不完全市场下基于对数效用的动态投资组合

应用鞅方法研究不完全市场下的动态投资组合优化问题。首先,通过降低布朗运动的维数将不完全金融市场转化为完全金融市场,并在转化后的完全金融市场里应用鞅方法研究对数效用函数下的动态投资组合问题,得到了最优投资策略的显示表达式。然后,根据转化后的完全金融市场与原不完全金融市场之间的参数关系,得到原不完全金融市场下的最优投资策略。算例分析比较了不完全金融市场与转化后的完全金融市场下最优投资策略的变化趋势,并与幂效用、指数效用下最优投资策略的变化趋势做了比较。     

Optimal investment in a defaultable bond

The present paper analyzes the optimal investment strategy in a defaultable (corporate) bond and a money market account in a continuous time model. Due to jumps in the bond price our market model is incomplete. The treatment of information on the firm’s asset value is based on an approach unifying the structural model and the reduced-form model. Specifically, the asset value will be assumed to be observable only at finitely many time points before the maturity of the bond. The optimal investment process will be worked out first for a short time-horizon with a general risk-averse utility function, then a multi-period optimal strategy with logarithmic and power utility will be presented using backward induction. The optimal investment strategy is analyzed numerically for the logarithmic utility.     

幂效用函数理论下的欧式期权定价

研究在不完全信息情况下,代理人根据自己的风险偏好建立效用函数理论,在幂效用函数下寻找资产的均衡价格和无风险折现因子,并在此基础上给出幂效用函数理论下的均衡的欧式期权定价公式.     

The utility efficient set and its interactive reduction

We assume a decision situation under risk with incomplete information on preferences modelled as a vector utility function. We consider an additive aggregation of its components and partial information on the scaling constants. We develop the concept of utility efficiency to identify efficient strategies in discrete problems when the information about the scaling constants of the decision maker is in the form of a polyhedral cone. A characterization of the utility efficient set provides a practical way to compute such efficient strategies. We then discuss an interactive method based on the assessment of the scaling constants via an interactive paired comparison with its convergence. The method is complemented by a procedure to reduce the utility efficient set to aid in the process of reaching a final strategy.     

Additive habit formation: consumption in incomplete markets with random endowments

We provide a detailed characterization of the optimal consumption stream for the additive habit-forming utility maximization problem, in a framework of general discrete-time incomplete markets and random endowments. This characterization allows us to derive the monotonicity and concavity of the optimal consumption as a function of wealth, for several important classes of incomplete markets and preferences. These results yield a deeper understanding of the fine structure of the optimal consumption and provide a further theoretical support for the classical conjectures of Keynes (The general theory of employment, interest and money. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1936).     

Event risk, contingent claims and the temporal resolution of uncertainty

We study the pricing and hedging of contingent claims that are subject to Event Risk which we define as rare and unpredictable events whose occurrence may be correlated to, but cannot be hedged perfectly with standard marketed instruments. The super-replication costs of such event sensitive contingent claims (ESCC), in general, provide little guidance for the pricing of these claims. Instead, we study utility based prices under two scenarios of resolution of uncertainty for event risk: when the event is continuously monitored, or when it is revealed only at the payment date. In both cases, we transform the incomplete market optimal portfolio choice problem of an agent endowed with an ESCC into a complete market problem with a state and possibly path-dependent utility function. For negative exponential utility, we obtain an explicit representation of the utility based prices under both information resolution scenarios and this in turn leads us to a simple characterization of the early resolution premium. For constant relative risk aversion utility functions we propose a simple numerical scheme and study the impact of size of the position, wealth and expected return on these prices.     

基于证据推理的不完全信息决策方法研究及应用

提出了一种基于证据推理和优化模型的不完全信息决策方法。针对专家认知偏好的多样性以及决策问题的复杂性特点,提出了一类评价指标不尽相同的不完全信息决策问题;运用证据理论中的基本信度分配来描述专家意见,给出了此类问题的信度函数、似真度函数、合成法则和不同专家贡献度的定义,计算了各个指标的基本信度分配值;从最大程度保持专家原始判断偏好的角度,建立了指标权重确定的优化模型;文后以商用飞机成本管控风险的重要性评价为例,说明了方法的应用步骤和有效性。     

Uncertain agency models with multi-dimensional incomplete information based on confidence level

This paper discusses a principal–agent problem with multi-dimensional incomplete information between a principal and an agent. Firstly, how to describe the incomplete information in such agency problem is a challenging issue. This paper characterizes the incomplete information by uncertain variable, because it has been an appropriate tool to depict subjective assessment and model human uncertainty. Secondly, the relevant literature often used expected-utility-maximization to measure the two participators’ goals. However, Ellsberg paradox indicates that expected utility criterion is not always appropriate to be regarded as decision rule. For this reason, this paper presents another decision rule based on confidence level. Instead of expected-utility-maximization, the principal’s aim is to maximize his potential income under the acceptable confidence level, and the agent’s aim depends on whether he has private information about his efforts. According to the agent’s different decision rules, three classes of uncertain agency (UA) models and their respective optimal contracts are presented. Finally, a portfolio selection problem is studied to demonstrate the modeling idea and the viability of the proposed UA models.     

