Computational and mathematical approaches to societal transitions

After an introduction of the theoretical framework and concepts of transition studies, this article gives an overview of how structural change in social systems has been studied from various disciplinary perspectives. This overview first leads to the conclusion that computational and mathematical approaches and their practical form, modeling, up till now, have been almost absent in the research and theorizing of structural change or transitions in social systems. Second, this review of the social science literature suggests numerous theoretical constructs relevant for transition modeling. Relevant concepts include the conceptualization of the micro-to-macro link, the importance of explaining both stability and change, quantitative and qualitative definitions of structural change, the use of dichotomies, synchronic and diachronic reasoning in explaining structural change, definitions of basic patterns of social change, the conceptualization of resistance to change and intentional and normative aspects of social change. This article employs these theoretical concepts to describe and discuss the models presented in this special issue in order to develop an understanding of what exactly entails a computational or mathematical approach to societal transitions.

The dynamics of functioning investigating societal transitions with partial differential equations

In this article a mathematical framework is introduced and explored for the study of processes in societal transitions. A transition is conceptualised as a fundamental shift in the functioning of a societal system. The framework views functioning as a real-valued field defined upon a real variable. The initial status quo prior to a transition is captured in a field called the regime and the alternative that possibly takes over is represented in a field called a niche. Think for example of a transition in an energy supply system, where the regime could be centrally produced, fossil fuel based energy supply and a niche decentralised renewable energy production. The article then proceeds to translate theoretical notions on the interactions and dynamics of regimes and niches from transition literature into the language of this framework. This is subsequently elaborated in some simple models and studied analytically or by means of computer simulation.

Studying transition dynamics via focusing on underlying feedback interactions

The emerging need for societal transitions raises the need for a better understanding of the dynamic nature of large scale societal systems, and therefore the development of an analytical approach for drawing dynamic conclusions based on system’s dynamic mechanisms, feedback relationships and interacting components. The objective of this study is to explore the degree to which System Dynamics as an approach enhances the process of understanding transition dynamics in socio-technical systems. In other words, it is aimed to reveal the type of insights that can be developed about such systems and their dynamic behaviour using the approach, as well as the shortcomings of the approach in this challenging task. In order to do so, a modeling study aiming to understand the underlying mechanisms of the waste management transition in the Netherlands is conducted. The quantitative model developed is based on the historical case of the waste management transition of the Netherlands, and it portrays issues as the dynamics of actors’ preferences, development of infrastructure and environmental consequences of dominant mode of functioning and provides an instance for demonstrating and evaluating the feedback-focused perspective discussed in this paper. Finally, the paper discusses a set of points regarding the utilized approach, System Dynamics, observed during this study both in general and in the specific context of transitions. In short, System Dynamics stands as a promising approach mainly due to its strength in explaining the source of complex dynamics based on interacting feedback loops, but it also has certain drawbacks in the context of transitions.

Simplicity and reality in computational modeling of politics

Modeling a polity based on viable scientific concepts and theoretical understanding has been a challenge in computational social science and social simulation in general and political science in particular. This paper presents a computational model of a polity (political system) in progressive versions from simple to more realistic. The model, called SimPol to highlight the fundamental structures and processes of politics in a generic society, is developed using the combined methodologies of object-based modeling (OOM), the Unified Modeling Language (UML), and the methodology of Lakatos’ research programs. SimPol demonstrates that computational models of entire political systems are methodologically feasible and scientifically viable; they can also build on and progress beyond previous theory and research to advance our understanding of how polities operate across a variety of domains (simple vs. complex) and levels of analysis (local, national, international). Both simple and realistic models are necessary, for theoretical and empirical purposes, respectively.

Shape up or ship out: social networks,turnover, and organizational culture

This paper considers a formal model of cultural transmission in organizations, examining the interplay of structured social influence and organizational demography. A set of focused and fine-grained computational experiments elucidates this model’s assumptions, facilitates deeper explanations for some of its behavior, and explores the robustness and scope conditions of previously published conclusions. In doing so, this investigation highlights several important issues in the design and evaluation of computational experiments.

Reference and Incommensurability: What Rigid Designation Won’t Get You

Causal theories of reference in the philosophy of language and philosophy of science have suggested that it could resolve lingering worries about incommensurability between theoretical claims in different paradigms, to borrow Kuhn’s terms. If we co-refer throughout different paradigms, then the problems of incommensurability are greatly diminished, according to causal theorists. I argue that assuring ourselves of that sort of constancy of reference will require comparable sorts of cross-paradigm affinities, and thus provides us with no special relief on this problem. Suggestions on how to think about rigid designation across paradigms are included.

Margins for Error and Sensitivity: What Nozick Might Have Said

Timothy Williamson has provided damaging counterexamples to Robert Nozick’s sensitivity principle. The examples are based on Williamson’s anti-luminosity arguments, and they show how knowledge requires a margin for error that appears to be incompatible with sensitivity. I explain how Nozick can rescue sensitivity from Williamson’s counterexamples by appeal to a specific conception of the methods by which an agent forms a belief. I also defend the proposed conception of methods against Williamson’s criticisms.

A Critique of Armstrong’s Truthmaking Account of Possibility

In this paper I argue against Armstrong’s recent truthmaking account of possibility. I show that the truthmaking account presupposes modality in a number of different ways, and consequently that it is incapable of underwriting a genuine reduction of modality. I also argue that Armstrong’s account faces serious difficulties irrespective of the question of reduction; in particular, I argue that his Entailment and Possibility Principles are both false.

