Malliavin Greeks without Malliavin calculus

We derive and analyze Monte Carlo estimators of price sensitivities (“Greeks”) for contingent claims priced in a diffusion model. There have traditionally been two categories of methods for estimating sensitivities: methods that differentiate paths and methods that differentiate densities. A more recent line of work derives estimators through Malliavin calculus. The purpose of this article is to investigate connections between Malliavin estimators and the more traditional and elementary pathwise method and likelihood ratio method. Malliavin estimators have been derived directly for diffusion processes, but implementation typically requires simulation of a discrete-time approximation. This raises the question of whether one should discretize first and then differentiate, or differentiate first and then discretize. We show that in several important cases the first route leads to the same estimators as are found through Malliavin calculus, but using only elementary techniques. Time-averaging of multiple estimators emerges as a key feature in achieving convergence to the continuous-time limit.     

Monte Carlo optimization

Monte Carlo optimization techniques for solving mathematical programming problems have been the focus of some debate. This note reviews the debate and puts these stochastic methods in their proper perspective.     

Optimally thresholded realized power variations for Lévy jump diffusion models

Thresholded Realized Power Variations (TPVs) are one of the most popular nonparametric estimators for general continuous-time processes with a wide range of applications. In spite of their popularity, a common drawback lies in the necessity of choosing a suitable threshold for the estimator, an issue which so far has mostly been addressed by heuristic selection methods. To address this important issue, we propose an objective selection method based on desirable optimality properties of the estimators. Concretely, we develop a well-posed optimization problem which, for a fixed sample size and time horizon, selects a threshold that minimizes the expected total number of jump misclassifications committed by the thresholding mechanism associated with these estimators. We analytically solve the optimization problem under mild regularity conditions on the density of the underlying jump distribution, allowing us to provide an explicit infill asymptotic characterization of the resulting optimal thresholding sequence at a fixed time horizon. The leading term of the optimal threshold sequence is shown to be proportional to Lévy’s modulus of continuity of the underlying Brownian motion, hence theoretically justifying and sharpening selection methods previously proposed in the literature based on power functions or multiple testing procedures. Furthermore, building on the aforementioned asymptotic characterization, we develop an estimation algorithm, which allows for a feasible implementation of the newfound optimal sequence. Simulations demonstrate the improved finite sample performance offered by optimal TPV estimators in comparison to other popular non-optimal alternatives.     

High resolution quantization and entropy coding of jump processes

We study the quantization problem for certain types of jump processes. The probabilities for the number of jumps are assumed to be bounded by Poisson weights. Otherwise, jump positions and increments can be rather generally distributed and correlated. We show in particular that in many cases entropy coding error and quantization error have distinct rates. Finally, we investigate the quantization problem for the special case of R^d${\mathbb{R}}^d$-valued compound Poisson processes.     

Useful Monte Carlo optimization

This contribution to the debate on Monte Carlo optimization methods shows that there exist techniques that may be useful in many technical applications.     

Canonical Lévy process and Malliavin calculus

A suitable canonical Lévy process is constructed in order to study a Malliavin calculus based on a chaotic representation property of Lévy processes proved by Itô using multiple two-parameter integrals. In this setup, the two-parameter derivative _Dt,x$D_{t,x}$ is studied, depending on whether x=0$x=0$ or x≠0$x\ne 0$; in the first case, we prove a chain rule; in the second case, a formula by trajectories.     

Dynamically Rescaled Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian Hierarchical Models

Dynamically rescaled Hamiltonian Monte Carlo is introduced as a computationally fast and easily implemented method for performing full Bayesian analysis in hierarchical statistical models. The method relies on introducing a modified parameterization so that the reparameterized target distribution has close to constant scaling properties, and thus is easily sampled using standard (Euclidian metric) Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. Provided that the parameterizations of the conditional distributions specifying the hierarchical model are “constant information parameterizations” (CIPs), the relation between the modified- and original parameterization is bijective, explicitly computed, and admit exploitation of sparsity in the numerical linear algebra involved. CIPs for a large catalogue of statistical models are presented, and from the catalogue, it is clear that many CIPs are currently routinely used in statistical computing. A relation between the proposed methodology and a class of explicitly integrated Riemann manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods is discussed. The methodology is illustrated on several example models, including a model for inflation rates with multiple levels of nonlinearly dependent latent variables. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Asymptotics of an Efficient Monte Carlo Estimation for the Transition Density of Diffusion Processes

