我国居民储蓄函数模型的建立与分析

本文通过建立和分析储蓄函数,对1952年—2001年的我国居民储蓄进行了实证研究,力求在大样本、计量经济建模的完整性两个方面体现出新意,并且探讨了几个易被忽视的问题的实用解决方法。本文研究表明,我国居民的储蓄行为在不同的历史阶段有明显的区别,随着社会经济的发展储蓄行为的无规律性会越来越严重,收入以外的其他影响储蓄的因素主要存在一年和二年的滞后作用。     

我国居民储蓄对收入的敏感性分析

我国的居民储蓄始终高居不下,国内市场疲软,有效需求不足,这是制约整个国民经济可持续发展的一个重要症结。本文采用实证研究和理论分析相结合的方法,通过建立回归模型,进行协整分析,发现正是由于储蓄对收入强敏感性的存在,在很大程度上引发了居民的高储蓄倾向,进而探讨了其内在的原因。     

储蓄——收入模型的转变点分析

本文利用线性回归模型分析改革开放以来我国居民储蓄与收入的关系 ,并引入转变点理论研究二者关系发生结构性转变的问题 ,最后讨论了影响储蓄增长的几个因素 .实证研究表明 ,90年代以来 ,随着经济环境的巨大变化 ,居民储蓄与收入的关系有所改变 ,储蓄的增长速度已经超过了收入的增长速度 .我们的研究还表明 ,当用时间跨度较大的样本时 ,结论虽符合长期趋势 ,但考虑到其可信度及从时效性角度看对近期宏观政策的现实指导意义 ,常规的回归分析应该加入转变点检验 ,以防忽略系统结构性转变 .     

我国居民储蓄的影响因素分析

本文对2001年2月-2008年2月期间我国居民储蓄存款的变化及其影响因素进行了分析。首先应用线性回归模型分析各个影响因素的显著性和模型的合理性,然后通过建立函数系数回归模型细致的刻画了影响储蓄的各个因素与储蓄额之间随着时间变化的动态关系。最后针对每个影响因素提出相应的政策建议。     

我国居民资产配置行为的随机模拟研究

近两年来,证券市场高涨下的居民资产配置行为备受关注。本文以最优资产选择模型为基础,讨论了2005年7月至2007年5月利率、风险偏好、沪深股市相关性、股市收益波动与居民资产选择的数量关系,采用Monte-Carlo与Bootstrap等方法模拟牛市时期各因素对资产配置行为的影响。研究发现:牛市时期以储蓄存款为主的单一型金融资产结构格局并未改变;从收益率的角度,股市对储蓄的影响比利率大;从风险的角度,利率对储蓄的影响比股市大;利率、沪深股市的之间的相关性大小对居民储蓄投资的影响不容忽视。     

习惯形成对居民消费、储蓄影响的理论分析

我国居民消费倾向偏低和储蓄的超常增长成为近年来一个被普遍关注的问题.本文构造了一个基于习惯形成的效用函数,消费者的偏好不仅依赖于当前的消费,还依赖于消费者过去的消费水平,运用含有消费习惯形成的效用函数对当前我国居民的消费倾向偏低及储蓄率居高不下现象给出数学解释.     

居民消费的计量经济模型实证分析

本文在凯恩斯的绝对收入假说的基础上，分析影响居民消费的其他原因，以及这些因素与消费的相关程度，建立计量经济学模型，并采用中国城镇居民的收入消费等统计资料，对消费函数进行实证分析。文中提出用线性二次指数平滑法估算居民对通货膨胀的预期，并指出不应将居民储蓄视为消费的单一方程计量经济学模型中的解释变量，进而有针对性地提出调节总需求的应对策略。     

基于Dynan模型的农村居民预防性储蓄动机研究——以河南为例

居民未来收入和支出的不确定性是导致近年来居民消费低迷、储蓄过多的重要原因。本文运用Dynan预防性储蓄模型对河南省农村居民的预防性储蓄动机进行实证分析,结果表明河南省农村居民存在较强的预防性储蓄动机。在此基础上,对河南省农村居民预防性储蓄动机产生的原因进行了深入分析,并提出了相应的对策建议。     

绿色核算视角下的最终消费锁定及其破解

本文将中国经济高增长与消费低增长现象概括为最终消费的锁定,借助广义资本核算方法及教育预防性储蓄视角,提炼最终消费锁定现象的两项基本假说,即核算锁定论和基本需求主导论。在改进后的长期均衡计量模型指导下,以协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解法对中国1970至2010年相关数据进行分析验证并给出锁定原因及解锁途径:刺激消费总量,提升消费结构,有赖于提高绿色收入占比,监控消费支出泡沫化走势。     

健康投资、储蓄与死亡风险

随着经济的发展和生活水平的提高,慢性病日益成为消费者健康危机的主要来源,作为应对,消费者一方面通过储蓄以备不时之需,另一方面通过健康投资进行预防,因此,如果将储蓄和健康投资引入消费者效用函数,构建一个基于世代交叠的消费者决策模型,则可以讨论健康投资、储蓄以及其他消费如何影响寿命预期的内在机制.通过对模型的均衡分析,结果发现随着收入的递增,为了达到更长的寿命预期,人们一般倾向于进行储蓄和健康投资,且健康投资的增速要快于储蓄,而一般性消费则在逐步递减,从而为预防性储蓄之谜的解释提供了新的视角.     

