Numerical simulations and modeling for stochastic biological systems with jumps

This paper gives a numerical method to simulate sample paths for stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by Poisson random measures. It provides us a new approach to simulate systems with jumps from a different angle. The driving Poisson random measures are assumed to be generated by stationary Poisson point processes instead of Lévy processes. Methods provided in this paper can be used to simulate SDEs with Lévy noise approximately. The simulation is divided into two parts: the part of jumping integration is based on definition without approximation while the continuous part is based on some classical approaches. Biological explanations for stochastic integrations with jumps are motivated by several numerical simulations. How to model biological systems with jumps is showed in this paper. Moreover, method of choosing integrands and stationary Poisson point processes in jumping integrations for biological models are obtained. In addition, results are illustrated through some examples and numerical simulations. For some examples, earthquake is chose as a jumping source which causes jumps on the size of biological population.     

Extremes of Lévy driven mixed MA processes with convolution equivalent distributions

We investigate the extremal behavior of stationary mixed MA processes for t ≥ 0, where f is a deterministic function and Λ is an infinitely divisible and independently scattered random measure. Particular examples of mixed MA processes are superpositions of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes, applied as stochastic volatility models in Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001a). We assume that the finite dimensional distributions of Λ are in the class of convolution equivalent tails and in the maximum domain of attraction of the Gumbel distribution. On the one hand, we compute the tail behavior of Y(0) and sup _{t ∈ [0,1]} Y(t). On the other hand, we study the extremes of Y by means of marked point processes based on maxima of Y in random intervals. A complementary result guarantees the convergence of the running maxima of Y to the Gumbel distribution. Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft through a research grant is gratefully acknowledged.     

Approximate Simulation of Hawkes Processes

Hawkes processes are important in point process theory and its applications, and simulation of such processes are often needed for various statistical purposes. This article concerns a simulation algorithm for unmarked and marked Hawkes processes, exploiting that the process can be constructed as a Poisson cluster process. The algorithm suffers from edge effects but is much faster than the perfect simulation algorithm introduced in our previous work Møller and Rasmussen (2004). We derive various useful measures for the error committed when using the algorithm, and we discuss various empirical results for the algorithm compared with perfect simulations. Extensions of the algorithm and the results to more general types of marked point processes are also discussed.     

Models of stochastic geometry — A survey

This paper discusses some models of stochastic geometry which are of potential interest for operations research. These are the Boolean model, a certain model for random compact sets and marked point processes. The Boolean model is a generalization of the well-known queueing systemM/G/. The random compact set model may be useful for modelling spatial spreading processes such as fires, cancers or holes in the Earth's surface. Marked point processes are used here as models of forests and used for a statistical study of the spatial distribution of damaged trees.Extended version of an Invited Lecture on the 16th Symposium for OR in Hamburg 1992.     

带有相依重尾冲击的Poisson噪音过程尾的一致渐近性质

本文考虑了带有某种相依重尾冲击的Poisson噪音过程尾的一致渐近性质.当冲击是二元上尾渐近独立的非负随机变量具有长尾和控制变化尾分布且噪音函数具有正的上下界时,得到了过程尾概率的一致渐近公式.进而,当冲击具有连续的一致变化尾分布时,去除了噪音函数具有正的下界的限制.对于噪音函数不一定具有正的上界的情形,当冲击具有两两负象限相依结构时,也得到了一致渐近性结果.     

Characterization of Classical and Quantum Poisson Systems by Thinnings and Splittings

There exist several well–known characterizations of Poisson and mixed Poisson point processes (Cox processes) by thinning and splitting procedures. So a point process is necessarily a Cox process if for arbitrary small thinning parameter it can be obtained by a thinning of some other point process [30]. Poisson processes are characterized by the independence of the two random subconfigurations obtained by an independent splitting of the configuration into two parts [11]. For quantum mechanical particle systems beam splittings which are well–known in quantum optics provide analogous procedures. It is shown that coherent states respectively mixtures of them can be characterized in the same way as Poisson processes and Cox processes. Moreover, for the position distributions of these states which are “classical” point processes just the above mentioned characterizations are obtained. As example of mixed coherent states we consider Gaussian states which arise as equilibrium states of ideal Bose gases.     

