Optimal core acquisition and remanufacturing policies under uncertain core quality fractions

Cores acquired by a remanufacturer are typically highly variable in quality. Even if the expected fractions of the various quality levels are known, then the exact fractions when acquiring cores are still uncertain. Our model incorporates this uncertainty in determining optimal acquisition decisions by considering multiple quality classes and a multinomial quality distribution for an acquired lot. We derive optimal acquisition and remanufacturing policies for both deterministic and uncertain demand. For deterministic demand, we derive a simple closed-form expression for the total expected cost. In a numerical experiment, we highlight the effect of uncertainty in quality fractions on the optimal number of acquired cores and show that the cost error of ignoring uncertainty can be significant. For uncertain demand, we derive optimal newsboy-type solutions for the optimal remanufacture-up-to levels and an approximate expression for the total expected cost given the number of acquired cores. In a further numerical experiment, we explore the effects of demand uncertainty on the optimal acquisition and remanufacturing decisions, and on the total expected cost.     

Planning under uncertainty using parallel computing

Industry and government routinely solve deterministic mathematical programs for planning and schelduling purposes, some involving thousands of variables with a linear or non-linear objective and inequality constraints. The solutions obtained are often ignored because they do not properly hedge against future contingencies. It is relatively easy to reformulate models to include uncertainty. The bottleneck has been (and is) our capability to solve them. The time is now ripe for finding a way to do so. To this end, we describe in this paper how large-scale system methods for solving multi-staged systems, such as Bender's Decomposition, high-speed sampling or Monte Carlo simulation, and parallel processors can be combined to solve some important planning problems involving uncertainty. For example, parallel processors may make it possible to come to better grips with the fundamental problems of planning, scheduling, design, and control of complex systems such as the economy, an industrial enterprise, an energy system, a water-resource system, military models for planning-and-control, decisions about investment, innovation, employment, and health-delivery systems.     

The p-median problem under uncertainty

Consider the need to currently locate p facilities but it is possible that up to q additional facilities will have to be located in the future. There are known probabilities that 0 ? r ? q facilities will need to be located. The p-median problem under uncertainty is to find the location of p facilities such that the expected value of the objective function in the future is minimized. The problem is formulated on a graph, properties of it are proven, an integer programming formulation is constructed, and heuristic algorithms are suggested for its solution. The heuristic algorithms are modified to reduce the run time by about two orders of magnitude with minimal effect on the quality of the solution. Optimal solutions for many problems are found effectively by CPLEX. Computational results using the heuristic algorithms are presented.     

Salesforce contracting under model uncertainty

This paper considers a firm's salesforce contracting problem under model uncertainty. Based on the notion of multiplier preferences, we capture model uncertainty and explicitly characterize the structure of the optimal contract. Our findings provide guidelines on the design of salesforce compensation contracts in practical situations.     

Cooperation under interval uncertainty

In this paper, the classical theory of two-person cooperative games is extended to two-person cooperative games with interval uncertainty. The core, balancedness, superadditivity and related topics are studied. Solutions called ψ ^α-values are introduced and characterizations are given.     

An interval-parameter fuzzy nonlinear optimization model for stream water quality management under uncertainty

Planning for water quality management systems is complicated by a variety of uncertainties and nonlinearities, where difficulties in formulating and solving the resulting inexact nonlinear optimization problems exist. With the purpose of tackling such difficulties, this paper presents the development of an interval-fuzzy nonlinear programming (IFNP) model for water quality management under uncertainty. Methods of interval and fuzzy programming were integrated within a general framework to address uncertainties in the left- and right-hand sides of the nonlinear constraints. Uncertainties in water quality, pollutant loading, and the system objective were reflected through the developed IFNP model. The method of piecewise linearization was developed for dealing with the nonlinearity of the objective function. A case study for water quality management planning in the Changsha section of the Xiangjiang River was then conducted for demonstrating applicability of the developed IFNP model. The results demonstrated that the accuracy of solutions through linearized method normally rises positively with the increase of linearization levels. It was also indicated that the proposed linearization method was effective in dealing with IFNP problems; uncertainties can be communicated into optimization process and generate reliable solutions for decision variables and objectives; the decision alternatives can be obtained by adjusting different combinations of the decision variables within their solution intervals. It also suggested that the linearized method should be used under detailed error analysis in tackling IFNP problems.     

