Spatio-temporal stationary covariance models

Stationary covariance functions that model space-time interactions are in great demand. The goal of this paper is to introduce and develop new spatio-temporal stationary covariance models. Integral representations for covariance functions with certain properties, such as α-symmetry in the spatial lag, are established. Mixture models are proposed through purely spatial and temporal covariance functions.     

Spatial autoregression and related spatio-temporal models

We propose a spatial autoregressive random field of order p on the spatial domain for p?2 in this paper, whose univariate margins are the continuous-time autoregression of order p on the real line, and introduce a class of semiparametric spatio-temporal covariance models stationary in space with the spatial autoregressive margin.     

Dynamically evolving Gaussian spatial fields

We discuss general non-stationary spatio-temporal surfaces that involve dynamics governed by velocity fields. The approach formalizes and expands previously used models in analysis of satellite data of significant wave heights. We start with homogeneous spatial fields. By applying an extension of the standard moving average construction we obtain models which are stationary in time. The resulting surface changes with time but is dynamically inactive since its velocities, when sampled across the field, have distributions centered at zero. We introduce a dynamical evolution to such a field by composing it with a dynamical flow governed by a given velocity field. This leads to non-stationary models. The models are extensions of the earlier discretized autoregressive models which account for a local velocity of traveling surface. We demonstrate that for such a surface its dynamics is a combination of dynamics introduced by the flow and the dynamics resulting from the covariance structure of the underlying stochastic field. We extend this approach to fields that are only locally stationary and have their parameters varying over a larger spatio-temporal horizon.     

Quasi-arithmetic means of covariance functions with potential applications to space–time data

The theory of quasi-arithmetic means represents a powerful tool in the study of covariance functions across space–time. In the present study we use quasi-arithmetic functionals to make inferences about the permissibility of averages of functions that are not, in general, permissible covariance functions. This is the case, e.g., of the geometric and harmonic averages, for which we obtain permissibility criteria. Also, some important inequalities involving covariance functions and preference relations as well as algebraic properties can be derived by means of the proposed approach. In particular, quasi-arithmetic covariances allow for ordering and preference relations, for a Jensen-type inequality and for a minimal and maximal element of their class. The general results shown in this paper are then applied to the study of spatial and spatio-temporal random fields. In particular, we discuss the representation and smoothness properties of a weakly stationary random field with a quasi-arithmetic covariance function. Also, we show that the generator of the quasi-arithmetic means can be used as a link function in order to build a space–time nonseparable structure starting from the spatial and temporal margins, a procedure that is technically sound for those working with copulas. Several examples of new families of stationary covariances obtainable with this procedure are shown. Finally, we use quasi-arithmetic functionals to generalise existing results concerning the construction of nonstationary spatial covariances, and discuss the applicability and limits of this generalisation.     

宽平稳序列均方遍历性的两个充要条件(英文)

本文研究了宽平稳序列具有均方遍历性的充要条件问题.利用施瓦兹不等式,获得了复宽平稳序列均方遍历性的两个充要条件和一个易于验证的充分条件.     

Semiparametric Estimation and Selection for Nonstationary Spatial Covariance Functions

We propose a method for estimating nonstationary spatial covariance functions by representing a spatial process as a linear combination of some local basis functions with uncorrelated random coefficients and some stationary processes, based on spatial data sampled in space with repeated measurements. By incorporating a large collection of local basis functions with various scales at various locations and stationary processes with various degrees of smoothness, the model is flexible enough to represent a wide variety of nonstationary spatial features. The covariance estimation and model selection are formulated as a regression problem with the sample covariances as the response and the covariances corresponding to the local basis functions and the stationary processes as the predictors. A constrained least squares approach is applied to select appropriate basis functions and stationary processes as well as estimate parameters simultaneously. In addition, a constrained generalized least squares approach is proposed to further account for the dependencies among the response variables. A simulation experiment shows that our method performs well in both covariance function estimation and spatial prediction. The methodology is applied to a U.S. precipitation dataset for illustration. Supplemental materials relating to the application are available online.     

