Callable risky perpetual debt with protection period

Issuances in the USD 260 Bn global market of perpetual risky debt are often motivated by capital requirements for financial institutions. We analyze callable risky perpetual debt emphasizing an initial protection (‘grace’) period before the debt may be called. The total market value of debt including the call option is expressed as a portfolio of perpetual debt and barrier options with a time dependent barrier. We also analyze how an issuer’s optimal bankruptcy decision is affected by the existence of the call option by using closed-form approximations. The model quantifies the increased coupon and the decreased initial bankruptcy level caused by the embedded option. Examples indicate that our closed form model produces reasonably precise coupon rates compared to numerical solutions. The credit-spread produced by our model is in a realistic order of magnitude compared to market data.     

Optimal control problem for an insurance surplus model with debt liability

For an insurance company with a debt liability, they could make some management actions, such as reinsurance, paying dividends, and capital injection, to balance the profitability and financial bankruptcy. Our objective is to determine risk retention rate, dividend, and capital injection strategy so as to maximize the expected discounted dividends minus the discounted cost of capital injection until the time of ruin. We assume that the dividend payments and capital injection should occur with both fixed and proportional costs. We obtain explicit expressions of the optimal value functions as well as the corresponding optimal joint strategies by routine procedures in a comprehensive basic model using a new technique to solve the related equations. Our results show that whether recapitalizing is profitable or not depends on the costs of capital raising and that the firm injects capital only when the reserves are zero and recapitalizes to the optimal reserves level if the cost of external capital is low. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A mixed integer linear programming model for optimal sovereign debt issuance

Governments borrow funds to finance the excess of cash payments or interest payments over receipts, usually by issuing fixed income debt and index-linked debt. The goal of this work is to propose a stochastic optimization-based approach to determine the composition of the portfolio issued over a series of government auctions for the fixed income debt, to minimize the cost of servicing debt while controlling risk and maintaining market liquidity. We show that this debt issuance problem can be modeled as a mixed integer linear programming problem with a receding horizon. The stochastic model for the interest rates is calibrated using a Kalman filter and the future interest rates are represented using a recombining trinomial lattice for the purpose of scenario-based optimization. The use of a latent factor interest rate model and a recombining lattice provides us with a realistic, yet very tractable scenario generator and allows us to do a multi-stage stochastic optimization involving integer variables on an ordinary desktop in a matter of seconds. This, in turn, facilitates frequent re-calibration of the interest rate model and re-optimization of the issuance throughout the budgetary year allows us to respond to the changes in the interest rate environment. We successfully demonstrate the utility of our approach by out-of-sample back-testing on the UK debt issuance data.     

A multi-objective multi-period stochastic programming model for public debt management

While raising debt on behalf of the government, public debt managers need to consider several possibly conflicting objectives and have to find an appropriate combination for government debt taking into account the uncertainty with regard to the future state of the economy. In this paper, we explicitly consider the underlying uncertainties with a complex multi-period stochastic programming model that captures the trade-offs between the objectives. The model is designed to aid the decision makers in formulating the debt issuance strategy. We apply an interactive procedure that guides the issuer to identify good strategies and demonstrate this approach for the public debt management problem of Turkey.     

Optimal stopping in infinite horizon: An eigenfunction expansion approach

We develop an eigenfunction expansion based value iteration algorithm to solve discrete time infinite horizon optimal stopping problems for a rich class of Markov processes that are important in applications. We provide convergence analysis for the value function and the exercise boundary, and derive easily computable error bounds for value iterations. As an application we develop a fast and accurate algorithm for pricing callable perpetual bonds under the CIR short rate model.     

Structural jump-diffusion model for pricing collateralized debt obligations tranches

This paper considers the pricing problem of collateralized debt obligations tranches under a structural jump-diffusion model, where the asset value of each reference entity is generated by a geometric Brownian motion and jump with an asymmetric double exponential distribution. Conditioned on the common factor of individual entity, this paper gets the conditional distribution, and further obtains the loss distribution of the whole reference portfolio. Based on the semi-analytic approach, the fair spreads of collateralized debt obligations tranches, i.e., the prices of collateralized debt obligations tranches, are derived.     