Pricing under quality of service uncertainty: Market segmentation via statistical QoS guarantees

This article examines how performance-contingent pricing schemes with long-term statistical performance guarantees can be applied to many IT services. We study two forms of performance-contingent pricing, with rebate proportional to failure rate and fixed rebate for below-threshold performance. We show that threshold-performance contingency pricing can increase both profits and fairness (customers who receive higher benefits pay higher effective price) relative to standard pricing. But an even better solution is to offer a menu of performance guarantees: this can increase the firm’s profit and segment the market. Only service providers whose performance level is sufficiently better than the industry standard can benefit from this pricing mechanism.     

Location of retail facilities under conditions of uncertainty

Models for the optimal location of retail facilities are typically premised on current market conditions. In this paper we incorporate future market conditions into the model for the location of a retail facility. Future market conditions are analyzed as a set of possible scenarios. We analyze the problem of finding the best location for a new retail facility such that the market share captured at that location is as close to the maximum as possible regardless of the future scenario. The objective is the minimax regret which is widely used in decision analysis. To illustrate the models an example problem is analyzed and solved in detail.     

Technology choice under several uncertainty sources

We analyze a model of irreversible investment with two sources of uncertainty. A risk-neutral decision maker has the choice between two mutually exclusive projects under input price and output price uncertainty. We propose a complete study of the shape of the rational investment region and we prove that it is never optimal to invest when the alternative investments generate the same payoff independently of its size. A key feature of this bidimensional degree of uncertainty is thus that the payoff generated by each project is not a sufficient statistic to make a rational investment. In this context, our analysis provides a new motive for waiting to invest: the benefits associated with the dominance of one project over the other. As an illustration, we apply our methodology to power generation under uncertainty.     

Minmax regret location–allocation problem on a network under uncertainty

We consider a robust location–allocation problem with uncertainty in demand coefficients. Specifically, for each demand point, only an interval estimate of its demand is known and we consider the problem of determining where to locate a new service when a given fraction of these demand points must be served by the utility. The optimal solution of this problem is determined by the “minimax regret” location, i.e., the point that minimizes the worst-case loss in the objective function that may occur because a decision is made without knowing which state of nature will take place. For the case where the demand points are vertices of a network we show that the robust location–allocation problem can be solved in O(min{p, n − p}n³m) time, where n is the number of demand points, p (p < n) is the fixed number of demand points that must be served by the new service and m is the number of edges of the network.     

Flexible supply contracts under price uncertainty

This article develops supply contracts covering environments with changing prices. We investigate characterization properties of the price processes, while considering costs and discount factors. We determine expressions of the contract’s expected low price and its second moment for a given horizon. We then employ these expected price and second moment values to identify an expected optimum time before the contract expires at which the lowest price occurs. Simulation experiments verify our analysis, and they illustrate how the optimum purchase time decreases as the drift term increases.     

Complexity of single machine scheduling problems under scenario-based uncertainty

We present algorithmic and computational complexity results for several single machine scheduling problems where some job characteristics are uncertain. This uncertainty is modeled through a finite set of well-defined scenarios. We use here the so-called absolute robustness criterion to select among feasible solutions.     

Production decisions under joint price and production uncertainty

While production decisions in the presence of price uncertainty have been extensively studied, this is not so for the case in which the level of production is itself uncertain. In this paper,we provide a decision analysis under multiplicative production uncertainty, both with and without price uncertainty. We depict equilibrium and obtain comparative statics results with the aid of a diagram based on the difference between expected price and marginal cost. Comparative statics results are obtained for the model with production uncertainty alone and also for simultaneous price and production uncertainty (including two special cases). We first derive results based on the Arrow–Pratt coefficients of risk aversion, and then supplement these with the Ross measure of relative risk aversion, since this proves useful in the presence of multiple sources of uncertainty. We find that increases in risk (both price and production) or input prices reduce expected output. However, expected output supply is an increasing function of (expected) price only for “low” levels of risk aversion, and in general the relationship is ambiguous.     

Quality uncertainty and quality-compensation contract for supply chain coordination

Many firms often face quality problems, even though quality improvement has long been a competitive imperative for performance enhancement. When suppliers are the sources of quality problems, prior literature has focused on sustaining a buyer’s competitiveness given the suppliers’ quality uncertainty. Surprisingly, the literature has not paid sufficient attention to quality uncertainty from a coordination perspective. On the other hand, the literature on channel coordination has not considered quality uncertainty in designing a contract of alliance. We bridge the gap between these two streams of literature by explicitly considering quality uncertainty in a coordination framework. In contrast to the coordination literature, we show that channel integration may result in smaller order quantity and less accurate inspection than in a decentralized supply chain if product quality is uncertain. We examine the two most extensively discussed contracts for coordination, buybacks and revenue-sharing, in the presence of quality uncertainty, and find that these two contracts fail to coordinate the supply chain. We then propose a new scheme, the quality-compensation contract, in which the manufacturer compensates the retailer for defective products that are inadvertently sold to consumers, and analytically show that the contract fully coordinates the supply chain.     

