Global Analysis of Two Tuberculosis Models

Two models for tuberculosis (TB) that include treatment of latent and infective individuals are considered. The first model assumes constant recruitment with a fixed fraction entering each class, having the consequences that TB never dies out and that the usual threshold condition does not apply. The unique endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable for all parameter values and is shown to be globally asymptotically stable under certain parameter restrictions. The second model has a general recruitment function, but all recruitment is into the susceptible class. Three threshold parameters determine the existence and local stability of equilibria. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to one. The endemic equilibrium, when it exists, is shown to be globally asymptotically stable under certain parameter restrictions. Global stability results for the endemic equilibria are proved using the geometric approach of Li and Muldowney.     

Optimal control of the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis

This paper deals with the problem of optimal control for the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis (TB). A tuberculosis model which incorporates the essential biological and epidemiological features of the disease such as exogenous reinfection and chemoprophylaxis of latently infected individuals, and treatment of the infectious is developed and rigorously analyzed. Based on this continuous model, the tuberculosis control is formulated and solved as an optimal control theory problem, indicating how a control term on the chemoprophylaxis should be introduced in the population to reduce the number of individuals with active TB. The feedback control law has been proved to be capable of reducing the number of individuals with active TB. An advantage is that the proposed scheme accounts for the energy wasted by the controller and the closed-loop performance on tracking. Numerical results show the performance of the optimization strategy.     

On the Role of Variable Latent Periods in Mathematical Models for Tuberculosis

The qualitative behaviors of a system of ordinary differential equations and a system of differential-integral equations, which model the dynamics of disease transmission for tuberculosis (TB), have been studied. It has been shown that the dynamics of both models are governed by a reproductive number. All solutions converge to the origin (the disease-free equilibrium) when this reproductive number is less than or equal to the critical value one. The disease-free equilibrium is unstable and there exists a unique positive (endemic) equilibrium if the reproductive number exceeds one. Moreover, the positive equilibrium is stable. Our results show that the qualitative behaviors predicted by the model with arbitrarily distributed latent stage are similar to those given by the TB model with an exponentially distributed period of latency.     

QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF AN SEIS EPIDEMIC MODEL WITH NONLINEAR INCIDENCE RATE

By means of limit theory and Fonda's theorem, an SEIS epidemic model with constant recruitment and the disease-related rate is considered. The incidence term is of the nonlinear form, and the basic reproduction number is found. If the basic reproduction number is less than one, there exists only the disease-free equilibrium, which is globally asymptotically stable, and the disease dies out eventually. If the basic reproduction number is greater than one, besides the unstable disease-free equilibrium, there exists also a unique endemic equilibrium, which is locally asymptotically stable, and the disease is uniformly persistent.     

Global properties of a class of virus infection models with multitarget cells

In this paper, we propose a class of virus infection models with multitarget cells and study their global properties. We first study three models with specific forms of incidence rate function, then study a model with a more general nonlinear incidence rate. The basic model is a (2n+1)-dimensional nonlinear ODEs that describes the population dynamics of the virus, n classes of uninfected target cells, and n classes of infected target cells. Model with exposed state and model with saturated infection rate are also studied. For these models, Lyapunov functions are constructed to establish the global asymptotic stability of the uninfected and infected steady states of these models. We have proven that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity then the uninfected steady state is globally asymptotically stable, and if the basic reproduction number is greater than unity then the infected steady state is globally asymptotically stable. For the model with general nonlinear incidence rate, we construct suitable Lyapunov functions and establish the sufficient conditions for the global stability of the uninfected and infected steady states of this model.     

Global stability of a delayed SEIRS epidemic model with saturation incidence rate

In this paper, an SEIRS epidemic model with a saturation incidence rate and a time delay describing a latent period is investigated. By analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of an endemic equilibrium and a disease-free equilibrium is established. When the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, by means of an iteration technique, sufficient conditions are obtained for the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium. By comparison arguments, it is proved that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the main theoretical results.     

Dynamics and control of COVID-19 pandemic with nonlinear incidence rates

World Health Organization (WHO) has declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020. As of May 23, 2020, according to WHO, there are 213 countries, areas or territories with COVID-19 positive cases. To effectively address this situation, it is imperative to have a clear understanding of the COVID-19 transmission dynamics and to concoct efficient control measures to mitigate/contain the spread. In this work, the COVID-19 dynamics is modelled using susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed model with a nonlinear incidence rate. In order to control the transmission, the coefficient of nonlinear incidence function is adopted as the Governmental control input. To adequately understand the COVID-19 dynamics, bifurcation analysis is performed and the effect of varying reproduction number on the COVID-19 transmission is studied. The inadequacy of an open-loop approach in controlling the disease spread is validated via numerical simulations and a robust closed-loop control methodology using sliding mode control is also presented. The proposed SMC strategy could bring the basic reproduction number closer to 1 from an initial value of 2.5, thus limiting the exposed and infected individuals to a controllable threshold value. The model and the proposed control strategy are then compared with real-time data in order to verify its efficacy.

