Multicriteria decision support methodologies for auditing decisions: The case of qualified audit reports in the UK

All UK companies are required by company law to prepare financial statements that must comply with law and accounting standards. With the exception of very small companies, financial accounts must then be audited by UK registered auditors who must express an opinion on whether these statements are free from material misstatements, and have been prepared in accordance with legislation and relevant accounting standards (unqualified opinion) or not (qualified opinion). The objective of the present study is to explore the potentials of developing multicriteria decision aid models for reproducing, as accurately as possible, the auditors’ opinion on the financial statements of the firms. A sample of 625 company audited years with qualified statements and 625 ones with unqualified financial statements over the period 1998–2003 from 823 manufacturing private and public companies is being used in contrast to most of the previous works in the UK that have mainly focused on very small or very large public companies. Furthermore, the models are being developed and tested using the walk-forward approach as opposed to previous studies that employ simple holdout tests or resampling techniques. Discriminant analysis and logit analysis are also used for comparison purposes. The out-of-time and out-of-sample testing results indicate that the two multicriteria decision aid techniques achieve almost equal classification accuracies and are both more efficient than discriminant and logit analysis.     

Modelling banking sector stability with multicriteria approaches

Banking crises can be damaging for the economy, and as the recent experience has shown, nowadays they can spread rapidly across the globe with contagious effects. Therefore, the assessment of the stability of a county’s banking sector is important for regulators, depositors, investors and the general public. In the present study, we propose the development of classification models that assign the banking sectors of various countries in three classes, labelled “low stability”, “medium stability”, and “high stability”. The models are developed using three multicriteria decision aid techniques, which are well-suited to ordinal classification problems. We use a sample of 114 banking sectors (i.e., countries), and a set of criteria that includes indicators of the macroeconomic, institutional and regulatory environment, as well as basic characteristics of the banking and financial sector. The models are developed and tested using a tenfold cross-validation approach and they are benchmarked against models developed with discriminant analysis and logistic regression.     

Assessing performance factors in the UK banking sector: A multicriteria methodology

Further consolidation takes place not only among UK banks but also across borders, since some banks see size as a key factor in remaining competitive in international markets. Therefore, it is interesting to investigate the effectiveness and performance of UK banks. Based on their assets, banks are distinguished into small and large ones and a classification of UK banks in a multivariate environment for the period 1998–2002 takes place. The PAIRCLAS multicriteria methodology is employed to investigate the performance of UK small and large banks over multiple criteria, such as asset quality, capital adequacy, liquidity and efficiency/profitability. A comparison with discriminant analysis (DA) and logistic regression (LR) facilitates the investigation of the relative performance of PAIRCLAS against them. The results of the study determine the key factors that specify the classification of a bank as small or large and provide us with the responsible banking decision makers for future readjustments.     

Learning multicriteria classification models from examples: Decision rules in continuous space

The classification problem statement of multicriteria decision analysis is to model the classification of the alternatives/actions according to the decision maker's preferences. These models are based on outranking relations, utility functions or (linear) discriminant functions. Model parameters can be given explicitly or learnt from a preclassified set of alternatives/actions.In this paper we propose a novel approach, the Continuous Decision (CD) method, to learn parameters of a discriminant function, and we also introduce its extension, the Continuous Decision Tree (CDT) method, which describes the classification more accurately.The proposed methods are results of integration of Machine Learning methods in Decision Analysis. From a Machine Learning point of view, the CDT method can be considered as an extension of the C4.5 decision tree building algorithm that handles only numeric criteria but applies more complex tests in the inner nodes of the tree. For the sake of easier interpretation, the decision trees are transformed to rules.     

