Conditional uncertain set and conditional membership function

The uncertain set, as a generation of uncertain variable, is a set-valued function on an uncertainty space. The conditional uncertain set, derived from an uncertain set restricted to a conditional uncertainty space given an uncertain event, plays a crucial role in uncertain inference systems. This paper studies conditional uncertain sets and their membership functions, and gives a sufficient condition for an uncertain set having a conditional membership function. In addition, when the uncertain set is conditioned on an independent event, this paper finds the analytic expression of the conditional membership function based on the original membership function.     

Uncertain random programming with applications

Uncertain random variable is a tool to deal with a mixture of uncertainty and randomness. This paper presents an operational law of uncertain random variables, and shows an expected value formula by using probability and uncertainty distributions. This paper also provides a framework of uncertain random programming that is a type of mathematical programming involving uncertain random variables. Finally, some applications of uncertain random programming are discussed.     

Poincáre recurrence theorem in regular uncertain dynamic system

Poincáre recurrence theorem in an uncertain dynamic system is proved in the framework of uncertainty theory, which claims that almost every point of an uncertain event with positive uncertain measure will iterate back to the event for infinite times. This recurrence behaviour can be used to develop new results of uncertain variable in an uncertain dynamic system.     

Characterizing a comonotonic random vector by the distribution of the sum of its components

In this article, we characterize comonotonicity and related dependence structures among several random variables by the distribution of their sum. First we prove that if the sum has the same distribution as the corresponding comonotonic sum, then the underlying random variables must be comonotonic as long as each of them is integrable. In the literature, this result is only known to be true if either each random variable is square integrable or possesses a continuous distribution function. We then study the situation when the distribution of the sum only coincides with the corresponding comonotonic sum in the tail. This leads to the dependence structure known as tail comonotonicity. Finally, by establishing some new results concerning convex order, we show that comonotonicity can also be characterized by expected utility and distortion risk measures.     

不确定规划的研究现状及其发展前景

本文简要介绍不确定规划理论、算法以及应用研究的现状，描绘了不确定规划理论的基本框架。首先介绍处理各种不确定性的数学工具；接着阐述不确定规划的建模机理与求解方法，然后提出了不确定规划中值得进一步研究的一些问题，最后展望了不确定规划的发展前景。     

Risk measures with comonotonic subadditivity or convexity on product spaces

In this paper, by an axiomatic approach, we propose the concepts of comonotonic subadditivity and comonotonic convex risk measures for portfolios, which are extensions of the ones introduced by Song and Yan(2006)Representation results for these new introduced risk measures for portfolios are given in terms of Choquet integralsLinks of these newly introduced risk measures to multi-period comonotonic risk measures are representedFinally, applications of the newly introduced comonotonic coherent risk measures to capital allocations are provided.     

Totally ordered uncertain sets

It is known that some uncertain sets have membership functions, and some do not. How do we judge whether an uncertain set has a membership function? In order to answer this question, this paper presents a concept of totally ordered uncertain set, and shows that totally ordered uncertain sets always have membership functions if they are defined on a continuous uncertainty space. In addition, some criteria for judging the existence of membership functions for uncertain sets are provided. Several inspiring examples and counterexamples are also documented in this paper.     

Membership functions and operational law of uncertain sets

Uncertain set is a set-valued function on an uncertainty space, and attempts to model “unsharp concepts” that are essentially sets but their boundaries are not sharply described. This paper will propose a concept of membership function and define the independence of uncertain sets. This paper will also present an operational law of uncertain sets via membership functions or inverse membership functions. Finally, the linearity of expected value operator is verified.     

Optimal core acquisition and remanufacturing policies under uncertain core quality fractions

Cores acquired by a remanufacturer are typically highly variable in quality. Even if the expected fractions of the various quality levels are known, then the exact fractions when acquiring cores are still uncertain. Our model incorporates this uncertainty in determining optimal acquisition decisions by considering multiple quality classes and a multinomial quality distribution for an acquired lot. We derive optimal acquisition and remanufacturing policies for both deterministic and uncertain demand. For deterministic demand, we derive a simple closed-form expression for the total expected cost. In a numerical experiment, we highlight the effect of uncertainty in quality fractions on the optimal number of acquired cores and show that the cost error of ignoring uncertainty can be significant. For uncertain demand, we derive optimal newsboy-type solutions for the optimal remanufacture-up-to levels and an approximate expression for the total expected cost given the number of acquired cores. In a further numerical experiment, we explore the effects of demand uncertainty on the optimal acquisition and remanufacturing decisions, and on the total expected cost.     

Robust combinatorial optimization with variable budgeted uncertainty

We introduce a new model for robust combinatorial optimization where the uncertain parameters belong to the image of multifunctions of the problem variables. In particular, we study the variable budgeted uncertainty, an extension of the budgeted uncertainty introduced by Bertsimas and Sim. Variable budgeted uncertainty can provide the same probabilistic guarantee as the budgeted uncertainty while being less conservative for vectors with few non-zero components. The feasibility set of the resulting optimization problem is in general non-convex so that we propose a mixed-integer programming reformulation for the problem, based on the dualization technique often used in robust linear programming. We show how to extend these results to non-binary variables and to more general multifunctions involving uncertainty set defined by conic constraints that are affine in the problem variables. We present a computational comparison of the budgeted uncertainty and the variable budgeted uncertainty on the robust knapsack problem. The experiments show a reduction of the price of robustness by an average factor of 18 %.     