     

Threshold Dynamics for Compartmental Epidemic Models in Periodic Environments

The basic reproduction ratio and its computation formulae are established for a large class of compartmental epidemic models in periodic environments. It is proved that a disease cannot invade the disease-free state if the ratio is less than unity and can invade if it is greater than unity. It is also shown that the basic reproduction number of the time-averaged autonomous system is applicable in the case where both the matrix of new infection rate and the matrix of transition and dissipation within infectious compartments are diagonal, but it may underestimate and overestimate infection risks in other cases. The global dynamics of a periodic epidemic model with patch structure is analyzed in order to study the impact of periodic contacts or periodic migrations on the disease transmission.      

Assessing the potential impact of immunity waning on the dynamics of COVID-19 in South Africa: an endemic model of COVID-19

We developed an endemic model of COVID-19 to assess the impact of vaccination and immunity waning on the dynamics of the disease. Our model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation and bi-stability, where a stable disease-free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium. The epidemiological implication of this is that the control reproduction number being less than unity is no longer sufficient to guarantee disease eradication. We showed that this phenomenon could be eliminated by either increasing the vaccine efficacy or by reducing the disease transmission rate (adhering to non-pharmaceutical interventions). Furthermore, we numerically investigated the impacts of vaccination and waning of both vaccine-induced immunity and post-recovery immunity on the disease dynamics. Our simulation results show that the waning of vaccine-induced immunity has more effect on the disease dynamics relative to post-recovery immunity waning and suggests that more emphasis should be on reducing the waning of vaccine-induced immunity to eradicate COVID-19.

     

Impacts of the Cell-Free and Cell-to-Cell Infection Modes on Viral Dynamics

Virus can disseminate between uninfected target cells via two modes, namely, the diffusion-limited cell-free viral spread and the direct cell-to-cell transfer using virological synapses. To examine how these two viral infection modes impact the viral dynamics, in this paper, we propose and analyze a general viral infection model that incorporates these two viral infection modes. The model also includes nonlinear target-cell dynamics, infinitely distributed intracellular delays, nonlinear incidences, and concentration-dependent clearance rates. It is shown that the numbers of secondly infected cells through the cell-free infection mode and the cell-to-cell infection mode both contribute to the basic reproduction number. Under some reasonable assumptions, the model exhibits a global threshold dynamics: the infection is cleared out if the basic reproduction number is less than one and the infection persists if the basic reproduction number is larger than one. Two specific examples are provided to illustrate that our theoretical results cover and improve some existing ones. When the underlying assumptions are not satisfied, oscillations via global Hopf bifurcation can be observed. A brief simulation of two-parameter bifurcation analysis is given to explore the joint impacts on viral dynamics for the interplay between nonlinear target-cell dynamics and intracellular delays.     

The pulse treatment of computer viruses: a modeling study

Unlike new medical procedures, new antivirus software can be disseminated rapidly through the Internet and takes effect immediately after it is run. As a result, a considerable number of infected computers can be cured almost simultaneously. Consequently, it is of practical importance to understand how pulse treatment affects the spread of computer viruses. For this purpose, an impulsive malware propagation model is proposed. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first computer virus model that takes into account the effect of pulse treatment. The dynamic properties of this model are investigated comprehensively. Specifically, it is found that (a) the virus-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction ratio (BRR) is less than unity, (b) infections are permanent when the BRR exceeds unity, and (c) a locally asymptotically stable viral periodic solution bifurcates from the virus-free periodic solution when the BRR goes through unity. A close inspection of the influence of different model parameters on the BRR allows us to suggest some feasible measures of eradicating electronic infections.     

Periodic solutions of an epidemic model with saturated treatment

Based on the fact that many infectious diseases exhibit periodic fluctuations and there is a saturated phenomenon during disease treatment, we study an SIR model with periodic incidence rate and saturated treatment function. Firstly, we find that the basic reproduction number less than 1 cannot insure the global stability of disease-free equilibrium and it needs to add other conditions. Moreover, we establish sufficient conditions for the multiplicity of positive periodic solutions. We also apply the numerical method to confirm theoretical results and show the stability of the periodic solutions. We observe that there are two periodic solutions in the system where one is stable and the other one is unstable. These results will provide some guidance for control measures of disease.     

NONLINEAR SATURATION OF BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY IN THE GENERALIZED PHILLIPS MODEL (Ⅰ) -THE UPPER BOUND ON THE EVOLUTION OF DISTURBANCE TO THE NONLINEARLY UNSTABLE BASIC FLOW

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NONLINEAR SATURATION OF BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY IN THE GENERALIZED PHILLIPS MODEL (Ⅰ) -THE UPPER BOUND ON THE EVOLUTION OF DISTURBANCE TO THE NONLINEARLY UNSTABLE BASIC FLOW

On the basis of the nonlinear stability theorem in the context of Arnol’s second theorem for the generalized Phillips model, nonlinear saturation of baroclinic instability in the generalized Phillips model is investigated. By choosing appropriate artificial stable basic flows, the upper bounds on the disturbance energy and potential enstrophy to the nonlinearly unstable basic flow in the generalized Phillips model are obtained, which are analytic completely and without the limitation of infinitesimal initial disturbance.     