True Antecedents

In this note I discuss what seems to be a new kind of counterexample to Lewis’s account of counterfactuals. A coin is to be tossed twice. I bet on ‘Two heads’, and I win. Common sense says that (1) is false. But Lewis’s theory says that it is true. (1) If at least one head had come up, I would have won.

Some Advantages of One Form of Argument for the Maximin Principle

This paper presents a non-consequentialist defense of Rawls’s general conception of justice requiring that primary social goods be distributed so that the least share is as great as possible. It suggests that a defense of this idea can be offered within a Rossian framework of prima facie duties. The prima facie duty not to harm constrains people from supporting social institutions which do not leave their fellows with goods and resources above a certain threshold. The paper argues that societies in accord with the Rawlsian general conception come closest to meeting this requirement. This way of arguing for the conception enables the defenders of the theory to elude standard objections offered by utilitarians, libertarians, and even other egalitarians.

Individual behavior and macro social properties. An agent-based model

The paper aims at presenting an agent-based modeling exercise to illustrate how small differences in the cognitive properties of agents can generate very different macro social properties. We argue that it is not necessary to assume highly complicated cognitive architectures to introduce cognitive properties that matter for computational social science purposes. Our model is based on different simulation settings characterized by a gradual sophistication of behavior of agents, from simple heuristics to macro-micro feedback and other second-order properties. Agents are localized in a spatial interaction context. They have an individual task but are influenced by a collective coordination problem. The simulation results show that agents can generate efficiency at a macro level particularly when socio-cognitive sophistication of their behavior increases.

Anomaly detection in a mobile communication network

Mobile communication networks produce massive amounts of data which may be useful in identifying the location of an emergency situation and the area it affects. We propose a one pass clustering algorithm for quickly identifying anomalous data points. We evaluate this algorithm’s ability to detect outliers in a data set and describe how such an algorithm may be used as a component of an emergency response management system.

Understanding the Small Object Argument

The small object argument is a transfinite construction which, starting from a set of maps in a category, generates a weak factorisation system on that category. As useful as it is, the small object argument has some problematic aspects: it possesses no universal property; it does not converge; and it does not seem to be related to other transfinite constructions occurring in categorical algebra. In this paper, we give an “algebraic” refinement of the small object argument, cast in terms of Grandis and Tholen’s natural weak factorisation systems, which rectifies each of these three deficiencies.

Transglobal Evidentialism-Reliabilism

We propose an approach to epistemic justification that incorporates elements of both reliabilism and evidentialism, while also transforming these elements in significant ways. After briefly describing and motivating the non-standard version of reliabilism that Henderson and Horgan call “transglobal” reliabilism, we harness some of Henderson and Horgan’s conceptual machinery to provide a non-reliabilist account of propositional justification (i.e., evidential support). We then invoke this account, together with the notion of a transglobally reliable belief-forming process, to give an account of doxastic justification.

Conversational Implicatures and Cancellability

In this paper I argue against a criticism by Matthew Weiner to Grice’s thesis that cancellability is a necessary condition for conversational implicature. I argue that the purported counterexamples fail because the supposed failed cancellation in the cases Weiner presents is not meant as a cancellation but as a reinforcement of the implicature. I moreover point out that there are special situations in which the supposed cancellation may really work as a cancellation.

Evolving networks for social optima in the “weakest link game”

Previous models have applied evolving networks based on node-level “copy and rewire” rules to simple two player games (e.g. the Prisoner’s Dilemma). It was found that such models tended to evolve toward socially optimal behavior. Here we apply a similar technique to a more tricky co-ordination game (the weakest link game) requiring interactions from several players (nodes) that may play several strategies. We define a variant of the game with several equilibria—each offering increasing social benefit. We found that the evolving network functions to select and spread more optimal equilibria while resisting invasion by lower ones. Hence the network acts as a kind of “social ratchet” selecting for increasing social benefit. Such networks have applications in peer-to-peer computing and may have implications for understanding social systems.

Online Resources in Mathematics, Teachers’ Geneses and Didactical Techniques

The study we present here concerns the consequences of integrating online resources into the teaching of mathematics. We focus on the interaction between teachers and specific online resources they draw on: e-exercise bases. We propose a theoretical approach to study the associated phenomena, combining instrumental and anthropological perspectives. For given didactical tasks, we observe teachers’ instrumental geneses, and the didactical techniques they develop. We exemplify our approach with the analysis of a case study of trigonometry in grade 9.

Sperm, Eggs and Hunks: Biological Origins and Identity

In several publications Graeme Forbes has developed and defended one of the strongest arguments for essentialism about biological origins. I attempt to show that there are deep, as yet unrecognized, problems with this argument. The problems with Forbes’s argument suggest that a range of other arguments for various forms of origin essentialism are also likely to be flawed, and that we should abandon the seemingly plausible general metaphysical thesis that concrete entities that share all intrinsic properties are identical.

On the Relevance of Supervenience Theses to Physicalism

This paper is an investigation into the nature of physicalism as well as to the possibility of formulating physicalism as a supervenience thesis. First, I review the motivation for finding a supervenience thesis that characterizes physicalism. Second, I briefly survey the types of supervenience theses that have been proposed as necessary (or, in some cases, as necessary and sufficient) for physicalism. Third, I analyze the recent supervenience thesis proposed by Frank Jackson and expounded upon by Gene Witmer. Jackson claims the supervenience thesis is both necessary and sufficient for physicalism; Witmer has proposed a different interpretation of one of the Jackson’s key notions and has suggested an amended supervenience thesis that is, if not sufficient, at least necessary for physicalism. However, I will argue that neither Jackson’s nor Witmer’s supervenience theses as stated are necessary for physicalism.