A Combinatorial Approach to Piecewise Linear Time Series Analysis

Over recent years, several nonlinear time series models have been proposed in the literature. One model that has found a large number of successful applications is the threshold autoregressive model (TAR). The TAR model is a piecewise linear process whose central idea is to change the parameters of a linear autoregressive model according to the value of an observable variable, called the threshold variable. If this variable is a lagged value of the time series, the model is called a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model. In this article, we propose a heuristic to estimate a more general SETAR model, where the thresholds are multivariate. We formulate the task of finding multivariate thresholds as a combinatorial optimization problem. We develop an algorithm based on a greedy randomized adaptive search procedure (GRASP) to solve the problem. GRASP is an iterative randomized sampling technique that has been shown to quickly produce good quality solutions for a wide variety of optimization problems. The proposed model performs well on both simulated and real data.     

An elementary approach to dynamics and bifurcations of skew tent maps

In this paper, the dynamics of skew tent maps are classified in terms of two bifurcation parameters. In time series analysis such maps are usually referred to as continuous threshold autoregressive models (TAR(1)-models) after Tong (Non-Linear Time Series, Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK, 1990). This study contains results simplifying the use of TAR(1)-models considerably, e.g. if a periodic attractor exists it is unique. On the other hand, we also claim that care must be exercised when TAR models are used. In fact, they possess a very special type of dynamical pattern with respect to the bifurcation parameters and their transition to chaos is far from standard.     

Multi–regime models for nonlinear nonstationary time series

Nonlinear nonstationary models for time series are considered, where the series is generated from an autoregressive equation whose coefficients change both according to time and the delayed values of the series itself, switching between several regimes. The transition from one regime to the next one may be discontinuous (self-exciting threshold model), smooth (smooth transition model) or continuous linear (piecewise linear threshold model). A genetic algorithm for identifying and estimating such models is proposed, and its behavior is evaluated through a simulation study and application to temperature data and a financial index.     

SETAR model selection-A bootstrap approach

Summary  The aim of this paper is to propose new selection criteria for the orders of selfexciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. These criteria use bootstrap methodology; they are based on a weighted mean of the apparent error rate in the sample and the average error rate obtained from bootstrap samples not containing the point being predicted. These new criteria are compared with the traditional ones based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC). A simulation study and an example on a real data set end the paper.     

Linear Model Selection Based on Risk Estimation

The problem of selecting one model from a family of linear models to describe a normally distributed observed data vector is considered. The notion of the model of given dimension nearest to the observation vector is introduced and methods of estimating the risk associated with such a nearest model are discussed. This leads to new model selection criteria one of which, called the "partial bootstrap", seems particularly promising. The methods are illustrated by specializing to the problem of estimating the non-zero components of a parameter vector on which noisy observations are available.     

Autoregressive process modeling via the Lasso procedure

The Lasso is a popular model selection and estimation procedure for linear models that enjoys nice theoretical properties. In this paper, we study the Lasso estimator for fitting autoregressive time series models. We adopt a double asymptotic framework where the maximal lag may increase with the sample size. We derive theoretical results establishing various types of consistency. In particular, we derive conditions under which the Lasso estimator for the autoregressive coefficients is model selection consistent, estimation consistent and prediction consistent. Simulation study results are reported.     

The Problem of Aliasing in Identifying Finite Parameter Continuous Time Stochastic Models

This note exposits the problem of aliasing in identifying finite parameter continuous time stochastic models, including econometric models, on the basis of discrete data. The identification problem for continuous time vector autoregressive models is characterised as an inverse problem involving a certain block triangular matrix, facilitating the derivation of an improved sufficient condition for the restrictions the parameters must satisfy in order that they be identified on the basis of equispaced discrete data. Sufficient conditions already exist in the literature but these conditions are not sharp and rule out plausible time series behaviour.     

Bayesian analysis of multiple thresholds autoregressive model

Bayesian analysis of threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with various possible thresholds is considered. A method of Bayesian stochastic search selection is introduced to identify a threshold-dependent sequence with highest probability. All model parameters are computed by a hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo method, which combines Metropolis–Hastings algorithm and Gibbs sampler. The main innovation of the method introduced here is to estimate the TAR model without assuming the fixed number of threshold values, thus is more flexible and useful. Simulation experiments and a real data example lend further support to the proposed approach.     

