具过度自信零售商的双渠道供应链网络均衡研究

将零售商的过度自信行为纳入双渠道供应链网络均衡模型,研究了由供应商、分销商以及具过度自信行为的零售商构成双渠道供应链网络均衡问题。借助变分不等式以及互补理论,刻画了制造商、分销商以及过度自信零售商的最优行为,并构建了双渠道供应链网络均衡条件。解析分析了市场出现有利信息和不利信息两种情形下,零售商的过度自信行为对其订购决策的影响。最后,数值算例验证上述结论,并借助数值结果分析了零售商的过度自信行为对双渠道网络均衡的影响。     

Dynamic modeling of the power market and analysis of its complex behavior based on a nonlinear complementarity function

In order to accurately simulate the dynamic decision-making behaviors of market participants, a new dynamic model of power markets that considers the constraints of realistic power networks is proposed in this paper. This model is represented by discrete difference equations embedded within the optimization problem of market clearing. Compared with existing dynamic models, the remarkable characteristic of the proposed model is twofold: it accurately reflects the process of market clearing by the Independent System Operator (ISO) while considering the inherent physical characteristics of power networks, i.e., the complex network constraints; and it describes the market condition that the generation and demand sides bid simultaneously. Using a nonlinear complementary function, the complex discrete difference dynamic model is transformed into a set of familiar discrete difference algebraic equations. Then, the complex dynamic behaviors of power markets are quantitatively analyzed. Corresponding to different operating conditions of power network, such as congestion or non-congestion, the Nash equilibrium of power markets and its stability are calculated, and the periodic and even chaotic dynamic behaviors are exhibited when the market parameters are beyond the stability region of the Nash equilibrium.     

Markovian networks in labour markets

In labour theory, equilibrium is described in terms of mean variables, which is limited and can be misleading. In this article, we model the labour market as a closed Markovian network and find the steady state distribution of unemployment and advertised vacancies. We determine the stochastic equilibrium distribution for two different types of matching functions and allow for both unemployed and on the job search. In general cases, where probabilities cannot be analytically computed, we find restrictions that must hold for all matching processes. Our modelling is applicable to most economic markets with frictions.     

由零售商负责回收的多期闭环供应链网络均衡

本文研究了零售商回收模式下多期闭环供应链网络均衡问题。制造商通过零售渠道将产品销售给消费者,以满足消费市场需求,同时消费产生的废旧品由零售商回收返回制造商处进行再制造,通过产品库存和回收废旧品连接相邻规划期。运用变分不等式理论和互补理论,分别刻画了制造市场、零售市场和消费市场的均衡,接着构建了多期闭环供应链网络均衡模型。利用变分不等式的投影收缩算法,对模型进行求解。算例着重分析了废旧品利用率对网络均衡状态和供应链成员利润的影响。结果表明:当制造商的废旧品利用率逐渐增加时,回收量逐渐增加,制造商的利润先减后增,零售商利润一直增加,而供应链总利润一直增加,供应链网络中的最优决策变量主要受到回收量约束的影响。     

Limit pricing under third-degree price discrimination

This paper shows how a multimarket incumbent can use low pre-entry prices for entry deterrence. We consider an incumbent who operates in two independent markets and has private information about his production cost. In one of the markets, there is a potential entrant offering a differentiated product. The most reasonable perfect Bayesian equilibrium is either the least-cost separating equilibrium or the pooling equilibrium where both types of incumbents set the low-cost monopoly prices. This equilibrium may involve a downward distortion in the pre-entry prices of both markets. Our model has interesting implications for antitrust regulation as well as for international trade policy. First, predatory tests based on a single market are inadequate for a multimarket incumbent. Second, a lower price in a foreign market is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the existence of entry deterrence in a foreign market.     

Optimum throughput of a system of product logistics between two markets

A model of a network market with two nodes and perfect competition is analyzed. The equilibrium depending on the throughput capacity of a system of product logistics is determined, and properties of the total welfare function are examined. A method is proposed for finding the optimum throughput capacity of a system of product logistics between two markets from the point of view of the total welfare.     

