RANDOM VARIABLE WITH FUZZY PROBABILITY

IntroductionThematteroffuzzyrandomisusuallyclassifiedintothreeparts:fuzzyevent_exactitudeprobabilitymodel,crispevent_fuzzyprobabilitymodel,fuzzyevent_fuzzyprobabilitymodel.Uptonow ,themajorityofresearchesandachievementsareaboutthefirstmodel,buttherearefewresearchesandachievementsaboutthesecondmodel[1- 4].Whenresearchingthesecondmodel,thefuzzyprobabilityaboutcertainbasiceventsmustbegivenfirst,andthefuzzinessofvariablesiscausedbythefuzzyprobabilityaboutthesebasicevents.Theabove_mentionedrelation…     

Mathematic description about random variable with fuzzy density function (RVFDF)

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基于马尔科夫链与鞍点逼近的模糊随机可靠性分析方法

针对同时存在随机不确定性和模糊不确定性的可靠性分析问题,提出了两种高效解决方法。一种是迭代马尔科夫链鞍点逼近法,该方法的基本思想是给定隶属水平下由迭代马尔科夫链和一次鞍点逼近法求得可靠度上下限,不同的隶属水平对应不同的可靠度上下限,遍历隶属水平的取值区间[0,1]即可求得可靠度隶属函数,与传统的两相Monte Carlo数字模拟法和迭代一次二阶矩法相比,该方法具有效率高和对非正态基本随机变量不需要进行正态转换的优点;第二种方法是迭代条件概率马尔科夫链模拟法,该方法在求解给定隶属度水平下的可靠度上下限时,由条件概率公式引入一个非线性修正因子,该因子的引入大大提高了功能函数为非线性的可靠性问题的求解精度。本文算例验证了所提方法的优越性。     

Application of shooting methods for two-point boundary value problems of ordinary differential equations with parameters in hydrodynamics

In this paper. first we introduce the shooting method (including the method of adjoints and the method of quasilinearization) for two-point boundary value problems of ordinary differential equations with parameters, and give out an example of solving hydrodynamic lubrication equation by using the shooting method. The calculated results are satisfactory.     

基于模糊事件概率理论的模糊可靠性分析通用方法

讨论了从已知的模糊信息的隶属函数,确定模糊失效事件的隶属函数的方法,以便能利用模糊事件概率理论进行模糊可靠性分析,给出模糊可靠性分析通用而统一的方法;并给出了强度为几种常用模糊分布时,所确定的模糊失效事件的隶属函数的具体表达式,分析了模糊失效事件的隶属函数的曲线特性。由于获得的模糊失效事件的隶属函数的形式比较复杂,用模糊事件概率理论进行模糊可靠性分析时,不可能得到计算模糊失效事件概率的解析式,因此通过仿真所确定的模糊失效事件的隶属函数的数学期望的方法,估计模糊失效事件的发生概率。本文讨论的通过确定模糊事件的隶属函数,用模糊事件概率理论进行模糊可靠性分析的方法具有普遍意义。     

Theory of fuzzy random vibration with fuzzy parameters

In this paper, based on our previous papers [1–4], the general theory of fuzzy random vibration with fuzzy parameters is studied. In order to better describe the random excitation with fuzziness in mathematics, first, the random variable and random process with a fuzzy parameter are defined and their probability distributions and statistical moments are discussed. Secondly, by simulating the fuzzy random excitation as a random process with a fuzzy parameter, the fundamental method and numerical method are presented for analysing the fuzzy random response of linear or nonlinear oscillators subjected to this kind of excitation. Finally, the methods are applied to the fuzzy random vibration of aseismic structures and a concrete example is given.This paper is supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China.     

PROCEDURE FOR COMPUTING THE POSSIBILITY AND FUZZY PROBABILITY OF FAILURE OF STRUCTURES

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一种高效的概率-证据混合可靠性分析方法An efficient structural reliability anslysis method with both probability variable and evidence variable

针对同时包含概率变量和证据变量的混合不确定性问题,提出了一种高效的结构可靠性分析方法,在保证精度的前提下大幅提高了计算效率。借助证据变量均匀化手段,将传统概率可靠性分析中的最可能失效点（M PP）概念引入概率‐证据混合模型,基于M PP建立线性近似功能函数,并进行高效可靠性分析。最后通过三个工程算例验证了该方法的有效性。     

INTERVAL ANALYSIS OF FUZZY-RANDOM HEAT CONDUCTION IN COMPOSITE TUBES

IntroductionThere are a lot of uncertainties such as fuzziness and random in the design andmanufacture in engineering.In generally speaking,methods to deal with the fuzzy-randomproblems are first to transfer the fuzzy set to real number set,and then the p…     

基于主动学习Kriging模型与序列重要抽样的随机-区间混合可靠性分析

针对随机-区间混合可靠性分析中复杂功能函数的高非线性和多设计点问题,本文提出了一种结合主动学习Kriging模型与序列重要抽样方法的混合可靠性分析方法.在序列重要采样方法中采用高斯混合分布作为提议分布进行逐级采样,逐步逼近最优重要抽样函数的采样样本;结合序列重要抽样方法的特点,提出了主动学习Kriging模型的两步学习...