基于支持向量机的装备技术方案多属性决策

在装备技术方案选择中,为获取和表达决策者的偏好,实现对方案的选择,提出了基于支持向量机的多属性决策方法。首先,分析了多属性决策支持向量机方法的原理。其次,提出了基于属性效用函数估计的学习样本构造方法,从决策问题本身抽取学习样本。最后给出了一个算例。     

Multi-attribute non-expected utility

In management applications of risk theory, planning and decision making are typically concerned with complex multi-dimensional attributes of risk and utility trade-offs between them. This paper presents a novel approach to multi-attribute non-expected utility which is especially designed to serve application and risk management purposes. It is based on a recently developed non-expected utility model that accommodates systematic violations of expected utility of various kinds observed in risky choice experiments. In the model, the possible outcomes of risky decisions are assumed to be multi-dimensional, that is, classified, measured, compared and assessed from different economic and non-economic perspectives simultaneously. Of the risk attributes to be jointly evaluated in a decision problem, each is supposed to be utility independent of the complementary set of all the other attributes also considered. Mutual utility independence and additive independence are particularly pronounced forms of utility independence. An order-preserving preference functional exists if the agent??s risk preferences satisfy familiar rationality requirements. The functional provides a consistently scaled, multi-linear representation in terms of single-attribute probability-dependent utility functions. Finally, the formalism is applied to explain observed trade-offs between monetary benefits obtained, and fatalities incurred, in the operation of large-scale industrial systems.     

Representing risk preferences in expected utility based decision models

Users of expected utility based decision models frequently find it useful or necessary to specify a functional form that represents the risk preferences of a decision maker. Having additional functional forms from which to choose would be helpful. The literature so far has provided several such functional forms for the utility function itself. The discussion presented here indicates that providing a functional form for the marginal utility function is an alternate and equally useful way to represent risk preferences. Furthermore, functional forms for marginal utility are easier to provide, and there exist functional forms for marginal utility that represent simple risk preferences for which there is no associated functional form for the utility function. Several functional forms for marginal utility are suggested, and the class of isoelastic risk preferences is identified and discussed.     

Fuzzy measures of supplier evaluation under lean concepts

Supplier evaluation is a multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) problem involving a mixture of qualitative and quantitative attributes. Some mathematical programming techniques have difficulty in dealing with the qualitative attributes that are not easy to measure but very important in supplier evaluation. Fuzzy set theory is useful whenever variables defining a complex and vague system can neither be quantitatively defined nor assigned very precise measures, but are described by linguistic values. This paper presents a procedure for supplier evaluation by incorporating fuzzy set theory into the evaluation process to handle the qualitative attributes in the problem. A mathematical ranking method is used to convert the qualitative attributes into crisp scores. All the quantitative and qualitative performance measures are normalized and then using the proposed model, data are integrated into a single score to rank suppliers. The model application is demonstrated through two previously reported data sets under lean philosophy.     

Extension of the LINMAP for multiattribute decision making under Atanassov’s intuitionistic fuzzy environment

The aim of this article is further extending the linear programming techniques for multidimensional analysis of preference (LINMAP) to develop a new methodology for solving multiattribute decision making (MADM) problems under Atanassov’s intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) environments. The LINMAP only can deal with MADM problems in crisp environments. However, fuzziness is inherent in decision data and decision making processes. In this methodology, Atanassov’s IF sets are used to describe fuzziness in decision information and decision making processes by means of an Atanassov’s IF decision matrix. A Euclidean distance is proposed to measure the difference between Atanassov’s IF sets. Consistency and inconsistency indices are defined on the basis of preferences between alternatives given by the decision maker. Each alternative is assessed on the basis of its distance to an Atanassov’s IF positive ideal solution (IFPIS) which is unknown a prior. The Atanassov’s IFPIS and the weights of attributes are then estimated using a new linear programming model based upon the consistency and inconsistency indices defined. Finally, the distance of each alternative to the Atanassov’s IFPIS can be calculated to determine the ranking order of all alternatives. A numerical example is examined to demonstrate the implementation process of this methodology. Also it has been proved that the methodology proposed in this article can deal with MADM problems under not only Atanassov’s IF environments but also both fuzzy and crisp environments.     

