Local Whittle likelihood estimators and tests for non-Gaussian stationary processes

In this paper, we propose a local Whittle likelihood estimator for spectral densities of non-Gaussian processes and a local Whittle likelihood ratio test statistic for the problem of testing whether the spectral density of a non-Gaussian stationary process belongs to a parametric family or not. Introducing a local Whittle likelihood of a spectral density f _θ (λ) around λ, we propose a local estimator [^(q)] = [^(q)] (l){\hat{\theta } = \hat{\theta } (\lambda ) } of θ which maximizes the local Whittle likelihood around λ, and use f_{[^(q)] (l)} (l){f_{\hat{\theta } (\lambda )} (\lambda )} as an estimator of the true spectral density. For the testing problem, we use a local Whittle likelihood ratio test statistic based on the local Whittle likelihood estimator. The asymptotics of these statistics are elucidated. It is shown that their asymptotic distributions do not depend on non-Gaussianity of the processes. Because our models include nonlinear stationary time series models, we can apply the results to stationary GARCH processes. Advantage of the proposed estimator is demonstrated by a few simulated numerical examples.     

Innovations algorithm asymptotics for periodically stationary time series with heavy tails

The innovations algorithm can be used to obtain parameter estimates for periodically stationary time series models. In this paper we compute the asymptotic distribution for these estimates in the case where the underlying noise sequence has infinite fourth moment but finite second moment. In this case, the sample covariances on which the innovations algorithm are based are known to be asymptotically stable. The asymptotic results developed here are useful to determine which model parameters are significant. In the process, we also compute the asymptotic distributions of least squares estimates of parameters in an autoregressive model.     

Parameter estimation for a misspecified arma model with infinite variance innovations

We consider a general linear model , where the innovations Z_t belong to the domain of attraction of an α-stable law for α<2, so that neither Z_t nor X_t have a finite variance. We do not assume that (X_t) is a standardARMA process of the form φ(B)X_t=ϕ(B)Z_t, but we fit anARMA process of a given order to the data X₁,...,X_n by estimating the coefficients of φ and ϕ. Given that (X_t) is anARMA process, it has been proved that the Whittle estimator is a consistent estimator of the true coefficients of ϕ and φ. Moreover, it then has a heavytailed limit distribution and the rate of convergence is (n/logn)^1/α, which compares favorably with the L² situation with rate . In this note we study the limit properties of the Whittle estimator when the underlying model is not necessarily anARMA process. Under general conditions we show that the Whittle estimate converges in probability. It converges weakly to a distribution which does not have a finite moment of order a and the rate of convergence is again (n/logn)^1/α. We also give an analytic expression for the limit distribution. Proceedings of the XVI Seminar on Stability Problems for Stochastic Models, Part II, Eger, Hungary, 1994.     

NM-QELE for ARMA-GARCH models with non-Gaussian innovations

Although the quasi maximum likelihood estimator based on Gaussian density (Gaussian-QMLE) is widely used to estimate parameters in ARMA models with GARCH innovations (ARMA-GARCH models), it does not perform successfully when error distribution of ARMA-GARCH models is either skewed or leptokurtic. In order to circumvent such defects, Lee and Lee (submitted for publication) proposed the quasi maximum estimated-likelihood estimator using Gaussian mixture-based likelihood (NM-QELE) for GARCH models. In this paper, we adopt the NM-QELE method for estimating parameters in ARMA-GARCH models and demonstrate the validity of NM-QELE by verifying its consistency.     

Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation in GARCH processes when some coefficients are equal to zero

The asymptotic distribution of the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator is established for generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) processes, when the true parameter may have zero coefficients. This asymptotic distribution is the projection of a normal vector distribution onto a convex cone. The results are derived under mild conditions. For an important subclass of models, no moment condition is imposed on the GARCH process. The main practical implication of these results concerns the estimation of overidentified GARCH models.     

VALUE-AT-RISK的核估计理论

如何根据历史数据估计Value-at-Risk（VaR）;是风险分析与管理中一个重要的基本问题.木文基于非参数核估计方法,通过拟合实际数据过程的分布,构造了VaR的估计.在合适的相依数据条件下,证明了该估计量的渐近正态性,并给出了渐近方差的估计.由此表明:本文所构造的估计量不仅比参数模型具有更广泛的适应性,而且如同参数模型具有n~（-1/2）的收敛速度.本文假设的数据过程避免使用混合性,可很好地适用于金融管理中广泛应用的ARMA与GARCH模型族及非线性模型.     

Empirical likelihood for LAD estimators in infinite variance ARMA models

In this paper, we use an empirical likelihood method to construct confidence regions for the stationary ARMA(p,q) models with infinite variance. An empirical log-likelihood ratio is derived by the estimating equation of the self-weighted LAD estimator. It is proved that the proposed statistic has an asymptotic standard chi-squared distribution. Simulation studies show that in a small sample case, the performance of empirical likelihood method is better than that of normal approximation of the LAD estimator in terms of the coverage accuracy.     

On Estimating the Cumulant Generating Function of Linear Processes

We compare two estimates of the cumulant generating function of a stationary linear process. The first estimate is based on the empirical moment generating function. The second estimate uses the linear representation of the process and the empirical moment generating function of the innovations. Asymptotic expressions for the mean square errors are derived under short- and long-range dependence. For long-memory processes, the estimate based on the linear representation turns out to have a better rate of convergence. Thus, exploiting the linear structure of the process leads to an infinite gain in asymptotic efficiency.     

股票收益率和新息的尾部估计

利用极值理论来考虑上证综指收益率的尾部.为了选择合理的超越门限,采用平均剩余函数和De-Haan矩估计相结合的方法.在学生t分布和广义误差分布的新患假设下,用GARCH和EGARCH新息的ARMA模型拟合指数收益率,并且使用极值理论的极大似然方法估计模型残差的尾指,估计结果表明收益率的尾指和模型的残差尾指基本一致.     

