Likelihood estimation of soft-core interaction potentials for Gibbsian point patterns

The likelihood method is developed for the analysis of socalled regular point patterns. Approximating the normalizing factor of Gibbs canonical distribution, we simultaneously estimate two parameters, one for the scale and the other which measures the softness (or hardness), of repulsive interactions between points. The approximations are useful up to a considerably high density. Some real data are analyzed to illustrate the utility of the parameters for characterizing the regular point pattern.     

Estimation variances for estimators of product densities and pair correlation functions of planar point processes

Approximations of the estimation variances of kernel estimators of the pair correlation function and the product density of a planar Poisson process are given. Furthermore, a heuristic approximation of the estimation variance of an estimator of the pair correlation function of a general planar point process is suggested. All formulae have been tested by simulation experiments.     

Mean characteristics of Gibbsian point processes

This paper deals with the derivation of an exact expression of mean characteristics of planar global Gibbsian point processes having pair potential functions. The method is analogous to that of the Mayer expansion of grand partition functions, i.e., the reciprocal of the normalizing constant of Gibbsian distribution (well-known in statistical physics). The explicit infinite series expansion of a logarithm of a class of mean quantities with respect to the activity parameter z is derived and the expression of its coefficients is given. The validity of this expansion for a range of z is also shown. Examples of mean characteristics to which this expansion can be applied are given. Finally, a simple numerical example is given in order to show the usage of this expansion as a numerical approximant of mean characteristics.     

Third order asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators for Gaussian ARMA processes

In this paper we investigate various third-order asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators for Gaussian ARMA processes by the third-order Edgeworth expansions of the sampling distributions. We define a third-order asymptotic efficiency by the highest probability concentration around the true value with respect to the third-order Edgeworth expansion. Then we show that the maximum likelihood estimator is not always third-order asymptotically efficient in the class A₃ of third-order asymptotically median unbiased estimators. But, if we confine our discussions to an appropriate class D (⊂ A₃) of estimators, we can show that appropriately modified maximum likelihood estimator is always third-order asymptotically efficient in D.     

Existence of Gibbsian point processes with geometry-dependent interactions

We establish the existence of stationary Gibbsian point processes for interactions that act on hyperedges between the points. For example, such interactions can depend on Delaunay edges or triangles, cliques of Voronoi cells or clusters of k-nearest neighbors. The classical case of pair interactions is also included. The basic tools are an entropy bound and stationarity.     

On the consistency of conditional maximum likelihood estimators

Let {P _, : , H} be a family of probability measures admitting a sufficient statistic for the nuisance parameter . The paper presents conditions for consistency of (asymptotic) conditional maximum likelihood estimators for . An application to the Rasch-model (a stochastic model for psychological tests) yields a condition on the sequence of nuisance parameters which is sufficient for strong consistency of conditional maximum likelihood estimators, and necessary for the existence of any weakly consistent estimator-sequence.     

Minimum divergence estimators,maximum likelihood and exponential families

The dual representation formula of the divergence between two distributions in a parametric model is presented. Resulting estimators do not make use of any grouping or smoothing. For smooth divergences they all coincide with the MLE on any regular exponential family.     

On a fundamental optimality of the maximum likelihood estimator

It is well-known that the rate of exponential convergence for any consistent estimator is less than or equal to the Bahadur bound. In this paper we have proven, for the one-dimensional case, that the rate of exponential convergence for the maximum likelihood estimator (m.l.e.) attains the Bahadur bound if and only if the underlying distribution is a member of the exponential family of distributions.     

Asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators from dependent observations

This paper provides a proof, based on the inverse function theorem, for the existence and uniqueness of a consistent solution of maximum likelihood equations.     

Nonparametric maximum likelihood density estimation and simulation-based minimum distance estimators

Indirect inference estimators (i.e., simulation-based minimum distance estimators) in a parametric model that are based on auxiliary nonparametric maximum likelihood density estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal. If the parametricmodel is correctly specified, it is furthermore shown that the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix equals the inverse of the Fisher-information matrix. These results are based on uniform-in-parameters convergence rates and a uniform-inparameters Donsker-type theorem for nonparametric maximum likelihood density estimators.     

A matrix formula for the skewness of maximum likelihood estimators

We give a general matrix formula for computing the second-order skewness of maximum likelihood estimators. The formula was firstly presented in a tensorial version by Bowman and Shenton (1998). Our matrix formulation has numerical advantages, since it requires only simple operations on matrices and vectors. We apply the second-order skewness formula to a normal model with a generalized parametrization and to an ARMA model.     

