Competence-driven project portfolio selection,scheduling and staff assignment

This paper presents a new model for project portfolio selection, paying specific attention to competence development. The model seeks to maximize a weighted average of economic gains from projects and strategic gains from the increment of desirable competencies. As a sub-problem, scheduling and staff assignment for a candidate set of selected projects must also be optimized. We provide a nonlinear mixed-integer program formulation for the overall problem, and then propose heuristic solution techniques composed of (1) a greedy heuristic for the scheduling and staff assignment part, and (2) two (alternative) metaheuristics for the project selection part. The paper outlines experimental results on a real-world application provided by the E-Commerce Competence Center Austria and, for a slightly simplified instance, presents comparisons with the exact solution computed by CPLEX.     

Preference programming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection

In decision analysis, difficulties of obtaining complete information about model parameters make it advisable to seek robust solutions that perform reasonably well across the full range of feasible parameter values. In this paper, we develop the Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) methodology which extends Preference Programming methods into portfolio problems where a subset of project proposals are funded in view of multiple evaluation criteria. We also develop an algorithm for computing all non-dominated portfolios, subject to incomplete information about criterion weights and project-specific performance levels. Based on these portfolios, we propose a project-level index to convey (i) which projects are robust choices (in the sense that they would be recommended even if further information were to be obtained) and (ii) how continued activities in preference elicitation should be focused. The RPM methodology is illustrated with an application using real data on road pavement projects.     

Robust portfolio modeling with incomplete cost information and project interdependencies

Robust portfolio modeling (RPM) [Liesiö, J., Mild, P., Salo, A., 2007. Preference programming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection. European Journal of Operational Research 181, 1488–1505] supports project portfolio selection in the presence of multiple evaluation criteria and incomplete information. In this paper, we extend RPM to account for project interdependencies, incomplete cost information and variable budget levels. These extensions lead to a multi-objective zero-one linear programming problem with interval-valued objective function coefficients for which all non-dominated solutions are determined by a tailored algorithm. The extended RPM framework permits more comprehensive modeling of portfolio problems and provides support for advanced benefit–cost analyses. It retains the key features of RPM by providing robust project and portfolio recommendations and by identifying projects on which further attention should be focused. The extended framework is illustrated with an example on product release planning.     

Adaptive policies for multi-mode project scheduling under uncertainty

In this paper we propose an adaptive model for multi-mode project scheduling under uncertainty. We assume that there is a due date for concluding the project and a tardiness penalty for failing to meet this due date, and that several distinct modes may be used to undertake each activity. We define scheduling policies based on a set of thresholds. The starting time of the activity is compared with those thresholds in order to define the execution mode.We propose a procedure, based on the electromagnetism heuristic, for choosing a scheduling policy. In computational tests, we conclude that the adaptive scheduling policy found by using the model and the heuristic solution procedure is consistently better than the optimal non-adaptive policy. When the different modes have very different characteristics and there is a reasonable difference between the average duration of the project and the due date, the cost advantage of the adaptive policy becomes very significant.     

An experimental investigation of metaheuristics for the multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling problem on new dataset instances

In this paper, an overview is presented of the existing metaheuristic solution procedures to solve the multi-mode resource-constrained-project scheduling problem, in which multiple execution modes are available for each of the activities of the project. A fair comparison is made between the different metaheuristic algorithms on the existing benchmark datasets and on a newly generated dataset. Computational results are provided and recommendations for future research are formulated.     

Metaheuristics for multi-mode capital-constrained project payment scheduling

This paper involves the multi-mode capital-constrained project payment scheduling problem, where the objective is to assign activity modes and payments so as to maximize the net present value (NPV) of the contractor under the constraint of capital availability. In the light of different payment patterns adopted, four optimization models are constructed using the event-based method. For the NP-hardness of the problem, metaheuristics, including tabu search and simulated annealing, are developed and compared with multi-start iterative improvement and random sampling based on a computational experiment performed on a data set generated randomly. The results indicate that the loop nested tabu search is the most promising procedure for the problem studied. Moreover, the effects of several key parameters on the contractor’s NPV are investigated and the following conclusions are drawn: The contractor’s NPV rises with the increase of the contractor’s initial capital availability, the payment number, the payment proportion, or the project deadline; the contractor has a decreasing marginal return as the contractor’s initial capital availability goes up; the contractor’s NPVs under the milestone event based payment pattern are not less than those under the other three payment patterns.     

