Fuzzy hierarchical analysis

This paper extends hierarchical analysis to the case where the participants are allowed to employ fuzzy ratios in place of exact ratios. If a person considers alternative A more important than alternative B, then the ratio used might be approximately 3 to 1, or between 2 to 1, and 4 to 1, or at most 5 to 1. The pairwise comparison of the issues and the criteria in the hierarchy produce fuzzy positive reciprocal matrices. The geometric mean method is employed to calculate the fuzzy weights for each fuzzy matrix, and these are combined in the usual manner to determine the final fuzzy weights for the alternatives. The final fuzzy weights are used to rank the alternatives from highest to lowest. The highest ranking contains all the undominated issues. The procedure easily extends to the situation where many experts are utilized in the ranking process, or to the case of missing data. Two examples are presented showing the final fuzzy weights and the final ranking.     

A fast method of ranking alternatives using fuzzy numbers

We show a very fast method of ranking alternatives using fuzzy numbers discussed in [1] and [2].     

Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search and Variable Neighbourhood Search for the minimum labelling spanning tree problem

This paper studies heuristics for the minimum labelling spanning tree (MLST) problem. The purpose is to find a spanning tree using edges that are as similar as possible. Given an undirected labelled connected graph, the minimum labelling spanning tree problem seeks a spanning tree whose edges have the smallest number of distinct labels. This problem has been shown to be NP-hard. A Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure (GRASP) and a Variable Neighbourhood Search (VNS) are proposed in this paper. They are compared with other algorithms recommended in the literature: the Modified Genetic Algorithm and the Pilot Method. Nonparametric statistical tests show that the heuristics based on GRASP and VNS outperform the other algorithms tested. Furthermore, a comparison with the results provided by an exact approach shows that we may quickly obtain optimal or near-optimal solutions with the proposed heuristics.     

Learning and transfer in dynamic decision environments

An important aspect of learning is the ability to transfer knowledge to new contexts. However, in dynamic decision tasks, such as bargaining, firefighting, and process control, where decision makers must make repeated decisions under time pressure and outcome feedback may relate to any of a number of decisions, such transfer has proven elusive. This paper proposes a two-stage connectionist model which hypothesizes that decision makers learn to identify categories of evidence requiring similar decisions as they perform in dynamic environments. The model suggests conditions under which decision makers will be able to use this ability to help them in novel situations. These predictions are compared against those of a one-stage decision model that does not learn evidence categories, as is common in many current theories of repeated decision making. Both models' predictions are then tested against the performance of decision makers in an Internet bargaining task. Both models correctly predict aspects of decision makers' learning under different interventions. The two-stage model provides closer fits to decision maker performance in a new, related bargaining task and accounts for important features of higher-performing decision makers' learning. Although frequently omitted in recent accounts of repeated decision making, the processes of evidence category formation described by the two-stage model appear critical in understanding the extent to which decision makers learn from feedback in dynamic tasks. Faison (Bud) Gibson is an Assistant Professor at College of Business, Eastern Michigan University. He has extensive experience developing and empirically testing models of decision behavior in dynamic decision environments.     

A technological,organisational, and environmental analysis of decision making methodologies and satisfaction in the context of IT induced business transformations

Although Operational Research (OR) has successfully provided many methodologies to address complex decision problems, in particular based on the rationality principle, there has been too little discussion regarding their limited consideration in IT evaluation practice and associated decision making satisfaction levels in an organisational context. The aim of this paper is to address these issues through providing a current account of diffusion and infusion of OR methodologies in IT decision making practice, and by analysing factors affecting decision making satisfaction from a Technological, Organisational, and Environmental (TOE) framework in the context of IT induced business transformations. We developed a structural equation model and conducted an empirical survey, which supported four out of five developed research hypotheses. Our results show that while Decision Support Systems (DSSs), holistic IT evaluation methods, and management support seem to positively affect individual satisfaction, legislative regulation has an adverse effect. Results also revealed a persistent methodology diffusion and infusion gap. The paper discusses implications in each of these aspects and presents opportunities for future work.     

Expanding Neighborhood GRASP for the Traveling Salesman Problem

In this paper, we present the application of a modified version of the well known Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure (GRASP) to the TSP. The proposed GRASP algorithm has two phases: In the first phase the algorithm finds an initial solution of the problem and in the second phase a local search procedure is utilized for the improvement of the initial solution. The local search procedure employs two different local search strategies based on 2-opt and 3-opt methods. The algorithm was tested on numerous benchmark problems from TSPLIB. The results were very satisfactory and for the majority of the instances the results were equal to the best known solution. The algorithm is also compared to the algorithms presented and tested in the DIMACS Implementation Challenge that was organized by David Johnson.     

