Container fleet-sizing for part transportation and storage in a two-level supply chain

This research addresses the fleet-sizing of containers that are used for the protection, transportation, and storage of parts between a component plant and multiple assembly plants. These containers are needed for the storage of completed parts as they are produced, and also for storage of parts as they are used in assembly. The containers are reusable, expensive, occupy a large amount of space when empty or full, and are required to maintain production. An analytical model is developed for the minimum container fleet size that results in no production stoppages due to lack of containers assuming no system variability. The model considers the discrete nature of part production and shipping as well as differences in available production and transportation time. The model is shown to be accurate and provides insight into the factors that affect container fleet size and production stoppage trade-offs.     

NHPP models for categorized software defects

We develop NHPP models to characterize categorized event data, with application to modelling the discovery process for categorized software defects. Conditioning on the total number of defects, multivariate models are proposed for modelling the defects by type. A latent vector autoregressive structure is used to characterize dependencies among the different types. We show how Bayesian inference can be achieved via MCMC procedures, with a posterior prediction‐based L‐measure used for model selection. The results are illustrated for defects of different types found during the System Test phase of a large operating system software development project. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Equipment Replacement Problem

This paper describes a study undertaken to develop a model for the replacement of a particular type of machine. The dominant operating costs are identified, and existing replacement models reviewed. One of the most important factors is the cost of production stoppages which can sometimes result from the breakdown of these machines. In order to predict the effects of this in terms of the machines' age, a simulation model is developed.The results from the replacement model are investigated in terms of their sensitivity to the variability in the estimates of the parameters required by the model. In particular some interesting results relating the method used for calculating the resale values and the optimal replacement interval are presented.     

Optimum policy for a production system with major repair and preventive maintenance

This study applies periodic preventive maintenance (PM) to a repairable production system with major repairs conducted after a failure. This study considers failed PM due to maintenance workers incorrectly performing PM and damages occurring after PM. Therefore, three PM types are considered: imperfect PM, perfect PM and failed PM. Imperfect PM has the same failure rate as that before PM, whereas perfect PM makes restores the system perfectly. Failed PM results in system deterioration and major repairs are required. The probability that PM is perfect or failed depends on the number of imperfect maintenance operations conducted since the previous renewal cycle. Mathematical formulas for expected total production cost per unit time are generated. Optimum PM time that minimizes cost is derived. Various special cases are considered, including the maintenance learning effect. A numerical example is given.     

Optimal economic production quantity policy for imperfect process with imperfect repair and maintenance

This study integrates maintenance and production programs with the economic production quantity (EPQ) model for an imperfect process involving a deteriorating production system with increasing hazard rate: imperfect repair and rework upon failure (out of control state). The imperfect repair performs some restorations and restores the system to an operating state (in-control state), but leaves its failure until perfect preventive maintenance (PM) is performed. There are two types of PM, namely imperfect PM and perfect PM. The probability that perfect PM is performed depends on the number of imperfect maintenance operations performed since the last renewal cycle. Mathematical formulas are obtained for deriving the expected total cost. For the EPQ model, the optimum run time, which minimizes the total cost, is discussed. Various special cases are considered, including the maintenance learning effect. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the effects of PM, setup, breakdown and holding costs.     

The impact of inspection errors,imperfect maintenance and minimal repairs on an imperfect production system

This paper develops an integrated model of production lot-sizing, maintenance and quality for considering the possibilities of inspection errors, preventive maintenance (PM) errors and minimal repairs for an imperfect production system with increasing hazard rates. In this study, a PM activity is imperfect in that a production system cannot be recovered as good as new and might cause the production system to shift to the out-of-control state with a certain probability. Numerical analyses are used to simulate the effect of changes in various parameters on the optimal solution for which the time that the process remains in the in-control state is assumed to follow a Weibull distribution. In addition, we investigate the effects of inspection errors and PM errors on the minimum total cost of the optimal inspection interval, inspection frequency and production quantity.     

利用故障数据和估计的检查数据建立维修优化模型

利用时间延迟概念,根据故障记录数据和估计的检查数据建立了预防维修模型.通过对故障记录数据统计分析,提出了模型的假定条件.采用最大似然估计法,估计参数,包括缺陷发生率、不完全检查概率和时间延迟分布.建立了有关预防维修间隔期和总停机时间之间关系的检查模型,并根据估计参数和检查模型,计算最佳维修间隔期.     

Integrated fleet mix and routing decision for hazmat transportation: A developing country perspective

In developing countries, truck purchase cost is the dominant criteria for fleet acquisition-related decisions. However, we contend that other cost factors such as loss due to the number of en route truck stoppages based on a truck type and recovery cost associated with a route choice decision, should also be considered for deciding the fleet mix and minimizing the overall costs for long-haul shipments. The resulting non-linear model, with integer variables for the number and type of trucks, and the route choices, is solved via genetic algorithm. Using real data from a bulk liquid hazmat transporter, the trade-offs between the cost of travel, loss due to number of truck stoppages, and the long-term recovery cost associated with the risk of exposure due to a hazmat carrier accident are discussed. The numerical experiments show that when factors related to public safety and truck stoppages are taken into account for transportation, the lowest total cost and optimal route choice do not align with the cheapest truck type option; rather, the optimal solution corresponds to another truck type and route with total costs significantly less than the total costs associated with the cheapest truck type. Our model challenges the current truck purchasing strategy adopted in developing countries using the cheapest truck criteria.     