基于证据推理的动态联盟伙伴选择优化模型

讨论了定性和定量相结合选择动态联盟伙伴的问题，针对权系数信息不完全和指标值不确定提出了一种基于证据推理的优化模型。该模型首先通过证据推理算法将方案的指标值集结，然后将效用值集结，结合不完全信息的权系数建立非线性规划模型，设计了遗传算法来求解，从而选出最满意的伙伴。最后以实例表明该模型的有效性。     

Cooperative games with imcomplete information

A bargaining solution concept which generalizes the Nash bargaining solution and the Shapley NTU value is defined for cooperative games with incomplete information. These bargaining solutions are efficient and equitable when interpersonal comparisons are made in terms of certainvirtual utility scales. A player's virtual utility differs from his real utility by exaggerating the difference from the preferences of false types that jeopardize his true type. In any incentive-efficient mechanism, the players always maximize their total virtual utility ex post. Conditionally-transferable virtual utility is the strongest possible transferability assumption for games with incomplete information.     

Power Utility Maximization Problems Under Partial Information and Information Sufficiency in a Brownian Setting

We consider the problem of expected power utility maximization from terminal wealth in diffusion market models under partial information. After obtaining novel neat expressions for the value-process and for the optimal strategy, the issue of information sufficiency is addressed. In particular, necessary and sufficient conditions that guarantee that the partial information optimal strategy is still optimal when having access to all market information, are provided.     

Optimal investment under partial information

We consider the problem of maximizing terminal utility in a model where asset prices are driven by Wiener processes, but where the various rates of returns are allowed to be arbitrary semimartingales. The only information available to the investor is the one generated by the asset prices and, in particular, the return processes cannot be observed directly. This leads to an optimal control problem under partial information and for the cases of power, log, and exponential utility we manage to provide a surprisingly explicit representation of the optimal terminal wealth as well as of the optimal portfolio strategy. This is done without any assumptions about the dynamical structure of the return processes. We also show how various explicit results in the existing literature are derived as special cases of the general theory.     

具边信息的最优效用及其影响

利用测度变换及随机滤波考察了$Q$\,-鞅$\{\wt{\Lambda}_t:=\ep^Q[\Lambda_T|{\cal G}_t]\}$的分解. 然后利用这种分解考察了受随机因素影响的股票价格模型中投资者存在边信息和不存在边信息时的效用问题, 给出了最优效用的一种形式, 从而证明了边信息的影响有限.     

On evolution of an information dynamic system and its generating operator

States of a dynamical information system can be represented by points on a statistical manifold—a subset of a vector space endowed with an information topology. An evolution of such a system is considered here with respect to changes in information rather than changes in time, because differences between states are represented by an information distance. Here we consider an optimal system maximizing a utility of an abstract information resource, and then analyze properties of information such that an optimal system is described by an evolution operator or a semigroup. The latter is generated by an operator that can be interpreted as a utility, payoff or a fitness function. We discuss the advantages and applications of the proposed approach.     

Multiutility representations for incomplete difference preorders

A difference preorder is a (possibly incomplete) preorder on a space of state changes (rather than the states themselves); it encodes information about preference intensity, in addition to ordinal preferences. We find necessary and sufficient conditions for a difference preorder to be representable by a family of cardinal utility functions which take values in linearly ordered abelian groups. We also discuss the sense in which this cardinal utility representation is unique up to affine transformations, and under what conditions it is real-valued. This has applications to interpersonal comparisons, social welfare, and decisions under uncertainty.     

不完全信息和模糊厌恶下DC型养老金最优投资策略

在信息部分可观测的金融市场中,参与者可投资于一个无风险资产、一个滚动债券和一支股票。其中,股票的预期收益率由一个服从均值-回复过程的预测因子预测。参与者是模糊厌恶的,只能观测到股票价格和利率,却无法观测到预测因子。利用滤波技术和动态规划原理,得到了不完全信息和模糊厌恶下DC型养老金最优投资策略的解析式。进一步,利用敏感性分析和比较静态分析,对比仅考虑不完全信息、仅考虑模糊厌恶以及同时考虑不完全信息和模糊厌恶三种情形下的最优投资策略。结果表明同时考虑不完全信息和模糊厌恶时的最优投资策略最保守,仅考虑不完全信息时的最优投资策略对风险厌恶系数的变化最敏感。     

基于指数效用无差异价值过程的不完备市场下的可违约期权的定价模型

本文研究不完备市场情况下的可违约期权的动态指数效用无差异定价。不同于大多数的可违约期权定价文献,本文没有假定鞅的不变性,即通常的H 假设,而是通过信息流的扩张和测度的变换,将信用风险敏感的资产转换为一个G 局部鞅,其后引入一个具体的倒向随机微分方程（BSDE）,并证明该方程解的存在性与唯一性;然后利用无差异价值过程C_t（B,α）在最小熵鞅测度下对一般的投资策略为上鞅,而在最优投资策略下为鞅的事实,证明无差异价值过程C_t（B,α）就是BSDE 的解,从而给出可违约期权的定价。     

Optimal recovery of integral operators and its applications

In this paper we present the solution to a problem of recovering a rather arbitrary integral operator based on incomplete information with error. We apply the main result to obtain optimal methods of recovery and compute the optimal error for the solutions to certain integral equations as well as boundary and initial value problems for various PDE’s.     

Duality and markovian strategies

We introduce the dual of a stochastic game with incomplete information on one side, and we deduce some properties of optimal strategies of the uninformed player. Received December 1996/Revised version December 1997