Mining maximum consensus sequences from group ranking data

In the last decade, the problem of getting a consensus group ranking from all users’ ranking data has received increased attention due to its widespread applications. Previous research solved this problem by consolidating the opinions of all users, thereby obtaining an ordering list of all items that represent the achieved consensus. The weakness of this approach, however, is that it always produces a ranking list of all items, regardless of how many conflicts exist among users. This work rejects the forced agreement of all items. Instead, we define a new concept, maximum consensus sequences, which are the longest ranking lists of items that agree with the majority and disagree only with the minority. Based on this concept, algorithm MCS is developed to determine the maximum consensus sequences from users’ ranking data, and also to identify conflict items that need further negotiation. Extensive experiments are carried out using synthetic data sets, and the results indicate that the proposed method is computationally efficient. Finally, we discuss how the identified consensus sequences and conflict items information can be used in practice.     

The impact of DSS use and information load on errors and decision quality

This paper uses a laboratory experiment to examine the effect of DSS use on the decision maker’s error patterns and decision quality. The DSS used in our experiments is the widely used Expert Choice (EC) implementation of the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Perhaps surprisingly, our experiments do not provide general support for the often tacit assumption that the use of a DSS such as EC improves decision quality. Rather, we find that, whereas a DSS can help decision makers develop a better understanding of the essence of a decision problem and can reduce logical error (especially if the information load is high), it is also susceptible to introducing accidental effects such as mechanical errors. In some cases, as in our study, the accidental errors may outweigh the benefits of using a DSS, leading to lower quality decisions.     

The analytic hierarchy process in medical and health care decision making: A literature review

This paper presents a literature review of the application of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to important problems in medical and health care decision making. The literature is classified by year of publication, health care category, journal, method of analyzing alternatives, participants, and application type. Very few articles were published prior to 1988 and the level of activity has increased to about three articles per year since 1997. The 50 articles reviewed were classified in seven categories: diagnosis, patient participation, therapy/treatment, organ transplantation, project and technology evaluation and selection, human resource planning, and health care evaluation and policy. The largest number of articles was found in the project and technology evaluation and selection category (14) with substantial activity in patient participation (9), therapy/treatment (8), and health care evaluation and policy (8). The AHP appears to be a promising support tool for shared decision making between patient and doctor, evaluation and selection of therapies and treatments, and the evaluation of health care technologies and policies. We expect that AHP research will continue to be an important component of health care and medical research.     

Choice of the best alternative in case of a continuous set of states of nature-application of fuzzy numbers

On the basis of a known application of an order weighted averaging operator to the decision making in the case of a discrete set of states of nature, a general approach to the case of a continuous set of states of nature is proposed. The general approach encompasses various types of attitudes of the decision maker, expressed in the form of fuzzy numbers.     

Avoiding non-optimal management decisions by applying a three-person inspection game

An inspection game models a conflict situation between an inspector and an inspectee. The mathematical analysis aims to generate optimal behavior of the inspectee under the assumption that an undesirable action of the inspectee could otherwise be carried out strategically. In this paper the controller’s (inspector’s) particular job is to audit a manager’s (inspectee’s) decision and to submit a report to the company’s top managers for examination. Thus, a conflict as regards the choice of behavioral actions of the manager, the controller and the top management impends. Based on Fandel and Trockel (2011a) this modified inspection game is discussed here for the first time as a three-person game in the context of a manager’s faulty decision that will unnecessarily add to the company’s costs and that the top management understandably wishes to minimize. We will first examine the conditions under which a Nash equilibrium occurs in this three-person game in which poor management, poor monitoring and poor revision coincide. We will then examine the effects that the penalties and bonuses exert on the Nash equilibrium solution. We will find that penalties and bonuses can neutralize each other in their effects on the improved decision making by the manager and the controller.     

Do forecasts expressed as prediction intervals improve production planning decisions?

