A spread model of COVID-19 with some strict anti-epidemic measures

In the absence of specific drugs and vaccines, the best way to control the spread of COVID-19 is to adopt and diligently implement effective and strict anti-epidemic measures. In this paper, a mathematical spread model is proposed based on strict epidemic prevention measures and the known spreading characteristics of COVID-19. The equilibria (disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium) and the basic regenerative number of the model are analyzed. In particular, we prove the asymptotic stability of the equilibria, including locally and globally asymptotic stability. In order to validate the effectiveness of this model, it is used to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Hubei Province of China for a period of time. The model parameters are estimated by the real data related to COVID-19 in Hubei. To further verify the model effectiveness, it is employed to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in Hunan Province of China. The mean relative error serves to measure the effect of fitting and simulations. Simulation results show that the model can accurately describe the spread dynamics of COVID-19. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters is also done to provide the basis for formulating prevention and control measures. According to the sensitivity analysis and corresponding simulations, it is found that the most effective non-pharmaceutical intervention measures for controlling COVID-19 are to reduce the contact rate of the population and increase the quarantine rate of infected individuals.

     

Estimating the state of epidemics spreading with graph neural networks

When an epidemic spreads into a population, it is often impractical or impossible to continuously monitor all subjects involved. As an alternative, we propose using algorithmic solutions that can infer the state of the whole population from a limited number of measures. We analyze the capability of deep neural networks to solve this challenging task. We base our proposed architecture on Graph Convolutional Neural Networks. As such, it can reason on the effect of the underlying social network structure, which is recognized as the main component in spreading an epidemic. The proposed architecture can reconstruct the entire state with accuracy above 70%, as proven by two scenarios modeled on the CoVid-19 pandemic. The first is a generic homogeneous population, and the second is a toy model of the Boston metropolitan area. Note that no retraining of the architecture is necessary when changing the model.

     

Dynamics and optimal control of a stochastic coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic model with diffusion

In view of the facts in the infection and propagation of COVID-19, a stochastic reaction–diffusion epidemic model is presented to analyse and control this infectious diseases. Stationary distribution and Turing instability of this model are discussed for deriving the sufficient criteria for the persistence and extinction of disease. Furthermore, the amplitude equations are derived by using Taylor series expansion and weakly nonlinear analysis, and selection of Turing patterns for this model can be determined. In addition, the optimal quarantine control problem for reducing control cost is studied, and the differences between the two models are compared. By applying the optimal control theory, the existence and uniqueness of the optimal control and the optimal solution are obtained. Finally, these results are verified and illustrated by numerical simulation.

     

Interpreting,analysing and modelling COVID-19 mortality data

We present results on the mortality statistics of the COVID-19 epidemic in a number of countries. Our data analysis suggests classifying countries in five groups, (1) Western countries, (2) East Block, (3) developed Southeast Asian countries, (4) Northern Hemisphere developing countries and (5) Southern Hemisphere countries. Comparing the number of deaths per million inhabitants, a pattern emerges in which the Western countries exhibit the largest mortality rate. Furthermore, comparing the running cumulative death tolls as the same level of outbreak progress in different countries reveals several subgroups within the Western countries and further emphasises the difference between the five groups. Analysing the relationship between deaths per million and life expectancy in different countries, taken as a proxy of the preponderance of elderly people in the population, a main reason behind the relatively more severe COVID-19 epidemic in the Western countries is found to be their larger population of elderly people, with exceptions such as Norway and Japan, for which other factors seem to dominate. Our comparison between countries at the same level of outbreak progress allows us to identify and quantify a measure of efficiency of the level of stringency of confinement measures. We find that increasing the stringency from 20 to 60 decreases the death count by about 50 lives per million in a time window of 20  days. Finally, we perform logistic equation analyses of deaths as a means of tracking the dynamics of outbreaks in the “first wave” and estimating the associated ultimate mortality, using four different models to identify model error and robustness of results. This quantitative analysis allows us to assess the outbreak progress in different countries, differentiating between those that are at a quite advanced stage and close to the end of the epidemic from those that are still in the middle of it. This raises many questions in terms of organisation, preparedness, governance structure and so on.