A three-step local smoothing approach for estimating the mean and covariance functions of spatio-temporal Data

Spatio-temporal data are common in practice. Existing methods for analyzing such data often employ parametric modelling with different sets of model assumptions. However, spatio-temporal data in practice often have complicated structures, including complex spatial and temporal data variation, latent spatio-temporal data correlation, and unknown data distribution. Because such data structures reflect the complicated impact of confounding variables, such as weather, demographic variables, life styles, and other cultural and environmental factors, they are usually too complicated to describe by parametric models. In this paper, we suggest a general modelling framework for estimating the mean and covariance functions of spatio-temporal data using a three-step local smoothing procedure. The suggested method can well accommodate the complicated structure of real spatio-temporal data. Under some regularity conditions, the consistency of the proposed estimators is established. Both simulation studies and a real-data application show that our proposed method could work well in practice.

     

A likelihood ratio test for separability of covariances

We propose a formal test of separability of covariance models based on a likelihood ratio statistic. The test is developed in the context of multivariate repeated measures (for example, several variables measured at multiple times on many subjects), but can also apply to a replicated spatio-temporal process and to problems in meteorology, where horizontal and vertical covariances are often assumed to be separable. Separable models are a common way to model spatio-temporal covariances because of the computational benefits resulting from the joint space-time covariance being factored into the product of a covariance function that depends only on space and a covariance function that depends only on time. We show that when the null hypothesis of separability holds, the distribution of the test statistic does not depend on the type of separable model. Thus, it is possible to develop reference distributions of the test statistic under the null hypothesis. These distributions are used to evaluate the power of the test for certain nonseparable models. The test does not require second-order stationarity, isotropy, or specification of a covariance model. We apply the test to a multivariate repeated measures problem.     

Regularity and Minimality of Infinite Variance Processes

For stationary processes with infinite variance the notions of covariance and spectrum are not defined. We characterize regularity and minimality of such processes in the spirit of some classical results for second-order processes, namely values of the process forming conditional basis for their spans. Several open problems are discussed.     

Asymptotically Stationary Processes on Amenable Groups

Abstract

Vector-valued, asymptotically stationary processes on σ-compact locally compact amenable groups are studied. For such processes, we introduce associated spectral measures. Using an “almost periodic Fourier transform,” one can identify the almost periodic spectrum of the asymptotically stationary covariance, and we construct a natural, consistent estimator for this almost periodic spectrum.     

Discrete Spectrum of Nonstationary Stochastic Processes on Groups

Vector-valued, asymptotically stationary stochastic processes on -compact locally compact abelian groups are studied. For such processes, we introduce a stationary spectral measure and show that it is discrete if and only if the asymptotically stationary covariance function is almost periodic. Using an almost periodic Fourier transform we recover the discrete part of the spectral measure and construct a natural, consistent estimator for the latter from samples of the process.     

基于平稳序列的沪深300股指期货最优套利点研究

基于正态分布和t分布的平稳序列前提,给出了沪深300股指期货跨期套利的最优套利点确定方法.通过对沪深300股指期货不同合约之间的差价进行平稳性检验,发现大部分差价具有平稳性,所以基本适用于给出的最优套利点分析方法.经过对5个平稳差价序列的最优套利点分析,发现△P_(12-07)=IF_(1212)-IF_(1207)和△P_(12-09)=IF_(1212)-IF_(1209)的套利期望收益较大,应该成为沪深300股指期货跨期套利的主要关注对象.     

On potentially negative space time covariances obtained as sum of products of marginal ones

Most of the literature on spatio-temporal covariance models proposes structures that are positive in the whole domain. However, problems of physical, biological or medical nature need covariance models allowing for negative values or oscillations from positive to negative values. In this paper, we propose an easy-to-implement and interpretable class of models that admits this type of covariances. We show particular analytical examples that may be of interest in the biometrical context. Work partially funded by grants GV04A724 (Generalitat Valenciana) and MTM2004-06231 (Spanish Ministry of Science and Education).     

Singularity among selfsimilar Gaussian random fields with different scaling parameters and others

Abstract

It is shown in this paper that the probability measures generated by selfsimilar Gaussian random fields are mutually singular, whenever they have different scaling parameters. So are those generated from a selfsimilar Gaussian random field and a stationary Gaussian random field. Certain conditions are also given for the singularity of the probability measures generated from two Gaussian random fields whose covariance functions are Schoenberg–Lévy kernels, and for those from stationary Gaussian random fields with spectral densities.     

Existence and Nonlinear Stability of Stationary Solutions to the Viscous Two-Phase Flow Model in a Half Line

The outflow problem for the viscous two-phase flow model in a half line is investigated in the present paper. The existence and uniqueness of the stationary solution is shown for both supersonic state and sonic state at spatial far field, and the nonlinear time stability of the stationary solution is also established in the weighted Sobolev space with either the exponential time decay rate for supersonic flow or the algebraic time decay rate for sonic flow.     

