Limit distributions for the maxima of stationary Gaussian processes

Let {X_n} be a stationary Gaussian sequence with E{X₀} = 0, {X²₀} = 1 and E{X₀X_n} = rⁿ_n Let c_n = (2ln n)^{$\text{built1}\text{2}$}, b_n = c_n? $\text{1}\text{2}$c^-1_n ln(4π ln n), and set M_n = max_{0 ?k?n}X_k. A classical result for independent normal random variables is that

$\text{P[c}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{(M}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{?b}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{)?x]→exp[-e}{}^{\mathrm{-x}}\text{] as n → ∞ for all x.}$

Berman has shown that (1) applies as well to dependent sequences provided r_nlnn = o(1). Suppose now that {r_n} is a convex correlation sequence satisfying r_n = o(1), (r_nlnn)^-1 is monotone for large n and o(1). Then

$\text{P[r}{}_{\mathrm{n}}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>-1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{(M}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{? (1?r}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{)}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{b}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{)?x] → Ф(x)}$

for all x, where Ф is the normal distribution function. While the normal can thus be viewed as a second natural limit distribution for {M_n}, there are others. In particular, the limit distribution is given below when r_n is (sufficiently close to) γ/ln n. We further exhibit a collection of limit distributions which can arise when r_n decays to zero in a nonsmooth manner. Continuous parameter Gaussian processes are also considered. A modified version of (1) has been given by Pickands for some continuous processes which possess sufficient asymptotic independence properties. Under a weaker form of asymptotic independence, we obtain a version of (2).     

On fair coin-tossing games

Let Ω be a finite set with k elements and for each integer $\text{n ≧ 1}$ let $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{= Ω × Ω × … × Ω}$ (n-tuple) and $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{= {(a}{}_1\text{, a}{}_2\text{,…, a}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{) | (a}{}_1\text{, a}{}_2\text{,…, a}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{) ∈ Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ and a_j ≠ a_j+1 for some 1 ≦ j ≦ n ? 1}. Let {Y_m} be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables such that P(Y₁ = a) = k^?1 for all a in Ω. In this paper, we obtain some very surprising and interesting results about the first occurrence of elements in $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ and in Ω?_n with respect to the stochastic process {Y_m}. The results here provide us with a better and deeper understanding of the fair coin-tossing (k-sided) process.     

Local asymptotic normality for progressively censored likelihood ratio statistics and applications

Let X_n,1 ≤ X_n,2 ≤ … ≤ X_n,n be the ordered variables corresponding to a random sample of size n with respect to a family of probability measures {P_θ:θ ∈ Θ} where Θ is an open subset of the real line. In many practical situations the X_n,i are the observables and experimentation must be curtailed prior to X_n,n. If τ_n is a stopping variable adapted to the σ-fields {σ(X_n,1,…,X_n,k): 1 ≤ k ≤ n} and P_n,θ the projection of P_θ onto σ(X_n,1,…,X_n,τn), the local asymptotic normality of the stopped progressively censored likelihood ratio statistics is established with θ, $\text{θ}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{= θ + un}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>?1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{∈ Θ}$ and θ, u held fixed, under certain conditions on the underlying distribution and on τ_n. Conditions are also given to ensure the local asymptotic normality of likelihood ratio statistics where the underlying observations are given in a series scheme.     