A sensitivity analysis algorithm for hierarchical decision models

In this paper, a comprehensive algorithm is developed to analyze the sensitivity of hierarchical decision models (HDM), including the analytic hierarchy process and its variants, to single and multiple changes in the local contribution matrices at any level of the decision hierarchy. The algorithm is applicable to all HDM that use an additive function to derive the overall contribution vector. It is independent of pairwise comparison scales, judgment quantification techniques and group opinion combining methods. The allowable range/region of perturbations, contribution tolerance, operating point sensitivity coefficient, total sensitivity coefficient and the most critical decision element at a certain level are identified in the HDM SA algorithm. An example is given to demonstrate the application of the algorithm and show that HDM SA can reveal information more significant and useful than simply knowing the rank order of the decision alternatives.     

IPSSIS: An integrated multicriteria decision support system for equity portfolio construction and selection

A fundamental principle of modern portfolio theory is that comparisons between portfolios are generally made using two criteria, corresponding to the first two moments of return distributions, namely the expected return and portfolio variance. According to this model and according to most of the portfolio models derived from the stochastic dominance approach, the group of portfolios open to comparisons is divided into two parts: on the one hand there are the efficient portfolios (those that are not dominated by any other portfolio in the group), and on the other, those that are dominated. In other words, these models do not solve for one optimal portfolio, but rather solve for an efficient set of portfolios, among which the investor must choose, given his preference system. One criticism over these models, which has often been addressed both by practitioners and academics, is that they fail to embody the objectives of the decision maker (DM), through the various stages of the decision process. Our purpose in this article is to present an integrated and innovative methodological approach for the construction and selection of equity portfolios, which will take into account the inherent multidimensional nature of the problem, while allowing the DM to incorporate his preferences in the decision process. The proposed approach, which grounds its basis on the field of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) and more specifically on multiobjective mathematical programming (MMP), is implemented in the IPSSIS (Integrated Portfolio Synthesis and Selection Information System) decision support system (DSS). The validity of the proposed approach is tested through an illustrative application in the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE).     

Multi-objective stochastic programming for portfolio selection

Generally, in the portfolio selection problem the Decision Maker (DM) considers simultaneously conflicting objectives such as rate of return, liquidity and risk. Multi-objective programming techniques such as goal programming (GP) and compromise programming (CP) are used to choose the portfolio best satisfying the DM’s aspirations and preferences. In this article, we assume that the parameters associated with the objectives are random and normally distributed. We propose a chance constrained compromise programming model (CCCP) as a deterministic transformation to multi-objective stochastic programming portfolio model. CCCP is based on CP and chance constrained programming (CCP) models. The proposed program is illustrated by means of a portfolio selection problem from the Tunisian stock exchange market.     

Simulated annealing for complex portfolio selection problems

This paper describes the application of a simulated annealing approach to the solution of a complex portfolio selection model. The model is a mixed integer quadratic programming problem which arises when Markowitz’ classical mean–variance model is enriched with additional realistic constraints. Exact optimization algorithms run into difficulties in this framework and this motivates the investigation of heuristic techniques. Computational experiments indicate that the approach is promising for this class of problems.     

Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis

his paper provides a review of multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for cases where attribute evaluations are uncertain. The main aim is to identify different tools which can be used to represent uncertain evaluations, and to broadly survey the available decision models that can be used to support uncertain decision making. The review includes models using probabilities or probability-like quantities; explicit risk measures such as quantiles and variances; fuzzy numbers, and scenarios. The practical assessment of uncertain outcomes and preferences associated with these outcomes is also discussed.     

A multi-objective genetic algorithm for cardinality constrained fuzzy portfolio selection

This paper presents a new procedure that extends genetic algorithms from their traditional domain of optimization to fuzzy ranking strategy for selecting efficient portfolios of restricted cardinality. The uncertainty of the returns on a given portfolio is modeled using fuzzy quantities and a downside risk function is used to describe the investor's aversion to risk. The fitness functions are based both on the value and the ambiguity of the trapezoidal fuzzy number which represents the uncertainty on the return. The soft-computing approach allows us to consider uncertainty and vagueness in databases and also to incorporate subjective characteristics into the portfolio selection problem. We use a data set from the Spanish stock market to illustrate the performance of our approach to the portfolio selection problem.     

Bi-objective project portfolio selection and staff assignment under uncertainty

We formulate a project portfolio selection problem under uncertainty with two optimization criteria: a weighted average of economic and strategic gains, and a risk measure expressed as the expected total overtime cost. The optimal assignment of personnel with given skills to the tasks of the selected projects is incorporated as a subproblem. Searching for Pareto-optimal portfolios satisfying the given constraints amounts to a stochastic multi-objective combinatorial optimization problem, a problem type for which only a few general solution approaches are available at present. We apply a recently developed technique called adaptive Pareto sampling, solve a linear subproblem with an LP solver and use the NSGA-II algorithm for deterministic multi-objective optimization as an auxiliary procedure. A convergence result applicable in a more general context is also shown. To obtain objective function estimates, importance sampling is applied. The technique is tested on a benchmark derived from a real-world application case provided by the E-Commerce Competence Center Austria.     