不确定性下强Berge均衡的存在性

在已知不确定参数变化的范围下,研究了非合作博弈与广义非合作博弈的强Berge均衡的存在性,基于强Berge均衡与不确定性下非合作博弈的强Nash均衡的概念,给出了不确定参数下非合作博弈与广义非合作博弈的强Berge均衡的定义,并利用Fan-Glicksberg不动点定理证明其存在性,最后用算例验证其可行性.     

The risk transfer of non-tradable risks under model uncertainty

In the context of model uncertainty, we study the optimal design and the pricing of financial instruments aiming to hedge some of non-tradable risks. For the existence of model uncertainty, the preference can be represented by the robust expected utility (also called maxmin expected utility) which can be put in the framework of sublinear expectation. The problem of maximizing the issuer’s robust expected utility under the constraint imposed by the buyer can be transformed to the problem of minimizing the issuer’s convex measure under the corresponding constraint. And here the convex measure measures not only the risks but also the model uncertainties.     

Boole''s conditions of possible experience and reasoning under uncertainty

Consider a set of logical sentences together with probabilities that they are true. These probabilities must satisfy certain conditions for this system to be consistent. It is shown that an analytical form of these conditions can be obtained by enumerating the extreme rays of a polyhedron. We also consider the cases when (i) intervals of probabilities are given, instead of single values; and (ii) best lower and upper bounds on the probability of an additional logical sentence to be true are sought. Enumeration of vertices and extreme rays is used. Each vertex defines a finear expression and the maximum (minimum) of these defines a best possible lower (upper) bound on the probability of the additional logical sentence to be true. Each extreme ray leads to a constraint on the probabilities assigned to the initial set of logical sentences. Redundancy in these expressions is studied. Illustrations are provided in the domain of reasoning under uncertainty.     

A heuristic for BILP problems: The Single Source Capacitated Facility Location Problem

In the Single Source Capacitated Facility Location Problem (SSCFLP) each customer has to be assigned to one facility that supplies its whole demand. The total demand of customers assigned to each facility cannot exceed its capacity. An opening cost is associated with each facility, and is paid if at least one customer is assigned to it. The objective is to minimize the total cost of opening the facilities and supply all the customers. In this paper we extend the Kernel Search heuristic framework to general Binary Integer Linear Programming (BILP) problems, and apply it to the SSCFLP. The heuristic is based on the solution to optimality of a sequence of subproblems, where each subproblem is restricted to a subset of the decision variables. The subsets of decision variables are constructed starting from the optimal values of the linear relaxation. Variants based on variable fixing are proposed to improve the efficiency of the Kernel Search framework. The algorithms are tested on benchmark instances and new very large-scale test problems. Computational results demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach. The Kernel Search algorithm outperforms the best heuristics for the SSCFLP available in the literature. It found the optimal solution for 165 out of the 170 instances with a proven optimum. The error achieved in the remaining instances is negligible. Moreover, it achieved, on 100 new very large-scale instances, an average gap equal to 0.64% computed with respect to a lower bound or the optimum, when available. The variants based on variable fixing improved the efficiency of the algorithm with minor deteriorations of the solution quality.     

Optimal reinsurance under risk and uncertainty

This paper deals with the optimal reinsurance problem if both insurer and reinsurer are facing risk and uncertainty, though the classical uncertainty free case is also included. The insurer and reinsurer degrees of uncertainty do not have to be identical. The decision variable is not the retained (or ceded) risk, but its sensitivity with respect to the total claims. Thus, if one imposes strictly positive lower bounds for this variable, the reinsurer moral hazard is totally eliminated.Three main contributions seem to be reached. Firstly, necessary and sufficient optimality conditions are given in a very general setting. Secondly, the optimal contract is often a bang–bang solution, i.e., the sensitivity between the retained risk and the total claims saturates the imposed constraints. Thirdly, the optimal reinsurance problem is equivalent to other linear programming problem, despite the fact that risk, uncertainty, and many premium principles are not linear. This may be important because linear problems may be easily solved in practice, since there are very efficient algorithms.