On the fair coin tossing process

Let Ω = {1, 0} and for each integer n ≥ 1 let $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{= Ω × Ω × … × Ω}$ (n-tuple) and $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}{}^{\mathrm{k}}\text{= {(a}{}_1\text{, a}{}_2\text{, …, a}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{)|(a}{}_1\text{, a}{}_2\text{, … , a}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{) ? Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{and}\text{Σ}{}_{\mathrm{i=1}}{}^{\mathrm{n}}\text{a}{}_{\mathrm{i}}\text{= k}}$ for all k = 0,1,…,n. Let {Y_m}_m≥1 be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables such that $\text{P(Y}{}_1\text{= 0) = P(Y}{}_1\text{= 1) =}\text{1}\text{2}$. For each A in $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$, let T_A be the first occurrence time of A with respect to the stochastic process {Y_m}_m≥1. R. Chen and A.Zame (1979, J. Multivariate Anal. 9, 150–157) prove that if n ≥ 3, then for each element A in $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$, there is an element B in $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ such that the probability that T_B is less than T_A is greater than $\text{1}\text{2}$. This result is sharpened as follows: (I) for n ≥ 4 and 1 ≤ k ≤ n ? 1, each element A in $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}{}^{\mathrm{k}}$, there is an element B also in $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}{}^{\mathrm{k}}$ such that the probability that T_B is less than T_A is greater than $\text{1}\text{2}$; (II) for n ≥ 4 and 1 ≤ k ≤ n ? 1, each element A = (a₁, a₂,…,a_n) in $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}{}^{\mathrm{k}}$, there is an element C also in $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}{}^{\mathrm{k}}$ such that the probability that T_A is less than T_C is greater than $\text{1}\text{2}$ if n ≠ 2m or n = 2m but a_i = a_{i + 1} for some 1 ≤ i ≤ n?1. These new results provide us with a better and deeper understanding of the fair coin tossing process.     

A note on a theorem of heath

We propose a generalization of Heath's theorem that semi-metric spaces with point-countable bases are developable: A semi-metrizable space X is developabale if (and only if) there is on it a σ-discrete family $\text{C}\text{=?}{}_{\mathrm{m?N}}\text{C}{}_{\mathrm{m}}$ of closed sets, interior-preserving over each member C of which is a countable family {$\text{D}$_n(C): n ∈ N} of collections of open sets such that if U is a neighbourhood of ξ∈X, then there are such a Γ∈$\text{C}$ and such a v∈ N that ξ ? Γ and ξ∈ int ∩ (D: ξ: D∈$\text{D}$_v(Γ))?U.     

A functional central limit theorem for ϱ-mixing sequences

In this note a functional central limit theorem for ?-mixing sequences of I. A. Ibragimov (Theory Probab. Appl.20 (1975), 135–141) is generalized to nonstationary sequences (X_n)_n ∈ $\text{N}$, satisfying some assumptions on the variances and the moment condition $\text{E |X}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{|}{}^{\mathrm{2\; +\; b}}\text{= O(n}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>b</mtext><mtext>2</mtext><mtext>??</mtext>}}\text{)}$ for some b > 0, ? > 0.     

Estimation d'une rupture en dépendance faibleChange point estimation for a weakly dependent sequence

Let $\text{(X}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{,Y}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{)}{}_{\mathrm{<mtext>n\in </mtext><mtext>N</mtext>}}$ be a stationary sequence governed by the model Y_n=m(X_n)+σ(X_n)ε_n where $\text{(ε}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{)}{}_{\mathrm{<mtext>n\in </mtext><mtext>N</mtext>}}$ is i.i.d. and independent from $\text{(X}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{)}{}_{\mathrm{<mtext>n\in </mtext><mtext>N</mtext>}}\text{.}$ The latter sequence satisfy a weak dependence condition proposed by Doukhan and Louhichi in [2]. We provide a Central Limit Theorem for jumps in the regression function. Our method deals with linear local regression described in [4]. We use a variation on Lindeberg–Rio method as in [5]. To cite this article: P. Ango Nze, C. Prieur, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 335 (2002) 267–270.     

Sufficient conditions for ergodicity and recurrence of Markov chains on a general state space

Let {X_n} be a ?-irreducible Markov chain on an arbitrary space. Sufficient conditions are given under which the chain is ergodic or recurrent. These extend known results for chains on a countable state space. In particular, it is shown that if the space is a normed topological space, then under some continuity conditions on the transition probabilities of {X_n} the conditions for ergodicity will be met if there is a compact set K and an ? > 0 such that $\text{E}\text{{6X}{}_{\mathrm{n+1}}\text{6 — 6X}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{6 ∣ X}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{= x} ? ??}$ whenever x lies outside K and $\text{E}\text{{6X}{}_{\mathrm{n+1}}\text{6 ∣ X}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{=x}}$ is bounded, x ∈ K; whilst the conditions for recurrence will be met if there exists a compact K with $\text{E}\text{{6X}{}_{\mathrm{n+1}}\text{6 ? 6X}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{6 ∣ X}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{= x} ? 0}$ for all x outside K. An application to queueing theory is given.     