Signed integral representations of comonotonic additive functionals

We establish integral representation results for suitably pointwise continuous and comonotonic additive functionals of bounded variation defined on Stone lattices. As an application, we prove a comonotonic version of the Daniell–Stone Theorem.     

Coalition formation of oligopolistic firms for information exchange

This paper investigates the coalition formation of oligopolistic firms for exchanges of information about their cost functions in a game-theoretical framework. An oligopolistic market under uncertainty is considered in which each firm knows its own cost function but not those of all the others. The following results are shown. It is profitable for each firm to exchange the information about cost functions with other firms. When the uncertainty levels of the cost functions of all firms are symmetric. it is common interest for them to exchange their information by forming the grand coalition. On the other hand, when their uncertainty levels are highly asymmetric, firms possessing less uncertain cost functions come into conflict with one another when exchanging information exclusively with the most uncertain firms. As a result, more than one coalition may be formed among firms.     

Robust linear semi-infinite programming duality under uncertainty

In this paper, we propose a duality theory for semi-infinite linear programming problems under uncertainty in the constraint functions, the objective function, or both, within the framework of robust optimization. We present robust duality by establishing strong duality between the robust counterpart of an uncertain semi-infinite linear program and the optimistic counterpart of its uncertain Lagrangian dual. We show that robust duality holds whenever a robust moment cone is closed and convex. We then establish that the closed-convex robust moment cone condition in the case of constraint-wise uncertainty is in fact necessary and sufficient for robust duality. In other words, the robust moment cone is closed and convex if and only if robust duality holds for every linear objective function of the program. In the case of uncertain problems with affinely parameterized data uncertainty, we establish that robust duality is easily satisfied under a Slater type constraint qualification. Consequently, we derive robust forms of the Farkas lemma for systems of uncertain semi-infinite linear inequalities.     

Uncertain insurance risk process with multiple classes of claims

Traditionally, an insurance risk process describes an insurance company’s risk through some criteria using the historical data under the framework of probability theory with the prerequisite that the estimated distribution function is close enough to the true frequency. However, because of the complexity and changeability of the world, economical and technological reasons in many cases enough historical data are unavailable and we have to base on belief degrees given by some domain experts, which motivates us to include the human uncertainty in the insurance risk process by regarding interarrival times and claim amounts as uncertain variables using uncertainty theory. Noting the expansion of insurance companies’ operation scale and the increase of businesses with different risk nature, in this paper we extend the uncertain insurance risk process with a single class of claims to that with multiple classes of claims, and derive expressions for the ruin index and the uncertainty distribution of ruin time respectively. As the ruin time can be infinite, we propose a proper uncertain variable and the corresponding proper uncertainty distribution of that. Some numerical examples are documented to illustrate our results. Finally our method is applied to a real-world problem with some satellite insurance data provided by global insurance brokerage MARSH.     

Upper comonotonicity and convex upper bounds for sums of random variables

It is well-known that if a random vector with given marginal distributions is comonotonic, it has the largest sum with respect to convex order. However, replacing the (unknown) copula by the comonotonic copula will in most cases not reflect reality well. For instance, in an insurance context we may have partial information about the dependence structure of different risks in the lower tail. In this paper, we extend the aforementioned result, using the concept of upper comonotonicity, to the case where the dependence structure of a random vector in the lower tail is already known. Since upper comonotonic random vectors have comonotonic behavior in the upper tail, we are able to extend several well-known results of comonotonicity to upper comonotonicity. As an application, we construct different increasing convex upper bounds for sums of random variables and compare these bounds in terms of increasing convex order.     

A note on convex risk statistic

By weakening the comonotonic subadditivity axiom, we give the definition of the comonotonic convex risk statistic. Motivated by Ahmed et al. (2008) [1], we establish the representation results for the comonotonic convex risk statistics and the law-invariance convex risk statistics by using the convex analysis.     

用不确定德尔菲法预测GDP

德尔菲法是一种建立在专家意见基础上的预测评估方法.不确定统计是利用不确定理论收集和整理分析专家数据的一种统计方法,其中关键的一点是如何构造不确定变量的不确定分布.把德尔菲法和不确定统计相结合,就得到了一种估计不确定分布的新方法——不确定德尔菲法.对该方法的估计误差进行了改进,得到了一种预测GDP的新方法,并利用其预测邯郸市的生产总值(GDP).     

Stochastic comparisons of capital allocations with applications

This paper studies capital allocation problems using a general loss function. Stochastic comparisons are conducted for general loss functions in several scenarios: independent and identically distributed risks; independent but non-identically distributed risks; comonotonic risks. Applications in optimal capital allocations and policy limits allocations are discussed as well.     

Characterization of upper comonotonicity via tail convex order

In this paper, we show a characterization of upper comonotonicity via tail convex order. For any given marginal distributions, a maximal random vector with respect to tail convex order is proved to be upper comonotonic under suitable conditions. As an application, we consider the computation of the Haezendonck risk measure of the sum of upper comonotonic random variables with exponential marginal distributions.     

Uncertainty distribution and independence of uncertain processes

Uncertain process is a sequence of uncertain variables indexed by time. This paper presents a concept of uncertainty distribution for describing uncertain process. Some sufficient and necessary conditions are also proved for uncertainty distribution and inverse uncertainty distribution of uncertain process. Finally, this paper proposes an independence definition of uncertain processes and shows some mathematical properties of it.