Functional data analysis for cash flow and transactions intensity continuous-time prediction using Hilbert-valued autoregressive processes

In this paper we use a functional autoregressive model as a robust predictor of the cash flow and intensity of transactions in a credit card payment systems. Intraday economic time series are treated as random continuous functions projected onto low dimensional subspace. Wavelet bases are considered for data smoothing. We compare two linear wavelet methods for the prediction problem of a continuous-time stochastic process on an entire time interval. Ex poste prediction is used to check the models.     

A Hessian Regularized Nonlinear Time Series Model

We introduce a nonparametric nonlinear time series model. The novel idea is to fit a model via penalization, where the penalty term is an unbiased estimator of the integrated Hessian of the underlying function. The underlying model assumption is very general: it has Hessian almost everywhere in its domain. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our model has better predictive power: if the underlying model complies with an existing parametric/semiparametric form (e.g., a threshold autoregressive model (TAR), an additive autoregressive model (AAR), or a functional coefficient autoregressive model (FAR)), our model performs comparably; if the underlying model does not comply with any preexisting form, our model outperforms in nearly all simulations. We name our model a Hessian regularized nonlinear model for time series (HRM). We conjecture on theoretical properties and use simulations to verify. Our method can be viewed as a way to generalize splines to high dimensions (when the number of variates is more than three), under which an analogous analytical derivation cannot work due to the curse of dimensionality. Supplemental materials are provided, and will help readers reproduce all results in the article.     

Weekday dependence of German stock market returns

The so‐called ‘Monday effect’ has been found for various stock markets of the world. The empirical finding that Monday returns are significantly smaller than returns measured for the remaining days of the week calls the efficiency hypothesis for pricing processes operating on stock markets into question. Investigating an index series measured at the Frankfurt stock exchange the paper compares estimation results of parametric and non‐parametric autoregressive models with respect to possible weekday dependence of return data. Allowing for heteroskedastic error distributions the wild bootstrap is used to infer against time‐varying means and correlation of return data in parametric models and to obtain confidence bands for non‐parametric estimates. It is shown that time dependence is an important feature describing the dynamics of German stock market returns in the period 1960–1979. Within two subsamples obtained from the period 1980–1997 the evidence in favour of such effects is mitigated substantially. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On identification of the threshold diffusion processes

We consider the problems of parameter estimation for several models of threshold ergodic diffusion processes in the asymptotics of large samples. These models are the direct continuous time analogues of the well known in time series analysis threshold autoregressive models. In such models, the trend is switching when the observed process attaints some (unknown) values and the problem is to estimate it or to test some hypotheses concerning these values. The related statistical problems correspond to the singular estimation or testing, for example, the rate of convergence of estimators is T and not ?T{\sqrt{T}} as in regular estimation problems. We study the asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators and discuss the possibility of the construction of the goodness-of-fit test for such models of observation.     

The multiple hybrid bootstrap — Resampling multivariate linear processes

The paper reconsiders the autoregressive aided periodogram bootstrap (AAPB) which has been suggested in Kreiss and Paparoditis (2003) [18]. Their idea was to combine a time domain parametric and a frequency domain nonparametric bootstrap to mimic not only a part but as much as possible the complete covariance structure of the underlying time series. We extend the AAPB in two directions. Our procedure explicitly leads to bootstrap observations in the time domain and it is applicable to multivariate linear processes, but agrees exactly with the AAPB in the univariate case, when applied to functionals of the periodogram. The asymptotic theory developed shows validity of the multiple hybrid bootstrap procedure for the sample mean, kernel spectral density estimates and, with less generality, for autocovariances.     

基于贝叶斯推断的TAR模型的门限非线性检验

在正态分布的假定下,变点问题按照均值和方差的变化有四种情形.本文把TAR模型门限非线性的检验问题,看作是对应均值变化,方差不变情形下的变点问题.然后利用可逆跳马尔可夫蒙特卡罗模拟(RJMCMC)方法计算两个比较模型(AR和TAR模型)的后验概率.后验概率的结果支持TAR模型表明门限非线性的存在.模拟实验的结果说明基于贝叶斯推断的检验方法可以很好的区分AR和TAR模型.     

