The new robust conic GPLM method with an application to finance: prediction of credit default

This paper contributes to classification and identification in modern finance through advanced optimization. In the last few decades, financial misalignments and, thereby, financial crises have been increasing in numbers due to the rearrangement of the financial world. In this study, as one of the most remarkable of these, countries’ debt crises, which result from illiquidity, are tried to predict with some macroeconomic variables. The methodology consists of a combination of two predictive regression models, logistic regression and robust conic multivariate adaptive regression splines (RCMARS), as linear and nonlinear parts of a generalized partial linear model. RCMARS has an advantage of coping with the noise in both input and output data and of obtaining more consistent optimization results than CMARS. An advanced version of conic generalized partial linear model which includes robustification of the data set is introduced: robust conic generalized partial linear model (RCGPLM). This new model is applied on a data set that belongs to 45 emerging markets with 1,019 observations between the years 1980 and 2005.     

Robust optimization in spline regression models for multi-model regulatory networks under polyhedral uncertainty

In our study, we integrate the data uncertainty of real-world models into our regulatory systems and robustify them. We newly introduce and analyse robust time-discrete target–environment regulatory systems under polyhedral uncertainty through robust optimization. Robust optimization has reached a great importance as a modelling framework for immunizing against parametric uncertainties and the integration of uncertain data is of considerable importance for the model’s reliability of a highly interconnected system. Then, we present a numerical example to demonstrate the efficiency of our new robust regression method for regulatory networks. The results indicate that our approach can successfully approximate the target–environment interaction, based on the expression values of all targets and environmental factors.     

Linear Huber M-Estimator Under Ellipsoidal Data Uncertainty

The purpose of this note is to present a robust counterpart of the Huber estimation problem in the sense of Ben-Tal and Nemirovski when the data elements are subject to ellipsoidal uncertainty. The robust counterparts are polynomially solvable second-order cone programs with the strong duality property. We illustrate the effectiveness of the robust counterpart approach on a numerical example.     

On robust duality for fractional programming with uncertainty data

In this paper, we present a duality theory for fractional programming problems in the face of data uncertainty via robust optimization. By employing conjugate analysis, we establish robust strong duality for an uncertain fractional programming problem and its uncertain Wolfe dual programming problem by showing strong duality between the deterministic counterparts: robust counterpart of the primal model and the optimistic counterpart of its dual problem. We show that our results encompass as special cases some programming problems considered in the recent literature. Moreover, we also show that robust strong duality always holds for linear fractional programming problems under scenario data uncertainty or constraint-wise interval uncertainty, and that the optimistic counterpart of the dual is tractable computationally.     

鲁棒信用风险优化的线性锥优化模型

考虑了具有强健性的信用风险优化问题. 根据最差条件在值风险度量信用风险的方法,建立了信用风险优化问题的模型. 由于信用风险的损失分布存在不确定性,考虑了两类不确定性区间,即箱子型区间和椭球型区间. 把具有强健性的信用风险优化问题分别转化成线性规划问题和二阶锥规划问题. 最后,通过一个信用风险问题的例子来说明此模型的有效性.     

Robust shift generation in workforce planning

In this paper we apply robust optimization techniques to the shift generation problem in workforce planning. At the time that the shifts are generated, there is often much uncertainty in the workload predictions. We propose a model to generate shifts that are robust against this uncertainty. An adversarial approach is used to solve the resulting robust optimization model. In each iteration an integer nonlinear knapsack problem is solved to calculate the worst case workload scenario. We apply the approach to generate shifts in a real-life Air Traffic Controller workforce planning problem. The numerical results show the value of our approach.     

Robust optimization with applications to game theory

In this article, we investigate robust optimization equilibria with two players, in which each player can neither evaluate his opponent's strategy nor his own cost matrix accurately while may estimate a bounded set of the strategy or cost matrix. We obtain a result that solving this equilibria can be formulated as solving a second-order cone complementarity problem under an ellipsoid uncertainty set or a mixed complementarity problem under a box uncertainty set. We present some numerical results to illustrate the behaviour of robust optimization equilibria.     

Support vector machine classifiers with uncertain knowledge sets via robust optimization

In this article we study support vector machine (SVM) classifiers in the face of uncertain knowledge sets and show how data uncertainty in knowledge sets can be treated in SVM classification by employing robust optimization. We present knowledge-based SVM classifiers with uncertain knowledge sets using convex quadratic optimization duality. We show that the knowledge-based SVM, where prior knowledge is in the form of uncertain linear constraints, results in an uncertain convex optimization problem with a set containment constraint. Using a new extension of Farkas' lemma, we reformulate the robust counterpart of the uncertain convex optimization problem in the case of interval uncertainty as a convex quadratic optimization problem. We then reformulate the resulting convex optimization problems as a simple quadratic optimization problem with non-negativity constraints using the Lagrange duality. We obtain the solution of the converted problem by a fixed point iterative algorithm and establish the convergence of the algorithm. We finally present some preliminary results of our computational experiments of the method.     

