Modelling heterogeneity in a manpower system: a review

Manpower planning is an essential methodology for business and industry; it allows managers to make more efficient use of human resources. However, human behaviour is highly variable and it is therefore essential for manpower planning that population heterogeneity is successfully modelled. In this paper we review methods of incorporating population heterogeneity into manpower modelling. The analysis of differentials in a manpower system is emphasized since they are a source of aggregation error in stochastic models. Two strategies have been stressed, the use of observable sources of heterogeneity as they affect wastage, and the latent sources which cannot be identified precisely but are known to affect the key parameters of most models. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Behavioural modelling of career progression in the European Commission

Though manpower planning models have been part of OR for many years, and simulation has always been acknowledged as a potential approach, there are few reported applications of its use. In this case-based study we report on a micro-simulation model that exploits the structure of the European Commission’s appraisal and promotion rules, and includes regression-based sampling schemes which allow for non-Normal error terms to represent behavioural factors that led to the need for a new system. With a suitably parsimonious formulation the 20,000 person model runs very effectively, and the transparency associated with simulation proves an important factor in the successful use of the model as the basis for designing a promotion box system that was implemented across the Commission in 2009. The simulation modelling incorporates many Markov-type elements, and we reflect on important lessons learned from this combined use of micro-simulation and Markov-based approaches to manpower modelling.     

Optimal recruitment strategies in a multi-level manpower planning model

Markov manpower planning models have extensively been analysed in the past in order to find an optimal personnel strategy for which the stocks of the manpower system evolve towards desirable ones. So far, those models do not take into account interactions among different organizational decision levels. In this paper, a multi-level manpower planning model is presented that considers, besides the desirable stock vector at overall level, proposals for the departmental stocks from lower organizational levels. Attainability of the stock vectors at departmental level is examined under control by recruitment and interdepartmental transitions. A multi-level optimization algorithm is presented to determine an optimal recruitment strategy resulting in attainable and acceptable stocks that are a compromise between the proposal from the top and the proposals from the departments.     

A Survey of Manpower Planning Models and Their Application

Since the late 1950s, much work has been done on developing models of manpower systems which may be used for the purposes of planning. Many organizations have made successful use of such models, but in spite of these successes, manpower planning models are only gradually coming into widespread use. The aim of this paper is to review the models which have been developed, concentrating on their assumptions and applications rather than on mathematical or statistical details. A common theme of successful applications is that good presentation of results and ease of use are more important to users than theoretical sophistication.     

A model for promotion rate control in hierarchical manpower systems

In optimization models of hierarchical manpower systems, thenumbers promoted from each of the grades in a time period arenormally considered as decision variables. As a result, promotionrates, defined in terms of the proportions of staff promoted,can vary substantially from period to period in these models.Policies of this type may be unacceptable in practice becauseof their adverse impact on staff morale. In this paper, a mixedinteger programming (MIP) manpower planning model is developedfor determining minimum-cost manpower policies in which promotionrates remain stable while satisfying specified manpower requirementsover the planning period. In this MIP model, promotion ratesare considered as decision variables by using binary variables,and the model is solved by using an iterative procedure. Theuse of the approach is illustrated with representative datafor a military system.     

Tactical Manpower Planning via Programming Under Uncertainty

This paper presents models for different types of manpower pooling policies. A multi-grade manpower system with mutually exclusive skills is considered. The work load imposed is a random variable characterized by the known joint distribution of the number of jobs to be performed and of the time to do a job. The basic models are developed as a tool for manpower planning in the jobbing workshops of an oil company. The resulting "two-stage programmes under uncertainty" are shown to reduce to mixed-integer linear programmes. The models are then generalized to permit their use in a larger class of manpower planning problems.     

On the Asymptotic Behaviour of Age Distributions in Manpower Systems

The literature on supply models for manpower planning shows that an important consideration is the size of the discrepancy between the age or length of service distribution of the population and the age distribution which would be reached if present policies were continued indefinitely. In the present paper we study the asymptotic behaviour of the age distribution in any manpower system. An application to a decision problem in a university system is given.     

Using phase-type models to cost stroke patient care across health,social and community services

Stroke disease places a heavy burden on society, incurring long periods of time in hospital and community care, and associated costs. Also stroke is a highly complex disease with diverse outcomes and multiple strategies for therapy and care. Previously a modeling framework has been developed which clusters patients into classes with respect to their length of stay (LOS) in hospital. Phase-type models were then used to describe patient flows for each cluster. Also multiple outcomes, such as discharge to normal residence, nursing home, or death can be permitted. We here add costs to this model and obtain the Moment Generating Function for the total cost of a system consisting of multiple transient phase-type classes with multiple absorbing states. This system represents different classes of patients in different hospital and community services states. Based on stroke patients’ data from the Belfast City Hospital, various scenarios are explored with a focus on comparing the cost of thrombolysis treatment under different regimes. The overall modeling framework characterizes the behavior of stroke patient populations, with a focus on integrated system-wide costing and planning, encompassing hospital and community services. Within this general framework we have developed models which take account of patient heterogeneity and multiple care options. Such complex strategies depend crucially on developing a deep engagement with the health care professionals and underpinning the models with detailed patient-specific data.     