A number of studies have shown that providing point forecasts to decision makers can lead to improved production planning decisions. However, point forecasts do not convey information about the level of uncertainty that is associated with forecasts. In theory, the provision of prediction intervals, in addition to point forecasts, should therefore lead to further enhancements in decision quality. To test whether this is the case in practice, participants in an experiment were asked to decide on the production levels that were needed to meet the following week’s demand for a series of products. Either underproduction cost twice as much per unit as overproduction or vice versa. The participants were supplied with either a point forecast, a 50% prediction interval, or a 95% prediction interval for the following week’s demand. The prediction intervals did not improve the quality of the decisions and also reduced the propensity of the decision makers to respond appropriately to the asymmetry in the loss function. A simple heuristic is suggested to allow people to make more effective use of prediction intervals. It is found that applying this heuristic to 85% prediction intervals would lead to nearly optimal decisions.     

The affect heuristic

This paper introduces a theoretical framework that describes the importance of affect in guiding judgments and decisions. As used here, “affect” means the specific quality of “goodness” or “badness” (i) experienced as a feeling state (with or without consciousness) and (ii) demarcating a positive or negative quality of a stimulus. Affective responses occur rapidly and automatically—note how quickly you sense the feelings associated with the stimulus word “treasure” or the word “hate”. We argue that reliance on such feelings can be characterized as “the affect heuristic”. In this paper we trace the development of the affect heuristic across a variety of research paths followed by ourselves and many others. We also discuss some of the important practical implications resulting from ways that this heuristic impacts our daily lives.     

Decision making under uncertainty comprising complete ignorance and probability

This paper investigates a model of decision making under uncertainty comprising opposite epistemic states of complete ignorance and probability. In the first part, a new utility theory under complete ignorance is developed that combines Hurwicz–Arrow's theory of decision under ignorance with Anscombe–Aumann's idea of reversibility and monotonicity used to characterize subjective probability. The main result is a representation theorem for preference under ignorance by a particular one-parameter function – the τ-anchor utility function. In the second part, we study decision making under uncertainty comprising an ignorant variable and a probabilistic variable. We show that even if the variables are independent, they are not reversible in Anscombe–Aumann's sense. This insight leads to the development of a new proposal for decision under uncertainty represented by a preference relation that satisfies the weak order and monotonicity assumptions but rejects the reversibility assumption. A distinctive feature of the new proposal is that the certainty equivalent of a mapping from the state space of uncertain variables to the prize space depends on the order in which the variables are revealed. Explicit modeling of the order of variables explains some of the puzzles in multiple-prior model and the models for decision making with Dempster–Shafer belief function.     

A comparison of multiple criteria analysis techniques for water resource management

Multiple criteria analysis (MCA) is a framework for evaluating decision options against multiple criteria. Numerous techniques for solving an MCA problem are available. This paper applies MCA to six water management decision problems. The MCA methods tested include weighted summation, range of value, PROMTHEE II, Evamix and compromise programming. We show that different MCA methods were in strong agreement with high correlations amongst rankings. In the few cases where strong disagreement between MCA methods did occur it was due to presence of mixed ordinal-cardinal data in the evaluation matrix. The results suggest that whilst selection of the MCA technique is important more emphasis is needed on the initial structuring of the decision problem, which involves choosing criteria and decision options.     

The aggregation operations for decision making in probabilistic fuzzy environment

This paper deals with some important classes of aggregation operations on various kinds of sets applied to decision making problems.These operations are mainly based on general concepts such as triangular norms (t- and s-norms). In this paper we focus particularly on operations on probabilistic sets and their distribution function representation. The considerations are illustrated by means of numerical examples.     

Fuzzy relations for the analysis of traders’ preferences in an information market game

In this paper we focus on preference and decision data gathered during a computer-supported information market game in which 35 students participated during seven consecutive trading sessions. The participants’ individual preferences on the market shares are collected to calculate a collective preference ranking using the Borda social choice method. Comparing this preference ranking to the shares’ actual market ranking resulting from the participants’ trading, we find a statistically significant difference between both rankings. As the preferences established by market behavior cannot be adequately explained through a social choice rule, we propose an alternative explanation based on the herd behavior phenomenon where traders imitate the most successful trader in the market. Using a decision analysis technique based on fuzzy relations, we study the participants’ rankings of the best share in the market during 7 weeks and compare the most successful trader to the other traders. The results from our analysis show that a substantial number of traders is indeed following the market leader.     

Interactive fuzzy decision making method for solving bilevel programming problem

In this paper, an interactive fuzzy decision making method is proposed for solving bilevel programming problem. Introducing a new balance function, we consider the overall satisfactory balance between the leader and the follower. Then, a satisfactory solution can be obtained by the proposed method. Finally, numerical examples are reported to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method.