Two approximations of the present value distribution of a disability annuity

The distribution function of the present value of a cash flow can be approximated by means of a distribution function of a random variable, which is also the present value of a sequence of payments, but with a simpler structure. The corresponding random variable has the same expectation as the random variable corresponding to the original distribution function and is a stochastic upper bound of convex order. A sharper upper bound can be obtained if more information about the risk is available. In this paper, it will be shown that such an approach can be adopted for disability annuities (also known as income protection policies) in a three state model under Markov assumptions. Benefits are payable during any spell of disability whilst premiums are only due whenever the insured is healthy. The quality of the two approximations is investigated by comparing the distributions obtained with the one derived from the algorithm presented in the paper by Hesselager and Norberg [Insurance Math. Econom. 18 (1996) 35–42].     

Subset simulation for unconstrained global optimization

Global optimization problem is known to be challenging, for which it is difficult to have an algorithm that performs uniformly efficient for all problems. Stochastic optimization algorithms are suitable for these problems, which are inspired by natural phenomena, such as metal annealing, social behavior of animals, etc. In this paper, subset simulation, which is originally a reliability analysis method, is modified to solve unconstrained global optimization problems by introducing artificial probabilistic assumptions on design variables. The basic idea is to deal with the global optimization problems in the context of reliability analysis. By randomizing the design variables, the objective function maps the multi-dimensional design variable space into a one-dimensional random variable. Although the objective function itself may have many local optima, its cumulative distribution function has only one maximum at its tail, as it is a monotonic, non-decreasing, right-continuous function. It turns out that the searching process of optimal solution(s) of a global optimization problem is equivalent to exploring the process of the tail distribution in a reliability problem. The proposed algorithm is illustrated by two groups of benchmark test problems. The first group is carried out for parametric study and the second group focuses on the statistical performance.     

Upper bounds for the risk in the α — t utility function

Fishburn's α — t model is an important example of a utility function involving a target for a random variable. Simple upper bounds for the risk function in this model are proposed for cases in which the probability distribution is either unknown, or produces complicated or intractable statements of the model.     

基于两时段的WCVaR风险分析及其应用

针对随机变量的分布信息不完全的情况下,提出了两时段的Worst-Case Conditional Valueat-Risk(WCVaR)指标,并建立了两时段的风险-利润投资组合优化模型,该模型是一高维问题,具有复杂的优化结构.在损失函数为线性以及随机变量为离散界约束分布的假设下,运用最优化对偶理论将具有多层min-ma...     

On the discrete-time compound renewal risk model with dependence

In this paper, we study the discrete-time renewal risk model with dependence between the claim amount random variable and the interclaim time random variable. We consider several dependence structures between the claim amount random variable and the interclaim time random variable. Recursive formulas are derived for the probability mass function and the moments of the total claim amount over a fixed period of time. In the context of ruin theory, explicit expressions for the expected penalty (Gerber-Shiu) function are derived for special cases. We also discuss how the discrete-time compound renewal risk model with dependence can be used to approximate the corresponding continuous time compound renewal risk model with dependence. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate different topics discussed in the paper.     

The design of branch and bound algorithms for a class of nonlinear integer programs

This paper is concerned with computational experimentation leading to the design of effective branch and bound algorithms for an important class of nonlinear integer programming problems, namely linearly constrained problems, which are used to model several real-world situations. The main contribution here is a study of the effect of node and branching variable selection and storage reduction strategies on overall computational effort for this class of problems, as well as the generation of a set of adequate test problems. Several node and branching variable strategies are compared in the context of a pure breadth-first enumeration, as well as in a special breadth and depth enumeration combination approach presented herein. Also, the effect of using updated pseudocosts is briefly addressed. Computational experience is presented on a set of eighteen suitably-sized nonlinear test problems, as well as on some random linear integer programs. Some of the new rules proposed are demonstrated to be significantly superior to previously suggested strategies; interestingly, even for linear integer programming problems.     

The design of branch and bound algorithms for a class of nonlinear integer programs

This paper is concerned with computational experimentation leading to the design of effective branch and bound algorithms for an important class of nonlinear integer programming problems, namely linearly constrained problems, which are used to model several real-world situations. The main contribution here is a study of the effect of node and branching variable selection and storage reduction strategies on overall computational effort for this class of problems, as well as the generation of a set of adequate test problems. Several node and branching variable strategies are compared in the context of a pure breadth-first enumeration, as well as in a special breadth and depth enumeration combination approach presented herein. Also, the effect of using updated pseudocosts is briefly addressed. Computational experience is presented on a set of eighteen suitably-sized nonlinear test problems, as well as on some random linear integer programs. Some of the new rules proposed are demonstrated to be significantly superior to previously suggested strategies; interestingly, even for linear integer programming problems.     

On solutions to the equation for improving additives in regression problems

In this article, we consider the problem of finding a solution to a functional equation which in a special way depends on the distribution of a random variable. Such equations naturally arise in construction of consistent estimates in regression problems in the case when the variances of the main observations depend on underlying unknown parameter and the regression coefficients are determined with random errors. A simple example of a regression problem is demonstrated when the equation under consideration occurs.     