The GOWA operator based approach to multiattribute decision making using intuitionistic fuzzy sets

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for solving multiattribute decision making (MADM) problems in which weights of attributes and ratings of alternatives on qualitative and quantitative attributes are expressed with intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFSs). In this methodology, relative membership/satisfaction and non-membership/non-satisfaction degrees are formulated to construct IFSs for numerical values of alternatives on quantitative attributes. Alternatives on qualitative attributes are evaluated using linguistic variables and semantics which are parameterized by IFSs. Hereby, weights and ratings of alternatives on both qualitative attributes and quantitative attributes may be expressed with IFSs in a unified way. The generalized ordered weighted averaging (GOWA) operator is further extended to the situations in which the argument values are IFSs and thus a methodology is developed to solve MADM problems using IFSs. Validity and applicability of the proposed methodology in this paper are illustrated with a real numerical example.     

Exponential operations for intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and interval numbers in multi-attribute decision making

Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IFNs) have already been applied to many fields, especially in multi-attribute decision making (MADM). Based on the basic operational laws and information aggregation methods of IFNs, MADM with intuitionistic fuzzy information has become more and more popular. In this paper, we investigate the MADM problems where the attribute values take the form of interval numbers and the weight information on the attributes are expressed as IFNs. We first propose a novel exponential operational law based on IFNs and interval numbers, and then study some of its desirable properties. Based on the exponential operational law, we put forward an intuitionistic fuzzy weighted exponential aggregation operator, and utilize it to develop a MADM method. Finally, we apply our method to solve the decision making problem under uncertainty.     

Decision-Making with Sugeno Integrals

This paper clarifies the connection between multiple criteria decision-making and decision under uncertainty in a qualitative setting relying on a finite value scale. While their mathematical formulations are very similar, the underlying assumptions differ and the latter problem turns out to be a special case of the former. Sugeno integrals are very general aggregation operations that can represent preference relations between uncertain acts or between multifactorial alternatives where attributes share the same totally ordered domain. This paper proposes a generalized form of the Sugeno integral that can cope with attributes having distinct domains via the use of qualitative utility functions. It is shown that in the case of decision under uncertainty, this model corresponds to state-dependent preferences on consequences of acts. Axiomatizations of the corresponding preference functionals are proposed in the cases where uncertainty is represented by possibility measures, by necessity measures, and by general order-preserving set-functions, respectively. This is achieved by weakening previously proposed axiom systems for Sugeno integrals.     

基于双参照点的区间型多属性决策方法研究

文章针对属性值为区间数、权重完全未知的多属性决策问题,提出一种基于双参照点的多属性决策方法。首先,描述了双参照点决策问题的广泛性,分析了双参照点的特征及其对决策行为的影响;接着,通过损益值和态度值来计算效用值,并将效用值用于判断备选策略的可行性;再接着,给出基于损益值的赋权法;然后,利用区间TOPSIS法对效用值进行集结和策略排序;最后,通过一个实例证明本文所提出的决策方法的科学性。     

An extension of TOPSIS for group decision making

An extension of TOPSIS (technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution), a multi-attribute decision making (MADM) technique, to a group decision environment is investigated. TOPSIS is a practical and useful technique for ranking and selection of a number of externally determined alternatives through distance measures. To get a broad view of the techniques used, we provide a few options for the operations, such as normalization, distance measures and mean operators, at each of the corresponding steps of TOPSIS. In addition, the preferences of more than one decision maker are internally aggregated into the TOPSIS procedure. Unlike in previous developments, our group preferences are aggregated within the procedure. The proposed model is indeed a unified process and it will be readily applicable to many real-world decision making situations without increasing the computational burden. In the final part, the effects of external aggregation and internal aggregation of group preferences for TOPSIS with different computational combinations are compared using examples. The results have demonstrated our model to be both robust and efficient.     

