动态投入产出灰色最优控制模型

根据灰色系统理论,建立了动态投入产出问题的灰色最优控制模型.利用灰集合理论,把灰色最优控制问题转化为以隶属度为目标函数的(非灰色的)非线性规划问题,从而可利用非线性规划的方法求解这个灰色最优控制问题.     

人口投入产出模型

本文分别用人口转换关系和人口结构系数两种体系建立了动态人口投入产出模型,求出了模型的解和动态逆,并进一步研究了人口投入产出模型的应用.     

投入产出模型若干性质的研究

利用非负M矩阵的性质,给出了woods定理的一个新证明方法与该定理相关的推论;应用Z变换对离散型动态投入产出模型进行了求解,推导了投入产出模型的解在经济增长率、产出结构计算中的应用,并用具体实例对动态投入产出模型的经济预测与控制功能进行了实证分析.     

灰色实物型投入产出分析的覆盖解研究

由于国民经济系统的复杂性,人们在使用实物型投入产出分析工具时不可能获得各部门产品的投入与产出的确定值。采用灰色系统理论基本原理提出灰色实物型投入产出分析并给出模型及各种灰色分析系数的覆盖解公式。灰色实物型投入产出分析能处理统计数据为区间的情形,可以使决策者在不确定性情况下对复杂经济系统进行分析、预测和控制,提高人们的抗风险能力。模拟案例验证了模型计算的可行性。     

目标规划在离散型动态投入产出模型中的应用

以离散型动态投入产出模型为约束条件的主体、以决策部门所希望达到的种种目标为约束条件的附加部分,建立动态投入产出目标规划模型.通过求解动态投入产出目标规划模型而得到离散型动态投入产出模型的解.此解法与其它解法相比具有更大的实用价值.     

不确定性系统投入产出分析模型及预测

本综述了不确定性经济系统投入产出模型中直接消耗系数矩阵A=(aij）n的预测方法-RAS方法及其改进方法,定义了灰直接消耗系G（aij）,给出了不确定性经济系统灰色投入产出模型。     

多重嵌套的可计算非线性动态投入产出模型及其平衡增长解

给出多重嵌套的可计算非线性动态投入产出模型,并给出相应的价格、利润率、产出结构、增长率的平衡增长解计算公式.从本文给出的模型可以看出非线性投入产出模型可以有无穷多种不同形式,其中只有1种为众所周知的列昂惕夫线性投入产出模型.本文模型的重要意义在于它是线性投入产出模型与CGE（可计算一般均衡）模型的统一.它既克服了线性投入产出模型资本与劳动不可替代的缺点,又可方便地求解动态CGE的平衡增长解.     

一类独立的动态投入产出模型

Sargan．J．D从数学上指出[11]Leontief模型的内在不稳定性,由此引发数学上的争论,并使数学在该领域的应用研究取得重大结果,近年来,许多学者使用规划等方法避开此模型的不稳定性,找出了此模型的稳定增长解．对应于不同的经济体制,动态投入产出模型也表现出其形式的多样性．对时滞为1的前向延迟型动态投入产出模型,我们已经得出其稳定增长解。最近,曾立生提出了取消A为不可约的条件后,非负矩阵正向量唯一存在的条件．现实中,由下度量误差、经济技术的变化、管理技术的变化等众多原因,使投入产出消耗系数矩阵及投资系数矩阵在实现时是随机波动的,因此,有必要研究随机动态投入产出模型．另一方面,由于研究方式的不同,概率分析的方法会在动态投入产出模型的研究中得到意想不到的效果．     

一个容易操作的动态投入产出模型

本文从容易收集资料的角度出发，考虑可操作性，建立了一个离散的动态投入产出模型，在模型参数的修订、计算和模型的求解方面给出了新的方法．     

基于随机微分博弈的动态投入产出问题研究

基于W Leontief提出的动态投入产出模型,讨论了考虑随机因素的离散时间下的最优策略设计问题.利用博弈论的思想,把动态投入产出系统抽象为离散时间的博弈模型,运用鞍点均衡策略设计出求解该投入产出问题的新方法,为宏观经济决策提供依据.     

动态投入产出系统的稳定性分析

The dynamic input-output model is well known in economic theory and practice. In this paper, the asymptotic stability and balanced growth solutions of the dynamic input-output system are considered. Under some natural assumptions which do not require the technical coefficient matrix to be indecomposable,it has been proved that the dynamic input-output system is not asymptotically stable and the closed dynamic input-output model has a balanced growth solution.     

采用模糊滑模变结构方案控制Chua混沌系统

基于模糊动态模型 ,研究了 Chua混沌系统的稳定控制问题 .将非线性混沌系统模糊化为局部线性模型 .用 Lyapunov稳定性理论设计出 ,确保模糊动态模型全局渐近稳定的变结构控制器 .仿真验证了方案的有效性 .模糊控制器简单 ,规则少 .     

A dynamic multi-objective optimization model with interactivity and uncertainty for real-time reservoir flood control operation

Despite the successes of both multi-objective optimization and uncertainty handling techniques in reservoir flood control operation, no work has been done yet on developing and investigating dynamic multi-objective optimization models for this problem. In this work, a dynamic multi-objective optimization model with interactivity and uncertainty was developed for the real-time reservoir flood control operation. Accordingly, a dynamic multi-objective optimization algorithmic framework with two newly designed change reaction strategies was proposed for solving the proposed dynamic model. Following the proposed algorithmic framework, any evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithm can be converted into a dynamic optimizer. After investigating the difficulty variation of the proposed dynamic model, the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed algorithmic framework have been validated based on experiential studies on two typical floods of Ankang reservoir.     