Discretized simulation is widely used to approximate the transition density of discretely observed diffusions. A recently proposed importance sampler, namely modified Brownian bridge, has gained much attention for its high efficiency relative to other samplers. It is unclear for this sampler, however, how to balance the trade-off between the number of imputed values and the number of Monte Carlo simulations under a given computing resource. This paper provides an asymptotically efficient allocation of computing resource to the importance sampling approach with a modified Brownian bridge as importance sampler. The optimal trade-off is established by investigating two types of errors: Euler discretization error and Monte Carlo error. The main results are illustrated with two simulated examples.      

Multilevel Monte Carlo in approximate Bayesian computation

In the following article, we consider approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference. We introduce a method for numerically approximating ABC posteriors using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). A sequential Monte Carlo version of the approach is developed and it is shown under some assumptions that for a given level of mean square error, this method for ABC has a lower cost than i.i.d. sampling from the most accurate ABC approximation. Several numerical examples are given.     

Brownian Processes for Monte Carlo Integration on Compact Lie Groups

This article proposes a Monte Carlo approach for the evaluation of integrals of smooth functions defined on compact Lie groups. The approach is based on the ergodic property of Brownian processes in compact Lie groups. The article provides an elementary proof of this property and obtains the following results. It gives the rate of almost sure convergence of time averages along with a “large deviations” type upper bound and a central limit theorem. It derives probability of error bounds for uniform approximation of the paths of Brownian processes using two numerical schemes. Finally, it describes generalization to compact Riemannian manifolds.     

Adaptive nonparametric estimation for Lévy processes observed at low frequency

This article deals with adaptive nonparametric estimation for Lévy processes observed at low frequency. For general linear functionals of the Lévy measure, we construct kernel estimators, provide upper risk bounds and derive rates of convergence under regularity assumptions.     

Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Option Pricing

In this article, we provide a review and development of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for option pricing. SMC are a class of Monte Carlo-based algorithms, that are designed to approximate expectations w.r.t a sequence of related probability measures. These approaches have been used successfully for a wide class of applications in engineering, statistics, physics, and operations research. SMC methods are highly suited to many option pricing problems and sensitivity/Greek calculations due to the nature of the sequential simulation. However, it is seldom the case that such ideas are explicitly used in the option pricing literature. This article provides an up-to-date review of SMC methods, which are appropriate for option pricing. In addition, it is illustrated how a number of existing approaches for option pricing can be enhanced via SMC. Specifically, when pricing the arithmetic Asian option w.r.t a complex stochastic volatility model, it is shown that SMC methods provide additional strategies to improve estimation.     

Noisy Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Doubly Intractable Distributions

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has been progressively incorporated within the statistician’s toolbox as an alternative sampling method in settings when standard Metropolis–Hastings is inefficient. HMC generates a Markov chain on an augmented state space with transitions based on a deterministic differential flow derived from Hamiltonian mechanics. In practice, the evolution of Hamiltonian systems cannot be solved analytically, requiring numerical integration schemes. Under numerical integration, the resulting approximate solution no longer preserves the measure of the target distribution, therefore an accept–reject step is used to correct the bias. For doubly intractable distributions—such as posterior distributions based on Gibbs random fields—HMC suffers from some computational difficulties: computation of gradients in the differential flow and computation of the accept–reject proposals poses difficulty. In this article, we study the behavior of HMC when these quantities are replaced by Monte Carlo estimates. Supplemental codes for implementing methods used in the article are available online.     

