Dynamics of an intraguild predation food web model with strong Allee effect in the basal prey

Since intraguild predation (IGP) is a ubiquitous and important community module in nature and Allee effect has strong impact on population dynamics, in this paper we propose a three-species IGP food web model consisted of the IG predator, IG prey and basal prey, in which the basal prey follows a logistic growth with strong Allee effect. We investigate the local and global dynamics of the model with emphasis on the impact of strong Allee effect. First, positivity and boundedness of solutions are studied. Then existence and stability of the boundary and interior equilibria are presented and the Hopf bifurcation curve at an interior equilibrium is given. The existence of a Hopf bifurcation curve indicates that if competition between the IG prey and IG predator for the basal resource lies below the curve then the interior equilibrium remains stable, while if it lies above the curve then the interior equilibrium loses its stability. In order to explore the impact of Allee effect, the parameter space is classified into sixteen different regions and, in each region, the number of interior equilibria is determined and the corresponding bifurcation diagrams on the Allee threshold are given. The extinction parameter regions of at least one species and the necessary coexistence parameter regions of all three species are provided. In addition, we explore possible dynamical patterns, i.e., the existence of multiple attractors. By theoretical analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the model can have one (i.e. extinction of all species), two (i.e. bi-stability) or three (i.e. tri-stability) attractors. It is also found by simulations that when there exists a unique stable interior equilibrium, the model may generate multiple attracting periodic orbits and the coexistence of all three species is enhanced as the competition between the IG prey and IG predator for the basal resource is close to the Hopf bifurcation curve from below. Our results indicate that the intraguild predation food web model exhibits rich and complex dynamic behaviors and strong Allee effect in the basal prey increases the extinction risk of not only the basal prey but also the IG prey or/and IG predator.     

Bifurcations in an epidemic model with constant removal rate of the infectives

An epidemic model with a constant removal rate of infective individuals is proposed to understand the effect of limited resources for treatment of infectives on the disease spread. It is found that it is unnecessary to take such a large treatment capacity that endemic equilibria disappear to eradicate the disease. It is shown that the outcome of disease spread may depend on the position of the initial states for certain range of parameters. It is also shown that the model undergoes a sequence of bifurcations including saddle-node bifurcation, subcritical Hopf bifurcation, and homoclinic bifurcation.     

Reconnection in a global model of Poincaré map describing dynamics of magnetic field lines in a reversed shear tokamak

Magnetic field lines behaviour in a reversed shear tokamak can be described by a one and a half degree of freedom Hamiltonian system. In order to get insights into its dynamics we study numerically a global model for a Poincaré map associated to such a system. Mainly we investigate the scenario of reconnection of the invariant manifolds of two hyperbolic orbits of the same type n/m and show that it is a generic one. When the two Poincaré–Birkhoff chains involved in this process are aligned in phase, i.e. they are in a nongeneric position, a sequence of two saddle–center bifurcations occur in one of the chains, interfering with the former elliptic orbit of that chain, such that at the reconnection threshold the two chains are in a generic position. Dynamics around the new created configuration at the reconnection appears to vary from a regular motion to a chaotic one.

In connection with the study of this global bifurcation we give the first example of region of instability in the dynamics of a nontwist map.     

Complexity analysis of dynamic noncooperative game models for closed-loop supply chain with product recovery

In this paper, we consider a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) with product recovery, which is composed of one manufacturer and one retailer. The retailer is in charge of recollecting and the manufacturer is responsible for product recovery. The system can be regarded as a coupling dynamics of the forward and reverse supply chain. Under different decision criteria, two noncooperative game models: Stackelberg game model and peer-to-peer game model are developed. The dynamic phenomena, such as the bifurcation, chaos and sensitivity to initial values are analyzed through bifurcation diagrams and the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE). The influences of decision parameters on the complex nonlinear dynamics behaviors of the two models are further analyzed by comparing parameter basin plots, and the results show that with the improvement of retailer’s competitive position, the CLSC system will be more easier to enter into chaos.     