     

Dynamic and wear characteristics of self-lubricating bearing cage: effects of cage pocket shape

34,354,966 active cases and 460,787 deaths because of COVID-19 pandemic were recorded on November 06, 2021, in India. To end this ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic, there is an urgent need to implement multiple population-wide policies like social distancing, testing more people and contact tracing. To predict the course of the pandemic and come up with a strategy to control it effectively, a compartmental model has been established. The following six stages of infection are taken into consideration: susceptible (S), asymptomatic infected (A), clinically ill or symptomatic infected (I), quarantine (Q), isolation (J) and recovered (R), collectively termed as SAIQJR. The qualitative behavior of the model and the stability of biologically realistic equilibrium points are investigated in terms of the basic reproduction number. We performed sensitivity analysis with respect to the basic reproduction number and obtained that the disease transmission rate has an impact in mitigating the spread of diseases. Moreover, considering the non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical intervention strategies as control functions, an optimal control problem is implemented to mitigate the disease fatality. To reduce the infected individuals and to minimize the cost of the controls, an objective functional has been constructed and solved with the aid of Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The implementation of optimal control strategy at the start of a pandemic tends to decrease the intensity of epidemic peaks, spreading the maximal impact of an epidemic over an extended time period. Extensive numerical simulations show that the implementation of intervention strategy has an impact in controlling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic. Further, our numerical solutions exhibit that the combination of three controls are more influential when compared with the combination of two controls as well as single control. Therefore, the implementation of all the three control strategies may help to mitigate novel coronavirus disease transmission at this present epidemic scenario.

     

Intensive care unit occupancy predictions in the COVID-19 pandemic based on age-structured modelling and differential flatness

The COVID-19 pandemic confronts governments and their health systems with great challenges for disease management. In many countries, hospitalization and in particular ICU occupancy is the primary measure for policy makers to decide on possible non-pharmaceutical interventions. In this paper a combined methodology for the prediction of COVID-19 case numbers, case-specific hospitalization and ICU admission rates as well as hospital and ICU occupancies is proposed. To this end, we employ differential flatness to provide estimates of the states of an epidemiological compartmental model and estimates of the unknown exogenous inputs driving its nonlinear dynamics. A main advantage of this method is that it requires the reported infection cases as the only data source. As vaccination rates and case-specific ICU rates are both strongly age-dependent, specifically an age-structured compartmental model is proposed to estimate and predict the spread of the epidemic across different age groups. By utilizing these predictions, case-specific hospitalization and case-specific ICU rates are subsequently estimated using deconvolution techniques. In an analysis of various countries we demonstrate how the methodology is able to produce real-time state estimates and hospital/ICU occupancy predictions for several weeks thus providing a sound basis for policy makers.

     

Assessing the potential impact of immunity waning on the dynamics of COVID-19 in South Africa: an endemic model of COVID-19

We developed an endemic model of COVID-19 to assess the impact of vaccination and immunity waning on the dynamics of the disease. Our model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation and bi-stability, where a stable disease-free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium. The epidemiological implication of this is that the control reproduction number being less than unity is no longer sufficient to guarantee disease eradication. We showed that this phenomenon could be eliminated by either increasing the vaccine efficacy or by reducing the disease transmission rate (adhering to non-pharmaceutical interventions). Furthermore, we numerically investigated the impacts of vaccination and waning of both vaccine-induced immunity and post-recovery immunity on the disease dynamics. Our simulation results show that the waning of vaccine-induced immunity has more effect on the disease dynamics relative to post-recovery immunity waning and suggests that more emphasis should be on reducing the waning of vaccine-induced immunity to eradicate COVID-19.

     

Analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions impacts on COVID-19 pandemic in Iran

The COVID-19 pandemic shows to have a huge impact on people's health and countries' infrastructures around the globe. Iran was one of the first countries that experienced the vast prevalence of the coronavirus outbreak. The Iranian authorities applied various non-pharmaceutical interventions to eradicate the epidemic in different periods. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in managing the current Coronavirus pandemic and to predict the next wave of infection in Iran. To achieve the research objective, the number of cases and deaths before and after the interventions was studied and the effective reproduction number of the infection was analyzed under various scenarios. The SEIR generic model was applied to capture the dynamic of the pandemic in Iran. To capture the effects of different interventions, the corresponding reproduction number was considered. Depending on how people are responsive to interventions, the effectiveness of each intervention has been investigated. Results show that the maximum number of the total of infected individuals will occur around the end of May and the start of June 2021. It is concluded that the outbreak could be smoothed if full lockdown and strict quarantine continue. The proposed modeling could be used as an assessment tool to evaluate the effects of different interventions in new outbreaks.