On the construction of mutual fund portfolios: A multicriteria methodology and an application to the Greek market of equity mutual funds

The evaluation of the performance of mutual funds (MFs) has been a very interesting research topic not only for researchers, but also for managers of financial, banking and investment institutions. In this paper, an integrated methodological framework for the evaluation of MF performance is proposed. The proposed methodology is based on the combination of discrete and continuous multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) methods for MFs selection and composition. In the first stage of the analysis the UTADIS MCDA method is employed in order to develop mutual fund's performance models supporting the selection of a small set of MFs, which will compose the final portfolios. In the second stage, a goal programming model is employed to determine the proportion of the selected MFs in the final portfolios. The methodology is applied on data of Greek MFs over the period 1999–2001 with encouraging results.     

Foreign versus domestic banks’ performance in the UK: a multicriteria approach

Although the banking sector in the UK is one of the most open and it is characterized by an increasing foreign bank presence, it remains relatively under-researched compared to studies for other countries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the performance of the UK banking sector focusing on the performance of the domestic banks as opposed to the performance of the foreign banks in order to test the hypothesis of higher performance of the domestic banks in a developed market. For this purpose, the UTADIS multicriteria methodology is employed to compare domestic and foreign banks performance over multiple criteria, such as profitability, liquidity, risk and efficiency, using a data sample covering 26 domestic and 32 foreign banks operating in the UK over the period 1998 to 2001. The results of the study, support the home advantage hypothesis, suggesting that the higher performance of domestic banks compared to foreign banks is also the case in the UK. The most important distinguishing performance factors between the two groups of banks are interest revenue to total earning assets, and profit before taxes to loans plus securities, which are higher for the domestic banks.AMS classification: 91B28     

一种基于GP算法的多准则决策函数构造方法

提出了一种基于遗传程序设计算法(GPA)构造多准则决策函数新方法,该方法构造的决策函数比典型的分层处理AHP(算术平均值)方法构造的决策函具有明显的稳定性.理论上期望得到实例的验证.     

A preference disaggregation decision support system for financial classification problems

Classification is one of the most extensively studied problems in the fields of multivariate statistical analysis, operations research and artificial intelligence. Decisions involving a classification of the alternative solutions are of major interest in finance, since several financial decision problems are best studied by classifying a set of alternative solutions (firms, loan applications, investment projects, etc.) in predefined classes. This paper proposes an alternative approach to the classical statistical methodologies that have been extensively used for the study of financial classification problems. The proposed methodology combines the preference disaggregation approach (a multicriteria decision aid method) with decision support systems. More specifically, the FINancial CLASsification (FINCLAS) multicriteria decision support system is presented. The system incorporates a plethora of financial modeling tools, along with powerful preference disaggregation methods that lead to the development of additive utility models for the classification of the considered alternatives into predefined classes. An application in credit granting is used to illustrate the capabilities of the system.     

A case-based fuzzy multicriteria decision support model for tropical cyclone forecasting

This paper proposes a multi-stage framework for intelligent decision support. The proposed framework integrates case-based reasoning and fuzzy multicriteria decision making techniques. It potentially leads to more accurate, flexible and efficient retrieval of alternatives that are most similar and most useful to the current decision situation. Additionally, the framework provides intelligent assistance in articulating domain expert's preferences through outranking relations. We illustrated the proposed approach in the context of tropical cyclone prediction. Ten years of historical observation data about tropical cyclones was represented within fuzzy multicriteria decision-making problem. We describe a prototype intelligent decision support system, which helps the forecaster in retrieving best-fitted solutions in terms of both usefulness and similarity to the current observed case.     

Credit risk assessment using a multicriteria hierarchical discrimination approach: A comparative analysis

Corporate credit risk assessment decisions involve two major issues: the determination of the probability of default and the estimation of potential future benefits and losses for credit granting. The former issue is addressed by classifying the firms seeking credit into homogeneous groups representing different levels of credit risk. Classification/discrimination procedures commonly employed for such purposes include statistical and econometric techniques. This paper explores the performance of the M.H.DIS method (Multi-group Hierarchical DIScrimination), an alternative approach that originates from multicriteria decision aid (MCDA). The method is used to develop a credit risk assessment model using a large sample of firms derived from the loan portfolio of a leading Greek commercial bank. A total of 1411 firms are considered in both training and holdout samples using financial information through the period 1994–1997. A comparison with discriminant analysis (DA), logit analysis (LA) and probit analysis (PA) is also conducted to investigate the relative performance of the M.H.DIS method as opposed to traditional tools used for credit risk assessment.     

