Optimal inventory policy with supply uncertainty and demand cancellation

We consider a periodic review model where the firm manages its inventory under supply uncertainty and demand cancellation. We show that because of supply uncertainty, the optimal inventory policy has the structure of re-order point type. That is, we order if the initial inventory falls below this re-order point, otherwise we do not order. This is in contrast to the work of Yuan and Cheung (2003) who prove the optimality of an order up to policy in the absence of supply uncertainty. We also investigate the impact of supply uncertainty and demand cancellation on the performance of the supply chain. Using our model, we are able to quantify the importance of reducing the variance of either the distribution of yield or the distribution of demand cancellation. The single, multiple periods and the infinite horizon models are studied.     

Single versus multiple supplier sourcing strategies

Successful supply chain management necessitates an effective sourcing strategy to combat uncertainties in both supply and demand. In particular, supply disruption results in excessive downtime of production resources, upstream and downstream supply chain repercussions, and eventually a loss in the market value of the firm. In this paper we analyze single period, single product sourcing decisions under demand uncertainty. Our approach integrates product prices, supplier costs, supplier capacities, historical supplier reliabilities and firm specific inventory costs. A unique feature of our approach is the integration of a firm specific supplier diversification function. We also extend our analysis to examine the impact of minimum supplier order quantities. Our results indicate that single sourcing is a dominant strategy only when supplier capacities are large relative to the product demand and when the firm does not obtain diversification benefits. In other cases, we find that multiple sourcing is an optimal sourcing strategy. We also characterize a non-intuitive trade-off between supplier minimum order quantities, costs, and supplier reliabilities. Finally, we examine the robustness of our results through an extensive numerical analysis of the key parameters of our model.     

A continuous-review inventory model with random disruptions at the primary supplier

We consider a continuous-review inventory problem for a retailer facing constant customer demand for a single product. This retailer is assumed to follow the well known and widely used order-up-to policy in making replenishment decisions, and can order from two suppliers who differ in reliability and costs. Supplier 1, the primary supplier, is cheaper, but is subject to random disruptions. Supplier 2, the backup supplier or the contingent source, is more expensive, but is perfectly reliable. If Supplier 1 is available when the inventory level at the retailer reaches the reorder point, the retailer orders from Supplier 1. Otherwise, it will wait for a while to see if Supplier 1 can recover from the disruption quickly. If so, it will still get replenishment from Supplier 1 to take advantage of its lower charge. However, the retailer will reroute to the backup supplier if Supplier 1 still does not recover from the disruption when the cap of waiting (the maximal waiting time of the retailer if Supplier 1 is disrupted) is reached. We analytically study the optimal sourcing and replenishment decisions at the retailer, and the impacts of various problem parameters on the optimal decisions. We also conduct extensive numerical experiments to compare different sourcing and replenishment decisions the retailer can make and get further managerial insights into the problem.     

Optimizing Supply Shortage Decisions in Base Stock Distribution Operations

This paper addresses policies and agreements between suppliers and customers for handling supply shortages in base-stock systems under uncertain demand. We investigate the impacts that backlogging and expediting decisions have on inventory and transportation costs in these systems and develop a model for deciding whether a supplier should completely backlog, completely expedite, or employ some combination of backlogging and expediting shortages. Our results indicate that practical cases exist where some combination of both expediting and backlogging supply shortages outperforms either completely expediting or backlogging all shortages. Including transportation costs in our model provides incentive to employ `hybrid' policies that partially expedite and partially backlog excess demands within a given period. Our model demonstrates how inventory policy decisions directly impact transportation costs and provides a heuristic approach for jointly minimizing expected inventory and transportation costs.     

A single-period inventory placement problem for a supply chain with the expected profit objective

Consider the expected profit maximizing inventory placement problem in an N-stage, supply chain facing a stochastic demand for a single planning period for a specialty item with a very short selling season. Each stage is a stocking point holding some form of inventory (e.g., raw materials, subassemblies, product returns or finished products) that after a suitable transformation can satisfy customer demand. Stocking decisions are made before demand occurs. Because of delays, only a known fraction of demand at a stage will wait for shipments. Unsatisfied demand is lost. The revenue, salvage value, ordering, shipping, processing, and lost sales costs are proportional. There are fixed costs for utilizing stages for stock storage. After characterizing an optimal solution, we propose an algorithm for its computation. For the zero fixed cost case, the computations can be done on a spreadsheet given normal demands. For the nonnegative fixed cost case, we develop an effective branch and bound algorithm.     

