Statistical inference in a panel data semiparametric regression model with serially correlated errors

We consider a panel data semiparametric partially linear regression model with an unknown vector β of regression coefficients, an unknown nonparametric function g(·) for nonlinear component, and unobservable serially correlated errors. The correlated errors are modeled by a vector autoregressive process which involves a constant intraclass correlation. Applying the pilot estimators of β and g(·), we construct estimators of the autoregressive coefficients, the intraclass correlation and the error variance, and investigate their asymptotic properties. Fitting the error structure results in a new semiparametric two-step estimator of β, which is shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the usual semiparametric least squares estimator in terms of asymptotic covariance matrix. Asymptotic normality of this new estimator is established, and a consistent estimator of its asymptotic covariance matrix is presented. Furthermore, a corresponding estimator of g(·) is also provided. These results can be used to make asymptotically efficient statistical inference. Some simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performances of these proposed estimators.     

Ⅱ型区间删失数据下广义部分线性模型的筛极大似然估计(英文)

This article concerded with a semiparametric generalized partial linear model （GPLM） with the type Ⅱ censored data. A sieve maximum likelihood estimator （MLE） is proposed to estimate the parameter component, allowing exploration of the nonlinear relationship between a certain covariate and the response function. Asymptotic properties of the proposed sieve MLEs are discussed. Under some mild conditions, the estimators are shown to be strongly consistent. Moreover, the estimators of the unknown parameters are asymptotically normal and efficient, and the estimator of the nonparametric function has an optimal convergence rate.     

时空模型的局部众数回归

时空数据经常含有奇异点或来自重尾分布,此时基于最小二乘的估计方法效果欠佳,需要更稳健的估计方法.本文提出时空模型的基于局部众数(local modal, LM)的局部线性估计方法.理论和数据分析结果都显示,若数据含有奇异点或来自重尾分布,基于局部众数的局部线性方法比基于最小二乘的局部线性方法有效;若数据无奇异点且来自正态分布,两种方法效率渐近一致.本文采用众数期望最大化(modal expectation-maximization, MEM)算法,并在数据相依情形下得出估计量的渐近正态性.     

Asymptotic normality of location invariant heavy tail index estimator

Motivated by Fraga Alves (Extremes 4:199–217, 2001)’s work, a new class of location invariant Hill-type estimators for the tail index of a heavy tailed distribution is proposed in the paper. Its asymptotic behavior is derived, and the optimal choice of the sample fraction is discussed by mean squared error. Asymptotic comparisons and simulation studies are presented to show that the new estimator performs well compared to the known ones.     

Distribution estimation with smoothed auxiliary information

Distribution estimation is very important in order to make statistical inference for parameters or its functions based on this distribution.In this work we propose an estimator of the distribution of some variable with non-smooth auxiliary information,for example,a symmetric distribution of this variable.A smoothing technique is employed to handle the non-differentiable function.Hence,a distribution can be estimated based on smoothed auxiliary information.Asymptotic properties of the distribution estimator are derived and analyzed.The distribution estimators based on our method are found to be significantly efficient than the corresponding estimators without these auxiliary information.Some simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators.     

Asymptotic risk behavior of mean vector and variance estimators and the problem of positive normal mean

Asymptotic risk behavior of estimators of the unknow variance and of the unknown mean vector in a multivariate normal distribution is considered for a general loss. It is shown that in both problems this characteristic is related to the risk in an estimation problem of a positive normal mean under quadratic loss function. A curious property of the Brewster-Zidek variance estimator of the normal variance is also noticed.Research supported by NSF Grant DMS 9000999 and by Alexander von Humboldt Foundation Senior Distinguished Scientist Award.University of Münster     

Asymptotic expansions in mean and covariance structure analysis

Asymptotic expansions of the distributions of parameter estimators in mean and covariance structures are derived. The parameters may be common to, or specific in means and covariances of observable variables. The means are possibly structured by the common/specific parameters. First, the distributions of the parameter estimators standardized by the population asymptotic standard errors are expanded using the single- and the two-term Edgeworth expansions. In practice, the pivotal statistic or the Studentized estimator with the asymptotically distribution-free standard error is of interest. An asymptotic distribution of the pivotal statistic is also derived by the Cornish-Fisher expansion. Simulations are performed for a factor analysis model with nonzero factor means to see the accuracy of the asymptotic expansions in finite samples.     

One-step jackknife for M-estimators computed using Newton's method

To estimate the dispersion of an M-estimator computed using Newton's iterative method, the jackknife method usually requires to repeat the iterative process n times, where n is the sample size. To simplify the computation, one-step jackknife estimators, which require no iteration, are proposed in this paper. Asymptotic properties of the one-step jackknife estimators are obtained under some regularity conditions in the i.i.d. case and in a linear or nonlinear model. All the one-step jackknife estimators are shown to be asymptotically equivalent and they are also asymptotically equivalent to the original jackknife estimator. Hence one may use a dispersion estimator whose computation is the simplest. Finite sample properties of several one-step jackknife estimators are examined in a simulation study.The research was supported by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.     

