An application of a hybrid approach to modeling a flexible manufacturing system

Both analytic and simulation models were used to analyze the capabilities and requirements of an automated circuit card manufacturing system. Analytic models were used to determine the sensitivity of the measures of effectiveness (MOEs) to various design parameters. This analysis gave approximate results and bounded the range of input parameters for the simulation model. A detailed simulation model was required for use during both the design and production phases of the project. This simulation model incorporated only those variables to which the MOEs are most sensitive, and provided additional features to observe system behavior. The benefits and appropriate uses for each class of models are discussed.     

钢铁企业订货系统模型的VENSIM建模与仿真实现

订货模型存在于大多数的公司中,用以根据销售情况组织公司生产.在简单生产-分配系统模型基础上,构建了钢铁企业零售商订货模型;运用系统动力学方法分析了该订货模型,并采用了阶跃函数描述了复杂变化的零售商销售状况,通过VENSIM建模与仿真分析,找出了零售商销售-订单-库存的相互关系;结果表明,钢铁企业生产-分配系统的特征与采用阶跃函数得出的结果非常相似,对钢铁企业零售商的订货策略具有指导意义.     

面向客户定制模式的供应链管理系统优化模型

建立供应链管理系统优化模型是构建高效率供应链以及发挥供应链优势的前提和基础 .本文建立了面向客户定制模式的集成的供应链管理系统优化模型 ,即一个多目标、具有约束的非线性混合规划模型 ,并提出了针对这种模型的求解思路 .通过对模型的仿真求解既可以优化选择供应链系统中涉及的相关协作企业 ,同时优化系统的订货、生产、库存策略 ,对构建高效率供应链管理系统具有重要意义 .     

Probabilistic verification of a biodiesel production system using statistical model checking

Biochemical system designers are increasingly using formal modelling, simulation, and verification methods to improve the understanding of complex systems. Probabilistic models can incorporate realistic stochastic dynamics, but creating and analysing probabilistic models in a formal way is challenging. In this work, we present a stochastic model of biodiesel production that incorporates an inexpensive test of fuel quality, and we validate the model using statistical model checking, which can be used to evaluate simple or complex temporal properties efficiently. We also describe probabilistic simulation and analysis techniques for stochastic hybrid system (SHS) models to demonstrate the properties of our model. We introduce a variety of properties for various configurations of the reactor as well as results of testing our model against the properties.     

最优组合预测模型的构建及其应用研究

由于证券价格是随机游走的,在证券定价研究中RBF神经网络模型、灰色GM（1,1）模型、ARIMA模型不具备时效性,通过对上述三个模型进行综合分析,结合三者中有用的信息集合,构建一个最优组合预测模型．在此基础上选取了深发展A在2007年全年的收盘价作为研究样本对这四个模型进行实证研究,研究结果发现,最优组合预测方法对证券价格进行预测具有很好的预测精度和很高的可靠性．     

A possible eddy generating mechanism in the Ligurian basin

This note investigates a possible mechanism for the production of eddies in a flat semi-enclosed sea. The model, which is an application to the Ligurian Sea of the Bryan and Ripa models and Willmott and Mysak models, simulates density anomalies by atmospherically forced planetary wave propagation, obtaining an eddy-like structure. The role of a particular forcing is investigated.     

炼油生产调度优化模型研究

本文针对炼油厂一次加工采用原油混烧方式的特点,研究了以满足二次加工质量卡边要求为目标的生产调度优化模型,为保证产品质量的稳定和降低原油成本,研究了原油需求预测模型,并介绍了两个模型求解算法的特点。     

含有治愈部分的可加危险模型的估计

最近可加危险(AH)模型被广泛地应用于生存分析数据,模型的协变量可以假设为时间独立或时间相关的.基于混合治愈模型,有界累计危险治愈模型和"不正确"的比例危险模型.本文将上述的可乘危险模型延伸到可加的危险模型,这里的模型可以允许含治愈部分的生存数据的存在."不正确"的AH模型的识别和参数估计也将在本文给出讨论.     