Cost Comparisons for Out-of-Phase Inventory Models

Inventory costs for a fixed time period have traditionally been determined by allocating total costs per cycle uniformly throughout that cycle as well as any partial cycles. This procedure for cost allocation has led to the solution of numerous inventory problems, most notable of which is the anticipated price-increase model. When comparing two out-of-phase inventory models, if costs are accounted for when they occur over a fixed planning horizon, inventory policies should be changed to reflect the impact of this different cost-allocation procedure. For the anticipated price-increase model, the ‘optimal’ order quantity as well as the implied savings in inventory costs will be different when cost models are developed based on these different cost-allocation methods. If the objective is to maximize over a fixed planning horizon the actual savings in inventory costs as they occur, the cost models presented here should be used.     

Stochastic models for air cargo terminal manpower supply planning in long‐term operations

In this research, based on two deterministic‐demand planning models, we established two long‐term stochastic‐demand planning models by incorporating the stochastic disturbances of manpower demands that occur in actual operations. The models are formulated as mixed integer linear programs that are solved using a mathematical programming solver. To compare the performance of the two stochastic‐demand and two deterministic‐demand planning models under the stochastic demands that occur in actual operations, we further develop a simulation‐based evaluation method. Finally, we perform numerical tests using real operating data from a Taiwan air cargo terminal. The preliminary results show that the stochastic models could be useful for planning air cargo terminal manpower supply. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling recruitment training in mathematical human resource planning

This paper deals with mathematical human resource planning; more specifically, it suggests a new model for a manpower‐planning system. In general, we study a k‐classed hierarchical system where the workforce demand at each time period is satisfied through internal mobility and recruitment. The motivation for this work is based on various European Union incentives, which promote regional or local government assistance programs that could be exploited by firms not only for hiring and training newcomers, but also to improve the skills and knowledge of their existing personnel. In this respect, in our augmented mobility model we establish a new ‘training/standby’ class, which serves as a manpower inventory position for potential recruits. This class, which may very well be internal or external to the system, is incorporated into the framework of a non‐homogeneous Markov chain model. Furthermore, cost objectives are employed using the goal‐programming approach, under different operating assumptions, in order to minimize the operational cost in the presence of system's constraints and regulations. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic optimal control of internal hierarchical labor markets

This paper develops an optimal control model for a graded manpower system where the demand for manpower is uncertain. The organization's objective is to minimize the discounted costs of operating the manpower system, including excess demand costs. The stock of workers in various grades can be adjusted in two ways. The first method is outside hiring flows, which is the usual control variable used in previous research. The second method is to control the transition rates between grades of the hierarchy, an instrument not previously studied. Incorporating the transition rates into the control variables creates time lags in the control process. The resulting problem is solved numerically using an approximation for the time-lagged control variables. The numerical example is based on the Air Force officer hierarchy. The model is used to examine such issues as the desirability of granting tenure to workers who are not promoted to the highest grade and the effects of length-of-service and demand uncertainty on manpower policy.     

Corporate manpower planning

In this paper the necessity of corporate manpower planning is discussed and the growing interest in it within many organizations. In particular medium and long term forecasting in rather large and structured organizations are explained and the need for tools to get a survey of the evolution of their personnel strength. These tools should help management and staff-members of a planning or personnel department to design alternative policies concerning promotions, recruitments, etc.We will present a planning method which satisfies these requirements. The interactive manpower planning system FORMASY presents forecasts concerning the evolution of the personnel strength and makes it possible to assess the impacts of alternative policies. This planning system is based on a Markov model and is being used on a general purpose computer in several Dutch organizations, both industrial and governmental.FORMASY has proved its value for practical manpower planning which will be explained by means of a case-study with the Royal Dutch Airforce.     

Corporate manpower planning: a review of models

Manpower planning has achieved maturity during the past decade. Personnel practitioners have become conversant with the analysis of manpower systems, the use of quantitative techniques, and have developed a sound approach to the whole question of manpower management. But, whilst they no longer rely on the management scientist for using those models and other techniques now widely available, there is a continued contribution to be made in advancing the field. This paper reviews the practical relecance of existing models. It concentrates on techniques for evaluating manpower supply and career management problems, distinguishing especially between the roles played by exploratory and normative models. The author hopes that this article will give management scientists a realistic appraisal of current practice and provide pointers as to where developments are most needed.     

Where to treat the older patient? Can Markov models help us better understand the relationship between hospital and community care?

