A portfolio of purchase contracts--an example of solving large-scale dynamic programming on parallel computers

The curse of dimensionality means that, though many stochasticsequential decision problems can be modelled as dynamic-programmingproblems, their memory requirements and large solution timesmake them impracticable to solve on most serial computers. Thispaper looks at an example of such a problem—the optimalportfolio of purchase contracts—whichwas solved usinga parallel computer and a LAN of workstations. It concentrateson two questions related to the solution of this problem.     

A dynamic model of supplier switching

While a broad branch of literature deals with the development of buyer–supplier relationships, limited research exists under which circumstances a buyer should terminate such a relationship and switch to a new supplier. Recently, Wagner and Friedl (2007) have developed a framework to analyze a static one-shot supplier switching decision when the buyer has asymmetric information about the supplier’s production costs. We extend their basic framework to a dynamic one, assuming that the supplier learns the production costs over time when he sets up the production process. Since the supplier’s cost information at the individual stages crucially determines the setup and the switching decision, it becomes essential for supply chain management to provide proper incentives so that the supplier reveals his cost information truthfully over time. We characterize the optimal setup and switching strategy as well as the optimal supply chain contract. We also compare our findings with those of the static setting to provide further insights.     

A multiattractor model for the dynamic control of companies

The dynamic behaviour of complex human organisations in dynamic environments results from the interplay of multiple agents. In the particular case of a commercial or industrial companies, the agents are for example the shareholders, the customers/consumers, the subcontractors/competitors, the workers/employees etc. The role of the managers is to find and to maintain the adequate balance of resources between various management levels to respond to the conflicting interests of these agents without endangering the viability of the company. A distinction is made between operational, strategic and normative levels. Kolm's triangle is introduced as a convenient representation for making visible the relative strength of the three management levels. In the triangle a stability polygon representing a viability zone is identified and monitored by observing the company's indicators. Failure paths are followed whenever the current representative point in Kolm's triangle shifts towards the boundaries of the stability polygon. Herewith a diagnostic tool is provided to the managers in charge to design control policies preventing such adverse evolution.     

A dynamic competition model of regime change

A dynamic competition model for an oppressive government opposed by rebels is proposed, based on coupled differential equations with constant coefficients. Depending on their values, the model allows scenarios representing a stable, oppressive government and violent regime change. With constant coefficients, there can be no limit cycles. However, cycles emerge if rebels and governments switch characteristics after a revolution, if resources change hands and rebel motivations switch from grievance to greed. This mechanism is proposed as an explanation for the establishment of a new repressive regime after the overthrow of a similar regime.     

A dynamic input-output model with renewable resources

The paper studies a generalisation of the dynamic Leontief input-output model. The standard dynamic Leontief model will be extended with the balance equation of renewable resources. The renewable stocks will increase regenerating and decrease exploiting primary natural resources. In this study the controllability of this extended model is examined by taking the consumption as the control parameter. Assuming balanced growth for both consumption and production, we investigate the exhaustion of renewable resources in dependence on the balanced growth rate and on the rate of natural regeneration. In doing so, classic results from control theory and on eigenvalue problems in linear algebra are applied.     

A two-compartment model interacting with dynamic drugs

By combining the total cell evolution curve and a two-compartment model interacting with dynamic anti-cancer agents, the evolution of subpopulations has been analytically obtained and investigated in this work.     

A capacity constrained single-facility dynamic lot-size model

A computationally efficient algorithm for a multi-period single commodity production planning problem with capacity constraints is developed. The model differs from earlier well-known studies involving concave cost functions in the introduction of production capacity constraints which need not be equal in every period. The objective is to find an optimal production schedule that minimizes the total production and inventory costs. Backlogging is not allowed. The structure of the optimal solution is characterized and then used in an efficient algorithm.     

A dynamic model and simulation of system generation

Translated from Issledovaniya po Prikladnoi Matematike, No. 5, pp. 18–24, 1976.     

A new dynamic programming algorithm for the single item capacitated dynamic lot size model

We develop a new dynamic programming method for the single item capacitated dynamic lot size model with non-negative demands and no backlogging. This approach builds the Optimal value function in piecewise linear segments. It works very well on the test problems, requiring less than 0.3 seconds to solve problems with 48 periods on a VAX 8600. Problems with the time horizon up to 768 periods are solved. Empirically, the computing effort increases only at a quadratic rate relative to the number of periods in the time horizon.This research was supported in part by NSF grants DDM-8814075 and DMC-8504786.     

A dynamic model for a study of diabetes

In this paper a dynamic model for diabetes prevalence in a country is analyzed. The goal of this study is to estimate the prevalence of diabetes in a hypothetical community. The model is formulated using a difference-algebraic equation and then singular system theory is used to obtain the solution.     

