Distributed preference relations for multiple attribute decision analysis

In this paper, we propose a new pairwise comparison approach called distributed preference relation (DPR) to simultaneously signify preferred, non-preferred, indifferent, and uncertain degrees of one alternative over another on a set of grades, which is more versatile for elicitation of preference information from a decision maker than multiplicative preference relation, fuzzy preference relation (FPR) and intuitionistic FPR. In a DPR matrix on a set of alternatives, each element is a distribution recording the preferred, non-preferred, indifferent, and uncertain degrees of one alternative over another using a set of grades. To facilitate the comparison of alternatives, we define a score matrix based on a DPR matrix using the given score values of the grades. Its additive consistency is constructed, analysed, and compared with the additive consistency of FPRs between alternatives. A method for comparing two interval numbers is then employed to create a possibility matrix from the score matrix, which can generate a ranking order of alternatives with possibility degrees. A problem of evaluating strategic emerging industries is investigated using the approach to demonstrate the application of a DPR matrix to modelling and analysing a multiple attribute decision analysis problem.     

A multiple criteria ranking method based on game cross-evaluation approach

The application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) as an alternative multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) tool has been gaining more attentions in the literatures. Doyle (Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 62(1):87?C100, 1995) presents a method of multi-attribute choice based on an application of DEA. In the first part of his method, the straightforward DEA is considered as an idealized process of self-evaluation in which each alternative weighs the attributes in order to maximize its own score (or desirability) relative to the other alternatives. Then, in the second step, each alternative applies its own DEA-derived best weights to each of the other alternatives (i.e., cross-evaluation), then the average of the cross-evaluations that get placed on an alternative is taken as an index of its overall score. In some cases of multiple criteria decision making, direct or indirect competitions exist among the alternatives, while the factor of competition is usually ignored in most of MCDM settings. This paper proposes an approach to evaluate and rank alternatives in MCDM via an extension of DEA method, namely DEA game cross-efficiency model in Liang, Wu, Cook and Zhu (Oper. Res. 56(5):1278?C1288, 2008b), in which each alternative is viewed as a player who seeks to maximize its own score (or desirability), under the condition that the cross-evaluation scores of each of other alternatives does not deteriorate. The game cross-evaluation score is obtained when the alternative??s own maximized scores are averaged. The obtained game cross-evaluation scores are unique and constitute a Nash equilibrium point. Therefore, the results and rankings based upon game cross-evaluation score analysis are more reliable and will benefit the decision makers.     

Diagnostic checking for conditional heteroscedasticity models

We suggest the score type tests for goodness-of-fit of conditional heteroscedasticity models in both univariate and multivariate time series. The tests can detect the alternatives converging to the null at a parametric rate. Weight functions are involved in the construction of the tests, which provides us with the flexibility to choose scores, especially under directional alternatives, for enhancing power performance. Furthermore, when the alternatives are not directional, we construct asymptotically distribution-free maximin tests for a large class of alternatives. A possibility to construct score-based omnibus tests is discussed when the alternative is saturated. The power performance is also investigated. A simulation study is carried out and a real data is analyzed.     

Using the analytic hierarchy process in a dynamic environment

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a decision analysis technique that uses judgements from a group of relevant decision makers along with hierarchical decomposition to derive a set of ratioscaled measures for decision alternatives. This paper addresses implementation issues for the AHP when the alternatives become available to the decision maker sequentially rather than simultaneously. Uncertainty about the value of future alternatives and the number of alternatives is included. We present a technique similar to the classic “secretary problem” of operations research and describe some sample results of using this technique. The procedure involves prioritizing criteria of possible alternatives before the alternatives became available, scoring the alternatives and then comparing the score of an alternative with an easily computed (through a dynamic programming recursion) critical value.     