Parameter change test for location‐scale time series models with heteroscedasticity based on bootstrap

This study considers the bootstrap cumulative sum (CUSUM) test for a parameter change in location‐scale time series models with heteroscedasticity. The CUSUM test has been popular for detecting an abrupt change in time series models because it performs well in many applications. However, it has severe size distortions in many situations. As a remedy, we consider the bootstrap CUSUM test, particularly focusing on the CUSUM test based on score vectors, and demonstrate the weak consistency of the bootstrap test for its justification. A simulation study and data analysis are conducted for illustration.     

Heteroscedasticity checks for regression models

For checking on heteroscedasticity in regression models, a unified approach is proposed to constructing test statistics in parametric and nonparametric regression models. For nonparametric regression, the test is not affected sensitively by the choice of smoothing parameters which are involved in estimation of the nonparametric regression function. The limiting null distribution of the test statistic remains the same in a wide range of the smoothing parameters. When the covariate is one-dimensional, the tests are, under some conditions, asymptotically distribution-free. In the high-dimensional cases, the validity of bootstrap approximations is investigated. It is shown that a variant of the wild bootstrap is consistent while the classical bootstrap is not in the general case, but is applicable if some extra assumption on conditional variance of the squared error is imposed. A simulation study is performed to provide evidence of how the tests work and compare with tests that have appeared in the literature. The approach may readily be extended to handle partial linear, and linear autoregressive models.     

Local Unit Roots and Global Stationarity of TARMA Models

In this paper the (strict and weak) stationarity of threshold autoregressive moving average models is discussed. After examining the strict stationarity, mainly based on the random coefficient autoregressive representation of the model, we provide sufficient conditions for its weak stationarity that allow to obtain a wider stationarity region with respect to some previous results given in the literature. These conditions are discussed to distinguish between global and local stationarity, whose relation has been considered in detail. The threshold process has been further evaluated to face the problem related to the so called existence of a threshold structure in the data generating process that is strictly related to the stationarity and has significant relevance when the parameters of the model have to be estimated.     

Semiparametric Bootstrap Approach to Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals for the Hurst Coefficient

A major application of rescaled adjusted range analysis (R–S analysis) is to the study of price fluctuations in financial markets. There, the value of the Hurst constant, H, in a time series may be interpreted as an indicator of the irregularity of the price of a commodity, currency or similar quantity. Interval estimation and hypothesis testing for H are central to comparative quantitative analysis. In this paper we propose a new bootstrap, or Monte Carlo, approach to such problems. Traditional bootstrap methods in this context are based on fitting a process chosen from a wide but relatively conventional range of discrete time series models, including autoregressions, moving averages, autoregressive moving averages and many more. By way of contrast we suggest simulation using a single type of continuous-time process, with its fractal dimension. We provide theoretical justification for this method, and explore its numerical properties and statistical performance by application to real data on commodity prices and exchange rates. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Model selection of a switching mechanism for financial time series

The threshold autoregressive model with generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) specification is a popular nonlinear model that captures the well‐known asymmetric phenomena in financial market data. The switching mechanisms of hysteretic autoregressive GARCH models are different from threshold autoregressive model with GARCH as regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. This paper conducts a Bayesian model comparison among competing models by designing an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme. We illustrate the performance of three kinds of criteria by comparing models with fat‐tailed and/or skewed errors: deviance information criteria, Bayesian predictive information, and an asymptotic version of Bayesian predictive information. A simulation study highlights the properties of the three Bayesian criteria and the accuracy as well as their favorable performance as model selection tools. We demonstrate the proposed method in an empirical study of 12 international stock markets, providing evidence to strongly support for both models with skew fat‐tailed innovations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A real-time methodology for minimizing mean flowtime in FMSs with routing flexibility: Threshold-based alternate routing

This paper presents an efficient continuous real-time routing strategy, namely threshold-based alternate routing (TAR), to minimize mean flowtime of parts in a FMS with routing flexibility. TAR routes parts to alternate machines instead of their primary machines when the benefit in terms of waiting time obtained from routing to an alternate machine exceeds a pre-determined threshold value. This study proposes that the threshold value for each manufacturing system is unique and presents a methodology for determining its unique value. The threshold concept and the performance of TAR in minimizing mean flowtime are tested with extensive experimentation, involving intricate experimental design. TAR provides very significant improvements in system performance measures compared to other real-time rerouting methods and shows that the threshold value is unique and dependent on system parameters for each manufacturing system. The relationship between the threshold value and system parameters has also been determined.