MARKOV SKELETON PROCESS IN PERT NETWORKS

In this article, we investigate Programming Evaluation and Review Technique networks with independently and generally distributed activity durations. For any path in this network, we select all the activities related to this path such that the completion time of the sub-network （only consisting of all the related activities） is equal to the completion time of this path. We use the elapsed time as the supplementary variables and model this sub-network as a Markov skeleton process, the state space is related to the subnetwork structure. Then use the backward equation to compute the distribution of the sub-network＇s completion time, which is an important rule in project management and scheduling.     

马尔可夫骨架PERT网络的最长路径

本文利用马尔可夫骨架过程理论研究PERT网络模型，其中网络各弧线的长度是相互独立的随机变量。文中构造了一个马尔可夫骨架过程，利用其向后方程求解随机网络最长路径长度的分布函数。     

A project game for PERT networks

An important topic in PERT networks is how to allocate the total expedition (or delay) for situations in which the project is not executed as planned. In order to do that we define a TU project game that satisfies some desirable properties from the management project and game theory point of view.     

Markov Skeleton Processes and Applications to Queueing Systems

In this paper, we apply the backward equations of Markov skeleton processes to qucueing systems. The transient distribution of the waiting time of a GI/G/1 queueing system, the transient distribution of the length of a GI/G/N queueing system and the transient distribution of the length of queueing networks are obtained.     

工程管理的马尔可夫骨架过程建模

在以前,一个工程项目的进程的管理问题在各工段的施工时间为相互独立且都服从负指数分布的假设下通过一个网络图化为对一个马尔可夫链的控制和优化的研究.本文在一般情况下(放弃对各工程段的时间服从负指数分布的假设)把工程项目进程的管理问题化为对一个马尔可夫骨架过程的控制和优化问题.     

Time-cost trade-off via optimal control theory in Markov PERT networks

We develop a new analytical model for the time-cost trade-off problem via optimal control theory in Markov PERT networks. It is assumed that the activity durations are independent random variables with generalized Erlang distributions, in which the mean duration of each activity is a non-increasing function of the amount of resource allocated to it. Then, we construct a multi-objective optimal control problem, in which the first objective is the minimization of the total direct costs of the project, in which the direct cost of each activity is a non-decreasing function of the resources allocated to it, the second objective is the minimization of the mean of project completion time and the third objective is the minimization of the variance of project completion time. Finally, two multi-objective decision techniques, viz, goal attainment and goal programming are applied to solve this multi-objective optimal control problem and obtain the optimal resources allocated to the activities or the control vector of the problem     

商店出售易腐烂物品所得收益的马尔可夫骨架过程建模

本文中,我们应用马尔可夫骨架过程的理论建立了商店出售易腐烂物品所得盈利的数学模型,并且用向后方程刻画了盈利额的一维分布.     

关于SARS病毒传播的马尔可夫骨架过程模型

根据SARS病毒传播的特性和侯振挺等人提出的马尔可夫骨架过程理论，建立了SARS病毒传播的马尔可夫骨架模型，并得出结论，在任一时刻的疑似病例数，传染病人数是某非负线性方程组的最小非负解。     

Markov process functionals in finance and insurance

The Markov property of Markov process functionals which are frequently used in economy, finance, engineering and statistic analysis is studied. The conditions to judge Markov property of some important Markov process functionals are presented, the following conclusions are obtained： the multidimensional process with independent increments is a multidimensional Markov process; the functional in the form of path integral of process with independent increments is a Markov process; the surplus process with the doubly stochastic Poisson process is a vector Markov process. The conditions for linear transformation of vector Markov process being still a Markov process are given.     

