Higher-order expansions of distributions of maxima in a Hüsler-Reiss model

The max-stable Hüsler-Reiss distribution which arises as the limit distribution of maxima of bivariate Gaussian triangular arrays has been shown to be useful in various extreme value models. For such triangular arrays, this paper establishes higher-order asymptotic expansions of the joint distribution of maxima under refined Hüsler-Reiss conditions. In particular, the rate of convergence of normalized maxima to the Hüsler-Reiss distribution is explicitly calculated. Our findings are supported by the results of a numerical analysis.     

Detecting a conditional extreme value model

In classical extreme value theory probabilities of extreme events are estimated assuming all the components of a random vector to be in a domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution. In contrast, the conditional extreme value model assumes a domain of attraction condition on a sub-collection of the components of a multivariate random vector. This model has been studied in Heffernan and Tawn (JRSS B 66(3):497–546, 2004), Heffernan and Resnick (Ann Appl Probab 17(2):537–571, 2007), and Das and Resnick (2009). In this paper we propose three statistics which act as tools to detect this model in a bivariate set-up. In addition, the proposed statistics also help to distinguish between two forms of the limit measure that is obtained in the model.     

Bivariate CDF iterations and asymptotic independence

Asymptotic independence under weak convergence of sequences of bivariate random vectors is studied via the behavior of a certain class of bivariate cdf iterands that includes the extreme value iterand and a certain maximin iterand.     

Extreme value copula estimation based on block maxima of a multivariate stationary time series

The core of the classical block maxima method consists of fitting an extreme value distribution to a sample of maxima over blocks extracted from an underlying series. In asymptotic theory, it is usually postulated that the block maxima are an independent random sample of an extreme value distribution. In practice however, block sizes are finite, so that the extreme value postulate will only hold approximately. A more accurate asymptotic framework is that of a triangular array of block maxima, the block size depending on the size of the underlying sample in such a way that both the block size and the number of blocks within that sample tend to infinity. The copula of the vector of componentwise maxima in a block is assumed to converge to a limit, which, under mild conditions, is then necessarily an extreme value copula. Under this setting and for absolutely regular stationary sequences, the empirical copula of the sample of vectors of block maxima is shown to be a consistent and asymptotically normal estimator for the limiting extreme value copula. Moreover, the empirical copula serves as a basis for rank-based, nonparametric estimation of the Pickands dependence function of the extreme value copula. The results are illustrated by theoretical examples and a Monte Carlo simulation study.     

Limiting distributions of maxima under triangular schemes

A well-known result in extreme value theory indicates that componentwise taken sample maxima of random vectors are asymptotically independent under weak conditions. However, in important cases this independence is attained at a very slow rate so that the residual dependence structure plays a significant role.In the present article, we deduce limiting distributions of maxima under triangular schemes of random vectors. The residual dependence is expressed by a technical condition imposed on the spectral expansion of the underlying distribution.     

Large deviations of bivariate Gaussian extrema

We establish sharp tail asymptotics for componentwise extreme values of bivariate Gaussian random vectors with arbitrary correlation between the components. We consider two scaling regimes for the tail event in which we demonstrate the existence of a restricted large deviations principle and identify the unique rate function associated with these asymptotics. Our results identify when the maxima of both coordinates are typically attained by two different versus the same index, and how this depends on the correlation between the coordinates of the bivariate Gaussian random vectors. Our results complement a growing body of work on the extremes of Gaussian processes. The results are also relevant for steady-state performance and simulation analysis of networks of infinite server queues.

     

Extreme behavior of multivariate phase-type distributions

This paper investigates the limiting distributions of the componentwise maxima and minima of suitably normalized iid multivariate phase-type random vectors. In the case of maxima, a large parametric class of multivariate extreme value (MEV) distributions is obtained. The flexibility of this new class is exemplified in the bivariate setup. For minima, it is shown that the dependence structure of the Marshall-Olkin class arises in the limit.     

Asymptotic efficiency of the two-stage estimation method for copula-based models

For multivariate copula-based models for which maximum likelihood is computationally difficult, a two-stage estimation procedure has been proposed previously; the first stage involves maximum likelihood from univariate margins, and the second stage involves maximum likelihood of the dependence parameters with the univariate parameters held fixed from the first stage. Using the theory of inference functions, a partitioned matrix in a form amenable to analysis is obtained for the asymptotic covariance matrix of the two-stage estimator. The asymptotic relative efficiency of the two-stage estimation procedure compared with maximum likelihood estimation is studied. Analysis of the limiting cases of the independence copula and Fréchet upper bound help to determine common patterns in the efficiency as the dependence in the model increases. For the Fréchet upper bound, the two-stage estimation procedure can sometimes be equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation for the univariate parameters. Numerical results are shown for some models, including multivariate ordinal probit and bivariate extreme value distributions, to indicate the typical level of asymptotic efficiency for discrete and continuous data.     