     

Dynamics and control of COVID-19 pandemic with nonlinear incidence rates

World Health Organization (WHO) has declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020. As of May 23, 2020, according to WHO, there are 213 countries, areas or territories with COVID-19 positive cases. To effectively address this situation, it is imperative to have a clear understanding of the COVID-19 transmission dynamics and to concoct efficient control measures to mitigate/contain the spread. In this work, the COVID-19 dynamics is modelled using susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed model with a nonlinear incidence rate. In order to control the transmission, the coefficient of nonlinear incidence function is adopted as the Governmental control input. To adequately understand the COVID-19 dynamics, bifurcation analysis is performed and the effect of varying reproduction number on the COVID-19 transmission is studied. The inadequacy of an open-loop approach in controlling the disease spread is validated via numerical simulations and a robust closed-loop control methodology using sliding mode control is also presented. The proposed SMC strategy could bring the basic reproduction number closer to 1 from an initial value of 2.5, thus limiting the exposed and infected individuals to a controllable threshold value. The model and the proposed control strategy are then compared with real-time data in order to verify its efficacy.

     

Transmission dynamics of novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 among healthcare workers,a case study in Iran

One of the main concerns during the COVID-19 pandemic was the protection of healthcare workers against the novel coronavirus. The critical role and vulnerability of healthcare workers during the COVID-19 pandemic leads us to derive a mathematical model to express the spread of coronavirus between the healthcare workers. In the first step, the SECIRH model is introduced, and then the mathematical equations are written. The proposed model includes eight state variables, i.e., Susceptible, Exposed, Carrier, Infected, Hospitalized, ICU admitted, Dead, and finally Recovered. In this model, the vaccination, protective equipment, and recruitment policy are considered as preventive actions. The formal confirmed data provided by the Iranian ministry of health is used to simulate the proposed model. The simulation results revealed that the proposed model has a high degree of consistency with the actual COVID-19 daily statistics. In addition, the roles of vaccination, protective equipment, and recruitment policy for the elimination of coronavirus among the healthcare workers are investigated. The results of this research help the policymakers to adopt the best decisions against the spread of coronavirus among healthcare workers.

     

A Two-Dimensional Areal Model for Density Dependent Flow Regime

A two-dimensional (2D) plane model of saltwater intrusion was developed, for the simulation of groundwater level and the average solute concentration in a 2D horizontal plane, together with the estimation of the saltwater depth. The proposed approach is of particular interest when assessing the effect of different regional pumping scenarios on groundwater level and its quality. The corresponding MEL2DSLT code was developed on the basis of the Modified Eulerian–Lagrangian (MEL) method to overcome difficulties arising from hyperbolic behavior of flow and transport equations, due to the advective nature of solute transport and heterogeneity of the soil characteristics (permeabilities and dispersivities). The code was verified against the 2D cross sectional model SUTRA and the three-dimensional (3D) model SWICHA. Simulation was conducted concerning the problem of saltwater intrusion in the Khan Yunis portion of the phreatic coastal aquifer of Gaza Strip. After calibrating the model for the aquifer parameters, we investigated its predictions resulting from various regional pumping scenarios using the actual pumping intensity from the year 1985 and extrapolating on the basis of 3.8% annual population growth. Results show a considerable depletion of groundwater level and intrusion of seawater due to excessive pumping.     

Modeling and staged assessments of the controllability of spread for repeated outbreaks of COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) has been causing an outbreak of a new type of pneumonia globally, and repeated outbreaks have already appeared. Among the studies on the spread of the COVID-19, few studies have investigated the repeated outbreaks in stages, and the quantitative condition of a controllable spread has not been revealed. In this paper, a brief compartmental model is developed. The effective reproduction number (ERN) of the model is interpreted by the ratio of net newly infectious individuals to net isolation infections to assess the controllability of the spread of COVID-19. It is found that the value of the ERN at the inflection point of the pandemic is equal to one. The effectiveness of the quarantine, even the treatment, is parametrized in various stages with Gompertz functions to increase modeling accuracy. The impacts of the vaccinations are discussed by adding a vaccinated compartment. The results show that the sufficient vaccinations can make the inflection point appear early and significantly reduce subsequent increases in newly confirmed cases. The analysis of the ERNs of COVID-19 in the United States, Spain, France, and Peru confirms that the condition of a repeated outbreak is to relax or lift the interventions related to isolation and quarantine interventions to a level where the ERN is greater than one.

