修正的GM(1,1)残差模型在原煤销售量预测中的应用

本论研究的是提高灰色预测模型的一种方法。首先建立主模型进行预测，得到残差序列，然后对残差序列建模，对主模型进行修正，得到修正的GM(1，1)模型。将模型应用到原煤销售量的预测中，其精度明显提高。     

A combination of time-scale calculus and a cross-validation technique used in fitting and evaluating fractional models

In this work, we demonstrate how fractional calculus and time-scale calculus can be combined beautifully to solve and fit a modeling problem. In addition, a cross-validation technique is used to evaluate the fitted model. The specific application that we consider is the one-compartment model. The one-compartment model is a first-order differential equation that describes drug concentration over time. It turns out that approximating the solution by using a fractional model allows us to get more accurate results for model fitting. To quantitatively verify this insight, we compare between a first-order model and anα-order fractional model using real data for drug concentration. Then the mean squared error and a cross-validation method are used to determine the model that provides the best fit and predictions for unseen data.     

Towers and Fibered Products of Model Structures

Given a left Quillen presheaf of localized model structures, we study the homotopy limit model structure on the associated category of sections. We focus specifically on towers and fibered products (pullbacks) of model categories. As applications we consider Postnikov towers of model categories, chromatic towers of spectra and Bousfield arithmetic squares of spectra. For stable model categories, we show that the homotopy fiber of a stable left Bousfield localization is a stable right Bousfield localization.     

Exclusion and persistence in deterministic and stochastic chemostat models

We first introduce and analyze a variant of the deterministic single-substrate chemostat model. In this model, microbe removal and growth rates depend on biomass concentration, with removal terms increasing faster than growth terms. Using a comparison principle we show that persistence of all species is possible in this scenario. Then we turn to modelling the influence of random fluctuations by setting up and analyzing a stochastic differential equation. In particular, we show that random effects may lead to extinction in scenarios where the deterministic model predicts persistence. On the other hand, we also establish some stochastic persistence results.     

Mathematical analysis of autonomous and non-autonomous age-structured reaction-diffusion-advection population model

In this paper, we study an age-structured reaction-diffusion-advection population model. First, we use a non-densely defined operator to the linear age-structured reaction-diffusion-advection population model in a patchy environment. By spectral analysis, we obtain the asynchronous exponential growth of the population model. Then we consider nonlinear death rate and birth rate, which all depend on the function related to the generalized total population, and we prove the existence of a steady state of the system. Finally, we study the age-structured reaction-diffusion-advection population model in non-autonomous situations. We give the comparison principle and prove the eventual compactness of semiflow by using integrated semigroup. We also prove the existence of compact attractors under the periodic situation.     

Combinatorial and accessible weak model categories

In a previous work, we have introduced a weakening of Quillen model categories called weak model categories. They still allow all the usual constructions of model category theory, but are easier to construct and are in some sense better behaved. In this paper we continue to develop their general theory by introducing combinatorial and accessible weak model categories. We give simple necessary and sufficient conditions under which such a weak model category can be extended into a left and/or right semi-model category. As an application, we recover Cisinski-Olschok theory and generalize it to weak and semi-model categories. We also provide general existence theorems for both left and right Bousfield localization of combinatorial and accessible weak model structures, which combined with the results above gives existence results for left and right Bousfield localization of combinatorial and accessible left and right semi-model categories, generalizing previous results of Barwick. Surprisingly, we show that any left or right Bousfield localization of an accessible or combinatorial Quillen model category always exists, without properness assumptions, and is simultaneously both a left and a right semi-model category, without necessarily being a Quillen model category itself.     

An ILP and simulation model to optimize search and rescue helicopter operations

Maritime search and rescue (SAR) operations, conducted for rendering aid to the victims in need of help at sea, play a crucial role in dropping the number of causalities. Therefore, it is of high importance to organize SAR operations properly. In this paper, we compose a hybrid methodology which combines optimization and simulation to allocate SAR helicopters. First, we build an integer linear programming (ILP) model to provide an effective deployment plan and use it as an input to a simulation model which includes constraints that the ILP model cannot tackle. Next, using a rule-based algorithm, we generate alternative solutions and seek better plans that exist in the vicinity of the ILP model solution. We perform our methodology on the historical incident data in the Aegean Sea region. Results show that the hybrid methodology we adopted leads to a more effective utilization of resources than the optimization model alone.     

Rental price and rental duration under retail competition

Consider a retailer that rents products to customers for a pre-specified rental duration. By considering the dynamics of uncertain rental demand and return processes, we first present a base model that is intended to analyze the impact of rental duration on the stocking level, the rental price, and the retailer’s profit. Due to the complexity of the base model, we develop an approximation scheme to obtain tractable results. Also, we apply the base model to analyze a situation in which a retailer enters a revenue sharing agreement with a distributor. Moreover, we expand our base model to address the issue of competition in rental duration and rental price. The analysis of our competitive model in a duopolistic environment suggests that the market equilibrium depends on the market potential and the rental duration sensitivity. Furthermore, we establish conditions under which one firm will charge a lower rental price while the other firm will offer a longer rental duration in equilibrium.     