基于相对熵的区间Pythagorean模糊多属性AQM决策方法及其应用

针对决策信息为区间Pythagorean模糊数,属性权重不完全确定的多属性决策问题,提出了一种基于相对熵的AQM决策方法。首先,提出区间Pythagorean模糊数的相对熵,计算了各方案与区间Pythagorean模糊正理想方案和负理想方案间的相对熵,据此构建了基于方案相对满意度最大的非线性规划属性权重确定模型;其次,针对每个属性,利用新的区间Pythagorean模糊数得分函数计算方案的0-1优先关系矩阵,依据AQM方法对所有0-1优先关系矩阵进行融合得到合成0-1优先关系矩阵,并确定了方案的综合度,由此获得方案的排序。最后,以软件开发项目的选取为实例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

Decision making,new information,ranking and structure

The rank of a set of alternatives can change if a new criterion is introduced into the set of criteria, but it can also change if the importances of the criteria depend on the number of alternatives and on the strength of their ranking. As a result a new alternative may change the relative order of the previous set. This is allowed to happen by making paired comparisons of alternatives with respect to criteria. It is particularly useful in a complex structure where the importances of the criteria are not well established. If on the other hand they are, then the alternatives can be scored with respect to intensities of the criteria and a new alternative would not change the relative rank of the old ones. Copies and near copies of alternatives can be treated by applying the same weight to them or by comparing them with the others respectively. Near copies are identified by a % variation measure.     

考虑决策者心理行为的直觉语言多属性决策方法

针对应用直觉语言集来表达决策信息的语言多属性决策问题,在考虑决策者有限理性的心理行为基础上,提出一种决策方法。该方法通过比较每个属性下方案之间的得分函数和精确函数, 构建方案的收益-损失分析矩阵。在考虑决策者参照依赖和损失规避心理行为基础上,计算每个方案相对于其它方案在每个属性下的收益-损失值优先度;在此基础上,计算备选方案的综合优先度, 并根据其大小对方案进行排序择优。最后通过一个算例验证所提出方法的有效性和合理性。     

Range convexity,continuity, and strategy-proofness of voting schemes

A voting scheme assigns to each profile of alternatives reported byn individuals a compromise alternative. A voting scheme is strategy-proof if no individual is better off by lying, i.e., not reporting a best alternative. In this paper the main results concern the case where the set of alternatives is the Euclidean plane and the preferences are Euclidean. It is shown that for strategy-proof voting schemes continuity is equivalent to convexity of the range of the voting scheme. Using a result by Kim and Roush (1984), this leads to characterizations of surjective or unanimous, anonymous, strategy-proof voting schemes.Furthermore, the paper contains an extensive discussion of related results in the area.     

Models of social contagion

This paper argues that social choice from among more than two feasible alternatives should not be based on social choice from two‐alternative subsets. It considers in some detail the case where one alternative ties or beats every other alternative on the basis of simple majorities, and raises the question of whether such an alternative should be chosen. A condition of ‘stochastic unanimity’, introduced in this context, is shown to be incompatible with the simple majority rule when it can apply. This new condition plus a consideration of ties leads into a brief discussion of the use of individual expected utility in social choice theory.     

Classifying efficient alternatives in SMAA using cross confidence factors

Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a family of methods for aiding multicriteria group decision making. These methods are based on exploring the weight space in order to describe the preferences that make each alternative the most preferred one. The main results of the analysis are rank acceptability indices, central weight vectors and confidence factors for different alternatives. The rank acceptability indices describe the variety of different preferences resulting in a certain rank for an alternative; the central weight vectors represent the typical preferences favouring each alternative; and the confidence factors measure whether the criteria data are sufficiently accurate for making an informed decision.In some cases, when the problem involves a large number of efficient alternatives, the analysis may fail to discriminate between them. This situation is revealed by low confidence factors. In this paper we develop cross confidence factors, which are based on computing confidence factors for alternatives using each other’s central weight vectors. The cross confidence factors can be used for classifying efficient alternatives into sets of similar and competing alternatives. These sets are related to the concept of reference sets in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), but generalized for stochastic models. Forming these sets is useful when trying to identify one or more most preferred alternatives, or suitable compromise alternatives. The reference sets can also be used for evaluating whether criteria need to be measured more accurately, and at which alternatives the measurements should be focused. This may cause considerable savings in measurement costs. We demonstrate the use of the cross confidence factors and reference sets using a real-life example.     