Iterative procedures for solutions of random operator equations in Banach spaces

We construct random iterative processes for weakly contractive and asymptotically nonexpansive random operators and study necessary conditions for the convergence of these processes. It is shown that they converge to the random fixed points of these operators in the setting of Banach spaces. We also proved that an implicit random iterative process converges to the common random fixed point of a finite family of asymptotically quasi-nonexpansive random operators in uniformly convex Banach spaces.     

Constructions for planar point processes using concentric circles

Some point processes are obtained by generalising the well-known construction for a two-dimensional Poisson process which locates an event on each of a sequence of concentric circles in a particular way. The constructions considered here have, in general, a random number of events on each circle. Under certain sufficient conditions, the constructed processes are asymptotically Poisson, far from the origin. The obvious regularity in the structure of these processes can be removed at least superficially, by displacing the events independently off the concentric circles.     

Scaling limits of coupled continuous time random walks and residual order statistics through marked point processes

A continuous time random walk (CTRW) is a random walk in which both spatial changes represented by jumps and waiting times between the jumps are random. The CTRW is coupled if a jump and its preceding or following waiting time are dependent random variables (r.v.), respectively. The aim of this paper is to explain the occurrence of different limit processes for CTRWs with forward- or backward-coupling in Straka and Henry (2011) [37] using marked point processes. We also establish a series representation for the different limits. The methods used also allow us to solve an open problem concerning residual order statistics by LePage (1981) [20].     

EPSTA: The coincidence of time-stationary and customer-stationary distributions

In the first part of this paper we present an overview of relationships between time- and customer-stationary distributions of queueing processes. These have been proved by using the properties of random marked point processes, stochastic processes with embedded point processes, Palm distributions and an intensity conservation principle. In the second part a necessary and sufficient condition is established for the coincidence of the two types of stationary distributions, using conditional intensities. We also formulate the property of EPSTA that includes PASTA and ASTA as particular cases. A further result concerns the conditional EPSTA property. Applications to particular queueing systems are considered.     

Directed Markov Point Processes as Limits of Partially Ordered Markov Models

In this paper, we consider spatial point processes and investigate members of a subclass of the Markov point processes, termed the directed Markov point processes (DMPPs), whose joint distribution can be written in closed form and, as a consequence, its parameters can be estimated directly. Furthermore, we show how the DMPPs can be simulated rapidly using a one-pass algorithm. A subclass of Markov random fields on a finite lattice, called partially ordered Markov models (POMMs), has analogous structure to that of DMPPs. In this paper, we show that DMPPs are the limits of auto-Poisson and auto-logistic POMMs. These and other results reveal a close link between inference and simulation for DMPPs and POMMs.     

Random Walk Analysis in Antagonistic Stochastic Games

Abstract

This article deals with two “antagonistic random processes” that are intended to model classes of completely noncooperative games occurring in economics, engineering, natural sciences, and warfare. In terms of game theory, these processes can represent two players with opposite interests. The actions of the players are manifested by a series of strikes of random magnitudes imposed onto the opposite side and rendered at random times. Each of the assaults is aimed to inflict damage to vital areas. In contrast with some strictly antagonistic games where a game ends with one single successful hit, in the current setting, each side (player) can endure multiple strikes before perishing. Each player has a fixed cumulative threshold of tolerance which represents how much damage he can endure before succumbing. Each player will try to defeat the adversary at his earliest opportunity, and the time when one of them collapses is referred to as the “ruin time”. We predict the ruin time of each player, and the cumulative status of all related components for each player at ruin time. The actions of each player are formalized by a marked point process representing (an economic) status of each opponent at any given moment of time. Their marks are assumed to be weakly monotone, which means that each opposite side accumulates damages, but does not have the ability to recover. We render a time-sensitive analysis of a bivariate continuous time parameter process representing the status of each player at any given time and at the ruin time and obtain explicit formulas for related functionals.     