Robust reward–risk ratio optimization with application in allocation of generation asset

In this article, we study reward–risk ratio models under partially known message of random variables, which is called robust (worst-case) performance ratio problem. Based on the positive homogenous and concave/convex measures of reward and risk, respectively, the new robust ratio model is reduced equivalently to convex optimization problems with a min–max optimization framework. Under some specially partial distribution situation, the convex optimization problem is converted into simple framework involving the expectation reward measure and conditional value-at-risk measure. Compared with the existing reward–risk portfolio research, the proposed ratio model has two characteristics. First, the addressed problem combines with two different aspects. One is to consider an incomplete information case in real-life uncertainty. The other is to focus on the performance ratio optimization problem, which can realize the best balance between the reward and risk. Second, the complicated optimization model is transferred into a simple convex optimization problem by the optimal dual theorem. This indeed improves the usability of models. The generation asset allocation in power systems is presented to validate the new models.     

Some models for water distribution systems

In this paper the results of our investigation of methods and algorithms for operative and dynamical control of water distribution systems are presented. Our investigation was directed to the distribution system equipped with a variety of components—pipes, consumers, valves and the inner water store (a reservoir) as the most important one. The final model of the optimization problem containing all necessary restrictions is so complex that it is impossible to solve it without some special techniques. In the presented study we propose a multilevel approach based on the idea of aggregation of the pipelines network. In the paper the method of determination of aggregated model of the network is presented. The usefulness of this method in the optimization of water supply systems is examined. Based on an aggregated network model one determines optimal strategies for control of pumping stations. The optimization model consists of a linear objective function and quadratic constraints. A nonlinear mixed integer programming problem which is solved by modified branch and bound method is obtained.     

基于失效分析的独立均匀随机变量和的分布及应用初探

数学模型是基于材料失效分析提出来的,同时结合了BS模型的方法理论背景.材料样品在周期性应力作用下,主因裂纹的扩大量是一个随机变量.对于均匀材料,主因裂纹的扩大量可看作是均匀随机变量与一个大于零的实数的乘积,材料主因裂纹的总的扩大量可表示为这些独立均匀随机变量的和,或称为加权随机和.实际上,本文给出一类新的随机模型及其概率分布函数,并初步讨论了该模型分布的一些基本特征,通过数值模拟还讨论了其独特的分布特征,如与正态分布的关系与区别,以及该模型分布收敛于正态分布的速度等.这些工作可为材料失效分析提供新的模型与方法.     

Reverse logistics network design and planning utilizing conditional value at risk

Nowadays, due to some social, legal, and economical reasons, dealing with reverse supply chain is an unavoidable issue in many industries. Besides, regarding real-world volatile parameters, lead us to use stochastic optimization techniques. In location–allocation type of problems (such as the presented design and planning one), two-stage stochastic optimization techniques are the most appropriate and popular approaches. Nevertheless, traditional two-stage stochastic programming is risk neutral, which considers the expectation of random variables in its objective function. In this paper, a risk-averse two-stage stochastic programming approach is considered in order to design and planning a reverse supply chain network. We specify the conditional value at risk (CVaR) as a risk evaluator, which is a linear, convex, and mathematically well-behaved type of risk measure. We first consider return amounts and prices of second products as two stochastic parameters. Then, the optimum point is achieved in a two-stage stochastic structure regarding a mean-risk (mean-CVaR) objective function. Appropriate numerical examples are designed, and solved in order to compare the classical versus the proposed approach. We comprehensively discuss about the effectiveness of incorporating a risk measure in a two-stage stochastic model. The results prove the capabilities and acceptability of the developed risk-averse approach and the affects of risk parameters in the model behavior.     

Nonparametric estimation of compound distributions with applications in insurance

A nonparametric estimator of the distribution functionG of a random sum of independent identically distributed random variables, with distribution functionF, is proposed in the case where the distribution of the number of summands is known and a random sample fromF is available. This estimator is found by evaluating the functional that mapsF ontoG at the empirical distribution function based on the random sample. Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimator in a suitable function space are established using appropriate continuity and differentiability results for the functional. Bootstrap confidence bands are also obtained. Applications to the aggregate claims distribution function and to the probability of ruin in the Poisson risk model are presented.     

Input-output dynamic model for optimal environmental pollution control

This paper describes the allocation of a wastewater treatment fund within a region based on a dynamic input-output model. Considering the complexity of the input-output process, many indeterminate factors must be included in the model. For example, with the aging of machines, an unexpected loss will be caused by the retention of raw materials during an operation; this can be realistically considered as a random variable, because of the sufficiently large amount of historical data. By contrast, actions such as a temporary transfer or inexperienced operators can only be regard as uncertain variables, because of a lack of historical data. First, the pollution control model is formulated in an uncertain environment by including both human uncertainty and objective randomness. Second, an optimal control model subject to an uncertain random singular system is established; this model can be transformed into an equivalent optimization problem. To solve such a problem, recurrence equations are presented based on Bellman’s principle, and these were successfully applied to address the optimal control problem in two special cases. Moreover, two algorithms are formulated for solving the pollution control problem. Finally, the optimal distribution strategies of the pollution control fund used to control the emissions of COD and NH₃-H, which are two indicators of wastewater in China, were obtained through the proposed algorithms.     

