Families of relations modelling preferences under incomplete information

Let us consider a preferential information of type preference–indifference–incomparability (P, I, J), with additional information about differences in attractiveness between pairs of alternatives. The present paper offers a theoretical framework for the study of the “level of constraint” of this kind of partial preferential information. It suggests a number of structures as potential models being less demanding than the classical one in which differences in utilities can be used to represent the comparison of differences in attractiveness. The models are characterized in the more general context of families of non-complete preference structures, according to two different perspectives (called “semantico-numerical” and “matrix”). Both perspectives open the door to further practical applications connected with elicitation of the preferences of a decision maker.     

A lexicographical compromise method for multiple criteria group decision problems with imprecise information

This paper addresses multiple criteria group decision making problems where each group member offers imprecise information on his/her preferences about the criteria. In particular we study the inclusion of this partial information in the decision problem when the individuals’ preferences do not provide a vector of common criteria weights and a compromise preference vector of weights has to be determined as part of the decision process in order to evaluate a finite set of alternatives. We present a method where the compromise is defined by the lexicographical minimization of the maximum disagreement between the value assigned to the alternatives by the group members and the evaluation induced by the compromise weights.     

When conflict induces the expression of incomplete preferences

Multicriteria conflict arises in pairwise comparisons, where each alternative outperforms the other one on some criterion, which imposes a trade-off. Comparing two alternatives can be difficult if their respective advantages are of high magnitude (the attribute spread is large). In this paper, we investigate to which extent conflict in a comparison situation can lead decision makers to express incomplete preferences, that is, to refuse to compare the two alternatives, or to be unable to compare them with confidence. We report on an experiment in which subjects expressed preferences on pairs of alternatives involving varying conflicts. Results show that depending on whether the participants are allowed to express incomplete preferences or not, attribute spread has a different effect: a large attribute spread increases the frequency of incomparability statements, when available, while it increases the use of indifference statements when only indifference and preference answers are permitted. These results lead us to derive some implications for preference elicitation methods involving comparison tasks.     

Fuzzy relations for the analysis of traders’ preferences in an information market game

In this paper we focus on preference and decision data gathered during a computer-supported information market game in which 35 students participated during seven consecutive trading sessions. The participants’ individual preferences on the market shares are collected to calculate a collective preference ranking using the Borda social choice method. Comparing this preference ranking to the shares’ actual market ranking resulting from the participants’ trading, we find a statistically significant difference between both rankings. As the preferences established by market behavior cannot be adequately explained through a social choice rule, we propose an alternative explanation based on the herd behavior phenomenon where traders imitate the most successful trader in the market. Using a decision analysis technique based on fuzzy relations, we study the participants’ rankings of the best share in the market during 7 weeks and compare the most successful trader to the other traders. The results from our analysis show that a substantial number of traders is indeed following the market leader.     

A least deviation method for priority derivation in group decision making with incomplete reciprocal preference relations

In this paper, based on the transfer relationship between reciprocal preference relation and multiplicative preference relation, we proposed a least deviation method (LDM) to obtain a priority vector for group decision making (GDM) problems where decision-makers' (DMs') assessments on alternatives are furnished as incomplete reciprocal preference relations with missing values. Relevant theorems are investigated and a convergent iterative algorithm about LDM is developed. Using three numerical examples, the LDM is compared with the other prioritization methods based on two performance evaluation criteria: maximum deviation and maximum absolute deviation. Statistical comparative study, complexity of computation of different algorithms, and comparative analyses are provided to show its advantages over existing approaches.     

Logarithmic least squares method to priority for group decision making with incomplete fuzzy preference relations

The aim of this paper is to present a logarithmic least squares method (LLSM) to priority for group decision making with incomplete fuzzy preference relations. We give a reasonable definition of multiplicative consistent for incomplete fuzzy preference relation. We develop the acceptable fuzzy consistency ratio (FCR for short), which is simple and similar to Saaty’s consistency ratio CR for multiplicative fuzzy preference relations. We also extend the LLSM method to the case of individual preference relation with complete information. Finally, some examples are illustrated to show that our method is simple, efficient, and can be performed on computer easily.     

Scenario-based portfolio selection of investment projects with incomplete probability and utility information

In the selection of investment projects, it is important to account for exogenous uncertainties (such as macroeconomic developments) which may impact the performance of projects. These uncertainties can be addressed by examining how the projects perform across several scenarios; but it may be difficult to assign well-founded probabilities to such scenarios, or to characterize the decision makers’ risk preferences through a uniquely defined utility function. Motivated by these considerations, we develop a portfolio selection framework which (i) uses set inclusion to capture incomplete information about scenario probabilities and utility functions, (ii) identifies all the non-dominated project portfolios in view of this information, and (iii) offers decision support for rejection and selection of projects. The proposed framework enables interactive decision support processes where the implications of additional probability and utility information or further risk constraints are shown in terms of corresponding decision recommendations.     