Modeling and analysis of recurrent autoimmune disease

In this paper, we consider dynamics and bifurcations in two HIV models with cell-to-cell interaction. The difference between the two models lies in the inclusion or omission of the effect of involvement. Particular attention is focused on the effects due to the cell-to-cell transmission and the effect of the involvement. We investigate the local and global stability of equilibria of the two models and give a comparison. We derive the existence condition for Hopf bifurcation and prove no Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation in this system. In particular, we show that the system exhibits the recurrence phenomenon, yielding complex dynamical behavior. It is also shown that the effect of the involvement is the main cause of the periodic symptoms in HIV or malaria disease. Moreover, it is shown that the increase of cell-to-cell interaction may be the main factor causing Hopf bifurcation to disappear, and thus eliminating oscillation behavior. Finally, numerical simulations are present to demonstrate our theoretical results.     

Stability and backward bifurcation on a cholera epidemic model with saturated recovery rate

In this paper, a cholera epidemic model with saturated recovery rate is studied. Backward bifurcation leading to bistability possibly occurs, and global dynamics are shown by compound matrices and geometric approaches. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results. Our results suggest that the basic reproduction number itself is not enough to describe whether cholera will prevail or not when the resources for treatment of infectives are limited and suggest that we should pay more attention to the initial state of cholera. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Backward bifurcation of an epidemic model with saturated treatment function

An epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and saturated treatment function is studied. Here the treatment function adopts a continuous and differentiable function which can describe the effect of delayed treatment when the number of infected individuals is getting larger and the medical condition is limited. The global dynamics of the model indicate that the basic reproduction number being the unity is a strict threshold for disease eradication when such effect is weak. However, it is shown that a backward bifurcation will take place when this delayed effect for treatment is strong. Therefore, driving the basic reproduction number below the unity is not enough to eradicate the disease. And a critical value at the turning point is deduced as a new threshold. Some sufficient conditions for the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium being globally asymptotically stable are also obtained. Mathematical results in this paper suggest that giving the patients timely treatment, improving the cure efficiency and decreasing the infective coefficient are all valid methods for the control of disease.     

An SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate

The global dynamics of an SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. We establish a threshold for a disease to be extinct or endemic, analyze the existence and asymptotic stability of equilibria, and verify the existence of bistable states, i.e., a stable disease free equilibrium and a stable endemic equilibrium or a stable limit cycle. In particular, we find that the model admits stability switches as a parameter changes. We also investigate the backward bifurcation, the Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation and obtain the Hopf bifurcation criteria and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation curves, which are important for making strategies for controlling a disease.     

An SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate

The global dynamics of an SIRS model with a nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. We establish a threshold for a disease to be extinct or endemic, analyze the existence and asymptotic stability of equilibria, and verify the existence of bistable states, i.e., a stable disease free equilibrium and a stable endemic equilibrium or a stable limit cycle. In particular, we find that the model admits stability switches as a parameter changes. We also investigate the backward bifurcation, the Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation and obtain the Hopf bifurcation criteria and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation curves, which are important for making strategies for controlling a disease.     

Backward bifurcation and global dynamics of an SIS epidemic model with general incidence rate and treatment

An SIS epidemic model with treatment is proposed. The incidence rate of the model, which can include the bilinear incidence rate and the standard incidence rate, is a general nonlinear incidence rate. The global dynamics of the model are studied and then we can understand the effect of the capacity for treatment. It is found that a backward bifurcation occurs and there exist bistable endemic equilibria if the capacity is low. Mathematical results suggest that decreasing the basic reproduction number is insufficient for disease eradication and improving the efficiency and capacity of treatment is important for this end.     