基于多主体的股市模型不同市场形态下的标度行为

利用理论分析和计算机仿真相结合的方法研究一个随机多主体的股市模型,理论分析得到基础价值均衡、非基础价值均衡、周期和混沌四种市场形态的典型参数设置,基于多主体的计算机仿真产生对应参数的价格序列.对此数据的统计分析发现:股市的所有市场形态都呈现收益率分布和波动时间依赖的标度行为,其中基础价值均衡形态下收益率累积分布指数和波动时间依赖的自相似指数最大,非基础价值均衡形态下两指数最小,周期和混沌形态下居中.     

A two stage stochastic equilibrium model for electricity markets with two way contracts

This paper investigates generators’ strategic behaviors in contract signing in the forward market and power transaction in the electricity spot market. A stochastic equilibrium program with equilibrium constraints (SEPEC) model is proposed to characterize the interaction of generators’ competition in the two markets. The model is an extension of a similar model proposed by Gans et al. (Aust J Manage 23:83–96, 1998) for a duopoly market to an oligopoly market. The main results of the paper concern the structure of a Nash–Cournot equilibrium in the forward-spot market: first, we develop a result on the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium in the spot market for every demand scenario. Then, we show the monotonicity and convexity of each generator’s dispatch quantity in the spot equilibrium by taking it as a function of the forward contracts. Finally, we establish some sufficient conditions for the existence of a local and global Nash equilibrium in the forward-spot markets. Numerical experiments are carried out to illustrate how the proposed SEPEC model can be used to analyze interactions of the markets.     

Open versus closed loop capacity equilibria in electricity markets under perfect and oligopolistic competition

We consider two game-theoretic models of the generation capacity expansion problem in liberalized electricity markets. The first is an open loop equilibrium model, where generation companies simultaneously choose capacities and quantities to maximize their individual profit. The second is a closed loop model, in which companies first choose capacities maximizing their profit anticipating the market equilibrium outcomes in the second stage. The latter problem is an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints. In both models, the intensity of competition among producers in the energy market is frequently represented using conjectural variations. Considering one load period, we show that for any choice of conjectural variations ranging from perfect competition to Cournot, the closed loop equilibrium coincides with the Cournot open loop equilibrium, thereby obtaining a ‘Kreps and Scheinkman’-like result and extending it to arbitrary strategic behavior. When expanding the model framework to multiple load periods, the closed loop equilibria for different conjectural variations can diverge from each other and from open loop equilibria. We also present and analyze alternative conjectured price response models with switching conjectures. Surprisingly, the rank ordering of the closed loop equilibria in terms of consumer surplus and market efficiency (as measured by total social welfare) is ambiguous. Thus, regulatory approaches that force marginal cost-based bidding in spot markets may diminish market efficiency and consumer welfare by dampening incentives for investment. We also show that the closed loop capacity yielded by a conjectured price response second stage competition can be less or equal to the closed loop Cournot capacity, and that the former capacity cannot exceed the latter when there are symmetric agents and two load periods.     

具有产能和价格约束的单产品流网络均衡研究

针对制造商存在产能约束以及需求市场中存在限制性价格上限的情形,研究了由多个相互竞争制造商与面临随机市场需求的多个相互竞争零售商组成的供应链网络均衡问题。运用变分不等式理论,分别刻画了制造商、零售商以及需求市场的最优行为,建立了供应链网络均衡模型。利用求解变分不等式的对数二次逼近的预测校正法设计了网络均衡解的求解算法。结合算例分析了产能约束和限制性价格上限对网络均衡的影响。结果表明:当政府对竞争市场实行限制性价格上限时,将导致需求市场中的商品短缺,并造成制造商和零售商的总利润减少;当存在产能限制时,将导致无价格限制的商品均衡价格更高以及需求市场中商品短缺量更大。     

Knowledge acquisition and revision using neural networks: an application to a cross-national study of brand image perception

A three-tier knowledge management approach is proposed in the context of a cross-national study of car brand and corporate image perceptions. The approach consists of knowledge acquisition, transfer and revision using neural networks. We investigate how knowledge acquired by a neural network from one car market can be exploited and applied in another market. This transferred knowledge is subsequently revised for application in the new market. Knowledge revision is achieved by re-training the neural network. Core knowledge common to both markets is retained while some localized knowledge components are introduced during network re-training. Since the knowledge acquired by a neural network can be expressed as an accurate set of simple rules, we are able to compare the knowledge extracted from one network with the knowledge extracted from another. Comparison of the originally acquired knowledge with the revised knowledge provides us with insights into the commonalities and differences in car brand and corporate perceptions across national markets.     