THE USE OF TELESCOPING SPATIAL SCALES TO CAPTURE INSHORE TO SLOPE DYNAMICS IN MARINE ECOSYSTEM MODELING

Abstract Ecosystem processes function at many scales, and capturing these processes is a challenge for ecosystem models. Nevertheless, it is a necessary step for considering many management issues pertaining to shelf and coastal systems. In this paper, we explore one method of modeling large areas with a focus at a range of scales. We develop an ecosystem model that can be used for strategic management decision support by modeling the waters off southeastern Australia using a polygon telescoping approach, which incorporates fine‐scale detail at the coastal zone, increasing in scale to a very coarse scale in the offshore areas. This telescoping technique is a useful tool for incorporating a wide range of habitats at different scales into a single model.     

基于QUALIFLEX和LINMAP的简化中性犹豫模糊多属性决策方法

在处理多属性决策问题中,QUALIFLEX是一种非常有用的排序算法。针对属性取值为简化中性犹豫模糊集的多属性决策问题,提出了SNHFS-QUALIFLEX算法。另外考虑到属性权重不确定的情况,将LINMAP扩展到简化中性犹豫模糊集中,定义了符号距离,建立了最优数学规划模型来确定属性权重。最后将SNHFS-QUALIFLEX方法应用到多属性决策实例中,并验证了其可行性和有效性。     

考虑混合信息表征和属性交互的目标导向新产品开发方案选择方法

将目标值融入到新产品开发方案选择中,考虑方案属性值达成目标值的情况,有助于企业选择更具竞争力的产品开发方案。针对属性值和目标值的混合信息表征以及属性交互的问题,提出基于目标导向决策分析和k-可加模糊测度的新产品开发方案选择方法。首先,考虑目标值和属性值表示为区间值、模糊数、语言值等混合信息的情形,将其转化为概率密度;结合属性的三种偏好,利用目标导向决策分析计算属性值达成目标值的概率。其次,基于属性交互方向和强度等信息,利用最小方差法识别k-可加模糊测度,进而利用Choquet积分算子集结各属性的目标达成概率作为产品开发方案选择的依据。最后,将方法应用于大型集成电路测试仪的开发方案选择,验证了有效性。     

An interactive decision procedure with multiple attributes under risk

Consider a finite set of alternatives under risk which have multiple attributes. MARPI is an interactive computer-based procedure to find an efficient choice in the sense of linear expected utility. The choice is based on incomplete information about the decision maker's preferences which is elicited and processed in a sequential way. The information includes qualitative properties of the multivariate utility function such as monotonicity, risk aversion, and separability. Further, in case of an additively separable utility function, bounds on the scaling constants are elicited, and preferences (not necessarily indifferences) between sure amounts and lotteries are asked from the decision maker. The lotteries are Bernoulli lotteries generated by MARPI using special strategies. At every stage of the procedure the efficient set of alternatives is determined with respect to the information elicited so far.The procedure has been fully implemented on a PC. The paper exhibits the basic ideas of MARPI and some details of its implementation.     

基于双边犹豫模糊非均衡语言优先集成算子的应急响应预案评估方法

在应用多属性决策理论求解应急响应预案评估问题时,问题结构的复杂性往往使决策者评价信息存在高度不确定性且属性相对重要性仅能以优先级关系来表征。为此,本文首先提出了双边犹豫模糊非均衡语言集这种新型信息形式以使决策者能够灵活有效的表征复杂评价信息,并定义了运算法则、熵和距离测度;其次,基于熵测度开发了双边犹豫模糊非均衡语言优先加权集成算子,并构建了能够考虑属性优先关系的多属性决策方法;进一步针对属性相对重要性不能由定性分析获得的情况,设计了客观权重确定方法,并构建了另一种更具实际灵活性的VIKOR决策方法;最后,实例研究表明了方法的有效性与优势。     