Novel dynamics of a predator–prey system with harvesting of the predator guided by its population

A predator–prey model was extended to include nonlinear harvesting of the predator guided by its population, such that harvesting is only implemented if the predator population exceeds an economic threshold. The proposed model is a nonsmooth dynamic system with switches between the original predator-prey model (free subsystem) and a model with nonlinear harvesting (harvesting subsystem). We initially examine the dynamics of both the free and the harvesting subsystems, and then we investigate the dynamics of the switching system using theories of nonsmooth systems. Theoretical results showed that the harvesting subsystem undergoes multiple bifurcations, including saddle-node, supercritical Hopf, Bogdanov–Takens and homoclinic bifurcations. The switching system not only retains all of the complex dynamics of the harvesting system but also exhibits much richer dynamics such as a sliding equilibrium, sliding cycle, boundary node (saddle point) bifurcation, boundary saddle-node bifurcation and buckling bifurcation. Both theoretical and numerical results showed that, by implementing predator population guided harvesting, the predator and prey population could coexist in more scenarios than those in which the predator may go extinct for the continuous harvesting regime. They could either stabilize at an equilibrium or oscillate periodically depending on the value of the economic threshold and the initial value of the system.     

A Mathematical Model with Delays for Schistosomiasis Japonicum Transmission

A dynamic model of schistosoma japonicum transmission is presented that incorporates effects of the prepatent periods of the different stages of schistosoma into Baxbour＇s model. The model consists of four delay differential equations. Stability of the disease free equilibrium and the existence of an endemic equilibrium for this model are stated in terms of a key threshold parameter. The study of dynamics for the model shows that the endemic equilibrium is globally stable in an open region if it exists and there is no delays, and for some nonzero delays the endemic equilibrium undergoes Hopf bifurcation and a periodic orbit emerges. Some numerical results are provided to support the theoretic results in this paper. These results suggest that prepatent periods in infection affect the prevalence of schistosomiasis, and it is an effective strategy on schistosomiasis control to lengthen in prepatent period on infected definitive hosts by drug treatment （or lengthen in prepatent period on infected intermediate snails by lower water temperature）.     

Mathematical study of a risk-structured two-group model for Chlamydia transmission dynamics

A new two-group deterministic model for Chlamydia trachomatis, which stratifies the entire population based on risk of acquiring or transmitting infection, is designed and analyzed to gain insight into its transmission dynamics. The model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibria when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Unlike in some of the earlier modeling studies on Chlamydia transmission dynamics in a population, this study shows that the backward bifurcation phenomenon persists even if individuals who recovered from Chlamydia infection do not get re-infected. However, it is shown that the phenomenon can be removed if all the susceptible individuals are equally likely to acquire infection (i.e., for the case where the susceptible male and female populations are not stratified according to risk of acquiring infection). In such a case, the DFE of the resulting (reduced) model is globally-asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity and no re-infection of recovered individuals occurs. Thus, this study shows that stratifying the two-sex Chlamydia transmission model, presented in [1], according to the risk of acquiring or transmitting infection induces the phenomenon of backward bifurcation regardless of whether or not the re-infection of recovered individuals occurs.     

Rich dynamical behaviours for predator–prey model with weak Allee effect

The weak Allee effect on the predator is introduced into the classic predator–prey model of Lotka–Volterra type. Global qualitative and bifurcation analyses are combined to determine the global dynamics of the model. It is shown that the weak Allee effect can bring rich and complicated dynamics to the previous simple model, such as the saddle–node bifurcation, subcritical and supercritical Hopf bifurcations, and Bogdanov–Takens bifurcations, implying that weak Allee effect can be one of the simple reasons for many complicated behaviours in the predator–prey communities.     

Complex dynamics of an eco-epidemiological model with different competition coefficients and weak Allee in the predator

The paper explores an eco-epidemiological model with weak Allee in predator, and the disease in the prey population. We consider a predator-prey model with type II functional response. The curiosity of this paper is to consider different competition coefficients within the prey population, which leads to the emergent carrying capacity. We perform the local and global stability analysis of the equilibrium points and the Hopf bifurcation analysis around the endemic equilibrium point. Further we pay attention to the chaotic dynamics which is produced by disease. Our numerical simulations reveal that the three species eco-epidemiological system without weak-Allee induced chaos from stable focus for increasing the force of infection, whereas in the presence of the weak-Allee effect, it exhibits stable solution. We conclude that chaotic dynamics can be controlled by the Allee parameter as well as the competition coefficients. We apply basic tools of non-linear dynamics such as Poincare section and maximum Lyapunov exponent to identify chaotic behavior of the system.     