The comparative statics on asset prices based on bull and bear market measure

For single-period complete financial asset markets with representative investors, we introduce a bull market measure for uncertain state occurrence and its associated ordering between representative investors in markets based on their marginal rate of substitution between equilibrium consumption allocations among possible states. These concepts combine and generalize the likelihood-ratio-dominance relation between probability prospects of state occurrence and the Arrow–Pratt ordering of risk aversion in expected utility settings. By analyzing the comparative statics for bull market effects on equilibrium asset prices, we derive some monotone properties of the risk-free rate and discounted prices of dividend-monotone assets.     

The dynamics of the relationship between spot and futures markets under high and low variance regimes

This investigation is one of the first studies to examine the dynamics of the relationship between spot and futures markets using the Markov‐switching vector error correction model. Three mature stock markets including the U.S. S&P500, the U.K. FTSE100 and the German DAX 30, and two emerging markets including the Brazil Bovespa and the Hungary BSI, are used to test the model, and the differences between the two sets of markets are examined. The empirical findings of this study are consistent with the following notions. First, after filtering out the high variance regime, the futures price is shown to lead the spot price in the price discovery process, as demonstrated by prior studies; conversely, the spot market is more informationally efficient than the futures market under the high variance condition. Second, the price adjustment process triggered by arbitrage trading between spot and futures markets during a high variance state is greater in scale than that based on a low variance state, and the degree of the co‐movement between spot and futures markets is significantly reduced during the high variance state. Third, a crisis condition involved in the high variance state is defined for the two emerging markets, whereas an unusual condition is presented for the three mature markets. Last, the lagged spot–futures price deviations perform as an information variable for the variance‐turning process. However, the portion of the variance‐switching process accounted for by this signal variable is statistically marginal for the three mature markets selected for this study. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

动态供应链网络均衡模型构建与分析

基于单一商品流,考虑了时间变量和库存问题,建立了三层动态供应链网络结构模型.对制造商、零售商和需求市场的多期独立决策行为及其相互作用进行了分析,应用变分不等式构建了各层均衡模型和整个供应链网络均衡模型.最后与相关文献的模型进行了比较.     

Day-to-day evolution of the traffic network with Advanced Traveler Information System

Since the notion of user equilibrium (UE) was proposed by Wardrop [13], it has become a cornerstone for traffic assignment analysis. But, it is not sufficient to only ask whether equilibrium exists or not; it is equally important to ask whether and how the system can achieve equilibrium. Meanwhile, stability is an important performance in the sense that if equilibrium is unsustainable, both the equilibrium and the trajectory are sensitive to disturbances, even a small perturbation will result in the system evolution away from the equilibrium point. These incentive a growing interest in day-to-day dynamics. In this paper, we develop a dynamical system with Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS) and study the stability of the network with ATIS. A simple network is used to simulate the model, and the results show that there exist periodic attractors in the traffic network in some cases (for example, the market penetration level of ATIS is 0.25 and traffic demand is 2 unit). It is found that the logit parameter of the dynamical model and the traffic demand can also affect the stability of the traffic network. More periodic attractors appear in the system when the traffic demand is large and the low logit parameter can delay the appearance of periodic attractors. By simulation, it can be concluded that if the range of the periodic attractors’ domain of the simple network is known, the road pricing based on the range of the attraction domain is effective to alleviate the instability of the system.     

TIMBER MARKETS AND FUEL TREATMENTS IN THE WESTERN U.S.