Optimal dividend and capital injection problem with a random time horizon and a ruin penalty in the dual model

In the dual risk model, we consider the optimal dividend and capital injection problem, which involves a random time horizon and a ruin penalty. Both fixed and proportional costs from the transactions of capital injection are considered. The objective is to maximize the total value of the expected discounted dividends, and the penalized discounted both capital injections and ruin penalty during the horizon, which is described by the minimum of the time of ruin and an exponential random variable. The explicit solutions for optimal strategy and value function are obtained, when the income jumps follow a hyper-exponential distribution.Besides, some numerical examples are presented to illustrate our results.     

Survival probability and ruin probability of a risk model

In this paper, a new risk model is studied in which the rate of premium income is regarded as a random variable, the arrival of insurance policies is a Poisson process and the process of claim occurring is p-thinning process. The integral representations of the survival probability are gotten. The explicit formula of the survival probability on the infinite interval is obtained in the special casc cxponential distribution.The Lundberg inequality and the common formula of the ruin probability are gotten in terms of some techniques from martingale theory.     

Composite Nonsmooth Optimization Using Approximate Generalized Gradient Vectors

A new approximation method is presented for directly minimizing a composite nonsmooth function that is locally Lipschitzian. This method approximates only the generalized gradient vector, enabling us to use directly well-developed smooth optimization algorithms for solving composite nonsmooth optimization problems. This generalized gradient vector is approximated on each design variable coordinate by using only the active components of the subgradient vectors; then, its usability is validated numerically by the Pareto optimum concept. In order to show the performance of the proposed method, we solve four academic composite nonsmooth optimization problems and two dynamic response optimization problems with multicriteria. Specifically, the optimization results of the two dynamic response optimization problems are compared with those obtained by three typical multicriteria optimization strategies such as the weighting method, distance method, and min–max method, which introduces an artificial design variable in order to replace the max-value cost function with additional inequality constraints. The comparisons show that the proposed approximation method gives more accurate and efficient results than the other methods.     

An efficient third-moment saddlepoint approximation for probabilistic uncertainty analysis and reliability evaluation of structures

This paper presents an efficient third-moment saddlepoint approximation approach for probabilistic uncertainty analysis and reliability evaluation of random structures. By constructing a concise cumulant generating function (CGF) for the state variable according to its first three statistical moments, approximate probability density function and cumulative distribution function of the state variable, which may possess any types of distribution, are obtained analytically by using saddlepoint approximation technique. A convenient generalized procedure for structural reliability analysis is then presented. In the procedure, the simplicity of general moment matching method and the accuracy of saddlepoint approximation technique are integrated effectively. The main difference of the presented method from existing moment methods is that the presented method may provide more detailed information about the distribution of the state variable. The main difference of the presented method from existing saddlepoint approximation techniques is that it does not strictly require the existence of the CGFs of input random variables. With the advantages, the presented method is more convenient and can be used for reliability evaluation of uncertain structures where the concrete probability distributions of input random variables are known or unknown. It is illustrated and examined by five representative examples that the presented method is effective and feasible.     

随机模糊的等比例-最小方差投资组合优化研究

Markowitz的均值-方差模型在投资组合优化中得到了广泛的运用和拓展,其中多数拓展模型仅局限于对随机投资组合或模糊投资组合的研究,而忽略了实际问题同时包含了随机信息和模糊信息两个方面。本文首先定义随机模糊变量的方差用以度量投资组合的风险,提出具有阀值约束的最小方差随机模糊投资组合模型,基于随机模糊理论,将该模型转化为具有线性等式和不等式约束的凸二次规划问题。为了提高上述模型的有效性,本文以投资者期望效用最大化为压缩目标对投资组合权重进行压缩,构建等比例-最小方差混合的随机模糊投资组合模型,并求解该模型的最优解。最后,运用滚动实际数据的方法,比较上述两个模型的夏普比率以验证其有效性。     

The variable projection algorithm in time-resolved spectroscopy,microscopy and mass spectrometry applications

Nonlinear least squares optimization problems in which the parameters can be partitioned into two sets such that optimal estimates of parameters in one set are easy to solve for given fixed values of the parameters in the other set are common in practice. Particularly ubiquitous are data fitting problems in which the model function is a linear combination of nonlinear functions, which may be addressed with the variable projection algorithm due to Golub and Pereyra. In this paper we review variable projection, with special emphasis on its application to matrix data. The generalization of the algorithm to separable problems in which the linear coefficients of the nonlinear functions are subject to constraints is also discussed. Variable projection has been instrumental for model-based data analysis in multi-way spectroscopy, time-resolved microscopy and gas or liquid chromatography mass spectrometry, and we give an overview of applications in these domains, illustrated by brief case studies.