Robust static hedging of barrier options in stochastic volatility models

Static hedge portfolios for barrier options are extremely sensitive with respect to changes of the volatility surface. In this paper we develop a semi-infinite programming formulation of the static super-replication problem in stochastic volatility models which allows to robustify the hedge against model parameter uncertainty in the sense of a worst case design. From a financial point of view this robustness guarantees the hedge performance for an infinite number of future volatility surface scenarios including volatility shocks and changes of the skew. After proving existence of such robust hedge portfolios and presenting an algorithm to numerically solve the underlying optimization problem, we apply the approach to a detailed example. Surprisingly, the optimal robust portfolios are only marginally more expensive than the barrier option itself.     

Equality Constraints in Multiobjective Robust Design Optimization: Decision Making Problem

Robust design optimization (RDO) problems can generally be formulated by incorporating uncertainty into the corresponding deterministic problems. In this context, a careful formulation of deterministic equality constraints into the robust domain is necessary to avoid infeasible designs under uncertain conditions. The challenge of formulating equality constraints is compounded in multiobjective RDO problems. Modeling the tradeoffs between the mean of the performance and the variation of the performance for each design objective in a multiobjective RDO problem is itself a complex task. A judicious formulation of equality constraints adds to this complexity because additional tradeoffs are introduced between constraint satisfaction under uncertainty and multiobjective performance. Equality constraints under uncertainty in multiobjective problems can therefore pose a complicated decision making problem. In this paper, we provide a new problem formulation that can be used as an effective multiobjective decision making tool, with emphasis on equality constraints. We present two numerical examples to illustrate our theoretical developments.     

Robust multiobjective optimization & applications in portfolio optimization

Motivated by Markowitz portfolio optimization problems under uncertainty in the problem data, we consider general convex parametric multiobjective optimization problems under data uncertainty. For the first time, this uncertainty is treated by a robust multiobjective formulation in the gist of Ben-Tal and Nemirovski. For this novel formulation, we investigate its relationship to the original multiobjective formulation as well as to its scalarizations. Further, we provide a characterization of the location of the robust Pareto frontier with respect to the corresponding original Pareto frontier and show that standard techniques from multiobjective optimization can be employed to characterize this robust efficient frontier. We illustrate our results based on a standard mean–variance problem.     

Two-stage network constrained robust unit commitment problem

For a current deregulated power system, a large amount of operating reserve is often required to maintain the reliability of the power system using traditional approaches. In this paper, we propose a two-stage robust optimization model to address the network constrained unit commitment problem under uncertainty. In our approach, uncertain problem parameters are assumed to be within a given uncertainty set. We study cases with and without transmission capacity and ramp-rate limits (The latter case was described in Zhang and Guan (2009), for which the analysis part is included in Section 3 in this paper). We also analyze solution schemes to solve each problem that include an exact solution approach and an efficient heuristic approach that provides tight lower and upper bounds for the general network constrained robust unit commitment problem. The final computational experiments on an IEEE 118-bus system verify the effectiveness of our approaches, as compared to the nominal model without considering the uncertainty.     

Application of Robust Optimization to the Sawmill Planning Problem

Optimization models have been used to support decision making in the forest industry for a long time. However, several of those models are deterministic and do not address the variability that is present in some of the data. Robust Optimization is a methodology which can deal with the uncertainty or variability in optimization problems by computing a solution which is feasible for all possible scenarios of the data within a given uncertainty set. This paper presents the application of the Robust Optimization Methodology to a Sawmill Planning Problem. In the particular case of this problem, variability is assumed in the yield coefficients associated to the cutting patterns used. The main results show that the loss in the function objective value (the “Price of Robustness”), due to computing robust solutions, is not excessive. Moreover, the computed solutions remain feasible for a large proportion of randomly generated scenarios, and tend to preserve the structure of the nominal solution. We believe that these results provide an application area for Robust Optimization in which several source of uncertainty are present.     

Nonlinear robust optimization via sequential convex bilevel programming

In this paper, we present a novel sequential convex bilevel programming algorithm for the numerical solution of structured nonlinear min–max problems which arise in the context of semi-infinite programming. Here, our main motivation are nonlinear inequality constrained robust optimization problems. In the first part of the paper, we propose a conservative approximation strategy for such nonlinear and non-convex robust optimization problems: under the assumption that an upper bound for the curvature of the inequality constraints with respect to the uncertainty is given, we show how to formulate a lower-level concave min–max problem which approximates the robust counterpart in a conservative way. This approximation turns out to be exact in some relevant special cases and can be proven to be less conservative than existing approximation techniques that are based on linearization with respect to the uncertainties. In the second part of the paper, we review existing theory on optimality conditions for nonlinear lower-level concave min–max problems which arise in the context of semi-infinite programming. Regarding the optimality conditions for the concave lower level maximization problems as a constraint of the upper level minimization problem, we end up with a structured mathematical program with complementarity constraints (MPCC). The special hierarchical structure of this MPCC can be exploited in a novel sequential convex bilevel programming algorithm. We discuss the surprisingly strong global and locally quadratic convergence properties of this method, which can in this form neither be obtained with existing SQP methods nor with interior point relaxation techniques for general MPCCs. Finally, we discuss the application fields and implementation details of the new method and demonstrate the performance with a numerical example.     