ABSTRACT. We developed a model of interrelated timber markets in the U.S. West to assess the impacts of large‐scale fuel reduction programs on these markets, and concomitant effects ofthe market on the fuel reduction programs. The linear programming spatial equilibrium model allows interstate and international trade with western Canada and the rest of the world, while accounting for price effects of introducing softwood logs to the market. The model maximizes area treated, given fire regime‐condition class priorities, maximum increases in softwood processing capacity, maximum rates of annual treatments, prohibitions on exports of U.S. and Canadian softwood logs from public lands and a fixed annual treatment budget. Results show that the loss to U.S. private timber producers is less than the gains for timber consumers (mills). States receiving more treatments when spending is not constrained by state proportions include Idaho, Montana, New Mexico and Oregon. When only the wildland‐urban interface is treated, California, Oregon and Washington receive more treatments. Utah and Colorado receive more treatments when low risk stands are included.     

A model of speculative behaviour with a strange attractor

An asset pricing model for a speculative financial market with fundamentalists and chartists is analysed. The model explains bursts of volatility in financial markets, which are not well explained by the traditional finance paradigms. Speculative bubbles arise as a complex non-linear dynamic phenomenon brought about naturally by the dynamic interaction of heterogeneous market participants. Depending on the time lag in the formation of chartists' expectations, the system evolves through several dynamic regimes, finishing in a strange attractor. Chaos provides a self-sustained motion around the rationally expected equilibrium that corresponds to a speculative bubble. In order to explain the role of Chartism, chaotic motion is a very interesting theoretical feature for a speculative financial market model. It provides a complex non-linear dynamic behaviour around the Walrasian equilibrium price produced by deterministic interactions between fundamentalists and chartists. This model could be a link between two opposite views over the behaviour of financial markets: the theorist's literature view that claims the random motion of asset prices, and the chartist's position extensively adopted by market professionals.     

An investigation of stock price dynamics in emerging markets

The emergence of stock markets in former centrally planned economies poses a significant problem to financial economists and policy makers in that price movements in these markets are not well explained by conventional capital theory. The opening of stock markets brings about a new equilibrium value P̂ for the firm. Shares are floated on an estimate of P̂, and buyers of these shares and individuals trading in the secondary market are also obliged to do so on the basis of their estimates of this magnitude. At any time, the market price of the firm's shares then reflects the market's best guess of what its value would be in the new equilibrium, and information on which to calculate estimates become more readily available as the stock market matures. This paper presents a stochastic price model which takes all of these factors into consideration. The model also provides a theoretical foundation underlying the pronounced trends of prices in emerging stock markets, and explains why they appear to be so volatile. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

有效证券市场上证券价格长期波动控制系统的反馈控制

探讨有效证券市场上证券价格长期波动控制系统的反馈控制问题,建立了有效市场条件下证券价格长期波动的控制系统模型.根据系统完全能达的条件,讨论了以股市政策为单控制输入配置极点的问题和以上市公司政策为单控制输入配置极点的问题;根据系统非完全能达的条件,探讨了上市公司不发展时的镇定问题和股市宏观上不调控时的镇定问题.设计了一个降维状态观测器,用以估计证券的内在价值.选择使上市公司均衡增长时对应的证券平均内在价值作为目标值,设计线性多变量调节器,使所得到的闭环系统渐近稳定,且系统的输出跟踪该目标值.通过反馈控制以改善控制系统的内部结构特征和性能,达到人们对证券市场进行调控的预期目的.     

Chance and necessity in sociological theory

This paper proposes a mathematical model of financial markets as networks. The model examines the effect of network structure on market behavior (price volatility and trading volume). In the model, investors are arrayed in various network configurations through which they gather information to make trading decisions. The basic network considered is a chain graph with two parameters, number of investors (n) and the length of time in which information is transmitted (k). Closed‐form expressions for price volatility and expected trading volume are provided. The model is generalized to more complex networks, focusing on the hub‐and‐spoke network. The network configurations analyzed do not represent the real (and unknown) communication network among investors, but predictions from the model are consistent with price and volume patterns observed in sociological and economic research on financial markets. The main result is that network structure alone influences price volatility and expected trading volume even though investors are homogeneous and the information introduced into the system is unbiased and random. This result suggests that the structure of the real communication network among investors may influence market behavior.