Global and Bifurcation Analysis of an HIV Pathogenesis Model with Saturated Reverse Function

In this paper, an HIV dynamics model with the proliferation of CD4 T cells is proposed. The authors consider nonnegativity, boundedness, global asymptotic stability of the solutions and bifurcation properties of the steady states. It is proved that the virus is cleared from the host under some conditions if the basic reproduction number R_0 is less than unity. Meanwhile, the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. We also obtain one equilibrium is semi-stable by using center manifold theory. It is proved that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable under some conditions if R_0 is greater than unity. It also is proved that the model undergoes Hopf bifurcation from the endemic equilibrium under some conditions. It is novelty that the model exhibits two famous bifurcations,backward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation. The model is extended to incorporate the specific Cytotoxic T Lymphocytes(CTLs) immune response. Stabilities of equilibria and Hopf bifurcation are considered accordingly. In addition, some numerical simulations for justifying the theoretical analysis results are also given in paper.     

Local and global bifurcations in an SIRS epidemic model

This paper studies the existence and stability of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibria for the SIRS epidemic model with the saturated incidence rate, considering the factor of population dynamics such as the disease-related, the natural mortality and the constant recruitment of population. Analytical techniques are used to show, for some parameter values, the periodic solutions can arise through the Hopf bifurcation, which is important to carry different strategies for the controlling disease. Then the codimension-two bifurcation, i.e. BT bifurcation, is investigated by using a global qualitative method and the curves of saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and homoclinic bifurcation are obtained at the degenerate equilibrium. Moreover, several numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical analysis.     

Perfect foresight dynamics in games with linear incentives and time symmetry

This paper investigates absorption and global accessibility under perfect foresight dynamics in games with linear incentives. An action distribution in the society is absorbing if there is no equilibrium path escaping from the distribution, and globally accessible if, from every initial distribution, there exists an equilibrium path which converges to the distribution. Using time symmetry of the dynamics, we show that every absorbing strict Nash equilibrium, if it exists, is globally accessible under zero rate of time preference. With the additional assumption of supermodularity, we prove that there generically exists an absorbing strict Nash equilibrium. Relations with a global game and a reaction-diffusion model also become clear. The definition of absorption used in this paper is slightly different from the original one in Matsui and Matsuyama (1995). This difference is neglected in Sect. 1, and will be discussed in Sect. 2.2.     

Global stability of a delayed epidemic model with latent period and vaccination strategy

In this paper, a mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease with an exposed (latent) period and waning vaccine-induced immunity is investigated. The basic reproduction number is found by applying the method of the next generation matrix. It is shown that the global dynamics of the model is completely determined by the basic reproduction number. By means of appropriate Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle’s invariance principle, it is proven that if the basic reproduction number is less than or equal to unity, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease fades out; and if the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and therefore the disease becomes endemic.     

Mathematical Analysis of West Nile Virus Model with Discrete Delays

The paper presents the basic model for the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV). The model, which consists of seven mutually-exclusive compartments representing the birds and vector dynamics, has a locally-asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number (?₀) is less than unity. As reveal in [3, 20], the analyses of the model show the existence of the phenomenon of backward bifurcation (where the stable disease-free equilibrium of the model co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the reproduction number of the disease is less than unity). It is shown, that the backward bifurcation phenomenon can be removed by substituting the associated standard incidence function with a mass action incidence. Analysis of the reproduction number of the model shows that, the disease will persist, whenever ?₀ > 1, and increase in the length of incubation period can help reduce WNV burden in the community if a certain threshold quantities, denoted by Δ_b and Δ_v are negative. On the other hand, increasing the length of the incubation period increases disease burden if Δ_b > 0 and Δ_v > 0. Furthermore, it is shown that adding time delay to the corresponding autonomous model with standard incidence (considered in [2]) does not alter the qualitative dynamics of the autonomous system (with respect to the elimination or persistence of the disease).