Positive dependence properties of elliptically symmetric distributions

Let X₁, …, X_p have p.d.f. g(x₁² + … + x_p²). It is shown that (a) X₁, …, X_p are positively lower orthant dependent or positively upper orthant dependent if, and only if, X₁,…, X_p are i.i.d. N(0, σ²); and (b) the p.d.f. of |X₁|,…, |X_p| is TP₂ in pairs if, and only if, In g(u) is convex. Let X₁, X₂ have p.d.f. $\text{f(x}{}_1\text{, x}{}_2\text{) =}\text{|Σ|}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>?</mtext><mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}\text{g((x}{}_1\text{, x}{}_2\text{)}\text{Σ}{}^{\mathrm{?1}}\text{(x}{}_1\text{, x}{}_2\text{)′)}$. Necessary and sufficient conditions are given for f(x₁, x₂) to be TP₂ for fixed correlation ?. It is shown that if f is TP₂ for all ? >0. then (X₁, X₂)′ ～ N(0, Σ). Related positive dependence results and applications are also considered.     

On the theory of elliptically contoured distributions

The theory of elliptically contoured distributions is presented in an unrestricted setting, with no moment restrictions or assumptions of absolute continuity. These distributions are defined parametrically through their characteristic functions and then studied primarily through the use of stochastic representations which naturally follow from the work of Schoenberg [5] on spherically symmetric distributions. It is shown that the conditional distributions of elliptically contoured distributions are elliptically contoured, and the conditional distributions are precisely identified. In addition, a number of the properties of normal distributions (which constitute a type of elliptically contoured distributions) are shown, in fact, to characterize normality.     

Tail Dependence from a Distributional Point of View

The dependence structure in the tails of bivariate random variables is studied by means of appropriate copulae. Weak convergence results show that these copulae are natural dependence structures for joint tail events. The results obtained apply to particular types of copulae such as archimedean copulae and the Gaussian copula. Further, connections to multivariate extreme value theory are investigated and a two-dimensional Pickands–Balkema–de Haan Theorem type is derived. Finally, a counterexample showing that the tail dependence coefficients do not completely determine the dependence structure of bivariate rare events is provided.     

Tail asymptotic results for elliptical distributions

Let (X,Y) be a bivariate elliptical random vector with associated random radius in the Gumbel max-domain of attraction. In this paper we obtain a second order asymptotic expansion of the joint survival probability and the conditional probability , for x,y large.     

Tail dependence of random variables from ARCH and heavy-tailed bilinear models

Discussed in this paper is the dependent structure in the tails of distributions of random variables from some heavy-tailed stationary nonlinear time series. One class of models discussed is the first-order autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) process introduced by Engle (1982). The other class is the simple first-order bilinear models driven by heavy-tailed innovations. We give some explicit formulas for the asymptotic values of conditional probabilities used for measuring the tail dependence between two random variables from these models. Our results have significant meanings in finance.     

Exact probabilities of correct classifications for uncorrelated repeated measurements from elliptically contoured distributions

Euclidean distance-based classification rules are derived within a certain nonclassical linear model approach and applied to elliptically contoured samples having a density generating function g. Then a geometric measure theoretical method to evaluate exact probabilities of correct classification for multivariate uncorrelated feature vectors is developed. When doing this one has to measure suitably defined sets with certain standardized measures. The geometric key point is that the intersection percentage functions of the areas under investigation coincide with those of certain parabolic cylinder type sets. The intersection percentage functions of the latter sets can be described as threefold integrals. It turns out that these intersection percentage functions yield simultaneously geometric representation formulae for the doubly noncentral g-generalized F-distributions. Hence, we get beyond new formulae for evaluating probabilities of correct classification new geometric representation formulae for the doubly noncentral g-generalized F-distributions. A numerical study concerning several aspects of evaluating both probabilities of correct classification and values of the doubly noncentral g-generalized F-distributions demonstrates the advantageous computational properties of the present new approach. This impression will be supported by comparison with the literature.It is shown that probabilities of correct classification depend on the parameters of the underlying sample distribution through a certain well-defined set of secondary parameters. If the underlying parameters are unknown, we propose to estimate probabilities of correct classification.     

Tail asymptotic expansions for L-statistics

We derive higher-order expansions of L-statistics of independent risks X ₁, …,X _n under conditions on the underlying distribution function F. The new results are applied to derive the asymptotic expansions of ratios of two kinds of risk measures, stop-loss premium and excess return on capital, respectively. Several examples and a Monte Carlo simulation study show the efficiency of our novel asymptotic expansions.     

