PLS regression: A directional signal-to-noise ratio approach

We present a new approach to univariate partial least squares regression (PLSR) based on directional signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs). We show how PLSR, unlike principal components regression, takes into account the actual value and not only the variance of the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator. We find an orthogonal sequence of directions associated with decreasing SNR. Then, we state partial least squares estimators as least squares estimators constrained to be null on the last directions. We also give another procedure that shows how PLSR rebuilds the OLS estimator iteratively by seeking at each step the direction with the largest difference of signals over the noise. The latter approach does not involve any arbitrary scale or orthogonality constraints.     

Bayesian shrinkage prediction for the regression problem

We consider Bayesian shrinkage predictions for the Normal regression problem under the frequentist Kullback-Leibler risk function.Firstly, we consider the multivariate Normal model with an unknown mean and a known covariance. While the unknown mean is fixed, the covariance of future samples can be different from that of training samples. We show that the Bayesian predictive distribution based on the uniform prior is dominated by that based on a class of priors if the prior distributions for the covariance and future covariance matrices are rotation invariant.Then, we consider a class of priors for the mean parameters depending on the future covariance matrix. With such a prior, we can construct a Bayesian predictive distribution dominating that based on the uniform prior.Lastly, applying this result to the prediction of response variables in the Normal linear regression model, we show that there exists a Bayesian predictive distribution dominating that based on the uniform prior. Minimaxity of these Bayesian predictions follows from these results.     

Bayesian modeling of several covariance matrices and some results on propriety of the posterior for linear regression with correlated and/or heterogeneous errors

We explore simultaneous modeling of several covariance matrices across groups using the spectral (eigenvalue) decomposition and modified Cholesky decomposition. We introduce several models for covariance matrices under different assumptions about the mean structure. We consider ‘dependence’ matrices, which tend to have many parameters, as constant across groups and/or parsimoniously modeled via a regression formulation. For ‘variances’, we consider both unrestricted across groups and more parsimoniously modeled via log-linear models. In all these models, we explore the propriety of the posterior when improper priors are used on the mean and ‘variance’ parameters (and in some cases, on components of the ‘dependence’ matrices). The models examined include several common Bayesian regression models, whose propriety has not been previously explored, as special cases. We propose a simple approach to weaken the assumption of constant dependence matrices in an automated fashion and describe how to compute Bayes factors to test the hypothesis of constant ‘dependence’ across groups. The models are applied to data from two longitudinal clinical studies.     

Exploring interactions in high-dimensional genomic data: an overview of Logic Regression, with applications

Logic Regression is an adaptive regression methodology mainly developed to explore high-order interactions in genomic data. Logic Regression is intended for situations where most of the covariates in the data to be analyzed are binary. The goal of Logic Regression is to find predictors that are Boolean (logical) combinations of the original predictors. In this article, we give an overview of the methodology and discuss some applications. We also describe the software for Logic Regression, which is available as an R and S-Plus package.     

James-Stein estimators for time series regression models

The least squares (LS) estimator seems the natural estimator of the coefficients of a Gaussian linear regression model. However, if the dimension of the vector of coefficients is greater than 2 and the residuals are independent and identically distributed, this conventional estimator is not admissible. James and Stein [Estimation with quadratic loss, Proceedings of the Fourth Berkely Symposium vol. 1, 1961, pp. 361-379] proposed a shrinkage estimator (James-Stein estimator) which improves the least squares estimator with respect to the mean squares error loss function. In this paper, we investigate the mean squares error of the James-Stein (JS) estimator for the regression coefficients when the residuals are generated from a Gaussian stationary process. Then, sufficient conditions for the JS to improve the LS are given. It is important to know the influence of the dependence on the JS. Also numerical studies illuminate some interesting features of the improvement. The results have potential applications to economics, engineering, and natural sciences.     

Quantile regression for longitudinal data

The penalized least squares interpretation of the classical random effects estimator suggests a possible way forward for quantile regression models with a large number of “fixed effects”. The introduction of a large number of individual fixed effects can significantly inflate the variability of estimates of other covariate effects. Regularization, or shrinkage of these individual effects toward a common value can help to modify this inflation effect. A general approach to estimating quantile regression models for longitudinal data is proposed employing ?₁ regularization methods. Sparse linear algebra and interior point methods for solving large linear programs are essential computational tools.     