Global stability of a delayed HIV infection model with nonlinear incidence rate

Under the assumption that the incidence rate of the infection and the removal rate of the infective by cytotoxic T lymphocytes are nonlinear, we study the global dynamics of a HIV infection model with the response of the immune system using characteristic equation, the Fluctuation lemma, and the direct Lyapunov method. The existence of a threshold parameter, i.e., the basic reproduction number or basic reproductive ratio is established and the global stability of the equilibria is discussed.     

Expanding the limits of “equilibrium” second-moment turbulence closures

The paper discusses possibilities for refinements of conventional “equilibrium” second-moment turbulence closure models, aimed at improving model performances in predicting turbulent flows of greater complexity. In focus are the invariant modelling of the low-Re-number and wall proximity effects, as well as extra strain-rates and control of the turbulence length-scale. In addition to satisfying most of the basic physical constraints, the main criterion for model validation was the quality of reproduction of flow and turbulence details, particularly, in the vicinity of a solid wall, in a broad variety of non-equilibrium flows featured by different phenomena. It is demonstrated that the new model, which includes several new modifications, but also some proposed in the past, can satisfactorily reproduce a range of attached and separating flows with strong time- or space-variations or abrupt changes of boundary conditions. Cases considered cover a wide range of Re-numbers involving in some cases also the laminar-to-turbulent or reverse transition.     

Vaccination control of an epidemic model with time delay and its application to COVID-19

Nonlinear Dynamics - This paper studies an SEIR-type epidemic model with time delay and vaccination control. The vaccination control is applied when the basic reproduction number $$R_0>1$$ ....     

Dynamic and wear characteristics of self-lubricating bearing cage: effects of cage pocket shape

34,354,966 active cases and 460,787 deaths because of COVID-19 pandemic were recorded on November 06, 2021, in India. To end this ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic, there is an urgent need to implement multiple population-wide policies like social distancing, testing more people and contact tracing. To predict the course of the pandemic and come up with a strategy to control it effectively, a compartmental model has been established. The following six stages of infection are taken into consideration: susceptible (S), asymptomatic infected (A), clinically ill or symptomatic infected (I), quarantine (Q), isolation (J) and recovered (R), collectively termed as SAIQJR. The qualitative behavior of the model and the stability of biologically realistic equilibrium points are investigated in terms of the basic reproduction number. We performed sensitivity analysis with respect to the basic reproduction number and obtained that the disease transmission rate has an impact in mitigating the spread of diseases. Moreover, considering the non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical intervention strategies as control functions, an optimal control problem is implemented to mitigate the disease fatality. To reduce the infected individuals and to minimize the cost of the controls, an objective functional has been constructed and solved with the aid of Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The implementation of optimal control strategy at the start of a pandemic tends to decrease the intensity of epidemic peaks, spreading the maximal impact of an epidemic over an extended time period. Extensive numerical simulations show that the implementation of intervention strategy has an impact in controlling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic. Further, our numerical solutions exhibit that the combination of three controls are more influential when compared with the combination of two controls as well as single control. Therefore, the implementation of all the three control strategies may help to mitigate novel coronavirus disease transmission at this present epidemic scenario.

     

A conservative and shape-preserving semi-Lagrangian method for the solution of the shallow water equations

Semi-Lagrangian methods are now perhaps the most widely researched algorithms in connection with atmospheric flow simulation codes. In order to investigate their applicability to hydraulic problems, cubic Hermite polynomials are used as the interpolant technique. The main advantage of such an approach is the use of information from only two points. The derivatives are calculated and limited so as to produce a shape-preserving solution. The lack of conservation of semi-Lagrangian methods, however, is widely regarded as a serious disadvantage for hydraulic studies, where non-linear problems in which shocks may develop are often encountered. In this work we describe how to make the scheme conservative using an FCT approach. The method proposed does not guarantee an unconditional shock-capturing ability but is able to correctly reproduce the discontinuous flows common in open channel simulation without any shock-fitting algorithm. It is a cheap way to improve existing 1D semi-Lagrangian codes and allows stable calculations beyond the usual CFL limits. A basic semi-Lagrangian method is presented that provides excellent results for a linear problem: the new techniques allow us to tackle non-linear cases without unduly degrading the accuracy for the simpler problems. Two one-dimensional hydraulic problems are used as test cases, water hammer and dam break. In the latter case, because of the non-linearity, special care is needed with the low-order solution and we show the advantages of using Leveque's large-time step version of Roe's scheme for this purpose.