INVESTIGATING TAX DISTORTIONS: AN APPLIED MODEL OF PETROLEUM EXPLORATION AND EXTRACTION DECISIONS

Abstract A numerical model is proposed for the testing of distortions caused by petroleum fiscal systems on the exploration and extraction activities of a profit‐maximizing firm. Traditional models have not been capable of testing for the distortions caused by the complex tax structures most often used by governments. Two tax combinations, as well as certain other taxes, are analyzed for distortions in the model. The model is parameterized using generic data because specific jurisdictions are not considered. The distortions due to rentals and royalties are as expected by theory. Property taxes show a new distortion result where production tilting is ambiguous.     

流化床液体分布器优化数学模型

本对化工生产中的流化床的液体密度分布进行了计算，并建立了流化床流体分布器的优化数学模型，提出了有效的解法，为提高化工生产效率提供了一种指导方法。     

Propagation effects of model-calculated probability values in Bayesian networks

Probabilistic causal interaction models have become quite popular among Bayesian-network engineers as elicitation of all probabilities required often proves the main bottleneck in building a real-world network with domain experts. The best-known interaction models are the noisy-OR model and its generalisations. These models in essence are parameterised conditional probability tables for which just a limited number of parameter probabilities are required. The models assume specific properties of intercausal interaction and cannot be applied uncritically. Given their clear engineering advantages however, they are subject to ill-considered use. This paper demonstrates that such ill-considered use can result in poorly calibrated output probabilities from a Bayesian network. By studying, in an analytical way, the propagation effects of noisy-OR calculated probability values, we identify conditions under which use of the model can be harmful for a network's performance. These conditions demonstrate that use of the noisy-OR model for mere pragmatic reasons is sometimes warranted, even when the model's underlying assumptions are not met in reality.     

生产安全事故宏观发展态势的计量经济学研究

为了研究工矿商贸就业人员10万人生产安全事故死亡率时间序列变化特征,基于我国行业生产安全事故死亡人数及第二、三产业就业人员数量等2方面年度统计数据,通过研究事故死亡率时间序列的自回归移动平均过程,论文构建了事故死亡率时间序列的分阶段自回归移动平均模型.研究表明:工矿商贸行业10万人事故死亡率变化趋势具有明显的分阶段波动特征,事故死亡率序列均为趋势平稳过程;序列当期观测值与滞后1期观测值具有显著的自相关性;各阶段事故率自回归移动平均模型结构不尽相同;特征描述模型为正确把握我国安全生产状况及趋势提供理论依据.     

自适应灰色欧拉模型的优化及其应用

灰色预测模型已经在很多领域获得成功的应用,但是该方法的模型性能还可以进一步提高.为此,提出了一种新的灰色欧拉模型GEM(1,1)和OSGEM(1,1),给出了参数的最小二乘法计算公式,并以微分方程为推理过程,得到了GEM(1,1)模型和OSGEM(1,1)模型的时间响应序列.利用2002-2015年的数据建立预测模型,利用2016-2018年的数据评估模型的准确性.结果表明,OSGEM(1,1)模型优于其他模型.     

Numerical solution of stiff and convection-diffusion equations using adaptive spline function approximation

The singular perturbation mathematical model plays an important role in modelling fluid processes which arise in applied mechanics. We have either, the stiff system of initial value problems or convection-diffusion problems. When conventional numerical methods are used to obtain the solution, the stepsize must be limited to small values. Any attempt to use a larger step-size results in the production of nonphysical oscillations in the solution.In this paper we have constructed an adaptive spline function to solve initial and boundary value problems of ordinary and partial differential equations. The numerical methods based on the spline relations when applied to the test models produce oscillation free solutions. The numerical results are presented and discussed.     