An adjusted maximum likelihood method for solving small area estimation problems

For the well-known Fay-Herriot small area model, standard variance component estimation methods frequently produce zero estimates of the strictly positive model variance. As a consequence, an empirical best linear unbiased predictor of a small area mean, commonly used in small area estimation, could reduce to a simple regression estimator, which typically has an overshrinking problem. We propose an adjusted maximum likelihood estimator of the model variance that maximizes an adjusted likelihood defined as a product of the model variance and a standard likelihood (e.g., a profile or residual likelihood) function. The adjustment factor was suggested earlier by Carl Morris in the context of approximating a hierarchical Bayes solution where the hyperparameters, including the model variance, are assumed to follow a prior distribution. Interestingly, the proposed adjustment does not affect the mean squared error property of the model variance estimator or the corresponding empirical best linear unbiased predictors of the small area means in a higher order asymptotic sense. However, as demonstrated in our simulation study, the proposed adjustment has a considerable advantage in small sample inference, especially in estimating the shrinkage parameters and in constructing the parametric bootstrap prediction intervals of the small area means, which require the use of a strictly positive consistent model variance estimate.     

Efficiency of a Liu-type estimator in semiparametric regression models

In this paper we consider the semiparametric regression model, y=Xβ+f+ε. Recently, Hu [11] proposed ridge regression estimator in a semiparametric regression model. We introduce a Liu-type (combined ridge-Stein) estimator (LTE) in a semiparametric regression model. Firstly, Liu-type estimators of both β and f are attained without a restrained design matrix. Secondly, the LTE estimator of β is compared with the two-step estimator in terms of the mean square error. We describe the almost unbiased Liu-type estimator in semiparametric regression models. The almost unbiased Liu-type estimator is compared with the Liu-type estimator in terms of the mean squared error matrix. A numerical example is provided to show the performance of the estimators.     

Depth estimators and tests based on the likelihood principle with application to regression

We investigate depth notions for general models which are derived via the likelihood principle. We show that the so-called likelihood depth for regression in generalized linear models coincides with the regression depth of Rousseeuw and Hubert (J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 94 (1999) 388) if the dependent observations are appropriately transformed. For deriving tests, the likelihood depth is extended to simplicial likelihood depth. The simplicial likelihood depth is always a U-statistic which is in some cases not degenerated. Since the U-statistic is degenerated in the most cases, we demonstrate that nevertheless the asymptotic distribution of the simplicial likelihood depth and thus asymptotic α-level tests for general types of hypotheses can be derived. The tests are distribution-free. We work out the method for linear and quadratic regression.     

On directional multiple-output quantile regression

This paper sheds some new light on projection quantiles. Contrary to the sophisticated set analysis used in Kong and Mizera (2008) [13], we adopt a more parametric approach and study the subgradient conditions associated with these quantiles. In this setup, we introduce Lagrange multipliers which can be interpreted in various interesting ways, in particular in a portfolio optimization context. The corresponding projection quantile regions were already shown to coincide with the halfspace depth ones in Kong and Mizera (2008) [13], but we provide here an alternative proof (completely based on projection quantiles) that has the advantage of leading to an exact computation of halfspace depth regions from projection quantiles. Above all, we systematically consider the regression case, which was barely touched in Kong and Mizera (2008) [13]. We show in particular that the regression quantile regions introduced in Hallin, Paindaveine, and Šiman (2010) [6] and [7] can also be obtained from projection (regression) quantiles, which may lead to a faster computation of those regions in some particular cases.     

Sparse estimation in functional linear regression

As a useful tool in functional data analysis, the functional linear regression model has become increasingly common and been studied extensively in recent years. In this paper, we consider a sparse functional linear regression model which is generated by a finite number of basis functions in an expansion of the coefficient function. In this model, we do not specify how many and which basis functions enter the model, thus it is not like a typical parametric model where predictor variables are pre-specified. We study a general framework that gives various procedures which are successful in identifying the basis functions that enter the model, and also estimating the resulting regression coefficients in one-step. We adopt the idea of variable selection in the linear regression setting where one adds a weighted L₁ penalty to the traditional least squares criterion. We show that the procedures in our general framework are consistent in the sense of selecting the model correctly, and that they enjoy the oracle property, meaning that the resulting estimators of the coefficient function have asymptotically the same properties as the oracle estimator which uses knowledge of the underlying model. We investigate and compare several methods within our general framework, via a simulation study. Also, we apply the methods to the Canadian weather data.     

Theory and inference for regression models with missing responses and covariates

In this paper, we carry out an in-depth theoretical investigation for inference with missing response and covariate data for general regression models. We assume that the missing data are missing at random (MAR) or missing completely at random (MCAR) throughout. Previous theoretical investigations in the literature have focused only on missing covariates or missing responses, but not both. Here, we consider theoretical properties of the estimates under three different estimation settings: complete case (CC) analysis, a complete response (CR) analysis that involves an analysis of those subjects with only completely observed responses, and the all case (AC) analysis, which is an analysis based on all of the cases. Under each scenario, we derive general expressions for the likelihood and devise estimation schemes based on the EM algorithm. We carry out a theoretical investigation of the three estimation methods in the normal linear model and analytically characterize the loss of information for each method, as well as derive and compare the asymptotic variances for each method assuming the missing data are MAR or MCAR. In addition, a theoretical investigation of bias for the CC method is also carried out. A simulation study and real dataset are given to illustrate the methodology.     