Baseline value specification and sensitivity analysis in multiattribute project portfolio selection

A key issue in applying multi-attribute project portfolio models is specifying the baseline value – a parameter which defines how valuable not implementing a project is relative to the range of possible project values. In this paper we present novel baseline value specification techniques which admit incomplete preference statements and, unlike existing techniques, make it possible to model problems where the decision maker would prefer to implement a project with the least preferred performance level in each attribute. Furthermore, we develop computational methods for identifying the optimal portfolios and the value-to-cost -based project rankings for all baseline values. We also show how these results can be used to (i) analyze how sensitive project and portfolio decision recommendations are to variations in the baseline value and (ii) provide project decision recommendations in a situation where only incomplete information about the baseline value is available.     

Weight determination for consistently ranking alternatives in multiple criteria decision analysis

One of the most difficult tasks in multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is determining the weights of individual criteria so that all alternatives can be compared based on the aggregate performance of all criteria. This problem can be transformed into the compromise programming of seeking alternatives with a shorter distance to the ideal or a longer distance to the anti-ideal despite the rankings based on the two distance measures possibly not being the same. In order to obtain consistent rankings, this paper proposes a measure of relative distance, which involves the calculation of the relative position of an alternative between the anti-ideal and the ideal for ranking. In this case, minimizing the distance to the ideal is equivalent to maximizing the distance to the anti-ideal, so the rankings obtained from the two criteria are the same. An example is used to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed method, and the results are compared with those obtained from the TOPSIS method.     

Inferring robust decision models in multicriteria classification problems: An experimental analysis

Recent research on robust decision aiding has focused on identifying a range of recommendations from preferential information and the selection of representative models compatible with preferential constraints. This study presents an experimental analysis on the relationship between the results of a single decision model (additive value function) and the ones from the full set of compatible models in classification problems. Different optimization formulations for selecting a representative model are tested on artificially generated data sets with varying characteristics.     

Spatial multicriteria decision support for robust land-use suitability: The case of landfill site selection in Northeastern Greece

Multicriteria spatial decision support systems (MC-SDSS) have emerged as an integration of geographical information systems (GIS) and multiple criteria decision aid (MCDA) methods for incorporating conflicting objectives and decision makers’ preferences into spatial decision models. In this paper, we present spatial UTASTAR (S-UTASTAR), a raster-based MC-SDSS for land-use suitability analysis. The multicriteria component of the system is based on the UTA-type disaggregation-aggregation approach. S-UTASTAR is applied in a raster-based case study concerning land-use suitability analysis to identify appropriate municipal solid waste landfill (MSW) sites in Northeast Greece. Moreover, robustness analysis tools are implemented to guarantee robust decision support results. More specifically, during the aggregation phase, the Stochastic Multiobjective Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) is used to indicate the frequency at which a site achieves the best ranking positions within a large set of alternative landfill sites.     

Stochastic convergence of random search methods to fixed size Pareto front approximations

In this paper we investigate to what extent random search methods, equipped with an archive of bounded size to store a limited amount of solutions and other data, are able to obtain good Pareto front approximations. We propose and analyze two archiving schemes that allow for maintaining a sequence of solution sets of given cardinality that converge with probability one to an ?-Pareto set of a certain quality, under very mild assumptions on the process used to sample new solutions. The first algorithm uses a hierarchical grid to define a family of approximate dominance relations to compare solutions and solution sets. Acceptance of a new solution is based on a potential function that counts the number of occupied boxes (on various levels) and thus maintains a strictly monotonous progress to a limit set that covers the Pareto front with non-overlapping boxes at finest resolution possible. The second algorithm uses an adaptation scheme to modify the current value of ? based on the information gathered during the run. This way it will be possible to achieve convergence to the best (smallest) ? value, and to a corresponding solution set of k solutions that ?-dominate all other solutions, which is probably the best possible result regarding the limit behavior of random search methods or metaheuristics for obtaining Pareto front approximations.     

Proactive heuristic procedures for robust project scheduling: An experimental analysis

Solution-robust project scheduling is a growing research field aiming at constructing proactive schedules to cope with multiple disruptions during project execution. When stochastic activity durations are considered, including time buffers between activities is a proven method to improve the stability of a baseline schedule.     

Multi-objective possibilistic model for portfolio selection with transaction cost

In this paper, we introduce the possibilistic mean value and variance of continuous distribution, rather than probability distributions. We propose a multi-objective Portfolio based model and added another entropy objective function to generate a well diversified asset portfolio within optimal asset allocation. For quantifying any potential return and risk, portfolio liquidity is taken into account and a multi-objective non-linear programming model for portfolio rebalancing with transaction cost is proposed. The models are illustrated with numerical examples.