On Berry-Esséen rates,a law of the iterated logarithm and an invariance principle for the proportion of the sample below the sample mean

Let F_n(x) be the empirical distribution function based on n independent random variables X₁,…,X_n from a common distribution function F(x), and let $\text{X}\text{= Σ}{}_{\mathrm{i=1}}{}^{\mathrm{n}}\text{X}{}_{\mathrm{i}}\text{n}$ be the sample mean. We derive the rate of convergence of $\text{F}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{(}\text{X}\text{)}$ to normality (for the regular as well as nonregular cases), a law of iterated logarithm, and an invariance principle for $\text{F}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{(}\text{X}\text{)}$.     

Three problems on the lengths of increasing runs

Let U₁, U₂,… be a sequence of independent, uniform (0, 1) r.v.'s and let R₁, R₂,… be the lengths of increasing runs of {U_i}, i.e., X₁=R₁=inf{i:U_i+1<U_i},…, X_n=R₁+R₂+?+R_n=inf{i:i>X_n?1,U_i+1<U_i}. The first theorem states that the sequence $\text{(}\text{3}\text{2}\text{n)}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{(X}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{?2n)}$ can be approximated by a Wiener process in strong sense.Let τ(n) be the largest integer for which R₁+R₂+?+R_τ(n)?n, $\text{R}{}^1{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{=n?(R}{}_1\text{+R}{}_2\text{+?+R}{}_{\mathrm{\tau (n)}}\text{)}$ and $\text{M}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{=}\text{max}\text{{R}{}_1\text{,R}{}_2\text{,…,R}{}_{\mathrm{\tau (n)}}\text{,R}{}^1{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{}}$. Here M_n is the length of the longest increasing block. A strong theorem is given to characterize the limit behaviour of M_n.The limit distribution of the lengths of increasing runs is our third problem.     

Filtrations for the two parameter jump process

A process which has just one jump, and whose time parameter is the positive quadrant [0, ∞] × [0, ∞], is considered. Following Merzbach, related stopping lines are introduced, and the filtration {$\text{F}$_t1,t2³} considered in this paper is such that, modulo completion, the σ-field $\text{F}$_t1,t2³ is the Borel field on the region

$\text{L}{}_{\mathrm{t1,t2}}\text{={(s}{}_1\text{,s}{}_2\text{); 0?s}{}_1\text{?t}{}_1\text{or}\text{0?s}{}_2\text{?t}{}_2\text{}}$

, together with the atom which is the complement in Ω = [0, ∞]² of L_t1,t2. Optional and predictable projections of related processes are defined, together with their dual projections, and an integral representation for martingales is obtained.     

A remark on the tail probability of a distribution

Let {X_n}_n≥1 be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. For each integer n ≥ 1 and positive constants r, t, and ?, let S_n = Σ_j=1ⁿX_j and $\text{E{N}{}_{\mathrm{\infty }}\text{(r, t, ?)} = Σ}{}_{\mathrm{n=1}}{}^{\mathrm{\infty }}\text{n}{}^{\mathrm{r?2}}\text{P{|S}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{| > ?n}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>r</mtext><mtext>t</mtext>}}\text{}}$. In this paper, we prove that (1) lim_?→0+?^α(r?1)E{N_∞(r, t, ?)} = K(r, t) if E(X₁) = 0, Var(X₁) = 1, and E(| X₁ |^t) < ∞, where 2 ≤ t < 2r ≤ 2t, $\text{K(r, t) =}\text{{2}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>\alpha (r?1)</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{Γ(}\text{(1 + α(r ? 1))}\text{2}\text{)}}\text{{(r ? 1) Γ(}\text{1}\text{2}\text{)}}$, and $\text{α =}\text{2t}\text{(2r ? t)}$; (2) $\text{lim}{}_{\mathrm{?\to 0+}}\text{G(t, ?)}\text{H(t, ?)}\text{= 0}$ if 2 < t < 4, E(X₁) = 0, Var(X₁) > 0, and E(|X₁|^t) < ∞, where G(t, ?) = E{N_∞(t, t, ?)} = Σ_n=1^∞n^t?2P{| S_n | > ?n} → ∞ as ? → 0+ and $\text{H(t, ?) = E{N}{}_{\mathrm{\infty }}\text{(t, t, ?)} = Σ}{}_{\mathrm{n=1}}{}^{\mathrm{\infty }}\text{n}{}^{\mathrm{t?2}}\text{P{| S}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{| > ?n}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>2</mtext><mtext>t</mtext>}}\text{} → ∞}\text{as}\text{? → 0+}$, i.e., H(t, ?) goes to infinity much faster than G(t, ?) as ? → 0+ if 2 < t < 4, E(X₁) = 0, Var(X₁) > 0, and E(| X₁ |^t) < ∞. Our results provide us with a much better and deeper understanding of the tail probability of a distribution.     

