Singularly Perturbed Markov Chains: Convergence and Aggregation

Asymptotic properties of singularly perturbed Markov chains having measurable and/or continuous generators are developed in this work. The Markov chain under consideration has a finite-state space and is allowed to be nonstationary. Its generator consists of a rapidly varying part and a slowly changing part. The primary concerns are on the properties of the probability vectors and an aggregated process that depend on the characteristics of the fast varying part of the generators. The fast changing part of the generators can either consist of l recurrent classes, or include also transient states in addition to the recurrent classes. The case of inclusion of transient states is examined in detail. Convergence of the probability vectors under the weak topology of L² is obtained first. Then under slightly stronger conditions, it is shown that the convergence also takes place pointwise. Moreover, convergence under the norm topology of L² is derived. Furthermore, a process with aggregated states is obtained which converges to a Markov chain in distribution.     

Design Adaptive Nearest Neighbor Regression Estimation

This paper deals with nonparametric regression estimation under arbitrary sampling with an unknown distribution. The effect of the distribution of the design, which is a nuisance parameter, can be eliminated by conditioning. An upper bound for the conditional mean squared error of k−NN estimates leads us to consider an optimal number of neighbors, which is a random function of the sampling. The corresponding estimate can be used for nonasymptotic inference and is also consistent under a minimal recurrence condition. Some deterministic equivalents are found for the random rate of convergence of this optimal estimate, for deterministic and random designs with vanishing or diverging densities. The proposed estimate is rate optimal for standard designs.     

The M/G/1 Queue with Finite Workload Capacity

We consider the M/G/1 queueing system in which customers whose admission to the system would increase the workload beyond a prespecified finite capacity limit are not accepted. Various results on the distribution of the workload are derived; in particular, we give explicit formulas for its stationary distribution for M/M/1 and in the general case, under the preemptive LIFO discipline, for the joint stationary distribution of the number of customers in the system and their residual service times. Furthermore, the Laplace transform of the length of a busy period is determined. Finally, for M/D/1 the busy period distribution is derived in closed form.     

Estimating a Distribution Function for Censored Time Series Data

Consider a long term study, where a series of dependent and possibly censored failure times is observed. Suppose that the failure times have a common marginal distribution function, but they exhibit a mode of time series structure such as α-mixing. The inference on the marginal distribution function is of interest to us. The main results of this article show that, under some regularity conditions, the Kaplan–Meier estimator enjoys uniform consistency with rates, and a stochastic process generated by the Kaplan–Meier estimator converges weakly to a certain Gaussian process with a specified covariance structure. Finally, an estimator of the limiting variance of the Kaplan–Meier estimator is proposed and its consistency is established.     

Bayesian inference in Markovian queues

This paper is concerned with the Bayesian analysis of general queues with Poisson input and exponential service times. Joint posterior distribution of the arrival rate and the individual service rate is obtained from a sample consisting inn observations of the interarrival process andm complete service times. Posterior distribution of traffic intensity inM/M/c is also obtained and the statistical analysis of the ergodic condition from a decision point of view is discussed.     

A matrix-analytic solution for the DBMAP/PH/1 priority queue

Priority queueing models have been commonly used in telecommunication systems. The development of analytically tractable models to determine their performance is vitally important. The discrete time batch Markovian arrival process (DBMAP) has been widely used to model the source behavior of data traffic, while phase-type (PH) distribution has been extensively applied to model the service time. This paper focuses on the computation of the DBMAP/PH/1 queueing system with priorities, in which the arrival process is considered to be a DBMAP with two priority levels and the service time obeys a discrete PH distribution. Such a queueing model has potential in performance evaluation of computer networks such as video transmission over wireless networks and priority scheduling in ATM or TDMA networks. Based on matrix-analytic methods, we develop computation algorithms for obtaining the stationary distribution of the system numbers and further deriving the key performance indices of the DBMAP/PH/1 priority queue. AMS subject classifications: 60K25 · 90B22 · 68M20 The work was supported in part by grants from RGC under the contracts HKUST6104/04E, HKUST6275/04E and HKUST6165/05E, a grant from NSFC/RGC under the contract N_HKUST605/02, a grant from NSF China under the contract 60429202.     