A REPRESENTATION FORMULA RELATED TO SCHR(O)DINGER OPERATORS

Schr(o)dinger operator is a central subject in the mathematical study of quantum mechanics.Consider the Schrodinger operator H = -△ V on R, where △ = d2/dx2 and the potential function V is real valued. In Fourier analysis, it is well-known that a square integrable function admits an expansion with exponentials as eigenfunctions of -△. A natural conjecture is that an L2 function admits a similar expansion in terms of "eigenfunctions" of H, a perturbation of the Laplacian (see [7], Ch. Ⅺ and the notes), under certain condition on V.     

Qualitative Analysis of Bifurcating Solutions in the Lengyel-Epstein Model

One of the most fundamental problems in theoretical biology is to explain the mechanisms by which patterns and forms are created in the＇living world. In his seminal paper ＂The Chemical Basis of Morphogenesis＂, Turing showed that a system of coupled reaction-diffusion equations can be used to describe patterns and forms in biological systems. However, the first experimental evidence to the Turing patterns was observed by De Kepper and her associates（1990） on the CIMA reaction in an open unstirred reactor, almost 40 years after Turing＇s prediction. Lengyel and Epstein characterized this famous experiment using a system of reaction-diffusion equations. The Lengyel-Epstein model is in the form as follows     

On a class of self-similar processes with stationary increments in higher order Wiener chaoses

We study a class of self-similar processes with stationary increments belonging to higher order Wiener chaoses which are similar to Hermite processes. We obtain an almost sure wavelet-like expansion of these processes. This allows us to compute the pointwise and local Hölder regularity of sample paths and to analyse their behaviour at infinity. We also provide some results on the Hausdorff dimension of the range and graphs of multidimensional anisotropic self-similar processes with stationary increments defined by multiple Wiener–Itô integrals.     

(0,1 ;0)-INTERPOLATION ON INFINITE INTERVAL (-∞, +∞)

In this paper, we study the explicit representation and convergence of (0, 1; 0)-interpolation on infinite interval, which means to determine a polynomial of degree ≤ 3n - 2 when the function values are prescribed at two set of points namely the zeros of Hn(x) and H′n(x) and the first derivatives at the zeros of H′n(x).     

On a class of Riemann surfaces

It is considered the class of Riemann surfaces with dimT1 = 0, where T1 is a subclass of exact harmonic forms which is one of the factors in the orthogonal decomposition of the spaceΩH of harmonic forms of the surface, namely The surfaces in the class OHD and the class of planar surfaces satisfy dimT1 = 0. A.Pfluger posed the question whether there might exist other surfaces outside those two classes. Here it is shown that in the case of finite genus g, we should look for a surface S with dimT1 = 0 among the surfaces of the form Sg\K , where Sg is a closed surface of genus g and K a compact set of positive harmonic measure with perfect components and very irregular boundary.     

CONTENTS OF VOLUME 30

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Instructions for contributions

正Applied Mathematics-A Journal of Chinese Universities,Series B(Appl.Math.J.Chinese Univ.,Ser.B)is a comprehensive applied mathematics journal jointly sponsored by Zhejiang University,China Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics,and Springer-Verlag.It is a quarterly journal with     

Journal of Mathematical Research with Applications Guide for Authors

正Journal overview:Journal of Mathematical Research with Applications(JMRA),formerly Journal of Mathematical Research and Exposition(JMRE)created in 1981,one of the transactions of China Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics,is a home for original research papers of the highest quality in all areas of mathematics with applications.The target audience comprises:pure and applied mathematicians,graduate students in broad fields of sciences and technology,scientists and engineers interested in mathematics.     

Staircase transportation problems with superadditive rewards and cumulative capacities

A cumulative-capacitated transportation problem is studied. The supply nodes and demand nodes are each chains. Shipments from a supply node to a demand node are possible only if the pair lies in a sublattice, or equivalently, in a staircase disjoint union of rectangles, of the product of the two chains. There are (lattice) superadditive upper bounds on the cumulative flows in all leading subrectangles of each rectangle. It is shown that there is a greatest cumulative flow formed by the natural generalization of the South-West Corner Rule that respects cumulative-flow capacities; it has maximum reward when the rewards are (lattice) superadditive; it is integer if the supplies, demands and capacities are integer; and it can be calculated myopically in linear time. The result is specialized to earlier work of Hoeffding (1940), Fréchet (1951), Lorentz (1953), Hoffman (1963) and Barnes and Hoffman (1985). Applications are given to extreme constrained bivariate distributions, optimal distribution with limited one-way product substitution and, generalizing results of Derman and Klein (1958), optimal sales with age-dependent rewards and capacities.To our friend, Philip Wolfe, with admiration and affection, on the occasion of his 65th birthday.Research was supported respectively by the IBM T.J. Watson and IBM Almaden Research Centers and is a minor revision of the IBM Research Report [6].