On approximate solutions for robust convex semidefinite optimization problems

In this paper, we consider approximate solutions (\(\epsilon \)-solutions) for a convex semidefinite programming problem in the face of data uncertainty. Using robust optimization approach (worst-case approach), we prove an approximate optimality theorem and approximate duality theorems for \(\epsilon \)-solutions in robust convex semidefinite programming problem under the robust characteristic cone constraint qualification. Moreover, an example is given to illustrate the obtained results.     

Characterizations of robust solution set of convex programs with uncertain data

In this paper, we study convex programming problems with data uncertainty in both the objective function and the constraints. Under the framework of robust optimization, we employ a robust regularity condition, which is much weaker than the ones in the open literature, to establish various properties and characterizations of the set of all robust optimal solutions of the problems. These are expressed in term of subgradients, Lagrange multipliers and epigraphs of conjugate functions. We also present illustrative examples to show the significances of our theoretical results.     

Some characterizations of robust optimal solutions for uncertain convex optimization problems

In this paper, we consider robust optimal solutions for a convex optimization problem in the face of data uncertainty both in the objective and constraints. By using the properties of the subdifferential sum formulae, we first introduce a robust-type subdifferential constraint qualification, and then obtain some completely characterizations of the robust optimal solution of this uncertain convex optimization problem. We also investigate Wolfe type robust duality between the uncertain convex optimization problem and its uncertain dual problem by proving duality between the deterministic robust counterpart of the primal model and the optimistic counterpart of its dual problem. Moreover, we show that our results encompass as special cases some optimization problems considered in the recent literature.     

Robust generalized eigenvalue classifier with ellipsoidal uncertainty

Uncertainty is a concept associated with data acquisition and analysis, usually appearing in the form of noise or measure error, often due to some technological constraint. In supervised learning, uncertainty affects classification accuracy and yields low quality solutions. For this reason, it is essential to develop machine learning algorithms able to handle efficiently data with imprecision. In this paper we study this problem from a robust optimization perspective. We consider a supervised learning algorithm based on generalized eigenvalues and we provide a robust counterpart formulation and solution in case of ellipsoidal uncertainty sets. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed robust scheme on artificial and benchmark datasets from University of California Irvine (UCI) machine learning repository and we compare results against a robust implementation of Support Vector Machines.     

Competitive Multi-period Pricing for Perishable Products: A Robust Optimization Approach

We study a multi-period oligopolistic market for a single perishable product with fixed inventory. Our goal is to address the competitive aspect of the problem together with demand uncertainty using ideas from robust optimization and variational inequalities. The demand function for each seller has some associated uncertainty and we assume that the sellers would like to adopt a policy that is robust to adverse uncertain circumstances. We believe this is the first paper that uses robust optimization for dynamic pricing under competition. In particular, starting with a given fixed inventory, each seller competes over a multi-period time horizon in the market by setting prices and protection levels for each period at the beginning of the time horizon. Any unsold inventory at the end of the horizon is worthless. The sellers do not have the option of periodically reviewing and replenishing their inventory. We study non-cooperative Nash equilibrium policies for sellers under such a model. This kind of a setup can be used to model pricing of air fares, hotel reservations, bandwidth in communication networks, etc. In this paper we demonstrate our results through some numerical examples.     

Exact SDP reformulations of adjustable robust linear programs with box uncertainties under separable quadratic decision rules via SOS representations of non-negativity

In this paper we show that two-stage adjustable robust linear programs with affinely adjustable data in the face of box data uncertainties under separable quadratic decision rules admit exact semi-definite program (SDP) reformulations in the sense that they share the same optimal values and admit a one-to-one correspondence between the optimal solutions. This result allows adjustable robust solutions of these robust linear programs to be found by simply numerically solving their SDP reformulations. We achieve this result by first proving a special sum-of-squares representation of non-negativity of a separable non-convex quadratic function over box constraints. Our reformulation scheme is illustrated via numerical experiments by applying it to an inventory-production management problem with the demand uncertainty. They demonstrate that our separable quadratic decision rule method to two-stage decision-making performs better than the single-stage approach and is capable of solving the inventory production problem with a greater degree of uncertainty in the demand.