Consensus reaching in committees

In this paper, we apply a consensus model to decision-making in committees that have to choose one or more alternatives from a set of alternatives. The model does not use a voting rule nor a set of winning coalitions. Every decision maker evaluates each alternative with respect to given criteria. The criteria may be of unequal importance to a decision maker. Decision makers may be advised by a chairman to adjust their preferences, i.e., to change their evaluation of some alternative(s) or/and the importance of the criteria, in order to obtain a better consensus. The consensus result should satisfy constraints concerning the consensus degree and the majority degree. A simple example is presented.     

Dominance,potential optimality and alternative ranking in imprecise multi-attribute decision making

In this paper, we introduce a methodology based on an additive multiattribute utility function that does not call for precise estimations of the inputs, such as utilities, attribute weights and performances of decision alternatives. The information about such inputs is assumed to be in the form of ranges, which constitute model constraints and give rise to nonlinear programming problems. This has significant drawbacks for outputting the sets of non-dominated and potentially optimal alternatives for such problems, and we, therefore, propose their transformation into equivalent linear programming problems. The set of non-dominated and potentially optimal alternatives is a non-ranked set and can be very large, which makes the choice of the most preferred alternative very difficult. The above problem is solved by proposing several methods for alternative ranking. An application to the disposal of surplus weapons-grade plutonium is considered, showing the advantages of this approach.     

Number of alternatives and efficiency in different types of top-management decisions

What are the causes of the efficiency of complex strategic decisions? To answer this question, the impact of information searching, alternative designing, and complexity of a decision problem on its decision quality are analyzed in a longitudinal study of 83 top-management decisions, made the by executive board of a medium-sized firm (1380 employees). Decision quality is negatively influenced by the complexity of the decision problem. Alternative designing has a strong positive impact on decision quality. Information search shows no significant relationship to decision quality. The results indicate that designing of alternatives is an important instrument to counter the challenges of complex strategic decision-problems. However, one should not simply maximize the number of alternatives. There seems to be a very small optimal number beyond which decision quality will decrease. Besides, alternative designing has to be coordinated with other problem-solving activities, namely goal formation, process organization, and information searching.     

A hybrid approach integrating Affinity Diagram, AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS for sustainable city logistics planning

City logistics initiatives are steps taken by municipal administrations to ameliorate the condition of goods transport in cities and reduce their negative impacts on city residents and their environment. Examples of city logistics initiatives are urban distribution centers, congestion pricing, delivery timing and access restrictions. In this paper, we present a hybrid approach based on Affinity Diagram, AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS for evaluating city logistics initiatives. Four initiatives namely vehicle sizing restrictions, congestion charging schemes, urban distribution center and access timing restrictions are considered.The proposed approach consists of four steps. The first step involves identification of criteria for assessing performance of city logistics initiatives using Affinity Diagram. The results are four categories of criteria namely technical, social, economical and environmental. In step 2, a decision making committee comprising of representatives of city logistics stakeholders is formed. These stakeholders are shippers, receivers, transport operators, end consumers and public administrators. The committee members weight the selected criteria using AHP. In step 3, the decision makers provide linguistic ratings to the alternatives (city logistics initiatives) to assess their performance against the selected criteria. These linguistic ratings are then aggregated using fuzzy TOPSIS to generate an overall performance score for each alternative. The alternative with the highest score is finally chosen as most suitable city logistics initiative for improving city sustainability. In the fourth step, we perform sensitivity analysis to evaluate the influence of criteria weights on the selection of the best alternative.The proposed approach is novel and can be practically applied for selecting sustainable city logistics initiatives for cities. Another advantage is its ability to generate solutions under limited quantitative information. An empirical application of the proposed approach is provided.     