The relationship between preventive maintenance and manufacturing system performance

A common lament of the preventive maintenance (PM) crusaders is that production supervisors are often unwilling to lose valuable machine time when there are job waiting to be processed and do not assign high enough priority to PM. Maintenance activities that depend dynamically on system state are too complicated to implement and their overall impact on system performance, measured in terms of average tardiness or work-in-process (WIP) inventory, is difficult to predict. In this article, we present some easy to implement state-dependent PM policies that are consistent with the realities of production environment. We also develop polling models based analyses that could be used to obtain system performance metrics when such policies are implemented. We show that there are situations in which increased PM activity can lower total expected WIP (and overall tardiness) on its own, i.e., without accounting for the lower unplanned downtime. We also include examples that explain the interaction between duration of PM activity and switchover times. We identify cases in which a simple state-independent PM policy outperforms the more sophisticated state-dependent policies.     

An approach for integrated scheduling and lot-sizing

In this paper a non time discrete approach is developed for an integrated planning procedure, applied to a multi-item capacitated production system with dynamic demand. The objective is to minimize the total costs, which consist of holding and setup costs for one period. The model does not allow backlog. Furthermore, a production rate of zero or full capacity is the only possibility. The result is a schedule, lot-sizes and the sequences for all lots. The approach is based on a specific property of the setup cost function, which allows for replacement of the integer formulation for the number of setup activities in the model. In a situation where the requirements for the multi-item continuous rate economic order quantity, the so-called economic production lot (EPL) formula, are fulfilled, both the EPL as well as the presented model results are identical for the instances dealt with. Moreover, with the new model problems with an arbitrary demand can be solved.     

Heuristic Interpretation of Infeasible Solutions to a Production Scheduling Problem in Cigarette Manufacture

In this paper an end-user Infeasibility Resolution Heuristic (IRH) is developed to assist managers and production schedulers in the evaluation and interpretation of infeasible solutions arising from the use of a production scheduling model of a tobacco processing plant. The primary aim of the model is initially to determine whether the forecast annual demand for tobacco products can be met by the plant, and if not what must be done. Having determined that the demanded quantities are feasible, the model is then used to arrive at a production schedule such that the minimum number of machines are used in the entire process for the planning period (the model is a monthly one linked together by the closing stock equations for up to 12 months ahead). The operations of the plant modelled include the selection of the appropriate blend of leaf, assignment of the forecast product demand to suitable making machines, production of the required quantity of filters, assignment of the cigarettes produced to specific packers and then the determination as to whether the final product produced in the current period will be used to satisfy the current month's demand or demand in the future. The problem of sequencing the monthly production once the production schedule is determined has not been dealt with in this paper.     

Economic production lot-sizing for an unreliable machine under imperfect age-based maintenance policy

This paper is concerned with the joint determination of both economic production quantity and preventive maintenance (PM) schedules under the realistic assumption that the production facility is subject to random failure and the maintenance is imperfect. The manufacturing system is assumed to deteriorate while in operation, with an increasing failure rate. The system undergoes PM either upon failure or after having reached a predetermined age, whichever of them occurs first. As is often the case in real manufacturing applications, maintenance activities are imperfect and unable to restore the system to its original healthy state. In this work, we propose a model that could be used to determine the optimal number of production runs and the sequence of PM schedules that minimizes the long-term average cost. Some useful properties of the cost function are developed to characterize the optimal policy. An algorithm is also proposed to find the optimal solutions to the problem at hand. Numerical results are provided to illustrate both the use of the algorithm in the study of the optimal cost function and the latter’s sensitivity to different changes in cost factors.     

Joint production and preventive maintenance scheduling for a single degraded machine by considering machine failures

Production scheduling and maintenance planning are two interdependent issues that most often have been investigated independently. Although both preventive maintenance (PM) and minimal repair affect availability and failure rate of a machine, only a few researchers have considered this interdependency in the literature. Furthermore, most of the existing joint production and preventive maintenance scheduling methods assume that machine is available during the planning horizon and consider only a possible level for PM. In this research, an integrated model is proposed that coordinates preventive maintenance planning with single-machine scheduling to minimize the weighted completion time of jobs and maintenance cost, simultaneously. This paper not only considers multiple PM levels with different costs, times and reductions in the hazard rate of the machine, but also assumes that a machine failure may occur at any time. To illustrate the effectiveness of the suggested method, it is compared to two situations of no PM and a single PM level. Eventually, to tackle the suggested problem, multi-objective particle swarm optimization and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) are employed and their parameters are tuned Furthermore, their performances are compared in terms of three metrics criteria.     