Extreme value distribution for normalized sums from stationary Gaussian sequences

Let {X_i, i?0} be a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables with finite absolute third moment. Then Darling and Erdös have shown that

for -∞<t<∞ where and $\text{X}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{= (2 ln ln n)}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}$. The result is extended to dependent sequences but assuming that {X_i} is a standard stationary Gaussian sequence with covariance function {r_i}. When {X_i} is moderately dependent (e.g. when $\text{v(∑}{}^{\mathrm{n}}{}_{\mathrm{i=1}}\text{X}{}_{\mathrm{i}}\text{) ? n}{}_{\mathrm{a}}\text{, 0 < a < 2)}$ we get

where H_a is a constant. In the strongly dependent case (e.g. when $\text{v(∑}{}^{\mathrm{n}}{}_{\mathrm{i=1}}\text{X}{}_{\mathrm{i}}\text{) ? n}{}^2\text{r(n))}$ we get

for-∞<t<∞.     

Laws of iterated logarithm of multiparameter wiener processes

Let {$\text{X(}\text{t}\text{) :}\text{t}\text{∈ R}{}_{\mathrm{+}}{}^{\mathrm{N}}$} denote the N-parameter Wiener process on $\text{R}{}_{\mathrm{+}}{}^{\mathrm{N}}\text{= [0, ∞)}{}^{\mathrm{n}}$. For multiple sequences of certain independent random variables the authors find lower bounds for the distributions of maximum of partial sums of these random variables, and as a consequence a useful upper bound for the yet unknown function , c ≥ 0, is obtained where D_N = Π_{k = 1}^N [0, T_k]. The latter bound is used to give three different varieties of N-parameter generalization of the classical law of iterated logarithm for the standard Brownian motion process.     

Convex polyhedra of doubly stochastic matrices. I. Applications of the permanent function

The permanent function is used to determine geometrical properties of the set $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ of all n × n nonnegative doubly stochastic matrices. If $\text{F}$ is a face of $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$, then $\text{F}$ corresponds to an n × n (0, 1)-matrix A, where the permanent of A is the number of vertices of $\text{F}$. If A is fully indecomposable, then the dimension of $\text{F}$ equals σ(A) ? 2n + 1, where σ(A) is the number of 1's in A. The only two-dimensional faces of $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ are triangles and rectangles. For n ? 6, $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ has four types of three-dimensional faces. The facets of the faces of $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ are characterized. Faces of $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ which are simplices are determined. If $\text{F}$ is a face of $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ which is two-neighborly but not a simplex, then $\text{F}$ has dimension 4 and six vertices. All k-dimensional faces with k + 2 vertices are determined. The maximum number of vertices of a k-dimensional face is 2^k. All k-dimensional faces with at least 2^k?1 + 1 vertices are determined.     

Convex polyhedra of doubly stochastic matrices: II. Graph of Ωn

Properties of the graph $\text{G(Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{)}$ of the polytope $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ of all n × n nonnegative doubly stochastic matrices are studied. If $\text{F}$ is a face of $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ which is not a k-dimensional rectangular parallelotope for k ≥ 2, then G($\text{F}$) is Hamilton connected. Prime factor decompositions of the graphs of faces of $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ relative to Cartesian product are investigated. In particular, if $\text{F}$ is a face of $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$, then the number of prime graphs in any prime factor decomposition of G($\text{F}$) equals the number of connected components of the neighborhood of any vertex of G($\text{F}$). Distance properties of the graphs of faces of $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ are obtained. Faces $\text{F}$ of $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ for which G($\text{F}$) is a clique of $\text{G(Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{)}$ are investigated.     