Valuing risky debt: A new model combining structural information with the reduced-form approach

A new model of credit risk is proposed in which the intensity of default is described by an additional stochastic differential equation coupled with the process of the obligor’s asset value. Such an approach allows us to incorporate structural information as well as to capture the effect of external factors (e.g. macroeconomic factors) in a both parsimonious and economically consistent way. From the practical standpoint, the proposed model offers great flexibility and allows us to obtain credit spread curves of many different shapes, including double humped term structures. Furthermore, an approximate closed-form solution is derived, which is accurate, easy to implement, and allows for an efficient calibration to realized credit spreads. Numerical experiments are presented showing that the novel approach provides a very satisfactory fitting to market data and outperforms the model developed by Madan and Unal (2000).     

具有一般跳幅度分布的跳扩散模型下永久公司债券的定价

在公司资产价值演化服从具有一般跳幅度分布的跳扩散模型下,采用结构化方法研究具有无限到期日公司债券的定价问题,通过微分方程的方法和无套利原理获得了公司债券,股东权益和公司总价值的定价表达式以及最佳违约边界的表达式.     

A stochastic programming model for funding single premium deferred annuities

Single Premium Deferred Annuities (SPDAs) are investment vehicles, offered to investors by insurance companies as a means of providing income past their retirement age. They are mirror images of insurance policies. However, the propensity of individuals to shift part, or all, of their investment into different annuities creates substantial uncertainties for the insurance company. In this paper we develop amultiperiod, dynamic stochastic program that deals with the problem of funding SPDA liabilities. The model recognizes explicitly the uncertainties inherent in this problem due to both interest rate volatility and the behavior of individual investors. Empirical results are presented with the use of the model for the funding of an SPDA liability stream using government bonds, mortgage-backed securities and derivative products. Research partially supported by NSF grants CCR-9104042 and SES-91-00216, and AFOSR grant 91-0168. Computing resources were made available by AHPCRC at the University of Minnesota, by NPAC at Syracuse University, New York, and by the GRASP Laboratory at Computer Science Department at University of Pennsylvania.     

Hybrid or electric vehicles? A real options perspective

This paper investigates the decision of an automaker concerning the alternative promotion of a hybrid vehicle (HV) and a full electric vehicle (EV). We evaluate the HV project by considering the option to change promotion from the HV to the EV in the future. The results not only extend previous findings concerning American options on multiple assets, but also include several new implications. One notable observation is that increased market demand for EVs can accelerate the promotion of the HV because of the embedded option.     

基于指数效用无差异价值过程的不完备市场下的可违约期权的定价模型

本文研究不完备市场情况下的可违约期权的动态指数效用无差异定价。不同于大多数的可违约期权定价文献,本文没有假定鞅的不变性,即通常的H 假设,而是通过信息流的扩张和测度的变换,将信用风险敏感的资产转换为一个G 局部鞅,其后引入一个具体的倒向随机微分方程（BSDE）,并证明该方程解的存在性与唯一性;然后利用无差异价值过程C_t（B,α）在最小熵鞅测度下对一般的投资策略为上鞅,而在最优投资策略下为鞅的事实,证明无差异价值过程C_t（B,α）就是BSDE 的解,从而给出可违约期权的定价。     

Hedging of defaultable claims in a structural model using a locally risk-minimizing approach

In the context of a locally risk-minimizing approach, the problem of hedging defaultable claims and their Föllmer–Schweizer decompositions are discussed in a structural model. This is done when the underlying process is a finite variation Lévy process and the claims pay a predetermined payout at maturity, contingent on no prior default. More precisely, in this particular framework, the locally risk-minimizing approach is carried out when the underlying process has jumps, the derivative is linked to a default event, and the probability measure is not necessarily risk-neutral.     

具有跳扩散模型下永久公司债券的定价和最佳资产结构

综合运用偏微分方程方法和结构化方法,在公司资产价值演化服从跳扩散模型下,研究永久公司债券的定价问题和最佳资产结构问题,获得了公司债券,股东权益和公司总价值的定价表达式和最佳杠杆比率的表达式.     