Justification of the NLS approximation for a quasilinear water wave model

We show how for a quasilinear water wave model the NLS approximation can be justified. The model presents several new difficulties due to the quadratic terms which have to be eliminated by a normal-form transformation. Due to the quasilinearity of the problem there is some loss of regularity associated with the normal-form transformation and there is a nontrivial resonance present in the problem. The loss of regularity is dealt with by using a Cauchy-Kowalevskaya-like method to treat the initial value problem and the nontrivial resonance is dealt with via a rescaling argument.     

Integrated production and quality model under various preventive maintenance policies

In this paper, we investigate the effect of various preventive maintenance policies on the joint optimisation of the economic production quantity (EPQ) and the economic design of control chart. This has been done for a deteriorating process where the in-control period follows a general probability distribution with increasing hazard rate. In the proposed model, preventive maintenance (PM) activities reduce the shift rate of the system to the out-of-control state proportional to the PM level. For each policy, the model determines the EPQ, the optimal design of the control chart and the optimal preventive maintenance level. The effects of the three PM policies on EPQ and quality costs are illustrated using an example of a Weibull shock model with an increasing hazard rate.     

Short-Term Capacity Adjustment with Offline Production for a Flexible Manufacturing System under Abnormal Disturbances

Large production variations caused by abnormal disturbances can significantly reduce the production capacity of a flexible manufacturing system (FMS). To prevent production delays, short-term capacity adjustment strategies can be used to augment the capacity of the FMS, such as working overtime, using alternative tools that are suited for faster processing, and producing parts outside of the FMS. We propose a mixed integer programming (MIP) model to obtain an optimal production plan for a multi-machine FMS. Our model evaluates both the FMS loading decision and the effective use of short-term capacity adjustment strategies to minimize the total part production cost. We develop an iterative procedure to solve the model that uses the Lagrangian relaxation method for finding lower bounds and a Lagrangian heuristic for obtaining feasible solutions. The procedure exploits certain special structures found in the Lagrangian multipliers which enable us to obtain good solutions to reasonably large test problems quickly.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF WELFARE GAINS FROM GENETIC PROGRESS IN FORESTRY: GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM AND DISEQUILIBRIUM RESULTS

The paper contains an extension of existing results on the economics of tree improvement programs. The properties of the indirect utility function and the present value function are used to derive general equilibrium and disequilibrium cost–benefit rules for marginal projects resulting in an improved production function. Corresponding results for projects resulting in large second order effects in both prices and quantities are also provided, and indirect methods to estimate the net benefits are suggested. It is also briefly discussed how recreational and option values can be dealt with.     

Modeling sequence scrambling and related phenomena in mixed-model production lines

In this paper we examine the various effects that workstations and rework loops with identical parallel processors and stochastic processing times have on the performance of a mixed-model production line. Of particular interest are issues related to sequence scrambling. In many production systems (especially those operating on just-in-time or in-line vehicle sequencing principles), the sequence of orders is selected carefully to optimize line efficiency while taking into account various line balancing and product spacing constraints. However, this sequence is often altered due to stochastic factors during production. This leads to significant economic consequences, due to either the degraded performance of the production line, or the added cost of restoring the sequence (via the use of systems such as mix banks or automated storage and retrieval systems). We develop analytical formulas to quantify both the extent of sequence scrambling caused by a station of the production line, and the effects of this scrambling on downstream performance. We also develop a detailed Markov chain model to analyze related issues regarding line stoppages and throughput. We demonstrate the usefulness of our methods on a range of illustrative numerical examples, and discuss the implications from a managerial point of view.     

Well management in the North Sea

The purpose of this paper is to describe a planning model for the management of approximately 130 petroleum-producing wells in the North Sea. The objective is to form a better basis for the decisions about which wells to produce from and which to shut down during a period. Every well is dealt with individually as the production potential and chemical composition are different. The total flow consists of six saleable components: gas, four NGL products, and oil. The production may be curtailed due to the capacities of the platforms, gathering centre, pipelines and refinery plants. The total gas production is available for fulfilling the gas contracts, injecting the gas into the reservoirs or using the gas as fuel. There exist contracts for some of the NGL products, while the rest of the NGL products and oil are sold on the free market. The well-management model is solved by means of a standard mathematical programming code, and computational results are given for a planning problem with four different data sets.     

A Dynamic Programming Approach to Determine Optimal Manpower Recruitment Policies

The manpower planning models available in the literature have dealt with how changes take place in a manpower planning system, under various operating and policy constraints. However, none of these models has identified the manpower system costs. In this paper we have identified various manpower system costs. Further, we have developed a manpower planning model with the objective of minimizing the manpower system costs. The model has been found to be analogous to the Wagner-Whitin model in production/inventory management. A numerical example has been given to illustrate the model.