A note on dynamic Stackelberg games with leaders in turn

Recently, a model of dynamic Stackelberg games with leaders in turn has been proposed, and dynamic Stackelberg games with leaders in turn have been exploited under a feedback information structure. This paper characterizes dynamic Stackelberg games with leaders in turn under other information structures, both closed-loop and open-loop information structures. Explicit solutions are given for linear-quadratic systems under an open-loop information structure for dynamic Stackelberg games with leaders in turn.     

Recent developments in dynamic advertising research

A variety of continuous-time differential functions have been developed to investigate dynamic advertising problems in business and economics fields. Since major dynamic models appearing before 1995 have been reviewed by a few survey papers, we provide a comprehensive review of the dynamic advertising models published after 1995, which are classified into six categories: (i) Nerlove–Arrow model and its extensions, (ii) Vidale–Wolfe model and its extensions, (iii) Lanchester model and its extensions, (iv) the diffusion models, (v) dynamic advertising-competition models with other attributes, and (vi) empirical studies for dynamic advertising problems. For each category, we first briefly summarize major relevant before-1995 models, and then discuss major after-1995 models in details. We find that the dynamic models reviewed in this paper have been extensively used to analyze various advertising problems in the monopoly, duopoly, oligopoly, and supply chain systems. Our review reveals that the diffusion models have not been used to analyze advertising problems in supply chain operations, which may be a research direction in the future. Moreover, we learn from our review that very few publications regarding dynamic advertising problems have considered the supply chain competition. We also find that very few researchers have used the diffusion model to investigate the dynamic advertising problems with product quality as a decision variable; and, the pricing decision has not been incorporated into any extant Lanchester model. The paper ends with a summary of our review and suggestions on possible research directions in the future.     

Effects of seasonal growth on delayed prey–predator model

The dynamic behavior of a delayed predator–prey system with Holling II functional response is investigated. The stability analysis has been carried out and existence of Hopf bifurcation has been established. The complex dynamic behavior due to time delay has been explored. The effects of seasonal growth on the complex dynamics have been simulated. The model shows a rich variety of behavior, including period doubling, quasi-periodicity, chaos, transient chaos, and windows of periodicity.     

A dynamic wind farm aggregate model for the simulation of power fluctuations due to wind turbulence

An important aspect related to wind energy integration into the electrical power system is the fluctuation of the generated power due to the stochastic variations of the wind speed across the area where wind turbines are installed. Simulation models are useful tools to evaluate the impact of the wind power on the power system stability and on the power quality. Aggregate models reduce the simulation time required by detailed dynamic models of multiturbine systems.In this paper, a new behavioral model representing the aggregate contribution of several variable-speed-pitch-controlled wind turbines is introduced. It is particularly suitable for the simulation of short term power fluctuations due to wind turbulence, where steady-state models are not applicable.The model relies on the output rescaling of a single turbine dynamic model. The single turbine output is divided into its steady state and dynamic components, which are then multiplied by different scaling factors. The smoothing effect due to wind incoherence at different locations inside a wind farm is taken into account by filtering the steady state power curve by means of a Gaussian filter as well as applying a proper damping on the dynamic part.The model has been developed to be one of the building-blocks of a model of a large electrical system, therefore a significant reduction of simulation time has been pursued. Comparison against a full model obtained by repeating a detailed single turbine model, shows that a proper trade-off between accuracy and computational speed has been achieved.     

Dynamic modelling in development plannin

In this paper a dynamic regional model is proposed, aimed at understanding and forecasting the dynamic response of the population to many different investment policies in the agricultural, services and industrial sectors. In spite of its generality, the model has been conceived in order to be applied to underdeveloped regions. Particularly, from the demographic point of view, attention has been focused on migration phenomena; from the economic point of view, attention has been focused mainly on the rate of growth of the capital stock.

Modularity is another feature of the proposed model; it is made of seven submodels which describe in a very aggregated form the evolution of the regional socio-economic system. The outputs of the submodels are then spatially distributed using a set of ‘spatial operators’ which take into account many social and economic factors relevant to the sub-areas into which the region can be divided.     

基于遗传算子粒子群算法的拖轮动态调度

随着中国港口的发展,进出港口的船舶日益增多,使用拖轮的艘次逐渐增加.而当前极大部分港口所采用的基于人工经验的拖轮调度方案已难以保证船舶的顺利进出港口.如何根据复杂多变的进出港情况来制定合理的拖轮调度方案,已成为当前众多港口迫切需要解决的问题之一.通过分析港口拖轮作业过程与特点,建立了拖轮动态调度的数学模型,采用了基于动态遗传算子的改进粒子群优化算法对该模型进行求解.案例分析表明该拖轮动态调度模型是有效的.通过和传统粒子群算法对比分析,基于遗传算子的粒子群算法不仅在收敛速度上有明显的提高,而且求得的解更优.为港口拖轮动态调度的科学决策提供了依据.     

一类区域经济发展的系统动力学模型

本文针对区域经济发展过程中的相互作用问题 ,运用微分动力系统的理论与方法 ,建立了一类区域经济发展的系统动力学模型 ,并就实际问题进行分析 ,得到了相应比较好的结果