We have previously used Markov models to describe movements of patients between hospital states; these may be actual or virtual and described by a phase-type distribution. Here we extend this approach to a Markov reward model for a healthcare system with Poisson admissions and an absorbing state, typically death. The distribution of costs is evaluated for any time and expressions derived for the mean and variances of costs. The average cost at any time is then determined for two scenarios: the Therapeutic and Prosthetic models, respectively. This example is used to illustrate the idea that keeping acute patients longer in hospital to ensure fitness for discharge, may reduce costs by decreasing the number of patients that become long-stay. In addition we develop a Markov Reward Model for a healthcare system including states, where the patient is in hospital, and states, where the patient is in the community. In each case, the length of stay is described by a phase-type distribution, thus enabling the representation of durations and costs in each phase within a Markov framework. The model can be used to determine costs for the entire system thus facilitating a systems approach to the planning of healthcare and a holistic approach to costing. Such models help us to assess the complex relationship between hospital and community care.     

A stochastic manpower planning model under varying class sizes

Solution related to different types of manpower planning problems arising in different industries and organizations are very much helpful for proper planning and implementation of different objectives. Previously those type of problems are mostly solved under the deterministic set up. Gradually several scientists have developed different types of stochastic models appropriate for solving such types of problems. The present study is an attempt to develop a stochastic manpower planning model under the set up where the classes are of varying sizes and promotion occurs only on the basis of seniority. The work of second author was supported by a research fellowship from Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (Sanction No. 9/28(611)/2003-EMR-I), India.     

Short-term manpower planning for MRT carriage maintenance under mixed deterministic and stochastic demands

The purpose of this research is to develop two manpower supply planning models and a solution algorithm for mass rapid transit carriage maintenance under mixed deterministic and stochastic demands. These models are formulated as mixed integer programs that are characterized as NP-hard. We employ problem decomposition techniques, coupled with the CPLEX mathematical programming solver, to develop an algorithm that is capable of efficiently solving the problems. The models and the method used currently in actual operations are evaluated by a simulation-based evaluation method. Finally, we perform a case study using real operating data from a Taiwan MRT maintenance facility. The preliminary results are good, showing that the models could be useful for planning carriage maintenance manpower supply.     

Energy-aware workload management models for operation cost reduction in data centers

In the last century, the costs of powering datacenters have increased so quickly, that datacenter power bills now dwarf the IT hardware bills. Many large infrastructure programs have been developed in the past few years to reduce the energy consumption of datacenters, especially with respect to cooling requirements. Although these methods are effective in lowering the operation costs they do require large upfront investments. It is therefore not surprising that some datacenters have been unable to utilize the above means and as a result are still struggling with high energy bills. In this work we present a cheap addition to or an alternative to such investments as we propose the use of intelligent, energy efficient, system allocation mechanisms in place of current packaged system schedulers available in modern hardware infrastructure cutting server power costs by 40%. We pursue both the quest for (1) understanding the energy costs generated in operation as well has how to utilize this information to (2) allocate computing tasks efficiently in a cost minimizing optimization approach. We were able to underline the energy savings potential of our models compared to current state-of-the-art schedulers. However, since this allocation problem is complex (NP-hard) we investigated various model approximations in a trade-off between computational complexity and allocative efficiency. As a part of this investigation, we evaluate how changes in system configurations impact the goodness of our results in a full factorial parametric evaluation.     

Tactical level planning in float glass manufacturing with co-production,random yields and substitutable products

We investigate tactical level planning problems in float glass manufacturing. Float glass manufacturing is a process that has some unique properties such as uninterruptible production, random yields, partially controllable co-production compositions, complex relationships in sequencing of products, and substitutable products. Furthermore, changeover times and costs are very high, and production speed depends significantly on the product mix. These characteristics render measurement and management of the production capacity difficult. The motivation for this study is a real life problem faced at Trakya Cam in Turkey. Trakya Cam has multiple geographically separated production facilities. Since transportation of glass is expensive, logistics costs are high. In this paper, we consider multi-site aggregate planning, and color campaign duration and product mix planning. We develop a decision support system based on several mixed integer linear programming models in which production and transportation decisions are made simultaneously. The system has been fully implemented, and has been in use at Trakya Cam since 2005.     

On the equilibrium personnel structure in the presence of vertical and horizontal mobility via multivariate Markov chains

The present paper employs the Multivariate Homogeneous Markov System (MHMS) in the context of Markov manpower planning modelling. The system is regulated by an embedded multivariate Markov process that allows us to distinguish employees’ mobility patterns that take place either within or among the existing divisions (departments) of an organization. The motivation behind this step arises from the generalization of univariate Markov manpower planning models in which the organization is considered a single (probably hierarchical) group and from the fact that departmental mobility is actually common in most realistic establishments. The first part of the paper presents the functional relations of the MHMS governing intra/inter-departmental transitions. Using these functional forms, we proceed by studying the system’s equilibrium behaviour. This asymptotic analysis reveals the inherent tendencies of the system to reach the limiting structures of specific forms and properties under conditions imposed in the long run.