Bivariate Density Estimation with an Application to Survival Analysis

Abstract

A procedure for estimating a bivariate density based on data that may be censored is described. After the data are transformed to the unit square, the bivariate density is estimated using linear splines and their tensor products. The combined procedure yields an estimate of the bivariate density on the original scale, which may provide insight about the dependence structure. The procedure can also be used to estimate densities that are known to be symmetric and to test for independence.     

A multivariate nonparametric test of independence

A new nonparametric approach to the problem of testing the joint independence of two or more random vectors in arbitrary dimension is developed based on a measure of association determined by interpoint distances. The population independence coefficient takes values between 0 and 1, and equals zero if and only if the vectors are independent. We show that the corresponding statistic has a finite limit distribution if and only if the two random vectors are independent; thus we have a consistent test for independence. The coefficient is an increasing function of the absolute value of product moment correlation in the bivariate normal case, and coincides with the absolute value of correlation in the Bernoulli case. A simple modification of the statistic is affine invariant. The independence coefficient and the proposed statistic both have a natural extension to testing the independence of several random vectors. Empirical performance of the test is illustrated via a comparative Monte Carlo study.     

Asymptotics of joint maxima for discontinuous random variables

This paper explores the joint extreme-value behavior of discontinuous random variables. It is shown that as in the continuous case, the latter is characterized by the weak limit of the normalized componentwise maxima and the convergence of any compatible copula. Illustrations are provided and an extension to the case of triangular arrays is considered which sheds new light on recent work of Coles and Pauli (Stat Probab Lett 54:373–379, 2001) and Mitov and Nadarajah (Extremes 8:357–370, 2005). This leads to considerations on the meaning of the bivariate upper tail dependence coefficient of Joe (Comput Stat Data Anal 16:279–297, 1993) in the discontinuous case.     

Statistical post-processing of forecasts for extremes using bivariate brown-resnick processes with an application to wind gusts

To improve the forecasts of weather extremes, we propose a joint spatial model for the observations and the forecasts, based on a bivariate Brown-Resnick process. As the class of stationary bivariate Brown-Resnick processes is fully characterized by the class of pseudo cross-variograms, we contribute to the theorical understanding of pseudo cross-variograms refining the knowledge of the asymptotic behaviour of all their components and introducing a parsimonious, but flexible parametric model. Both findings are of interest in classical geostatistics on their own. The proposed model is applied to real observation and forecast data for extreme wind gusts at 119 stations in Northern Germany.     

A Monte Carlo evaluation of three methods to detect local dependence in binary data latent class models

Binary data latent class analysis is a form of model-based clustering applied in a wide range of fields. A central assumption of this model is that of conditional independence of responses given latent class membership, often referred to as the “local independence” assumption. The results of latent class analysis may be severely biased when this crucial assumption is violated; investigating the degree to which bivariate relationships between observed variables fit this hypothesis therefore provides vital information. This article evaluates three methods of doing so. The first is the commonly applied method of referring the so-called “bivariate residuals” to a Chi-square distribution. We also introduce two alternative methods that are novel to the investigation of local dependence in latent class analysis: bootstrapping the bivariate residuals, and the asymptotic score test or “modification index”. Our Monte Carlo simulation indicates that the latter two methods perform adequately, while the first method does not perform as intended.     

Local efficiency of a Cramér-von Mises test of independence

Deheuvels proposed a rank test of independence based on a Cramér-von Mises functional of the empirical copula process. Using a general result on the asymptotic distribution of this process under sequences of contiguous alternatives, the local power curve of Deheuvels’ test is computed in the bivariate case and compared to that of competing procedures based on linear rank statistics. The Gil-Pelaez inversion formula is used to make additional comparisons in terms of a natural extension of Pitman's measure of asymptotic relative efficiency.     