一个绘制统筹图的算法

统筹图又叫计划网络图。任给一个其元素叫做工序（或作业或活动）的有限偏序集，要绘制它的一个最优统筹图，限含虚工序数目为最少者，是一个尚未从理论上解决的问题。本文讨论了虚工序产生的原因和如何减少虚工序数量的一些途径；指出了高度为二的编序集其最优统筹图含虚工序数目达到最大且等于该偏序集框图的边数的充分必要条件；本文给出了一个绘制最优统筹图的近似算法，此算法弥补了文[2]和[3]所给算法的一些不足之处。     

Bernoulli thinning of a Markov renewal process

A Bernoulli thinning of a Markov renewal process is investigated. The properties of the thinned process are considered and are related to the properties of the original process. The parameters, moments and equilibrium of the thinned process are determined in terms of the parameters defining the underlying Markov renewal process. Results are illustrated by examples. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On optimization of continuous-time Markov networks in distributed computing

The paper presents a new stochastic model for studying the optimization of functioning rules in distributed computing. In this model a network is represented by a finite number of continuous-time homogeneous Markov processes which are connected by relations between entries of their intensity matrices. Good functioning rules are those optimizing a guide function defined according to the context. Two specific optimization problems are studied: a problem of resource allocation with conflicts between processes, and a problem of access to shared resources. The latter is a linearly constrained nonconvex problem with an objective function which is a sum of ratios of linear functions of special form.     

马氏骨架理论在系统可靠性中的应用

本文利用侯振挺等人提出的马尔可夫骨架过程理论讨论了串——并联混合系统的可靠性.该模型有四个不同部件和一个修理工组成,部件的寿命和修理时间均服从一般分布.     

Asymptotic expansions of backward equations for two-time-scale Markov chains in continuous time

This work develops asymptotic expansions for solutions of systems of backward equations of time- inhomogeneous Maxkov chains in continuous time. Owing to the rapid progress in technology and the increasing complexity in modeling, the underlying Maxkov chains often have large state spaces, which make the computa- tional tasks ihfeasible. To reduce the complexity, two-time-scale formulations are used. By introducing a small parameter ε〉 0 and using suitable decomposition and aggregation procedures, it is formulated as a singular perturbation problem. Both Markov chains having recurrent states only and Maxkov chains including also tran- sient states are treated. Under certain weak irreducibility and smoothness conditions of the generators, the desired asymptotic expansions axe constructed. Then error bounds are obtained.     

On path correlation and PERT bias

Most studies of project time estimation assume that (a) activity times are mutually independent random variables; many also assume that (b) path completion times are mutually independent. In this paper, we subject the impact of both these assumptions to close scrutiny. Using tools from multivariate analysis, we make a theoretical study of the direction of the error in the classical PERT method of estimating mean project completion time when correlation is ignored. We also investigate the effect of activity dependence on the normality of path length via simulation.     

The age of a Markov process

The concept of a limiting conditional age distribution of a continuous time Markov process whose state space is the set of non-negative integers and for which {0} is absorbing is defined as the weak limit as t→∞ of the last time before t an associated “return” Markov process exited from {0} conditional on the state, j, of this process at t. It is shown that this limit exists and is non-defective if the return process is ρ-recurrent and satisfies the strong ratio limit property. As a preliminary to the proof of the main results some general results are established on the representation of the ρ-invariant measure and function of a Markov process. The conditions of the main results are shown to be satisfied by the return process constructed from a Markov branching process and by birth and death processes. Finally, a number of limit theorems for the limiting age as j→∞ are given.     

Interconnections of Markov chains and quasi-reversible queuing networks

A quasi-reversible queue can be associated with certain type of transactions of a Markov chain. It is shown that if Markov chains are coupled in a certain way, then to the resulting chain be associated a queuing network which is itself quasi-reversible and the stationary distribution of the chain takes the product form. The product form for mixed networks is derived from the result for open networks.     

马尔可夫骨架过程的极限分布

本文运用基本更新定理和Smith关键更新定理等理论和方法,对马尔可夫骨架过程的极限分布进行深入研究,得到主要结果如下:去掉了原有结果中要求的绝对连续的条件,给出了马尔可夫骨架过程极限分布存在的充分条件;得到了马尔可夫骨架过程极限分布的具体公式,并证明了该极限分布为概率分布.     

The minimal solution of a Markov renewal equation

Given a killed Markov process, one can use a procedure of Ikedaet al. to revive the process at the killing times. The revived process is again a Markov process and its transition function is the minimal solution of a Markov renewal equation. In this paper we will calculate such solutions for a class of revived processes.