A hybrid model of the Akamai adaptive streaming control system

Video streaming is the application generating the largest fraction of the Internet traffic. Adaptive video streaming adds to classic video streaming the possibility of dynamically adapting the video bitrate to track the time-varying network available bandwidth, avoid playback interruptions and ensure the delivery of the best video quality. This work focuses on the adaptive video streaming control system employed by Akamai, a major Content Delivery Network operator whose video delivery system is used by several video streaming platforms, including Livestream. Differently from the typical client-side control, Akamai employs an interesting and unique hybrid client/server control architecture. In this paper we propose and experimentally validate a closed loop mathematical model of the control system in the form of a hybrid automaton. The model is analyzed to derive key properties which can be used to properly tune the controller parameters.     

风险项目的投资期权分析

本文讨论了风险投资家向企业主融资时的投资期权,求出了投资期权的表达式,并对其中的一些参数进行了分析.     

增长期权对最优资本结构的影响研究：企业生命周期的视角

资产构成和生命周期的动态关系决定了企业最优资本结构的变化趋势。本文在利息税盾和破产成本的权衡理论框架下,运用实物期权方法,理论上揭示了增长期权动态执行导致最优资本结构随企业生命周期的变化规律,扩展分析了股东-债权人代理冲突对最优资本结构的影响,并提供了基于中国沪深A股上市公司的经验证据。结果表明：随着企业由年轻走向成熟,增长期权不断执行和在位资产逐渐累积会降低企业总体的破产风险,从而企业最优财务杠杆呈现上升趋势且增长速度逐渐放缓;股东和债权人在增长期权执行决策上的代理冲突导致的投资不足会降低最优财务杠杆,但代理成本随企业生命周期推进呈递减趋势。     

A simple decision model of counterproliferation

We develop a simple decision model of counterproliferation involving a status quo “incumbent” and a nuclear “entrant”. The problem is examined as a one-stage interaction in two phases: nuclear development and deployment. We examine the conditions that will influence the decision to move pre-emptively against a proliferator's nuclear program. Particular attention is given to the role of uncertainty in determining the expected costs of action at different points in the entrant's weapon's development and deployment cycle. The model permits us to determine the optimal time to act given varying levels of information concerning entrant behavior. In conclusion, we examine the tradeoffs between the expected costs of action and the costs of intelligence.     

Calibration of a basket option model applied to company valuation

Applying real options thinking to company valuation seems theoretically and intuitively appealing. However, the real option analogy of a single European option as well as the compound option proxy perform poorly when applied to company valuation. We therefore suggest to rework the building blocks of real option applications to corporate valuation.  We introduce a framework to delineate the distribution of the underlying asset in the risk neutral world, which is important in order to value any derivative. This is achieved by an algorithm to calibrate a basket option model using real world data of observed share prices. The fitting takes account of the class of stable distributions. The index of stability of asymmetric α stable distribution serves as an over-all parameter to characterise the specific distribution.     

A simple derivation of Kirk’s approximation for spread options

Ever since Kirk proposed an approximate price formula for a European call spread option in 1995, Kirk’s approximation has become the most widely used among the practitioners, especially in the energy markets. It is well known that Kirk’s approximation extends from Margrabe’s exchange option formula but no explicit derivation is available or has ever been published. In this paper we apply the idea of WKB method to provide a simple derivation of Kirk’s approximation and discuss its validity.     

Dividend problems in the dual model with diffusion and exponentially distributed observation time

Consider dividend problems in the dual model with diffusion and exponentially distributed observation time where dividends are paid according to a barrier strategy. Assume that dividends can only be paid with a certain probability at each point of time, that is, on each observation, if the surplus exceeds the barrier, the excess is paid as dividend. In this paper, integro-differential equations for the expected discounted sum of dividends paid until ruin and the Laplace transform of ruin time are derived. When the gains are exponentially distributed, explicit expressions for the ruin probability, the expected discounted sum of dividends paid until ruin, the Laplace transform of ruin time and the expectation of ruin time are also obtained.