The impacts of uncertainties in a real options model under incomplete information

This paper examines the impact with respect to the uncertainty of the underlying state variable, profit uncertainty, on the real options model in a situation of incomplete information. Profit uncertainty has not incorporated into the real options model under incomplete information, in that the underlying state variable is not formulated as the stochastic process (see, e.g., Bernardo, A. E., Chowdhry, E. B., 2002. Resources, real options, and corporate strategy. Journal of Financial Economics, 63, 211–234). We extend the model developed by Bernardo and Chowdhry to formulate the underlying state variable as the stochastic process. We conclude that profit uncertainty has the same type of impact on the real options value and its triggers, both under complete and incomplete information.     

On the stability of evolutionary dynamics in games with incomplete information

In an interaction it is possible that one agent has features it is aware of but the opponent is not. These features (e.g. cost, valuation or fighting ability) are referred to as the agent’s type. The paper compares two models of evolution in symmetric situations of this kind. In one model the type of an agent is fixed and evolution works on strategies of types. In the other model every agent adopts with fixed probabilities both types, and type-contingent strategies are exposed to evolution. It is shown that the dynamic stability properties of equilibria may differ even when there are only two types and two strategies. However, in this case the dynamic stability properties are generically the same when the payoff of a player does not depend directly on the type of the opponent. Examples illustrating these results are provided.     

A new method for multiple criteria group decision making with incomplete weight information under linguistic environment

A new method is proposed to solve multiple criteria group decision making (MCGDM) problems, in which both the criteria values and criteria weights take the form of linguistic information, and the information about linguistic criteria weights is partly known or completely unknown. Firstly, to get reasonable decision result, instead of assigning the same weight to the decision maker (DM) for all criteria, we propose a method to determine the weight of DM with respect to each criterion under linguistic environment by calculating the similarity degree between individual 2-tuple linguistic evaluation value and the mean given by all decision makers (DMs). Secondly, for the situations where the information about the criteria weights is partly known or completely unknown, we establish optimization models to determine the criteria weights by defining 2-tuple linguistic positive ideal solution (TL-PIS), 2-tuple linguistic right negative ideal solution (TL-RNIS) and 2-tuple linguistic left negative ideal solution (TL-LNIS) of the collective 2-tuple linguistic decision matrix. Thirdly, we propose a new method to solve MCGDM problems with partly known or completely unknown linguistic weight information. Finally, an illustrative example is given to demonstrate the calculation process of the proposed method.     

Evaluation of firm’s loss due to incomplete information in real investment decision

We investigate the effect of incomplete information in a model where a start-up with a unique idea and technology pioneers a new market but will eventually be expelled from the market by a large firm’s subsequent entry. We evaluate the start-up’s loss due to incomplete information about the large firm’s behavior. We clarify conditions under which the start-up needs more information about the large firm. The proposed method of evaluating the loss due to incomplete information could also be applied to other real options models involving incomplete information.     

The best choice problem for a union of two linear orders with common maximum

We find optimal stopping times for the secretary problem considered on partially ordered sets that are unions of two independent finite linear orders that have a common best element. We also determine the optimal probability of success, i.e. choosing the best element, and the asymptotic value of this probability and a certain threshold behavior of the optimal stopping times when the number of elements in our set tends to infinity.     

Computing the value of information of quadratic decision problems and its non-negativity conditions

Abstract

There are many examples in the literature of non-cooperative games in which players prefer not to have additional information in order to improve their payoff. We present a general quadratic game in which, if one of the players improves his payoff upon obtaining more information, the other player’s payoff worsens in such a way that there is a net social loss due to having more information. How can we ensure this does not occur? The results of this paper are (1) the mathematical expression of the (social) value of information in a quadratic non-cooperative game, and (2) the conditions that ensure the social value of information is non-negative.     

The minmax regret gradual covering location problem on a network with incomplete information of demand weights

The gradual covering location problem seeks to establish facilities on a network so as to maximize the total demand covered, allowing partial coverage. We focus on the gradual covering location problem when the demand weights associated with nodes of the network are random variables whose probability distributions are unknown. Using only information on the range of these random variables, this study is aimed at finding the “minmax regret” location that minimizes the worst-case coverage loss. We show that under some conditions, the problem is equivalent to known location problems (e.g. the minmax regret median problem). Polynomial time algorithms are developed for the problem on a general network with linear coverage decay functions.     