Improved estimation of regression parameters in measurement error models

The problem of simultaneous estimation of the regression parameters in a multiple regression model with measurement errors is considered when it is suspected that the regression parameter vector may be the null-vector with some degree of uncertainty. In this regard, we propose two sets of four estimators, namely, (i) the unrestricted estimator, (ii) the preliminary test estimator, (iii) the Stein-type estimator and (iv) the postive-rule Stein-type estimator. In an asymptotic setup, properties of these estimators are studied based on asymptotic distributional bias, MSE matrices, and risks under a quadratic loss function. In addition to the asymptotic dominance of the Stein-type estimators, the paper contains discussion of dominating confidence sets based on the Stein-type estimation. Asymptotic analysis is considered based on a sequence of local alternatives to obtain the desired results.     

Use of prior information in the consistent estimation of regression coefficients in measurement error models

A multivariate ultrastructural measurement error model is considered and it is assumed that some prior information is available in the form of exact linear restrictions on regression coefficients. Using the prior information along with the additional knowledge of covariance matrix of measurement errors associated with explanatory vector and reliability matrix, we have proposed three methodologies to construct the consistent estimators which also satisfy the given linear restrictions. Asymptotic distribution of these estimators is derived when measurement errors and random error component are not necessarily normally distributed. Dominance conditions for the superiority of one estimator over the other under the criterion of Löwner ordering are obtained for each case of the additional information. Some conditions are also proposed under which the use of a particular type of information will give a more efficient estimator.     

Asymptotic properties of the Bayes modal estimators of item parameters in item response theory

Asymptotic cumulants of the Bayes modal estimators of item parameters using marginal likelihood in item response theory are derived up to the fourth order with added higher-order asymptotic variances under possible model misspecification. Among them, only the first asymptotic cumulant and the higher-order asymptotic variance for an estimator are different from those by maximum likelihood. Corresponding results for studentized Bayes estimators and asymptotically bias-corrected ones are also obtained. It was found that all the asymptotic cumulants of the bias-corrected Bayes estimator up to the fourth order and the higher-order asymptotic variance are identical to those by maximum likelihood with bias correction. Numerical illustrations are given with simulations in the case when the 2-parameter logistic model holds. In the numerical illustrations, the maximum likelihood and Bayes estimators are used, where the same independent log-normal priors are employed for discriminant parameters and the hierarchical model is adopted for the prior of difficulty parameters.     

Local generalized empirical estimation of regression

Let f(x) be the density of a design variable X and m(x) = E[Y\X = x] the regression function. Then m(x) - G(x)/f(x), where G(x) = m(x)f(x). The Dirac δ-function is used to define a generalized empirical function Gn (x) for G(x) whose expectation equals G(x). This generalized empirical function exists only in the space of Schwartz distributions, so we introduce a local polynomial of order p approximation to Gn(.) which provides estimators of the function G(x) and its derivatives. The density f(x) can be estimated in a similar manner. The resulting local generalized empirical estimator (LGE) of m(x) is exactly the Nadaraya-Watson estimator at interior points when p = 1, but on the boundary the estimator automatically corrects the boundary effect. Asymptotic normality of the estimator is established. Asymptotic expressions for the mean squared errors are obtained and used in bandwidth selection. Boundary behavior of the estimators is investigated in details. We use Monte Carlo simulations to show that the     

Estimation of Multinomial Probabilities under a Model Constraint

In this paper estimation of the probabilities of a multinomial distribution has been studied. The five estimators considered are: unrestricted estimator (UE), restricted estimator (RE) (under model ), preliminary test estimator (PTE) based on a test of the model , shrinkage estimator (SE) and the positive-rule shrinkage estimator (PRSE). Asymptotic distributions of these estimators are given under Pitman alternatives and the asymptotic risk under a quadratic loss has been evaluated. The relative performance of the five estimators is then studied with respect to their asymptotic distributional risks (ADR). It is seen that neither of the preliminary test and shrinkage estimators dominates the other, though each fares well relative to the other estimators. However, the positive rule estimator is recommended for use for dimension 3 or more while the PTE is recommended for dimension less than 3.     

A family of estimators for multivariate kurtosis in a nonnormal linear regression model

In this paper, we propose a new estimator for a kurtosis in a multivariate nonnormal linear regression model. Usually, an estimator is constructed from an arithmetic mean of the second power of the squared sample Mahalanobis distances between observations and their estimated values. The estimator gives an underestimation and has a large bias, even if the sample size is not small. We replace this squared distance with a transformed squared norm of the Studentized residual using a monotonic increasing function. Our proposed estimator is defined by an arithmetic mean of the second power of these squared transformed squared norms with a correction term and a tuning parameter. The correction term adjusts our estimator to an unbiased estimator under normality, and the tuning parameter controls the sizes of the squared norms of the residuals. The family of our estimators includes estimators based on ordinary least squares and predicted residuals. We verify that the bias of our new estimator is smaller than usual by constructing numerical experiments.     