Bayesian estimation ofg-and-k distributions using MCMC

Summary  In this paper we investigate a Bayesian procedure for the estimation of a flexible generalised distribution, notably the MacGillivray adaptation of theg-and-k distribution. This distribution, described through its inverse cdf or quantile function, generalises the standard normal through extra parameters which together describe skewness and kurtosis. The standard quantile-based methods for estimating the parameters of generalised distributions are often arbitrary and do not rely on computation of the likelihood. MCMC, however, provides a simulation-based alternative for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of these distributions or for deriving posterior estimates of the parameters through a Bayesian framework. In this paper we adopt the latter approach. The proposed methodology is illustrated through an application in which the parameter of interest is slightly skewed.     

Hypothesis testing for the generalized multivariate modified Bessel model

In this paper, we consider hypothesis testing problems in which the involved samples are drawn from generalized multivariate modified Bessel populations. This is a much more general distribution that includes both the multivariate normal and multivariate-t distributions as special cases. We derive the distribution of the Hotelling's T²-statistic for both the one- and two-sample problems, as well as the distribution of the Scheffe's T²-statistic for the Behrens–Fisher problem. In all cases, the non-null distribution of the corresponding F-statistic follows a new distribution which we introduce as the non-central F-Bessel distribution. Some statistical properties of this distribution are studied. Furthermore, this distribution was utilized to perform some power calculations for tests of means for different models which are special cases of the generalized multivariate modified Bessel distribution, and the results compared with those obtained under the multivariate normal case. Under the null hypothesis, however, the non-central F-Bessel distribution reduces to the central F-distribution obtained under the classical normal model.     

Effect of the initial estimator on the asymptotic behavior of one-step M-estimator

For a general (real) parameter, let M _nbe the M-estimator and M _n ⁽¹⁾ be its one-step version (based on a suitable initial estimator M _n ⁽⁰⁾). It is known that, under certain regularity conditions, n(M _n ⁽¹⁾-M _n)=O _p(1). The asymptotic distribution of n(M _n ⁽¹⁾-M _n) is studied; it is typically non-normal and it reveals the role of the initial estimator M _n ⁽⁰⁾.Work of this author was partially supported by the Office of Naval Research, Contract No. N00014-83-K-0387     

Asymptotics and bootstrap for inverse Gaussian regression

This paper studies regression, where the reciprocal of the mean of a dependent variable is considered to be a linear function of the regressor variables, and the observations on the dependent variable are assumed to have an inverse Gaussian distribution. The large sample theory for the pseudo maximum likelihood estimators is available in the literature, only when the number of replications increase at a fixed rate. This is inadequate for many practical applications. This paper establishes consistency and derives the asymptotic distribution for the pseudo maximum likelihood estimators under very general conditions on the design points. This includes the case where the number of replications do not grow large, as well as the one where there are no replications. The bootstrap procedure for inference on the regression parameters is also investigated.Research supported in part by NSF Grant DMS-9208066.Research supported in part by NSERC of Canada.     

Exact Convergence Rate for the Distributions of GI/M/c/K Queue as K Tends to Infinity

We obtain the exact convergence rate of the stationary distribution ^(K) of the embedded Markov chain in GI/M/c/K queue to the stationary distribution of the embedded Markov chain in GI/M/c queue as K. Similar result for the time-stationary distributions of queue size is also included. These generalize Choi and Kim's results of the case c=1 by nontrivial ways. Our results also strengthen the Simonot's results [5].     

Bayesian inference for dependent elliptical measurement error models

In this article we provide a Bayesian analysis for dependent elliptical measurement error models considering nondifferential and differential errors. In both cases we compute posterior distributions for structural parameters by using squared radial prior distributions for the precision parameters. The main result is that the posterior distribution of location parameters, for specific priors, is invariant with respect to changes in the generator function, in agreement with previous results obtained in the literature under different assumptions. Finally, although the results obtained are valid for any elliptical distribution for the error term, we illustrate those results by using the student-t distribution and a real data set.     

Analysis of customers’ impatience in queues with server vacations

Many models for customers impatience in queueing systems have been studied in the past; the source of impatience has always been taken to be either a long wait already experienced at a queue, or a long wait anticipated by a customer upon arrival. In this paper we consider systems with servers vacations where customers’ impatience is due to an absentee of servers upon arrival. Such a model, representing frequent behavior by waiting customers in service systems, has never been treated before in the literature. We present a comprehensive analysis of the single-server, M/M/1 and M/G/1 queues, as well as of the multi-server M/M/c queue, for both the multiple and the single-vacation cases, and obtain various closed-form results. In particular, we show that the proportion of customer abandonments under the single-vacation regime is smaller than that under the multiple-vacation discipline. This work was supported by the Euro-Ngi network of excellence.     