Shift ergodicity for stationary Markov processes

In this paper shift ergodicity and related topics are studied for certain stationary processes. We first present a simple proof of the conclusion that every stationary Markov process is a generalized convex combination of stationary ergodic Markov processes. A direct consequence is that a stationary distribution of a Markov process is extremal if and only if the corresponding stationary Markov process is time ergodic and every stationary distribution is a generalized convex combination of such extremal ones. We then consider space ergodicity for spin flip particle systems. We prove space shift ergodicity and mixing for certain extremal invariant measures for a class of spin systems, in which most of the typical models, such as the Voter Models and the Contact Models, are included. As a consequence of these results we see that for such systems, under each of those extremal invariant measures, the space and time means of an observable coincide, an important phenomenon in statistical physics. Our results provide partial answers to certain interesting problems in spin systems.     

Time series regression models with locally stationary disturbance

Time series linear regression models with stationary residuals are a well studied topic, and have been widely applied in a number of fields. However, the stationarity assumption on the residuals seems to be restrictive. The analysis of relatively long stretches of time series data that may contain changes in the spectrum is of interest in many areas. Locally stationary processes have time-varying spectral densities, the structure of which smoothly changes in time. Therefore, we extend the model to the case of locally stationary residuals. The best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) of vector of regression coefficients involves the residual covariance matrix which is usually unknown. Hence, we often use the least squares estimator (LSE), which is always feasible, but in general is not efficient. We evaluate the asymptotic covariance matrices of the BLUE and the LSE. We also study the efficiency of the LSE relative to the BLUE. Numerical examples illustrate the situation under locally stationary disturbances.     

Spatial Localization for Nonlinear Dynamical Stochastic Models for Excitable Media

Nonlinear dynamical stochastic models are ubiquitous in different areas. Their statistical properties are often of great interest, but are also very challenging to compute. Many excitable media models belong to such types of complex systems with large state dimensions and the associated covariance matrices have localized structures. In this article, a mathematical framework to understand the spatial localization for a large class of stochastically coupled nonlinear systems in high dimensions is developed. Rigorous \linebreak mathematical analysis shows that the local effect from the diffusion results in an exponential decay of the components in the covariance matrix as a function of the distance while the global effect due to the mean field interaction synchronizes different components and contributes to a global covariance. The analysis is based on a comparison with an appropriate linear surrogate model, of which the covariance propagation can be computed explicitly. Two important applications of these theoretical results are discussed. They are the spatial averaging strategy for efficiently sampling the covariance matrix and the localization technique in data assimilation. Test examples of a linear model and a stochastically coupled FitzHugh-Nagumo model for excitable media are adopted to validate the theoretical results. The latter is also used for a systematical study of the spatial averaging strategy in efficiently sampling the covariance matrix in different dynamical regimes.     

Statistical inference for functions of the covariance matrix in the stationary Gaussian time-orthogonal principal components model

We consider inference for functions of the marginal covariance matrix under a class of stationary vector time series models, referred to as time-orthogonal principal components models. The main application which motivated this work involves the estimation of configurational entropy from molecular dynamics simulations in computational chemistry, where current methods of entropy estimation involve calculations based on the sample covariance matrix. The theoretical results we obtain provide a basis for approximate inference procedures, including confidence interval calculations for scalar quantities of interest; these results are applied to the molecular dynamics application, and some further applications are discussed briefly.     

Adaptive Bayesian Nonstationary Modeling for Large Spatial Datasets Using Covariance Approximations

Gaussian process models have been widely used in spatial statistics but face tremendous modeling and computational challenges for very large nonstationary spatial datasets. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian modeling approach using a nonstationary covariance function constructed based on adaptively selected partitions. The partitioned nonstationary class allows one to knit together local covariance parameters into a valid global nonstationary covariance for prediction, where the local covariance parameters are allowed to be estimated within each partition to reduce computational cost. To further facilitate the computations in local covariance estimation and global prediction, we use the full-scale covariance approximation (FSA) approach for the Bayesian inference of our model. One of our contributions is to model the partitions stochastically by embedding a modified treed partitioning process into the hierarchical models that leads to automated partitioning and substantial computational benefits. We illustrate the utility of our method with simulation studies and the global Total Ozone Matrix Spectrometer (TOMS) data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.