2011年研究生建模竞赛B题的评阅综述

本题从一项科研项目中提炼、并结合目前成为关注热点的隐身技术而设计,侧重于数学建模.结合题中的2个问题,可以抽象出3个平时比较少见的数学模型:几何模型,反射投影模型和积分方程模型.在竞赛中,前2个模型都有部分同学正确地得出,可惜的是,问题2所要求的积分方程模型,在近500份答卷,却无人得出,甚为遗憾.问题2属于一个需要同时确定数个彼此关联影响的函数的问题,处理这样问题的基本方法是建立以这些函数为变量的方程组,在这里由于确定相互影响的定量关系必须用积分,所以最终得出的是一个积分方程组.微分积分是大学数学中最基本最重要的概念和方法,由此不难看出,我们的基础教育中的弊病与问题,这需要引起有识之士们的反思.     

On the organization of large shared Model bases

Central to the Model Management (MM) function is the creation and maintenance of a knowledge-based model repository. The Model Knowledge Base (MKB) provides the basis by which information about models can be shared to facilitate consistent and controlled utilization of existing models for decision making, as well as the development of new models. Various schemes for representing individual models have been proposed in the literature. This paper focuses on how best to structure, control, and administer a large MKB to support organization-wide modeling activities. Guided by a recently proposed systems framework for MM, we describe a number of concepts which are useful for capturing the semantics and structural relationships of models in an MKB. These concepts, and the nature of the MMS functions to be supported, are then used to derive specific information management requirements for model bases. Four major requirements are identified: (1) management of composite model configurations; (2) management of model version histories; (3) support for the model consultation and selection functions of an MMS; and (4) support for multiple logical MKBs (private, group, and public). We argue that traditional record-based approaches to data management appear to fall short of capturing the rich semantics present in an MM environment. The paper proposes an architecture for an MMS, focusing on its major component — the MKB Management Subsystem. An implementation of this architecture is briefly described.     

The impact of controllable production rates on the performance of inventory systems: A systematic review of the literature

The lot sizing problem has attracted the attention of researchers for more than a century, and it still belongs to the most relevant decision problems in many manufacturing companies. During the evolution of research on lot sizing, the seminal economic order quantity (EOQ) model proposed by Harris [1913. How many parts to make at once. Factory, the Magazine of Management, 10 (2), 135-136.] has remained the most popular model, despite its limitations. To support lot sizing decisions in practice, researchers have frequently extended Harris’ basic EOQ model to better reflect the characteristics of real production processes. One of these extensions is the consideration of controllable (variable) production rates, which gives production planners more flexibility in managing the build-up and depletion of inventory and in controlling costs.The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive and systematic overview of EPQ-type lot sizing models that consider controllable production rates. First, the paper proposes a conceptual framework that captures the characteristics of controllable production rates including the planning horizon (short vs. long term), the number of potential interventions per production run (one vs. multiple), the effect of controllable production rates on the performance of the inventory system (e.g., unit production costs, energy consumption, product quality), and the type of lot sizing model considered (e.g., two-stage models, multi-stage models, multi-item models). Secondly, the paper presents the results of a systematic literature review and evaluates the state-of-research of lot sizing models with controllable production rates. Based on the analysis of the literature, key trends are summarized and promising research opportunities are discussed.     

Solving a multi-objective multi-skilled manpower scheduling model by a fuzzy goal programming approach

Manpower scheduling is an intricate problem in production and service environments with the purpose of generating fair schedules that consider employers’ objectives and employees’ preferences as much as possible. However, sometimes, vagueness of information related to employers’ objectives and employees’ preferences leads to the fuzzy nature of the problem. This paper presents a multi-objective manpower scheduling model regarding the lack of clarity on the target values of employers’ objectives and employees’ preferences. Hence, a fuzzy goal programming model is developed for the presented model. Afterwards, two fuzzy solution approaches are used to convert the fuzzy goal programming model to two single-objective models. Finally, the results obtained by both single-objective models are compared with each other to select the solution that has the greatest degree of the satisfaction level of employers’ objectives and employees’ preferences.