Stability analysis of tree structured decision functions

In multicriteria decision problems many values must be assigned, such as the importance of the different criteria and the values of the alternatives with respect to subjective criteria. Since these assignments are approximate, it is very important to analyze the sensitivity of results when small modifications of the assignments are made. When solving a multicriteria decision problem, it is desirable to choose a decision function that leads to a solution as stable as possible. We propose here a method based on genetic programming that produces better decision functions than the commonly used ones. The theoretical expectations are validated by case studies.     

Group decision-making based on concepts of ideal and anti-ideal points in a fuzzy environment

Decision-making problems (location selection) often involve a complex decision-making process in which multiple requirements and uncertain conditions have to be taken into consideration simultaneously. In evaluating the suitability of alternatives, quantitative/qualitative assessments are often required to deal with uncertainty, subjectiveness and imprecise data, which are best represented with fuzzy data. This paper presents a new method of analysis of multicriteria based on the incorporated efficient fuzzy model and concepts of positive ideal and negative ideal points to solve decision-making problems with multi-judges and multicriteria in real-life situations. As a result, effective decisions can be made on the basis of consistent evaluation results. Finally, this paper uses a numerical example of location selection to demonstrate the applicability of this method, with its simplicity in both concept and computation. The results show that this method can be implemented as an effective decision aid in selecting location or decision-making problems.     

Stability in vector maximization—A survey

Stability and sensitivity analysis becomes more and more attractive also in the area of multicriteria decision making (MCDM). Influences of parameter changes concerning the right-hand-side or the objective functions respectively or changes of the domination structure on the solution of various mathematical models of vectormaximization problems — as developed in several publications — are examined in this paper and a survey on the corresponding results is given. The survey is subdivided with respect to the various model structures of the decision problem — i.e. linear or nonlinear, deterministic or stochastic, static or dynamic — and with respect to the above mentioned investigated changes.     

Constrained optimization using multiple objective programming

In practical applications of mathematical programming it is frequently observed that the decision maker prefers apparently suboptimal solutions. A natural explanation for this phenomenon is that the applied mathematical model was not sufficiently realistic and did not fully represent all the decision makers criteria and constraints. Since multicriteria optimization approaches are specifically designed to incorporate such complex preference structures, they gain more and more importance in application areas as, for example, engineering design and capital budgeting. The aim of this paper is to analyze optimization problems both from a constrained programming and a multicriteria programming perspective. It is shown that both formulations share important properties, and that many classical solution approaches have correspondences in the respective models. The analysis naturally leads to a discussion of the applicability of some recent approximation techniques for multicriteria programming problems for the approximation of optimal solutions and of Lagrange multipliers in convex constrained programming. Convergence results are proven for convex and nonconvex problems.     

Spatial multicriteria decision support for robust land-use suitability: The case of landfill site selection in Northeastern Greece

Multicriteria spatial decision support systems (MC-SDSS) have emerged as an integration of geographical information systems (GIS) and multiple criteria decision aid (MCDA) methods for incorporating conflicting objectives and decision makers’ preferences into spatial decision models. In this paper, we present spatial UTASTAR (S-UTASTAR), a raster-based MC-SDSS for land-use suitability analysis. The multicriteria component of the system is based on the UTA-type disaggregation-aggregation approach. S-UTASTAR is applied in a raster-based case study concerning land-use suitability analysis to identify appropriate municipal solid waste landfill (MSW) sites in Northeast Greece. Moreover, robustness analysis tools are implemented to guarantee robust decision support results. More specifically, during the aggregation phase, the Stochastic Multiobjective Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) is used to indicate the frequency at which a site achieves the best ranking positions within a large set of alternative landfill sites.     