Optimal inventory management for a retail chain with diverse store demands

Item demands at individual retail stores in a chain often differ significantly, due to local economic conditions, cultural and demographic differences and variations in store format. Accounting for these variations appropriately in inventory management can significantly improve retailers’ profits. For example, it is shown that having greater differences across the mean store demands leads to a higher expected profit, for a given inventory and total mean demand. If more than one inventory shipment per season is possible, the analysis becomes dynamic by including updated demand forecasts for each store and re-optimizing store inventory policies in midseason. In this paper, we formulate a dynamic stochastic optimization model that determines the total order size and the optimal inventory allocation across nonidentical stores in each period. A generalized Bayesian inference model is used for demands that are partially correlated across the stores and time periods. We also derive a normal approximation for the excess inventory from the previous period, which allows the dynamic programming formulation to be easily solved. We analyze the tradeoffs between obtaining information and profitability, e.g., stocking more stores in period 1 provides more demand information for period 2, but does not necessarily lead to higher total profit. Numerical analyses compare the expected profits of alternative supply chain strategies, as well as the sensitivity to different distributions of demand across the stores. This leads to novel strategic insights that arise from adopting inventory policies that vary by store type.     

The value of early order commitment in a two-level supply chain

One approach to supply chain coordination is early order commitment, whereby a retailer commits to purchase a fixed-order quantity at a fixed delivery time before demand uncertainty is resolved. In this paper, we develop an analytical model to quantify the cost savings of an early order commitment in a two-level supply chain where demand is serially correlated. A decision rule is derived to determine whether early order commitment will benefit the supply chain, and accordingly to determine the optimal timing for early commitment. Our results indicate that the supply chain would experience greater savings from early order commitment when – (a) the inventory item receives less value-added activities at the retailer site; (b) the manufacturing lead time is short; (c) demand correlation over time is positive but weak; or (d) the delivery lead time is long (if a condition exists). We also propose a rebate scheme for the supply chain partners to share the gains of practicing early order commitment.     

Random yield supply chain with a yield dependent secondary market

This paper considers a simple supply chain with one supplier and one retailer where the supplier’s production is subject to random yield and the retailer faces uncertain demand. There exists a secondary market for acquiring or disposing products by the supplier. We study both the centralized and decentralized systems. In the decentralized system, a no risk sharing contract and a risk sharing minimum commitment contract are analyzed. The supply chain with the risk sharing contract is further analyzed with a constant secondary market price and a yield dependent secondary market price. We present both the supplier’s and the retailer’s optimal strategies and provide insights for managers when making decisions under random yield risk and demand uncertainty. We find that the secondary market generally has a positive impact on supply chain performance and the actual effect of random yield risk on the supply chain performance depends on cost parameters and supply chain contract settings. Under certain conditions, reducing yield randomness may weaken the double marginalization effect and improve the chain performance. From the numerical study, we also show that there exists an optimal commitment level for the supply chain.     

The effect of supply uncertainty in price-setting newsvendor models

We consider a price-setting newsvendor model in which a firm needs to make joint inventory and pricing decisions before the selling season. The supply process is uncertain such that the received quantity is the product of the order quantity and a random yield rate. Two cost structures are investigated, the in-house production case in which the firm pays for the input quantity and the procurement case in which the firm pays for the quantity received only. Our objective is to investigate the effect of yield randomness on optimal decisions and expected profit. By using the theory of stochastic comparisons, we find that under both cost structures, a less variable yield rate leads to a lower optimal price and a higher expected profit. Moreover, we show that in the in-house production case, a stochastically larger yield rate also results in a lower optimal price and a higher profit, but this is not true in the procurement case. Examples show that the effect of supply uncertainty on optimal order quantity is not universal.     

A single-period inventory placement problem for a supply system with the satisficing objective

Consider the inventory placement problem in an N-stage supply system facing a stochastic demand for a single planning period. Each stage is a stocking point holding some form of inventory (e.g., raw materials, subassemblies, product returns or finished products) that after a suitable transformation can satisfy demand. Stocking decisions are made before demand occurs. Unsatisfied demands are lost. The revenue, salvage value, ordering, transformation, and lost sales costs are proportional. There are fixed costs for utilizing stages for stock storage. The objective is to maximize the probability of achieving a given target profit level.     

Inventory competition and allocation in a multi-channel distribution system

Consider a supply chain involving one manufacturer and one independent retailer. The manufacturer distributes her product to the end consumer through the independent retailer as well as through her direct channel. Each of the two channels faces a stochastic demand. If one channel is out of stock, a fraction of the unsatisfied customers visit the other channel, which induces inventory competition between the channels. Under the scenario described above, will the manufacturer ever undercut the retailer’s order when the capacity is infinite? What are the equilibria of the game? How does a capacity constraint affect the equilibrium outcome? What is the optimal inventory allocation strategy for the manufacturer? Using a game theoretic model we seek answers to the above questions. Both the capacitated and the infinite capacity games are considered. We establish the necessary condition for a manufacturer to undercut a retailer’s order and show that a manufacturer may deny the retailer of inventory even when the capacity is ample. We show that there can be an equilibrium in the capacitated game where a manufacturer might not use the entire capacity and still deny a retailer inventory. We also show that a mild capacity constraint may make both parties better off and thereby increase the total supply chain profit. We develop a simple yet practical contract called the reverse revenue sharing contract and show that along with a fixed franchise fee this contract can coordinates our decentralized supply chain.     