基于Copula函数的股指尾部相关性研究——以道琼斯工业指数与恒生指数为例

鉴于两步参数估计法在应用中存在误差大、计算复杂等缺陷,采用基于经验分布的半参数估计与非参数估计法确定相应边缘分布与Copula参数,对突发事件下的道琼斯工业指数与恒生指数之间的尾部相关性进行量化.研究发现ClaytonCopula,Gumbel Copula能够较好地刻画股指收益率序列间的尾部相关关系;道指与恒生指数存在着正的尾部相关且这种相关是非对称性的;在各个置信水平上,下尾损失均较上尾收益高,且下尾相关系数的增长幅度远大于上尾相关系数的增长幅度;极端事件造成的道指收益的剧烈下跌引发了恒生指数收益更强烈的相关反应,其造成的影响远超过两个市场同时上涨时的作用.     

Tail Behavior and Breakdown Properties of Equivariant Estimators of Location

For translation and scale equivariant estimators of location, inequalities connecting tail behavior and the finite-sample breakdown point are proved, analogous to those established by He et al. (1990, Econometrika, 58, 1195–1214) for monotone and translation equivariant estimators. Some other inequalities are given as well, enabling to establish refined bounds and in some cases exact values for the tail behavior under heavy- and light-tailed distributions. The inequalities cover translation and scale equivariant estimators in great generality, and they involve new breakdown-related quantities, whose relations to the breakdown point are discussed. The worth of tail-behavior considerations in robustness theory is demonstrated on examples, showing the impact of the basic two techniques in robust estimation: trimming and averaging. The mathematical language employs notions from regular variation theory.     

Near-exact distributions for the likelihood ratio test statistic to test equality of several variance-covariance matrices in elliptically contoured distributions

The exact distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistic to test the equality of several variance-covariance matrices has a non-manageable form. On the other hand, the existing asymptotic approximations do not exhibit the necessary precision for many applications. For these reasons, the development of near-exact approximations to the distribution of this statistic, arising from a different method of approximating distributions, emerges as a desirable goal. These distributions, while being manageable are much closer to the exact distribution than the usual asymptotic distributions and opposite to these, are also asymptotic for increasing number of variables and matrices involved. Computational modules to implement the near-exact distributions are made available on a web-site.     

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This note deals with an insurance company with multiple lines of business. In the context of heavy-tailed heterogeneous claim amounts with the 1st upper-orthant tail dependence, based on the so-called k-out-of-n ruin set, we can exhibit the Radon measure mu and derive the asymptotic ruin probability for some of all lines business to ruin in a finite time. One numerical example is also presented to illustrate our main results.     

Testing for affine equivalence of elliptically symmetric distributions

Let X and Y be d-dimensional random vectors having elliptically symmetric distributions. Call X and Y affinely equivalent if Y has the same distribution as AX+b for some nonsingular d×d-matrix A and some . This paper studies a class of affine invariant tests for affine equivalence under certain moment restrictions. The test statistics are measures of discrepancy between the empirical distributions of the norm of suitably standardized data.     

Characterizations and Examples of Hidden Regular Variation

Random vectors on the positive orthant whose distributions possess hidden regular variation are a subclass of those whose distributions are multivariate regularly varying. The concept is an elaboration of the coefficient of tail dependence of Ledford and Tawn (1996, 1997). We provide characterizations and examples of such distribution in terms of mixture models and product models.Sidney Resnicks research was partially supported by NSF grant DMS-0303493 and NSA grant MSPF-02G-183 at Cornell University.This revised version was published online in March 2005 with corrections to the cover date.     

Tail dependence functions and vine copulas

Tail dependence and conditional tail dependence functions describe, respectively, the tail probabilities and conditional tail probabilities of a copula at various relative scales. The properties as well as the interplay of these two functions are established based upon their homogeneous structures. The extremal dependence of a copula, as described by its extreme value copulas, is shown to be completely determined by its tail dependence functions. For a vine copula built from a set of bivariate copulas, its tail dependence function can be expressed recursively by the tail dependence and conditional tail dependence functions of lower-dimensional margins. The effect of tail dependence of bivariate linking copulas on that of a vine copula is also investigated.     

Extreme behavior of bivariate elliptical distributions

This paper exploits a stochastic representation of bivariate elliptical distributions in order to obtain asymptotic results which are determined by the tail behavior of the generator. Under certain specified assumptions, we present the limiting distribution of componentwise maxima, the limiting upper copula, and a bivariate version of the classical peaks over threshold result.