Difference based ridge and Liu type estimators in semiparametric regression models

We consider a difference based ridge regression estimator and a Liu type estimator of the regression parameters in the partial linear semiparametric regression model, y=Xβ+f+ε. Both estimators are analyzed and compared in the sense of mean-squared error. We consider the case of independent errors with equal variance and give conditions under which the proposed estimators are superior to the unbiased difference based estimation technique. We extend the results to account for heteroscedasticity and autocovariance in the error terms. Finally, we illustrate the performance of these estimators with an application to the determinants of electricity consumption in Germany.     

PLSR模型的回归效果分析

本文简单地介绍了多元线性回归、主元回归、部分最小二乘回归模型 ,用实例对三种方法的回归性能进行比较 ,并指出在消除多重共线性、回归系数估计精度及预测精度等方面 ,部分最小二乘回归模型优于其它两种模型     

A family of estimators for multivariate kurtosis in a nonnormal linear regression model

In this paper, we propose a new estimator for a kurtosis in a multivariate nonnormal linear regression model. Usually, an estimator is constructed from an arithmetic mean of the second power of the squared sample Mahalanobis distances between observations and their estimated values. The estimator gives an underestimation and has a large bias, even if the sample size is not small. We replace this squared distance with a transformed squared norm of the Studentized residual using a monotonic increasing function. Our proposed estimator is defined by an arithmetic mean of the second power of these squared transformed squared norms with a correction term and a tuning parameter. The correction term adjusts our estimator to an unbiased estimator under normality, and the tuning parameter controls the sizes of the squared norms of the residuals. The family of our estimators includes estimators based on ordinary least squares and predicted residuals. We verify that the bias of our new estimator is smaller than usual by constructing numerical experiments.     

Successive direction extraction for estimating the central subspace in a multiple-index regression

In this paper we propose a dimension reduction method for estimating the directions in a multiple-index regression based on information extraction. This extends the recent work of Yin and Cook [X. Yin, R.D. Cook, Direction estimation in single-index regression, Biometrika 92 (2005) 371-384] who introduced the method and used it to estimate the direction in a single-index regression. While a formal extension seems conceptually straightforward, there is a fundamentally new aspect of our extension: We are able to show that, under the assumption of elliptical predictors, the estimation of multiple-index regressions can be decomposed into successive single-index estimation problems. This significantly reduces the computational complexity, because the nonparametric procedure involves only a one-dimensional search at each stage. In addition, we developed a permutation test to assist in estimating the dimension of a multiple-index regression.     

An overview on the shrinkage properties of partial least squares regression

The aim of this paper is twofold. In the first part, we recapitulate the main results regarding the shrinkage properties of partial least squares (PLS) regression. In particular, we give an alternative proof of the shape of the PLS shrinkage factors. It is well known that some of the factors are >1. We discuss in detail the effect of shrinkage factors for the mean squared error of linear estimators and argue that we cannot extend the results to PLS directly, as it is nonlinear. In the second part, we investigate the effect of shrinkage factors empirically. In particular, we point out that experiments on simulated and real world data show that bounding the absolute value of the PLS shrinkage factors by 1 seems to leads to a lower mean squared error.     

On efficient estimators of two seemingly unrelated regressions

In this paper, following the results presented in Liu’s work [Liu, A.Y., 2002. Efficient estimation of two seemingly unrelated regression equations. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 82, 445-456], we first represent the Gauss-Markov estimator of the regression parameter as a matrix series, and hence we conclude that the observation vectors should appear in any efficient estimator in pairs. Second, we prove that the simpler form of the two-stage Aitken estimator is unique. Finally we generalize our results to the system of two seemingly unrelated regressions with unequal numbers of observations and briefly summarize our conclusions.     

Estimates of MM type for the multivariate linear model

We propose a class of robust estimates for multivariate linear models. Based on the approach of MM-estimation (Yohai 1987, [24]), we estimate the regression coefficients and the covariance matrix of the errors simultaneously. These estimates have both a high breakdown point and high asymptotic efficiency under Gaussian errors. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality assuming errors with an elliptical distribution. We describe an iterative algorithm for the numerical calculation of these estimates. The advantages of the proposed estimates over their competitors are demonstrated through both simulated and real data.     

Extreme value theory for stochastic integrals of Legendre polynomials

We study in this paper the extremal behavior of stochastic integrals of Legendre polynomial transforms with respect to Brownian motion. As the main results, we obtain the exact tail behavior of the supremum of these integrals taken over intervals [0,h] with h>0 fixed, and the limiting distribution of the supremum on intervals [0,T] as T→∞. We show further how this limit distribution is connected to the asymptotic of the maximally selected quasi-likelihood procedure that is used to detect changes at an unknown time in polynomial regression models. In an application to global near-surface temperatures, we demonstrate that the limit results presented in this paper perform well for real data sets.