Estimating the population utility function: A parametric Bayesian approach

In this paper we consider the health utility index mark II for quantifying and describing a population’s health related quality of life over health states composed of multiple attributes. This measure can be used for various purposes such as evaluating the severity of the effect of a disease or comparing different treatment methods. We present a Bayesian framework for population utility estimation and health policy evaluation by introducing a probabilistic interpretation of the multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) used in health economics. In doing so, our approach combines ideas from the MAUT and Bayesian statistics and provides an alternative method of modeling preferences and utility estimation.     

A generalized decomposable multiattribute utility function

In this paper a generalized decomposable multiattribute utility function (MAUF) is developed. It is demonstrated that this new MAUF structure is more general than other well-known MAUF structures, such as additive, multiplicative, and multilinear. Therefore, it is more flexible and does not require that the decision maker be consistent with restrictive assumptions such as preferential independence conditions about his/her preferences. We demonstrate that this structure does not require any underlying assumption and hence solves the interdependence among attributes. Hence there is no need for verification of its structure. Several useful extensions and properties for this generalized decomposable MAUF are developed which simplify its structure or assessment. The concept of utility efficiency is developed to identify efficient alternatives when there exists partial information on the scaling constants of an assumed MAUF. It is assumed that the structure (decomposition) of the MAUF is known and the partial information about the scaling constants of the decision maker is in the form of bounds or constraints. For the generalized decomposable structure, linear programming is sufficient to solve all ensuing problems. Some examples are provided.     

考虑多元关联关系和语义变换的直觉不确定语言多属性决策方法

针对属性值为直觉不确定语言变量的多属性决策问题,提出一种不仅可以捕获属性间的多元关联关系并且能够满足决策者不同语义转换需求的多属性决策方法。首先,考虑已有运算法则缺少封闭性和灵活性,结合语言刻度函数,提出一种新的直觉不确定语言变量运算法则和排序方法。其次,根据新的运算法则,提出可以捕获属性间多元关联关系的直觉不确定语言Hamy平均及其加权形式,并对新算子的优良性质和特例进行了探讨和分析。进而,提出一种新的多属性决策方法。最后,通过算例和对比分析验证了该方法的有效性和优越性。     

多属性决策中权系数确定的区间调整法

权系数的确定是多属性决策中的一个关键问题，目前常用的方法都要利用专家判断矩阵。然而在实际操作中矩阵的元素往往受到各种因素的影响，产生一定的不确定性。本文利用区间方法来研究这种影响，对原有的模型进行推广，并提出一种有效的算法。对类似问题的解决，提供了一种新的思路。     

Aggregation of utility-based individual preferences for group decision-making

Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) elicits an individual decision maker’s preferences for single attributes and develops a utility function by mathematics formulation to add up the preferences of the entire set of attributes when assessing alternatives. A common aggregation method of MAUT for group decisions is the simple additive weighting (SAW) method, which does not consider the different preferential levels and preferential ranks for individual decision makers’ assessments of alternatives in a decision group, and thus seems too intuitive in achieving the consensus and commitment for group decision aggregation. In this paper, the preferential differences denoting the preference degrees among different alternatives and preferential priorities denoting the favorite ranking of the alternatives for each decision maker are both considered and aggregated to construct the utility discriminative values for assessing alternatives in a decision group. A comparative analysis is performed to compare the proposed approach to the SAW model, and a satisfaction index is used to investigate the satisfaction levels of the final two resulting group decisions. In addition, a feedback interview is conducted to understand the subjective perceptions of decision makers while examining the results obtained from these two approaches for the second practical case. Both investigation results show that the proposed approach is able to achieve a more satisfying and agreeable group decision than that of the SAW method.