客户关系动态优化模型与实证研究

提出了客户关系与营销活动的动态交互模型,以长期收益最大化为目标,优化企业的营销活动。模型假设客户关系可离散为几个层级状态,并设客户关系所处状态受营销活动的影响而动态的变化,服从马尔可夫决策过程。客户关系状态所处层级不可直接观测,但其与客户购买水平有概率相关关系。提出模型参数估计的最大似然估计方法。以国内某企业的客户关系管理数据为例,说明了模型变量的定义方法,通过客户交互历史数据估计模型参数,并对客户管理策略进行优化。结果表明,最优策略管理下期望提升客户价值61％～82％。     

Upper and lower approximation models in interval regression using regression quantile techniques

In this paper, we propose new interval regression analysis based on the regression quantile techniques. To analyze a phenomenon in a fuzzy environment, we propose two interval approximation models. Without using all data, we first identify the main trend from the designated proportion of the given data. To select the main part of data to be analyzed, we introduce the regression quantile techniques. The obtained model is not influenced by extreme points since it is formulated from the center-located main proportion of the given data. After that, the interval regression model including all data can be identified based on the acquired main trend. The obtained interval regression model by the main proportion of the given data is called the lower approximation model, while interval regression model by all data is called the upper approximation model for the given phenomenon. Also it is shown that, from the lower approximation model (main trend) and the upper approximation model, we can construct a trapezoidal fuzzy model. The membership function of this fuzzy model is useful to obtain the locational information for each observation. The characteristic of our approach can be described as obtaining the upper and lower approximation models and combining them to be a fuzzy model for representing the given phenomenon in a fuzzy environment.     

A two-echelon allocation model and the value of information under correlated forecasts and demands

In this article we explore the effects of incorporating forecasts explicitly in a two-echelon allocation model which consists of a central depot and several retailers. In particular, we investigate the possible benefits on the system costs and inventory levels. The depot does not hold any inventory and the demand is observed only at the retailers. Under a general correlated demand-forecast structure we obtain the approximate system-wide order-up-to level and the expected system cost. In order to assess the value of information provided by keeping track of the forecasts, we construct a comparable inventory system operating under a standard demand model. We demonstrate that the standard demand model results in higher order-up-to levels and higher system costs.     

学生体质评价模型的构建与分析

利用组合群验的理论和方法构建了学生体质评价数学模型,在这一模型基础上介绍了该模型的应用方法,为评价学生体质提供了新方法.     

空气中PM2.5的动态扩散及宏观预测

以PM2.5扩散、衰减模式为研究对象,分析探究了PM2.5的扩散规律、危机治理及其后5年的治理问题.首先通过主成分分析法,建立了PM2.5与其它污染物之间的多元非线性对数模型.同时引入相对湿度的影响因素对模型进行再度优化,提高了模型的拟合优度.运用统计学原理,得出采集点之间的PM2.5具有较高的协同性.另外分析了静态下PM2.5污染物颗粒的受力和漂移模式和从点源、面源两方面分析了PM2.5动态扩散模式,建立了PM2.5的扩散偏微分方程模型.根据建立的扩散模型,对突变的污染物浓度确定安全区域的范围.最后建立综合费用和专项费用的多目标优化模型,利用贝叶斯支持向量机方法对PM2.5进行宏观预测,并运用系统动力学理论对目标值进一步优化,并对不同治理模式进行对比分析.     

含右删失数据的ZIP模型及其应用

零膨胀Poisson回归(ZIP)是处理零频数过多计数资料的有效模型,而计数数据一般含有删失或不精密的特点.本文将删失数据引入到ZIP模型中来,分别建立含右删失数据的固定效应ZIP模型,随机效应ZIP模型,通过极大边际似然函数估计法对模型进行参数估计.最后,利用实例分析验证了上述模型的可行性.     

随机赔偿,随机折现下的保险概率模型及若干结果

本文首先构造了保险的随机过程模型，即随机赔偿和随机折现的双随机模型．运用测度扩张理论将赔偿过程发展为随机赔偿恻度，在模型的基本假定之下研究赔偿过程的性质，给出保险和年金的测度表示以及诸多精算公式．最后针对随机利率的Gauss过程模型得到Hoem模型随机赔偿测度的现值矩发展了［7］中的主要结果．     

带短期价格折扣和允许两次特殊补货的库存决策模型

针对供应商提供短期价格折扣且允许零售商两次特殊补货的库存系统, 建立了以零售商库存效益最大化为目标的库存决策模型, 分析了模型的性质, 根据经济订单批量补货决策下补货时间点与折扣时段的关系, 确定了零售商在不同补货策略下的库存效益增值函数. 据此给出零售商相应的最优补货策略函数表达式, 提出了该模型的一个全局优化算法, 并通过数值算例验证了模型和算法的有效性与可行性.     

工作休假和休假中止的M/G/1排队模型的适定性

主要研究工作休假和休假中止的M/G/1排队系统,首先将对应于此系统的数学模型转化为抽象Cauchy问题,其次证明对应于此排队模型的主算子生成正压缩C0半群T(t),然后证明T(t)是局部等距的,最后证明此模型存在唯一的非负时间依赖解。     

A green train scheduling model and fuzzy multi-objective optimization algorithm

Train scheduling model is traditionally formulated to minimize the energy consumption for reducing the operation cost. As the European Union formulates the first carbon emission trading scheme in the world, it is necessary to extend the operation cost to include the expenses for buying/selling the carbon emission allowances. In this paper, we propose a multi-objective train scheduling model by minimizing the energy and carbon emission cost as well as the total passenger-time, and named it as green train scheduling model. For obtaining a non-dominated timetable which has equal satisfactory degree on both objectives, we apply a fuzzy multi-objective optimization algorithm to solve the model. Finally, we perform two numerical examples to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model and solution methodology.     

团队成员选择的模型及算法

本针对组织中组建团队或重组现有团队时的成员选择问题，提出了反映团队成员之间、成员和团队之间关系的群体效用模型，并根据此模型进行团队成员的选择，从而把团队成员选择问题转化为一个组合优化问题。证明了基于群体效用模型进行团队成员选择的问题是NP-hard问题，并且提出了基于ORASP技术和禁忌算法的启发式算法，最后给出了算例。