The hierarchical and social decision making procedure for bi-objective optimization problems by using the simple majority decision rule

Multi-objective optimization has been successfully applied to problems of industrial design, problems of quality control and production management, and problems of finance. The theme of these applications is how to choose the best solution for the decision makers out of a set of non-inferior solutions to a multi-objective optimization problem. For this purpose, an optimization model with hierarchical structure, whose lower problem is a multi-objective optimization problem and the upper problem is a preference optimization problem on a set of non-inferior solutions, must be constructed. This kind of hierarchical problems have been previously analyzed only with regard to linear programming problems by Benson[6]. In this paper, an algorithm is derived that provides a solution as a social choice, obtained by aggregating plural decision-makers' preferences. In the case of the simple majority rule, the bi-objective problem is transformed into an -parameter choice problem, and the golden section method is applied. The availability of the approach is demonstrated with the means of an illustrative example.Technische Universität BerlinFaculty of Science and Technology, Keio University     

Updating attribute reduction in incomplete decision systems with the variation of attribute set

In rough set theory, attribute reduction is a challenging problem in the applications in which data with numbers of attributes available. Moreover, due to dynamic characteristics of data collection in decision systems, attribute reduction will change dynamically as attribute set in decision systems varies over time. How to carry out updating attribute reduction by utilizing previous information is an important task that can help to improve the efficiency of knowledge discovery. In view of that attribute reduction algorithms in incomplete decision systems with the variation of attribute set have not yet been discussed so far. This paper focuses on positive region-based attribute reduction algorithm to solve the attribute reduction problem efficiently in the incomplete decision systems with dynamically varying attribute set. We first introduce an incremental manner to calculate the new positive region and tolerance classes. Consequently, based on the calculated positive region and tolerance classes, the corresponding attribute reduction algorithms on how to compute new attribute reduct are put forward respectively when an attribute set is added into and deleted from the incomplete decision systems. Finally, numerical experiments conducted on different data sets from UCI validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed algorithms in incomplete decision systems with the variation of attribute set.     

A method based on PSO and granular computing of linguistic information to solve group decision making problems defined in heterogeneous contexts

Group decision making is a type of decision problem in which multiple experts acting collectively, analyze problems, evaluate alternatives, and select a solution from a collection of alternatives. As the natural language is the standard representation of those concepts that humans use for communication, it seems natural that they use words (linguistic terms) instead of numerical values to provide their opinions. However, while linguistic information is readily available, it is not operational and thus it has to be made usable though expressing it in terms of information granules. To do so, Granular Computing, which has emerged as a unified and coherent framework of designing, processing, and interpretation of information granules, can be used. The aim of this paper is to present an information granulation of the linguistic information used in group decision making problems defined in heterogeneous contexts, i.e., where the experts have associated importance degrees reflecting their ability to handle the problem. The granulation of the linguistic terms is formulated as an optimization problem, solved by using the particle swarm optimization, in which a performance index is maximized by a suitable mapping of the linguistic terms on information granules formalized as sets. This performance index is expressed as a weighted aggregation of the individual consistency achieved by each expert.     

CONSISTENCY OF MLE OF THE PARAMETER OF EXPONENTIAL LIFETIME DISTRIBUTION FOR RANDOM CENSORING MODEL WITH INCOMPLETE INFORMATION

In this paper, we have discussed a random censoring test with incomplete information, and proved that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameter based on the randomly censored data with incomplete information in the case of the exponential distribution has the strong consistency.     

Extension of the LINMAP for multiattribute decision making under Atanassov’s intuitionistic fuzzy environment

The aim of this article is further extending the linear programming techniques for multidimensional analysis of preference (LINMAP) to develop a new methodology for solving multiattribute decision making (MADM) problems under Atanassov’s intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) environments. The LINMAP only can deal with MADM problems in crisp environments. However, fuzziness is inherent in decision data and decision making processes. In this methodology, Atanassov’s IF sets are used to describe fuzziness in decision information and decision making processes by means of an Atanassov’s IF decision matrix. A Euclidean distance is proposed to measure the difference between Atanassov’s IF sets. Consistency and inconsistency indices are defined on the basis of preferences between alternatives given by the decision maker. Each alternative is assessed on the basis of its distance to an Atanassov’s IF positive ideal solution (IFPIS) which is unknown a prior. The Atanassov’s IFPIS and the weights of attributes are then estimated using a new linear programming model based upon the consistency and inconsistency indices defined. Finally, the distance of each alternative to the Atanassov’s IFPIS can be calculated to determine the ranking order of all alternatives. A numerical example is examined to demonstrate the implementation process of this methodology. Also it has been proved that the methodology proposed in this article can deal with MADM problems under not only Atanassov’s IF environments but also both fuzzy and crisp environments.