A test for independence of two multivariate samples

The paper presents a new nonparametric test for independence of two vectors. The idea is based on zonotope approach by G. Koshevoy, H. Oja and others, see [4, 5]. Under the independence hypothesis the test statistic converges in distribution to the supremum of a certain Gaussian field, and its asymptotic distribution is found using the theory of extrema of random Gaussian fields developed by V. Piterbarg and Yu. Tyurin, see [6, 8]. In contrast to traditional correlation coefficients the formula is not symmetric.      

The asymptotic distribution of the maxima of a Gaussian random field on a lattice

Under mild conditions on the covariance function of a stationary Gaussian process, the maxima behaves asymptotically the same as the maxima of independent, identically distributed Gaussian random variables. In order to achieve extremal clustering, Hsing et al. (Ann Appl Probab 6:671–686, 1996) considered a triangular array of Gaussian sequences in which the correlation between “neighboring” observations approaches 1 at a certain rate. Using analogues of the conditions of Hsing et al., which allows for strong local dependence among variables but asymptotic independence, it is possible to show that two-dimensional Gaussian random fields also exhibit extremal clustering in the limit. A closed form expression for the extremal index governing the clustering will be provided. The results apply to Gaussian random fields in which the spatial domain is rescaled.     

Testing for symmetry and independence in a bivariate exponential distribution

Several bivariate exponential distributions have been proposed in the literature. A common problem for independent exponentials is to test the quality of the two distributions. The analogous problem for bivariate exponentials is to test for symmetry. For the bivariate exponential model of Freund (1961, Journal of the American Statistical Association 56, 971–977), tests of symmetry and independence are derived and the small sample distributions of the test statistics are found. The power function of the tests are calculated. The efficiency of the tests is found to be high on both an asymptotic and small sample basis.     

Nonparametric tests of independence between random vectors

A nonparametric test of the mutual independence between many numerical random vectors is proposed. This test is based on a characterization of mutual independence defined from probabilities of half-spaces in a combinatorial formula of Möbius. As such, it is a natural generalization of tests of independence between univariate random variables using the empirical distribution function. If the number of vectors is p and there are n observations, the test is defined from a collection of processes R_n,A, where A is a subset of {1,…,p} of cardinality |A|>1, which are asymptotically independent and Gaussian. Without the assumption that each vector is one-dimensional with a continuous cumulative distribution function, any test of independence cannot be distribution free. The critical values of the proposed test are thus computed with the bootstrap which is shown to be consistent. Another similar test, with the same asymptotic properties, for the serial independence of a multivariate stationary sequence is also proposed. The proposed test works when some or all of the marginal distributions are singular with respect to Lebesgue measure. Moreover, in singular cases described in Section 4, the test inherits useful invariance properties from the general affine invariance property.     

Nonparametric estimation of the spectral measure,and associated dependence measures,for multivariate extreme values using a limiting conditional representation

The traditional approach to multivariate extreme values has been through the multivariate extreme value distribution G, characterised by its spectral measure H and associated Pickands’ dependence function A. More generally, for all asymptotically dependent variables, H determines the probability of all multivariate extreme events. When the variables are asymptotically dependent and under the assumption of unit Fréchet margins, several methods exist for the estimation of G, H and A which use variables with radial component exceeding some high threshold. For each of these characteristics, we propose new asymptotically consistent nonparametric estimators which arise from Heffernan and Tawn’s approach to multivariate extremes that conditions on variables with marginal values exceeding some high marginal threshold. The proposed estimators improve on existing estimators in three ways. First, under asymptotic dependence, they give self-consistent estimators of G, H and A; existing estimators are not self-consistent. Second, these existing estimators focus on the bivariate case, whereas our estimators extend easily to describe dependence in the multivariate case. Finally, for asymptotically independent cases, our estimators can model the level of asymptotic independence; whereas existing estimators for the spectral measure treat the variables as either being independent, or asymptotically dependent. For asymptotically dependent bivariate random variables, the new estimators are found to compare favourably with existing estimators, particularly for weak dependence. The method is illustrated with an application to finance data.     

Multivariate nonparametric tests for independence

Multivariate generalizations of Bhuchongkul's bivariate rank statistics [Ann. Math. Statist.35 (1964)] have been introduced and studied in this paper for the purpose of testing mulitvariate independence. It is shown that the test statistics can be expressed as rank statistics which are easy to compute, have asymptotic normal distributions, and can detect mutual dependence in alternatives which are pairwise independent. The tests are compared to the Puri-Sen-Gokhale [[8]] tests and a normal theory test [ [1]] using Pitman efficiency.