Asymptotic expansions and higher order properties of semi-parametric estimators in a system of simultaneous equations

Asymptotic expansions are made for the distributions of the Maximum Empirical Likelihood (MEL) estimator and the Estimating Equation (EE) estimator (or the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) in econometrics) for the coefficients of a single structural equation in a system of linear simultaneous equations, which corresponds to a reduced rank regression model. The expansions in terms of the sample size, when the non-centrality parameters increase proportionally, are carried out to O(n⁻¹). Comparisons of the distributions of the MEL and GMM estimators are made. Also, we relate the asymptotic expansions of the distributions of the MEL and GMM estimators to the corresponding expansions for the Limited Information Maximum Likelihood (LIML) and the Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimators. We give useful information on the higher order properties of alternative estimators including the semi-parametric inefficiency factor under the homoscedasticity assumption.     

Admissibility of estimators of the probability of unobserved outcomes

The problem of estimating the probability of unobserved outcomes or, as it is sometimes called, the conditional probability of a new species, is studied. Good's estimator, which is essentially the same as Robbins' estimator, namely the number of singleton species observed divided by the sample size, is studied from a decision theory point of view. The results obtained are as follows: (1) When the total number of different species is assumed bounded by some known number, Good's and Robbins' estimators are inadmissible for squared error loss. (2) If the number of different species can be infinite, Good's and Robbins' estimators are admissible for squared error loss. (3) Whereas Robbins' estimator is a UMVUE for theunconditional probability of a new species obtained in one extra sample point, Robbins' estimator is not a uniformly minimum mean squared error unbiased estimator of the conditional probability of a new species. This answers a question raised by Robbins. (4) It is shown that for Robbins' model and squared error loss, there are admissible Bayes estimators which do not depend only on a minimal sufficient statistic. A discussion of interpretations and significance of the results is offered. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-88-22622.     

Multivariate moment based extreme value index estimators

Modeling extreme events is of paramount importance in various areas of science—biostatistics, climatology, finance, geology, and telecommunications, to name a few. Most of these application areas involve multivariate data. Estimation of the extreme value index plays a crucial role in modeling rare events. There is an affine invariant multivariate generalization of the well known Hill estimator—the separating Hill estimator. However, the Hill estimator is only suitable for heavy tailed distributions. As in the case of the separating multivariate Hill estimator, we consider estimation of the extreme value index under the assumptions of multivariate ellipticity and independent identically distributed observations. We provide affine invariant multivariate generalizations of the moment estimator and the mixed moment estimator. These estimators are suitable for both light and heavy tailed distributions. Asymptotic properties of the new extreme value index estimators are derived under multivariate elliptical distribution with known location and scatter. The effect of replacing true location and scatter by estimates is examined in a thorough simulation study. We also consider two data examples: one financial application and one meteorological application.     

Asymptotic distributions of nonparametric regression estimators for longitudinal or functional data

The estimation of a regression function by kernel method for longitudinal or functional data is considered. In the context of longitudinal data analysis, a random function typically represents a subject that is often observed at a small number of time points, while in the studies of functional data the random realization is usually measured on a dense grid. However, essentially the same methods can be applied to both sampling plans, as well as in a number of settings lying between them. In this paper general results are derived for the asymptotic distributions of real-valued functions with arguments which are functionals formed by weighted averages of longitudinal or functional data. Asymptotic distributions for the estimators of the mean and covariance functions obtained from noisy observations with the presence of within-subject correlation are studied. These asymptotic normality results are comparable to those standard rates obtained from independent data, which is illustrated in a simulation study. Besides, this paper discusses the conditions associated with sampling plans, which are required for the validity of local properties of kernel-based estimators for longitudinal or functional data.     

An admissible minimax estimator of a bounded scale-parameter in a subclass of the exponential family under scale-invariant squared-error loss

A subclass of the scale-parameter exponential family is considered and for the rth power of the scale parameter, which is lower bounded, an admissible minimax estimator under scale-invariant squared-error loss is presented. Also, an admissible minimax estimator of a lower-bounded parameter in the family of transformed chi-square distributions is given. These estimators are the pointwise limits of a sequence of Bayes estimators. Some examples are given.     

有辅助信息时有限总体分布函数的新估计量

本文提出两个新的估计量,利用观察数据中的总体辅助信息来估计有限总体分布函数,并通过两个人工总体的模拟实验,比较新的估计量、传统的估计量及Rao,Kover&Mantel(1990)提出的估计量的相对平均误差与相对标准差。结果表明,从相对标准差的角度分析,两个新的估计量有一个是四个估计量中精度最好的一个,另一个也有很好的表现;而且它们在模型有所偏差时都具备了较好的稳健性。