Multicriteria approaches for ranking of efficient units in DEA models

Data envelopment analysis models usually split decision making units into two basic groups, efficient and inefficient. Efficiency score of inefficient units allows their ranking but efficient units cannot be ranked directly because of their maximum efficiency. That is why there are formulated several models for ranking of efficient units. The paper presents two original models for ranking of efficient units in data envelopment analysis—they are based on multiple criteria decision making techniques—goal programming and analytic hierarchy process. The first model uses goal programming methodology and minimizes either the sum of undesirable deviations or maximal undesirable deviation from the efficient frontier. The second approach is analytic hierarchy process model for ranking of efficient units. The two presented models are compared with several super-efficiency models and other approaches for ranking decision making units in DEA models including definitions based on distances from optimistic and pessimistic envelopes and cross efficiency evaluation models. The results of the analysis by all presented models are illustrated on a real data set—evaluation of 194 bank branches of one of the Czech commercial banks.     

Cost,revenue and profit efficiency measurement in DEA: A directional distance function approach

Estimation of efficiency of firms in a non-competitive market characterized by heterogeneous inputs and outputs along with their varying prices is questionable when factor-based technology sets are used in data envelopment analysis (DEA). In this scenario, a value-based technology becomes an appropriate reference technology against which efficiency can be assessed. In this contribution, the value-based models of Tone (2002) are extended in a directional DEA set up to develop new directional cost- and revenue-based measures of efficiency, which are then decomposed into their respective directional value-based technical and allocative efficiencies. These new directional value-based measures are more general, and include the existing value-based measures as special cases. These measures satisfy several desirable properties of an ideal efficiency measure. These new measures are advantageous over the existing ones in terms of (1) their ability to satisfy the most important property of translation invariance; (2) choices over the use of suitable direction vectors in handling negative data; and (3) flexibility in providing the decision makers with the option of specifying preferable direction vectors to incorporate their preferences. Finally, under the condition of no prior unit price information, a directional value-based measure of profit inefficiency is developed for firms whose underlying objectives are profit maximization. For an illustrative empirical application, our new measures are applied to a real-life data set of 50 US banks to draw inferences about the production correspondence of banking industry.     

Multicriteria decision making on maintenance: Spares and contracts planning

The competitiveness of an industrial system is directly related to decision making in areas of product support logistics, such as the maintenance area. Multicriteria decision making takes into account various aspects associated with competitiveness of the system. This paper presents multicriteria decision models for two maintenance problems: repair contract selection and spares provisioning. In the repair contract problem the model incorporates consequences modelled through a multiattribute utility function. These consequences consist of contract cost and system performance, represented by the system interruption time. Two criteria (risk and cost) are combined through a multiattribute utility function in the spares provisioning decision model. This paper presents the formulation and derivations for both models and the numerical application illustrates the use of models including sensitivity analysis.     

Multicriteria dynamic programming with an application to the integer case

Fundamental dynamic programming recursive equations are extended to the multicriteria framework. In particular, a more detailed procedure for a general recursive solution scheme for the multicriteria discrete mathematical programming problem is developed. Definitions of lower and upper bounds are offered for the multicriteria case and are incorporated into the recursive equations to aid problem solution by eliminating inefficient subpolicies. Computational results are reported for a set of 0–1 integer linear programming problems.This research was supported in part by CONACYT (Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Technologia), Mexico City, Mexico.     

Fitness model for tiered structure in the interbank market

Tiered structure is observed in a range of countries' banking systems. In that case, relatively few first‐tier banks are not only interconnected, but are connected with second‐tier banks, whereas second‐tier banks are almost exclusively connected with first‐tier banks. This study uses the theory of complex networks to quantitatively characterize the formation of tiered structure in banking systems. The interbank market network model constructed in this article reproduces tiered structure and various statistical properties, namely, a small‐world property and a disassortative mixing property as well as a reciprocal property. This network modeling of the interbank market could be an efficient way to understand the bank behavior in the interbank market. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 2012