Interpreting supply chain dynamics: A quasi-chaos perspective

Chaotic phenomena, chaos amplification and other interesting nonlinear behaviors have been observed in supply chain systems. Chaos can be defined theoretically if the dynamics under study are produced only by deterministic factors. However, deterministic settings rarely present themselves in reality. In fact, real data are typically unknown. How can the chaos theory and its related methodology be applied in the real world? When the demand is stochastic, the interpretation and distribution of the Lyapunov exponents derived from the effective inventory at different supply chain levels are not similar to those under deterministic demand settings. Are the observed dynamics of the effective inventory random, chaotic, or simply quasi-chaos? In this study, we investigate a situation whereby the chaos analysis is applied to a time series as if its underlying structure, deterministic or stochastic, is unknown. The result shows clear distinction in chaos characterization between the two categories of demand process, deterministic vs. stochastic. It also highlights the complexity of the interplay between stochastic demand processes and nonlinear dynamics. Therefore, caution should be exercised in interpreting system dynamics when applying chaos analysis to a system of unknown underlying structure. By understanding this delicate interplay, decision makers have the better chance to tackle the problem correctly or more effectively at the demand end or the supply end.     

Ordering policy and coordination of a supply chain with two-period demand uncertainty

We develop a two-period game model of a one-manufacturer and one-retailer supply chain to investigate the optimal decisions of the players, where stock-out and holding costs are incorporated into the model. The demand at each period is stochastic and price sharply drops in mid-life. We assume the retailer has a single order opportunity, and decides how much inventory to keep in the middle of selling season. We show that both the price-protection mid-life and end-of-life returns (PME) scheme and the only mid-life and end-of-life returns (ME) scheme may achieve channel coordination and access a ‘win-win’ situation under some conditions. The larger the lowest expected profit of the retailer, the lower the possibility of ‘win-win’ situation will be. Combined with the analysis of feasible regions for coordination policies, we find that PME scheme is not always better than ME scheme from the perspective of implementable mechanism. Finally, we find that adopting the dispose-down-to (DDT) policy can bring a larger improvement of the expected channel profit in the centralized setting, and it is interesting that by using DDT policy, double marginalization occurs only at Period 1, and however, does not plague the retailer in Period 2.     

Managing a dual-channel supply chain under price and delivery-time dependent stochastic demand

Several leading manufacturers recently combined the traditional retail channel with a direct online channel to reach a wider range of customers. We examine such a dual-channel supply chain under price and delivery-time dependent stochastic customer demand. We consider five decision variables, the price and order quantity for both the retail and the online channels and the delivery time for the online channel. Uncertainty frequently arises in both retail and online channels and so additional inventory management is required to control shortage or overstock and that has an effect on the optimal order quantity, price, and lead time. We developed mathematical models with the profit maximization motive. We analyze both centralized and decentralized systems for unknown distribution function of the random variables through a distribution-free approach and also for known distribution function. We examine the effect of delivery lead time and customers’ channel preference on the optimal operation. For supply chain coordination a hybrid all-unit quantity discount along a franchise fee contract is used. Moreover, we use the generalized asymmetric Nash bargaining for surplus profit distribution. A numerical example illustrates the findings of the model and the managerial insights are summarized for centralized, decentralized, and coordinated scenarios.     

Profit criteria involving risk in price setting of virtual products

This work deals with pricing of “virtual” products, i.e., products that a retailer can supply after demand has been realized. Such products allow the retailer to avoid holding costs and ensure timely fulfillment of demand with no risk of shortage. Demand is commonly price-dependent and uncertain, and we seek to maximize each of three criteria: expected profit, the likelihood of achieving a profit target, and the profit for a given percentile. Simultaneous multiple criteria are also explored. Two forms of demand uncertainty are considered in the analysis: the multiplicative form, where, due to stochastic dominance, all the investigated profit criteria—and, in fact, any utility function of the profit—can be optimized simultaneously; and the additive form, where stochastic dominance cannot occur. Under the multiplicative form of demand, the property of stochastic dominance is shown to hold in a two-echelon supply chain (comprising both the supplier and the retailer) and in a centralized system.     

