optimal.     

A framework for decision support systems for scheduling problems

Considering a decision support system as a tool where executive's judgment can be included along with the mathematical tool kit of the management scientist, this paper shows the need to include problem management as an integral component of the decision support system for scheduling problems. A methodology based on the resolution of conflicts among various constraints in scheduling problems is proposed to implement the problem management system in a decision support system for these problems. The paper concludes with some guidelines to create a workable framework for providing effective decision support to solve scheduling problems and the identification of some fruitful directions for future research.     

Scenario-based portfolio selection of investment projects with incomplete probability and utility information

In the selection of investment projects, it is important to account for exogenous uncertainties (such as macroeconomic developments) which may impact the performance of projects. These uncertainties can be addressed by examining how the projects perform across several scenarios; but it may be difficult to assign well-founded probabilities to such scenarios, or to characterize the decision makers’ risk preferences through a uniquely defined utility function. Motivated by these considerations, we develop a portfolio selection framework which (i) uses set inclusion to capture incomplete information about scenario probabilities and utility functions, (ii) identifies all the non-dominated project portfolios in view of this information, and (iii) offers decision support for rejection and selection of projects. The proposed framework enables interactive decision support processes where the implications of additional probability and utility information or further risk constraints are shown in terms of corresponding decision recommendations.     

Probabilistic decision graphs for optimization under uncertainty

This paper provides a survey on probabilistic decision graphs for modeling and solving decision problems under uncertainty. We give an introduction to influence diagrams, which is a popular framework for representing and solving sequential decision problems with a single decision maker. As the methods for solving influence diagrams can scale rather badly in the length of the decision sequence, we present a couple of approaches for calculating approximate solutions. The modeling scope of the influence diagram is limited to so-called symmetric decision problems. This limitation has motivated the development of alternative representation languages, which enlarge the class of decision problems that can be modeled efficiently. We present some of these alternative frameworks and demonstrate their expressibility using several examples. Finally, we provide a list of software systems that implement the frameworks described in the paper.     

Optimal inspection and perfect repair

Models are developed for decision making about monitoring andmaintenance of systems whose performance through time is describedby a general stochastic process. The system is monitored andpreventive and corrective maintenance actions are carried outin response to the observed system state. The decision processis simplified by using the maximum process as a decision variable.The models developed generalize age replacement models and othersimple maintenance strategies. The approach can deal with failuresthat prevent the system functioning further, and also failuresthat are defined by regulation or economic considerations. Attentionis restricted to perfect repair and inspection, but the structureprovides the framework for further developments.     

Probabilistic decision graphs for optimization under uncertainty

This paper provides a survey on probabilistic decision graphs for modeling and solving decision problems under uncertainty. We give an introduction to influence diagrams, which is a popular framework for representing and solving sequential decision problems with a single decision maker. As the methods for solving influence diagrams can scale rather badly in the length of the decision sequence, we present a couple of approaches for calculating approximate solutions. The modeling scope of the influence diagram is limited to so-called symmetric decision problems. This limitation has motivated the development of alternative representation languages, which enlarge the class of decision problems that can be modeled efficiently. We present some of these alternative frameworks and demonstrate their expressibility using several examples. Finally, we provide a list of software systems that implement the frameworks described in the paper.     

Assessing the of potential of e-business models: towards a framework for assisting decision-makers

Decision makers are faced with an enormous range of electronic business models from which to choose. The process of fully researching each of these models can prove daunting. Such research is a feature of what has been termed the “intelligence phase” of decision making. This phase is important as options excluded at this stage do not get considered at a later stage. This paper develops a prerequisites framework for use at the intelligence phase to exclude models that are incompatible with prevailing organisational and supply chain characteristics. The framework assesses the following characteristics: economic control, supply chain integration, functional integration, innovation and input sourcing. The paper utilises a series of five point Likert scales to operationalise these characteristics so that they can be used by decision makers to efficiently manage “intelligence phase” activities.     

A comparison of multiple criteria analysis techniques for water resource management

Multiple criteria analysis (MCA) is a framework for evaluating decision options against multiple criteria. Numerous techniques for solving an MCA problem are available. This paper applies MCA to six water management decision problems. The MCA methods tested include weighted summation, range of value, PROMTHEE II, Evamix and compromise programming. We show that different MCA methods were in strong agreement with high correlations amongst rankings. In the few cases where strong disagreement between MCA methods did occur it was due to presence of mixed ordinal-cardinal data in the evaluation matrix. The results suggest that whilst selection of the MCA technique is important more emphasis is needed on the initial structuring of the decision problem, which involves choosing criteria and decision options.     

Graph coloring with decision diagrams

Mathematical Programming - We introduce an iterative framework for solving graph coloring problems using decision diagrams. The decision diagram compactly represents all possible color classes,...