A model for speculation in a dynamic economy

The paper deals with speculation strategies in a dynamic economy, where “speculation” means participating in a market with the intention to gain a reward by first buying an item and thereafter selling it at a possibly higher price. By assuming that the states of the economy form a Markov chain the problem is modeled as a discrete time Markov decision process. The optimal strategies (which are pairs of stopping times) are identified. Under quite general conditions the optimal rule for the selling process turns out to be a control limit policy in both state of economy and time. Techniques for the computation of optimal strategies are presented; some numerical examples are also discussed. For a static economy closed-form solutions are given     

A dynamic model for road protection against flooding

This paper focuses on the problem of identifying optimal protection strategies to reduce the impact of flooding on a road network. We propose a dynamic mixed-integer programming model that extends the classic concept of road network protection by shifting away from single-arc fortifications to a more general and realistic approach involving protection plans that cover multiple components. We also consider multiple disruption scenarios of varying magnitude. To efficiently solve large problem instances, we introduce a customised GRASP heuristic. Finally, we provide some analysis and insights from a case study of the Hertfordshire road network in the East of England. Results show that optimal protection strategies mainly involve safeguarding against flooding events that are small and likely to occur, whereas implementing higher protection standards are not considered cost-effective.     

A novel dynamic model of pseudo random number generator

An interesting hierarchy of random number generators is introduced in this paper based on the review of random numbers characteristics and chaotic functions theory. The main objective of this paper is to produce an ergodic dynamical system which can be implemented in random number generators. In order to check the efficacy of pseudo random number generators based on this map, we have carried out certain statistical tests on a series of numbers obtained from the introduced hierarchy. The results of the tests were promising, as the hierarchy passed the tests satisfactorily, and offers a great capability to be employed in a pseudo random number generator.     

A discrete mathematical model of the dynamic evolution of a transportation network

A dynamic model of the evolution of a transportation network is proposed. The main feature of this model is that the evolution of the transportation network is not a process of centralized transportation optimization. Rather, its dynamic behavior is a result of the system self-organization that occurs in the course of the satisfaction of needs in goods transportation and the evolution of the infrastructure of the network nodes. Nonetheless, the possibility of soft control of the network evolution direction is taken into account.     

A dynamic model of the distribution of wealth among households and nations

Stiglitz once showed that, in general, aggregate wealth is asymptotically uniformally distributed among individuals. However, in his formulation household saving is not the outcome of utility maximization over time. Constructing a simple dynamic general equilibrium model in which household saving is choice-theoretically determined, we show that given initial holdings of wealth there is a unique and stable steady state distribution of wealth and that the distribution of wealth becomes more even (resp. uneven) as time goes by if the total wealth is initially greater (resp. smaller) than its steady state level. We also study the response of the steady state equilibrium to the changes in initial distribution of wealth and the rate of time preference, and to several types of technological improvements.     

A group analysis of the equations of the dynamic transversely isotropic elastic model

Group foliation of the system of equations of motion of a transversely isotropic elastic model of geomaterials, satisfying the Gassmann conditions, is carried out. A linear system of first-order differential equations is obtained, equivalent to the equations of this model. A number of theorems describing its properties are proved. A fundamental Lie transformation and an optimum system of its subgroups are obtained, which enable all the invariant, partially invariant and differentially invariant submodels of the dynamic model of a transversely isotropic elastic medium to be obtained. Some exact solutions are derived and their physical meaning is indicated.     

A dynamic subgrid-scale model for the large eddy simulation of stratified flow

A new dynamic subgrid-scale (SGS) model, including subgrid turbulent stress and heat flux models for stratified shear flow is proposed by using Yoshizawa’s eddy viscosity model as a base model. Based on our calculated results, the dynamic subgrid-scale model developed here is effective for the large eddy simulation (LES) of stratified turbulent channel flows. The new SGS model is then applied to the large eddy simulation of stratified turbulent channel flow under gravity to investigate the coupled shear and buoyancy effects on the near-wall turbulent statistics and the turbulent heat transfer at different Richardson numbers. The critical Richardson number predicted by the present calculation is in good agreement with the value of theoretical analysis     

Cost of ownership model for spare engines purchase for the Korean navy acquisition program

Major weapon system acquisition programmes often require high initial purchase cost which can be a burden for the procurement of a highly reliable system. In order to avoid the tendency of acquiring a less expensive weapon system with lower performance, a cost of ownership (COO) model can be applied to assess the lifetime cost of the weapon system. In many existing cost estimation models for weapon systems, the failure rate of the system is assumed to be constant and the functional relationship between the initial purchase cost and maintenance cost is not well defined. In this paper, we propose a revised COO model where random effects models are employed to accommodate the variations of the system failure frequency and repair time. It is expected that our model can contribute to the cost-effective procurement of spare engines for the Korean Navy acquisition programme within the limited national defence budget.