Managing inventory and service levels in a safety stock‐based inventory routing system with stochastic retailer demands

The inherent uncertainty in supply chain systems compels managers to be more perceptive to the stochastic nature of the systems' major parameters, such as suppliers' reliability, retailers' demands, and facility production capacities. To deal with the uncertainty inherent to the parameters of the stochastic supply chain optimization problems and to determine optimal or close to optimal policies, many approximate deterministic equivalent models are proposed. In this paper, we consider the stochastic periodic inventory routing problem modeled as chance‐constrained optimization problem. We then propose a safety stock‐based deterministic optimization model to determine near‐optimal solutions to this chance‐constrained optimization problem. We investigate the issue of adequately setting safety stocks at the supplier's warehouse and at the retailers so that the promised service levels to the retailers are guaranteed, while distribution costs as well as inventory throughout the system are optimized. The proposed deterministic models strive to optimize the safety stock levels in line with the planned service levels at the retailers. Different safety stock models are investigated and analyzed, and the results are illustrated on two comprehensively worked out cases. We conclude this analysis with some insights on how safety stocks are to be determined, allocated, and coordinated in stochastic periodic inventory routing problem. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inventory sharing via circular unidirectional chaining

This research studies the performance of circular unidirectional chaining – a “lean” configuration of lateral inventory sharing among retailers or warehouses – and compares its performance to that of no pooling and complete pooling in terms of expected costs and optimal order quantities. Each retailer faces uncertain demand, and we wish to minimize procurement, shortage and transshipment costs. In a circular unidirectional chain all retailers are connected in a closed loop, so that each retailer can cooperate with exactly two others as follows: receive units (if needed?available) from the left “neighbor” and send units (if needed?available) to the right, and a retailer who receives units from one neighbor is not allowed to send any units to its other neighbor. If the chain consists of at least three nodes and demands across nodes are i.i.d., its performance turns out to be independent of the number of nodes. The optimal stocking is therefore solved analytically. Analytical comparative statics with respect to cost parameters and demand distributions are provided. We also examine thoroughly the cases of uniform demand distribution (analytically) and normal demand distribution (numerically). In the uniform case with free transshipment, a unidirectional chain can save up to 1/3 of the expected cost of separate newsvendors caused by uncertainty. For three nodes, the advantage of complete pooling over unidirectional chaining does not exceed 19%.     

Impact of equity and equality on stability and collusion in a decentralized network

We consider a firm that procures a product from a regular supplier whose production is subject to both supply disruption and random yield risks and a backup supplier whose production capacity requires reservation in advance. Under both deterministic and stochastic demand, we study the impact of the two types of supply risks on the firm’s optimal procurement decisions and the importance of correctly identifying the source of supply risks. We find that if the overall supply risk is unchanged but its main source shifts from random yield to supply disruption, the firm should order more from the regular supplier and reserve less capacity from the backup supplier. Ignoring the existence of supply disruption leads to under-utilization of the regular supplier and over-utilization of the backup supplier. Moreover, we examine the option value of the reserved capacity that is affected by the uncertainty of customer demand. We find that the option value increases/decreases in demand uncertainty if the reservation capacity is exercised after/before demand is realized.     

Agricultural planning of annual plants under demand,maturation, harvest,and yield risk

In this study we present a planning methodology for a firm whose objective is to match the random supply of annual premium fruits and vegetables from a number of contracted farms and the random demand from the retailers during the planning period. The supply uncertainty is due to the uncertainty of the maturation time, harvest time, and yield. The demand uncertainty is the uncertainty of weekly demand from the retailers. We provide a planning methodology to determine the farm areas and the seeding times for annual plants that survive for only one growing season in such a way that the expected total profit is maximized. Both the single period and the multi period cases are analyzed depending on the type of the plant. The performance of the solution methodology is evaluated by using numerical experiments. These experiments show that the proposed methodology matches random supply and random demand in a very effective way and improves the expected profit substantially compared to the planning approaches where the uncertainties are not taken into consideration.     

Collaborative production planning of supply chain under price and demand uncertainty

This research is motivated by an automobile manufacturing supply chain network. It involves a multi-echelon production system with material supply, component fabrication, manufacturing, and final product distribution activities. We address the production planning issue by considering bill of materials and the trade-offs between inventories, production costs and customer service level. Due to its complexity, an integrated solution framework which combines scatter evolutionary algorithm, fuzzy programming and stochastic chance-constrained programming are combined to jointly take up the issue. We conduct a computational study to evaluate the model. Numerical results using the proposed algorithm confirm the advantage of the integrated planning approach. Compared with other solution methodologies, the supply chain profits from the proposed approach consistently outperform, in some cases up to 13% better. The impacts of uncertainty in demand, material price, and other parameters on the performance of the supply chain are studied through sensitivity analysis. We found the proposed model is effective in developing robust production plans under various market conditions.