An adaptive Monte Carlo algorithm for computing mixed logit estimators

Researchers and analysts are increasingly using mixed logit models for estimating responses to forecast demand and to determine the factors that affect individual choices. However the numerical cost associated to their evaluation can be prohibitive, the inherent probability choices being represented by multidimensional integrals. This cost remains high even if Monte Carlo or quasi-Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate those integrals. This paper describes a new algorithm that uses Monte Carlo approximations in the context of modern trust-region techniques, but also exploits accuracy and bias estimators to considerably increase its computational efficiency. Numerical experiments underline the importance of the choice of an appropriate optimisation technique and indicate that the proposed algorithm allows substantial gains in time while delivering more information to the practitioner. Fabian Bastin: Research Fellow of the National Fund for Scientific Research (FNRS)     

Perturbation bounds for Monte Carlo within Metropolis via restricted approximations

The Monte Carlo within Metropolis (MCwM) algorithm, interpreted as a perturbed Metropolis–Hastings (MH) algorithm, provides an approach for approximate sampling when the target distribution is intractable. Assuming the unperturbed Markov chain is geometrically ergodic, we show explicit estimates of the difference between the $n$th step distributions of the perturbed MCwM and the unperturbed MH chains. These bounds are based on novel perturbation results for Markov chains which are of interest beyond the MCwM setting. To apply the bounds, we need to control the difference between the transition probabilities of the two chains and to verify stability of the perturbed chain.     

Unbiased multi-index Monte Carlo

We introduce a new class of Monte Carlo-based approximations of expectations of random variables such that their laws are only available via certain discretizations. Sampling from the discretized versions of these laws can typically introduce a bias. In this paper, we show how to remove that bias, by introducing a new version of multi-index Monte Carlo (MIMC) that has the added advantage of reducing the computational effort, relative to i.i.d. sampling from the most precise discretization, for a given level of error. We cover extensions of results regarding variance and optimality criteria for the new approach. We apply the methodology to the problem of computing an unbiased mollified version of the solution of a partial differential equation with random coefficients. A second application concerns the Bayesian inference (the smoothing problem) of an infinite-dimensional signal modeled by the solution of a stochastic partial differential equation that is observed on a discrete space grid and at discrete times. Both applications are complemented by numerical simulations.     

Monte Carlo EM加速算法

EM算法是近年来常用的求后验众数的估计的一种数据增广算法, 但由于求出其E步中积分的显示表达式有时很困难, 甚至不可能, 限制了其应用的广泛性. 而Monte Carlo EM算法很好地解决了这个问题, 将EM算法中E步的积分用Monte Carlo模拟来有效实现, 使其适用性大大增强. 但无论是EM算法, 还是Monte Carlo EM算法, 其收敛速度都是线性的, 被缺损信息的倒数所控制, 当缺损数据的比例很高时, 收敛速度就非常缓慢. 而Newton-Raphson算法在后验众数的附近具有二次收敛速率. 本文提出Monte Carlo EM加速算法, 将Monte Carlo EM算法与Newton-Raphson算法结合, 既使得EM算法中的E步用Monte Carlo模拟得以实现, 又证明了该算法在后验众数附近具有二次收敛速度. 从而使其保留了Monte Carlo EM算法的优点, 并改进了Monte Carlo EM算法的收敛速度. 本文通过数值例子, 将Monte Carlo EM加速算法的结果与EM算法、Monte Carlo EM算法的结果进行比较, 进一步说明了Monte Carlo EM加速算法的优良性.     

The Segal-Bargmann transform for Lévy white noise functionals associated with non-integrable Lévy processes

By using a method of truncation, we derive the closed form of the Segal-Bargmann transform of Lévy white noise functionals associated with a Lévy process with the Lévy spectrum without the moment condition. Besides, a sufficient and necessary condition to the existence of Lévy stochastic integrals is obtained.     

The ergodicity of stochastic generalized porous media equations with lévy jump

In this article,we first prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution to the stochastic generalized porous medium equation perturbed by Lévy process,and then show the exponential convergence of(pt)t≥0 to equilibrium uniform on any bounded subset in H.