Stable limits for sums of dependent infinite variance random variables

The aim of this paper is to provide conditions which ensure that the affinely transformed partial sums of a strictly stationary process converge in distribution to an infinite variance stable distribution. Conditions for this convergence to hold are known in the literature. However, most of these results are qualitative in the sense that the parameters of the limit distribution are expressed in terms of some limiting point process. In this paper we will be able to determine the parameters of the limiting stable distribution in terms of some tail characteristics of the underlying stationary sequence. We will apply our results to some standard time series models, including the GARCH(1, 1) process and its squares, the stochastic volatility models and solutions to stochastic recurrence equations.     

Nonparametric regression under dependent errors with infinite variance

We consider local least absolute deviation (LLAD) estimation for trend functions of time series with heavy tails which are characterised via a symmetric stable law distribution. The setting includes both causal stable ARMA model and fractional stable ARIMA model as special cases. The asymptotic limit of the estimator is established under the assumption that the process has either short or long memory autocorrelation. For a short memory process, the estimator admits the same convergence rate as if the process has the finite variance. The optimal rate of convergencen ^−2/5 is obtainable by using appropriate bandwidths. This is distinctly different from local least squares estimation, of which the convergence is slowed down due to the existence of heavy tails. On the other hand, the rate of convergence of the LLAD estimator for a long memory process is always slower thann ^−2/5 and the limit is no longer normal.     

On the use of the directional derivative in obtaining multivariate extreme values

Current use of the directional derivative appears, with notable exceptions such as Whittle (1971, 1973) and Vainberg (1973), to be limited largely to textbooks on advanced calculus, and to spaces of at most three dimensions. The present paper develops a calculus of the directional derivative for arbitrary finite dimensional vector spaces. Applications are made to classical maximum likelihood estimation in the case of the multivariate normal density and to other multivariate problems involving stationary points.     

Berry–Esseen Bounds for Standardized Subordinators via Moduli of Smoothness

We introduce moduli of smoothness techniques to deal with Berry–Esseen bounds, and illustrate them by considering standardized subordinators with finite variance. Instead of the classical Berry–Esseen smoothing inequality, we give an easy inequality involving the second modulus. Under finite third moment assumptions, such an inequality provides the main term of the approximation with small constants, even asymptotically sharp constants in the lattice case. Under infinite third moment assumptions, we show that the optimal rate of convergence can be simply written in terms of the first modulus of smoothness of an appropriate function, depending on the characteristic random variable of the subordinator. The preceding results are extended to standardized Lévy processes with finite variance.     

Asymptotics for estimation and testing procedures under loss of identifiability

Statistical analyses commonly make use of models that suffer from loss of identifiability. In this paper, we address important issues related to the parameter estimation and hypothesis testing in models with loss of identifiability. That is, there are multiple parameter points corresponding to the same true model. We refer the set of these parameter points to as the set of true parameter values. We consider the case where the set of true parameter values is allowed to be very large or even infinite, some parameter values may lie on the boundary of the parameter space, and the data are not necessarily independently and identically distributed. Our results are applicable to a large class of estimators and their related testing statistics derived from optimizing an objective function such as a likelihood. We examine three specific examples: (i) a finite mixture logistic regression model; (ii) stationary ARMA processes; (iii) general quadratic approximation using Hellinger distance. The applications to these examples demonstrate the applicability of our results in a broad range of difficult statistical problems.     

非线性自回归序列L1估计的渐近分布

由于时间序列数据中经常出现的厚尾特征使得通常的估计方法不再具有渐近的正态分布,在误差项二阶矩有限的条件下考虑了非线性自回归序列的L_1估计.采用局部线性近似的方法得到了具有凸样本路径的随机过程,在此基础上利用凸样本路径随机过程弱收敛的性质证明了非线性自回归序列L_1估计的渐近正态性及无偏性.     

带移民的上临界分支过程在一般条件下的小值概率

本文的主要目的是在后代分布均值有限但L log L阶距无限的条件下研究带移民的上临界分支过程(Z_n)的小值概率.当后代分布均值有限且移民分布的log L阶距有限时,存在常数序列{C_n,n≥0}使得C_n~(-1)Z_n收敛到一个非负有限且非退化的随机变量,记作W.本文基于前期关于分支过程小值概率的工作,在最一般的条件下得到了W的小值概率,即P(W≤ε)在ε→0~+时的收敛速率.     

Local Whittle estimator for anisotropic random fields

A local Whittle estimator is developed to simultaneously estimate the long memory parameters for stationary anisotropic scalar random fields. It is shown that these estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal, under some weak technical conditions. A brief simulation study illustrates a practical application of the estimator.     

Asymptotic normality of the likelihood moment estimators for a stationary linear process with heavy-tailed innovations

The authors recently proved in Martig and Hüsler (2016) that the likelihood moment estimators are consistent estimators for the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution for the case where the underlying data arises from a (stationary) linear process with heavy-tailed innovations. In this paper we derive the bivariate asymptotic normality under some additional assumptions and give an explicit example on how to check these conditions by using asymptotic expansions. Some finite sample comparisons are presented to investigate the bias and variance behavior for some of the estimators.     

The functional central limit theorem for linear processes with strong near-epoch dependent innovations

This paper discusses linear processes with innovations exhibiting asymptotic weak dependence by being strong near-epoch dependent functions of mixing processes. The functional central limit theorem for the normalized partial sum process is established. The conditions given essentially improve on existing results in the literature in terms of the “size” requirement for the amount of dependence. It is also shown that two important econometric models, ARMA and GARCH models, are strong near-epoch dependent sequences.