Rates of Convergence and Law of the Iterated Logarithm for U-Processes

We study in this paper some limit theorems for U-processes. We calculate rates of convergence in the central limit theorem of nondegenerate U-processes under metric entropy with bracketing condition. In application, we improve upon the law of the iterated logarithm of Arcones. All calculations use the Ossiander chaining procedure.     

L1 regression estimate and its bootstrap

We study the asymptotic distribution of the L ₁ regression estimator under general conditions with matrix norming and possibly non i.i.d. errors. We then introduce an appropriate bootstrap procedure to estimate the distribution of this estimator and study its asymptotic properties. It is shown that this bootstrap is consistent under suitable conditions and in other situations the bootstrap limit is a random distribution. This work was supported by J.C. Bose National Fellowship, Government of India     

Continuity theorems for the M/M/1/n queueing system

In this paper continuity theorems are established for the number of losses during a busy period of the M/M/1/n queue. We consider an M/GI/1/n queueing system where the service time probability distribution, slightly different in a certain sense from the exponential distribution, is approximated by that exponential distribution. Continuity theorems are obtained in the form of one or two-sided stochastic inequalities. The paper shows how the bounds of these inequalities are changed if further assumptions, associated with specific properties of the service time distribution (precisely described in the paper), are made. Specifically, some parametric families of service time distributions are discussed, and the paper establishes uniform estimates (given for all possible values of the parameter) and local estimates (where the parameter is fixed and takes only the given value). The analysis of the paper is based on the level crossing approach and some characterization properties of the exponential distribution. Dedicated to Vladimir Mikhailovich Zolotarev, Victor Makarovich Kruglov, and to the memory of Vladimir Vyacheslavovich Kalashnikov.     

Onm-dependence and Edgeworth expansions

This paper contains two results. The first establishes, under mild assumptions, the validity of an Edgeworth expansion with remaindero(N ^–1/2) for aU-statistic with a kernel of degree two using observations from anm-dependent shift. The second result gives a necessary and sufficient condition for the distribution of a sum ofm-dependent random variables to possess an Edgeworth expansion. This generalizes a result of Bickel and Robinson from the i.i.d. case to them-dependent case.This research was supported in part by National Science Foundation, Grant DMS 89-23071.     

General Study of Iterative Processes of <Emphasis Type="Italic">R</Emphasis>-Order at Least Three under Weak Convergence Conditions

We consider a family of Newton-type iterative processes solving nonlinear equations in Banach spaces, that generalizes the usually iterative methods of R-order at least three. The convergence of this family in Banach spaces is usually studied when the second derivative of the operator involved is Lipschitz continuous and bounded. In this paper, we relax the first condition, assuming that ‖F″(x)−F″(y)‖≤ω(‖x−y‖), where ω is a nondecreasing continuous real function. We prove that the different R-orders of convergence that we can obtain depend on the quasihomogeneity of the function ω. We end the paper by applying the study to some nonlinear integral equations. This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology (BFM 2002-00222), the University of La Rioja (API-04/13) and the Government of La Rioja (ACPI 2003/2004).     

Bivariate Recursive Equations on Excess-of-loss Reinsurance

This paper investigates bivariate recursive equations on excess-of-loss reinsurance. For an insurance portfolio, under the assumptions that the individual claim severity distribution has bounded continuous density and the number of claims belongs to R1 （a, b） family, bivariate recursive equations for the joint distribution of the cedent＇s aggregate claims and the reinsurer＇s aggregate claims are obtained.     

An SQP algorithm for extended linear-quadratic problems in stochastic programming

Extended Linear-Quadratic Programming (ELQP) problems were introduced by Rockafellar and Wets for various models in stochastic programming and multistage optimization. Several numerical methods with linear convergence rates have been developed for solving fully quadratic ELQP problems, where the primal and dual coefficient matrices are positive definite. We present a two-stage sequential quadratic programming (SQP) method for solving ELQP problems arising in stochastic programming. The first stage algorithm realizes global convergence and the second stage algorithm realizes superlinear local convergence under a condition calledB-regularity.B-regularity is milder than the fully quadratic condition; the primal coefficient matrix need not be positive definite. Numerical tests are given to demonstrate the efficiency of the algorithm. Solution properties of the ELQP problem underB-regularity are also discussed.Supported by the Australian Research Council.