The range of the efficient frontier in multiple objective linear programming

Because a rational decision maker should only select an efficient alternative in multiple criterion decision problems, the efficient frontier defined as the set of all efficient alternatives has become a central solution concept in multiple objective linear programming. Normally this set reduces the set of available alternatives of the underlying problem. There are several methods, mainly based on the simplex method, for computing the efficient frontier. This paper presents a quite different approach which uses a nonlinear parametric program, solved by Wolfe's algorithm, to determine the range of the efficient frontier.     

Pruning of decision alternatives in multiple criteria decision making,based on the Uta method for estimating utilities

A new interactive method for the progressive elimination of elements from a finite set of decision alternatives is proposed. A sequence of alternatives is presented to the decision maker, who places each new alternative presented in rank order relative to the earlier alternatives evaluated. This ranking of elements in a subset of the decision space is used to eliminate other alternatives from further consideration. The approach is broadly based on the UTA method for utility assessment. The emphasis is not, however, on assessing a utility function as such; instead the class of utility functions is used to eliminate elements of the decision space, when the optimality of such elements is inconsistent with the presumed properties of the utility function and the rank orderings given. In this way, the decision maker need only evaluate a relatively small subset of the decision space, before all remaining alternatives are eliminated. The new procedure is illustrated by two numerical examples.     

An Interactive Approach for Choosing the Best of a Set of Alternatives

In this paper we address the problem of choosing the most preferred alternative among a large number of alternatives where each alternative is defined by multiple criteria. We assume that the decision maker has a quasiconcave utility function. We develop an exact approach that combines the ideas that have appeared in the literature regarding the use of different types of dummy alternatives in conjunction with real alternatives. Our experimental results indicate that the new approach is comparable to leading existing approaches.     

Black the libertarian

The most serious challenge to Frankfurt-type counterexamples to the Principle of Alternate Possibilities (PAP) comes in the form of a dilemma: either the counterexample presupposes determinism, in which case it begs the question; or it does not presuppose determinism, in which case it fails to deliver on its promise to eliminate all alternatives that might plausibly be thought to satisfy PAP. I respond to this challenge with a counterexample in whichconsidering an alternative course of action is anecessary condition fordeciding to act otherwise, and the agent does not in fact consider the alternative. I call this a “buffer case,” because the morally relevant alternative is “buffered” by the requirement that the agent first consider the alternative. Suppose further that the agent’s considering an alternative action—entering the buffer zone—is what would trigger the counterfactual intervener. Then it would appear that PAP-relevant alternatives are out of reach. I defend this counterexample to PAP against three objections: that considering an alternative isitself a morally relevant alternative; that buffer cases can be shown to containother alternatives that arguably satisfy PAP; and that even if the agent’spresent access to PAP-relevant alternatives were eliminated, PAP could still be satisfied in virtue ofearlier alternatives. I conclude that alternative possibilities are a normal symptom, but not an essential constituent, of moral agency.     

A visual interactive approach for multiple criteria decision making with monotone utility functions

We consider the problem of choosing the best of a set of alternatives where each alternative is evaluated on multiple criteria. We develop a visual interactive approach assuming that the decision maker (DM) has a general monotone utility function. The approach partitions the criteria space into nonoverlapping cells. The DM uses various graphical aids to move between cells and to further manipulate selected cells with the goal of creating cells that have ideal points less preferred than an alternative. When the DM identifies such cells, all alternatives in those cells are eliminated from further consideration. The DM may also compare pairs of alternatives. The approach terminates with the most preferred alternative of the DM.     

The number of feasible designs in a compatibility matrix

Many design and planning problems consist of a number of distinct subsystems. Generally, there are several possible alternatives for design of a subsystem. However, an alternative for one subsystem may be incompatible with an alternative for another subsystem. Thus, a feasible design is one that incorporates one alternative for each subsystem such that no pairwise incompatibilities exist. Several such design and planning problems have been formulated as compatibility matrices. The feasible designs can be identified by using an efficient algorithm. This paper shows that, in general, the exact number of feasible designs decreases exponentially with the increase in the number of incompatible pairs. This finding should motivate more potential users to employ the compatibility matrix approach.