Branching random walks,stable point processes and regular variation

Using the theory of regular variation, we give a sufficient condition for a point process to be in the superposition domain of attraction of a strictly stable point process. This sufficient condition is used to obtain the weak limit of a sequence of point processes induced by a branching random walk with jointly regularly varying displacements. Because of heavy tails of the step size distribution, we can invoke a one large jump principle at the level of point processes to give an explicit representation of the limiting point process. As a consequence, we extend the main result of Durrett (1983) and verify that two related predictions of Brunet and Derrida (2011) remain valid for this model.     

Ordered thinnings of point processes and random measures

This is a study of thinnings of point processes and random measures on the real line that satisfy a weak law of large numbers. The thinning procedures have dependencies based on the order of the points or masses being thinned such that the thinned process is a composition of two random measures. It is shown that the thinned process (normalized by a certain function) converges in distribution if and only if the thinning process does. This result is used to characterize the convergence of thinned processes to infinitely divisible processes, such as a compound Poisson process, when the thinning is independent and nonhomogeneous, stationary, Markovian, or regenerative. Thinning by a sequence of independent identically distributed operations is also discussed. The results here contain Renyi's classical thinning theorem and many of its extensions.     

Perfect simulation and inference for point processes given noisy observations

Summary  The paper is concerned with the exact simulation of an unobserved true point process conditional on a noisy observation. We use dominated coupling from the past (CFTP) on an augmented state space to produce perfect samples of the target marked point process. An optimized coupling of the target chains makes the algorithm considerable faster than with the standard coupling used in dominated CFTP for point processes. The perfect simulations are used for inference and the results are compared to an ordinary Metropolis-Hastings sampler.     

A note on asymptotic expansions for sums over a weakly dependent random field with application to the Poisson and Strauss processes

Previous results on Edgeworth expansions for sums over a random field are extended to the case where the strong mixing coefficient depends not only on the distance between two sets of random variables, but also on the size of the two sets. The results are applied to the Poisson and the Strauss point processes, giving rise also to local limit results.     

Local asymptotic normality of a sequential model for marked point processes and its applications

This paper deals with statistical inference problems for a special type of marked point processes based on the realization in random time intervals [0,_u]. Sufficient conditions to establish the local asymptotic normality (LAN) of the model are presented, and then, certain class of stopping times _u satisfying them is proposed. Using these stopping rules, one can treat the processes within the framework of LAN, which yields asymptotic optimalities of various inference procedures. Applications for compound Poisson processes and continuous time Markov branching processes (CMBP) are discussed. Especially, asymptotically uniformly most powerful tests for criticality of CMBP can be obtained. Such tests do not exist in the case of the non-sequential approach. Also, asymptotic normality of the sequential maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the Malthusian parameter of CMBP can be derived, although the non-sequential MLE is not asymptotically normal in the supercritical case.     

Position dependent and stochastic thinning of point processes

A short probabilistic proof of Kallenberg's theorem [2] on thinning of point processes is given. It is extended to the case where the probability of deletion of a point depends on the position of the point and is itself random. The proof also leads easily to a statement about the rate of convergence in Renyi's theorem on thinning a renewal process.     

Derived random measures

A derived random measure is constructed by integration of a random process with respect to a random measure independent of that process. Basic distributional properties, a continuity theorem, sample path properties, a strong law of large numbers, and a central limit theorem for derived random measures are established. Applications are given to compounding and thinning of point processes and the measure of a random set.     

Hedging unit‐linked life insurance contracts in a financial market driven by shot‐noise processes

We consider the risk‐minimizing hedging problem for unit‐linked life insurance in a financial market driven by a shot‐noise process. Because the financial market is incomplete, the insurance claims cannot be hedged completely by trading stocks and bonds only, leaving some risk to the insurer. The theory of ((pseudo) locally) risk‐minimization is applied after a change of measure. Then the risk‐minimizing trading strategies and the associated intrinsic risk processes are determined for two types of unit‐linked contracts represented by the pure endowment and the term insurance. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.