Sharp rates of convergence of maximum likelihood estimators in nonparametric models

Summary Sharp rates of convergence of maximum likelihood estimators are established in models which are defined by probability densities having bounded derivatives. This result is achieved by making use of local properties of the empirical distribution function.     

Local Whittle likelihood estimators and tests for non-Gaussian stationary processes

In this paper, we propose a local Whittle likelihood estimator for spectral densities of non-Gaussian processes and a local Whittle likelihood ratio test statistic for the problem of testing whether the spectral density of a non-Gaussian stationary process belongs to a parametric family or not. Introducing a local Whittle likelihood of a spectral density f _θ (λ) around λ, we propose a local estimator [^(q)] = [^(q)] (l){\hat{\theta } = \hat{\theta } (\lambda ) } of θ which maximizes the local Whittle likelihood around λ, and use f_{[^(q)] (l)} (l){f_{\hat{\theta } (\lambda )} (\lambda )} as an estimator of the true spectral density. For the testing problem, we use a local Whittle likelihood ratio test statistic based on the local Whittle likelihood estimator. The asymptotics of these statistics are elucidated. It is shown that their asymptotic distributions do not depend on non-Gaussianity of the processes. Because our models include nonlinear stationary time series models, we can apply the results to stationary GARCH processes. Advantage of the proposed estimator is demonstrated by a few simulated numerical examples.     

Higher order asymptotic theory for normalizing transformations of maximum likelihood estimators

Suppose thatX _n =(X ₁,...X _n) is a collection ofm-dimensional random vectorsX _i forming a stochastic process with a parameter . Let be the MLE of . We assume that a transformationA( ) of has thek-thorder Edgeworth expansion (k=2,3). IfA extinguishes the terms in the Edgeworth expansion up tok-th-order (k2), then we say thatA is thek-th-order normalizing transformation. In this paper, we elucidate thek-th-order asymptotics of the normalizing transformations. Some conditions forA to be thek-th-order normalizing transformation will be given. Our results are very general, and can be applied to the i.i.d. case, multivariate analysis and time series analysis. Finally, we also study thek-th-order asymptotics of a modified signed log likelihood ratio in terms of the Edgeworth approximation.Research supported by the Office of Naval Research Contract N00014-91-J-1020.     

Asymptotic behavior of maximum likelihood estimators in a branching diffusion model

In this paper the consistency and asymptotic normality of maximum-likelihood estimations for a super-critical branching diffusion model are obtained under certain conditions on its drift, variance and reproduction law. We proceeded by first studying the limit behavior of the Fisher information measure and related processes, and then verifying conditions established in Barndorff-Nielsen and Sørensen (Int stat Rev 62:133–165, 1994). This in turn uses the Martingale Law of Large Numbers as well as the Martingale Central Limit Theorem.     

The maximum full and partial likelihood estimators in the proportional hazard model

Summary The maximum full likelihood estimator in the proportional hazard model is explored in relation to the maximum partial likelihood estimator. In the scalar parameter case both the estimators have a common sign, and the absolute value of the former is strictly greater than that of the latter except for trivial cases. We point out also that the maximum full likelihood estimator after a simple modification of the likelihood equation provides a good approximation to the maximum partial likelihood estimator. Similar results are valid for the likelihood ratio tests. The Institute of Statistical Mathematics     

Optimizing in the class of Fuller modified limited information maximum likelihood estimators

A general class of Fuller modified maximum likelihood estimators are considered. It is shown that this class possesses finite moments. Asymptotic bias and asymptotic mean squared error are derived using small-σ expansions. A simulation study is carried out to compare different estimators in this class with standard estimators.     

Asymptotic properties of particle filter-based maximum likelihood estimators for state space models

We study the asymptotic performance of approximate maximum likelihood estimators for state space models obtained via sequential Monte Carlo methods. The state space of the latent Markov chain and the parameter space are assumed to be compact. The approximate estimates are computed by, firstly, running possibly dependent particle filters on a fixed grid in the parameter space, yielding a pointwise approximation of the log-likelihood function. Secondly, extensions of this approximation to the whole parameter space are formed by means of piecewise constant functions or B-spline interpolation, and approximate maximum likelihood estimates are obtained through maximization of the resulting functions. In this setting we formulate criteria for how to increase the number of particles and the resolution of the grid in order to produce estimates that are consistent and asymptotically normal.