On a class of stopping times for M-estimators

For a given score function ψ = ψ(x, θ), let θ_n be Huber's M-estimator for an unknown population parameter θ. Under some mild smoothness assumptions it is known that $\text{n}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{(θ}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{? θ)}$ is asymptotically normal. In this paper the stopping times $\text{τ}{}_{\mathrm{c}}\text{(m) =}\text{inf}\text{{n ≥ m: n}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{|θ}{}_{\mathrm{n}}\text{? θ | > c }}$ associated with the sequence of confidence intervals for θ are investigated. A useful representation of M-estimators is derived, which is also appropriate for proving laws of the iterated logarithm and Donskertype invariance principles for (π_n)_n.     

Strong approximation theorems for density dependent Markov chains

A variety of continuous parameter Markov chains arising in applied probability (e.g. epidemic and chemical reaction models) can be obtained as solutions of equations of the form

$\text{X}{}_{\mathrm{N}}\text{(t)=x}{}_0\text{+∑}\text{1}\text{N}\text{lY}{}_1\text{N ∫}{}^{\mathrm{t}}{}_0\text{f}{}_1\text{(X}{}_{\mathrm{N}}\text{(s))ds}$

where $\text{l∈}\text{Z}{}^{\mathrm{t}}$, the Y₁ are independent Poisson processes, and N is a parameter with a natural interpretation (e.g. total population size or volume of a reacting solution).The corresponding deterministic model, satisfies

$\text{X(t)=x}{}_0\text{+ ∫}{}^{\mathrm{t}}{}_0\text{∑ lf}{}_1\text{(X(s))ds}$

Under very general conditions lim_N→∞X_N(t)=X(t) a.s. The process X_N(t) is compared to the diffusion processes given by

$\text{Z}{}_{\mathrm{N}}\text{(t)=x}{}_0\text{+∑}\text{1}\text{N}\text{lB}{}_1\text{N∫}{}^{\mathrm{t}}{}_0\text{ft(Z}{}_{\mathrm{N}}\text{(s))ds}$

and

$\text{V(t)=∑ l∫}{}^{\mathrm{t}}{}_0\text{f}{}_1\text{(X(s))}\text{d}\text{W}\text{?}{}_1\text{+∫}{}^{\mathrm{t}}{}_0\text{?F(X(s))·V(s)}\text{ds.}$

Under conditions satisfied by most of the applied probability models, it is shown that X_N,Z_N and V can be constructed on the same sample space in such a way that

$\text{X}{}_{\mathrm{N}}\text{(t)=Z}{}_{\mathrm{N}}\text{(t)+O}\text{logN}\text{N}$

and

$\text{N}\text{(X}{}_{\mathrm{N}}\text{(t)?X(t))=V(t)+O}\text{log N}\text{N}$

     

Common strict character of some sharp infinite-sequence martingale inequalities

A procedure is given for proving strictness of some sharp, infinite-sequence martingale inequalities, which arise from sharp, finite-sequence martingale inequalities attained by degenerating extremal distributions. The procedure is applied to obtain strictness of the sharp inequalities of Cox and Kemperman

$\text{P(|X}{}_{\mathrm{i}}\text{|?1 for some i=1, 2,…)?(ln 2)}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}\text{sup}\text{n}\text{E}\text{∑}\text{i=0}\text{n}\text{X}{}_{\mathrm{i}}$

and of Cox (sharp form of Burkholder's inequality)

$\text{P}\text{∑}\text{i=0}\text{∞}\text{X}{}^2{}_{\mathrm{i}}\text{?1}\text{? e}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{sup}\text{n}\text{E}\text{∑}\text{i=0}\text{n}\text{X}{}_{\mathrm{i}}$

for all nontrivial martingale difference sequences X₀,X₁,….     

Convex polyhedra of doubly stochastic matrices III. Affine and combinatorial properties of Ωn

Affine and combinatorial properties of the polytope $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ of all n × n nonnegative doubly stochastic matrices are investigated. One consequence of this investigation is that if $\text{F}$ is a face of $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ of dimension d > 2, then $\text{F}$ has at most 3(d?1) facets. The special faces of $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ which were characterized in Part I of our study of $\text{Ω}{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ in terms of the corresponding (0, 1)- matrices are classified with respect to affine equivalence.