     

The impact of the global and local awareness diffusion on epidemic transmission considering the heterogeneity of individual influences

In this paper, we propose a coupled awareness—epidemic spreading model considering the heterogeneity of individual influences, which aims to explore the interaction between awareness diffusion and epidemic transmission. The considered heterogeneities of individual influences are threefold: the heterogeneity of individual influences in the information layer, the heterogeneity of individual influences in the epidemic layer and the heterogeneity of individual behavioral responses to epidemics. In addition, the individuals’ receptive preference for information and the impacts of individuals’ perceived local awareness ratio and individuals’ perceived epidemic severity on self-protective behavior are included. The epidemic threshold is theoretically established by the microscopic Markov chain approach and the mean-field approach. Results indicate that the critical local and global awareness ratios have two-stage effects on the epidemic threshold. Besides, either the heterogeneity of individual influences in the information layer or the strength of individuals’ responses to epidemics can influence the epidemic threshold with a nonlinear way. However, the heterogeneity of individual influences in the epidemic layer has few effect on the epidemic threshold, but can affects the magnitude of the final infected density.

     

Modeling the Dynamics and Kinematics of a Telescopic Rotary Crane by the Bond Graph Method: Part II

Simulation of a rotary telescopic crane for which a detailed nonlinearbond graph model has been established in Part I of this study, isrealized utilizing experimental actual system for geometrical anddynamical parameters. With the intention of comparing the real system andthe model and of verifying the sufficiency of the model accuracy,various scenarios are defined corresponding to different loading andoperating conditions. Of the scenarios defined, impulse response, timeresponse and static response are used to experimentally gather such system parameters and variables as damping coefficient, cylinderdisplacements, and stiffness of the telescopic boom, respectively.Following, the simulation for two dissimilar scenarios which are staticresponse and impulse response is undergone and results are presented.     

A data-driven model of the COVID-19 spread among interconnected populations: epidemiological and mobility aspects following the lockdown in Italy

Nonlinear Dynamics - An epidemic multi-group model formed by interconnected SEIR-like structures is formulated and used for data fitting to gain insight into the COVID-19 dynamics and into the role...     

A linked FEM-damage percolation model of aluminum alloy sheet forming

A so-called damage percolation model is linked with a finite element model of a sheet forming process to offer a comprehensive study of ductile damage evolution. In the current study, a damage percolation code is linked with LS-DYNA, an explicit dynamic FEM code used to introduce local strain gradients and compliance effects due to damage-induced softening. The linked model utilizes a Gurson-based yield surface to account for the softening effects of void damage, while the local damage development and void linkage events are modeled using the damage percolation code. The percolation code accepts detailed second phase particle fields from image analysis of a 2.0×1.6 mm optical micrograph of AA5182 aluminum alloy sheet. The model is applied to a stretch-flange stamping process which is known to be a damage-sensitive operation. The critical conditions for fracture are predicted for various initial stretch flange hole sizes.     

Characteristic nonlinear system identification of local attachments with clearance nonlinearities

Nonlinear Dynamics - In this paper, a SEIR epidemic model for the COVID-19 is built according to some general control strategies, such as hospital, quarantine and external input. Based on the data...     

Analysis of second outbreak of COVID-19 after relaxation of control measures in India

At present, more and more countries have entered the parallel stage of fighting the epidemic and restoring the economy after reaching the inflection point. Due to economic pressure, the government of India had to implement a policy of relaxing control during the rising period of the epidemic. This paper proposes a compartment model to study the development of COVID-19 in India after relaxing control. The Sigmoid function reflecting the cumulative effect is used to characterize the model-based diagnosis rate, cure rate and mortality rate. Considering the influence of the lockdown on the model parameters, the data are fitted using the method of least squares before and after the lockdown. According to numerical simulation and model analysis, the impact of India’s relaxation of control before and after the inflection point is studied. Research shows that adopting a relaxation policy prematurely will have disastrous consequences. Even if the degree of relaxation is only 5% before the inflection point, it will increase the number of deaths by 15.03%. If the control is relaxed after the inflection point, the higher degree of relaxation, the more likely a secondary outbreak will occur, which will extend the duration of the pandemic, leading to more deaths and put more pressure on the health care system. It is found that after the implementation of the relaxation policy, medical quarantine capability and public cooperation are two vital indicators. The results show that if the supply of kits and detection speed can be increased after the control is relaxed, the secondary outbreak can be effectively avoided. Meanwhile, the increase in public cooperation can significantly reduce the spread of the virus, suppress the second outbreak of the pandemic and reduce the death toll. It is of reference significance to the government’s policy formulation.