Evaluation of insurance products with guarantee in incomplete markets

Life insurance products are usually equipped with minimum guarantee and bonus provision options. The pricing of such claims is of vital importance for the insurance industry. Risk management, strategic asset allocation, and product design depend on the correct evaluation of the written options. Also regulators are interested in such issues since they have to be aware of the possible scenarios that the overall industry will face. Pricing techniques based on the Black & Scholes paradigm are often used, however, the hypotheses underneath this model are rarely met.To overcome Black & Scholes limitations, we develop a stochastic programming model to determine the fair price of the minimum guarantee and bonus provision options. We show that such a model covers the most relevant sources of incompleteness accounted in the financial and insurance literature. We provide extensive empirical analyses to highlight the effect of incompleteness on the fair value of the option, and show how the whole framework can be used as a valuable normative tool for insurance companies and regulators.     

DRL*: A hierarchy of strong block-decomposable linear relaxations for 0-1 MIPs

In this paper we introduce DRL*, a new hierarchy of linear relaxations for 0-1 mixed integer linear programs (MIPs), based on the idea of Reformulation-Linearization, and explore its links with the Lift-and-Project (L&P) hierarchy and the Sherali-Adams (RLT) hierarchy. The relaxations of the new hierarchy are shown to be intermediate in strength between L&P and RLT relaxations, and examples are shown for which it leads to significantly stronger bounds than those obtained from Lift-and-Project relaxations. On the other hand, as opposed to the RLT relaxations, a key advantage of the DRL* relaxations is that they feature a decomposable structure when formulated in extended space, therefore lending themselves to more efficient solution algorithms by properly exploiting decomposition. Links between DRL* and both the L&P and RLT hierarchies are further explored, and those constraints which should be added to the rank d L&P relaxation (resp to the rank d RLT relaxation) to make it coincide with the rank d DRL* relaxation (resp: to the rank d RLT relaxation) are identified. Furthermore, a full characterization of those 0-1 MIPs for which the DRL* and RLT relaxations coincide is obtained. As an application, we show that both the RLT and DRL* relaxations are the same up to rank d for the problem of optimizing a pseudoboolean function of degree d over a polyhedron. We report computational results comparing the strengths of the rank 2 L&P, DRL* and RLT relaxations. Impact on possible improved efficiency in computing some bounds for the quadratic assignment problem and other directions for future research are suggested in the conclusions.     

Optimal control and dependence modeling of insurance portfolios with Lévy dynamics

In this paper we are interested in optimizing proportional reinsurance and investment policies in a multidimensional Lévy-driven insurance model. The criterion is that of maximizing exponential utility. Solving the classical Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation yields that the optimal retention level keeps a constant amount of claims regardless of time and the company’s wealth level.A special feature of our construction is to allow for dependencies of the risk reserves in different business lines. Dependence is modeled via an Archimedean Lévy copula. We derive a sufficient and necessary condition for an Archimedean Lévy generator to create a multidimensional positive Lévy copula in arbitrary dimension.Based on these results we identify structure conditions for the generator and the Lévy measure of an Archimedean Lévy copula under which an insurance company reinsures a larger fraction of claims from one business line than from another.     

The distribution of tax payments in a Lévy insurance risk model with a surplus-dependent taxation structure

We study the distribution of tax payments in the model of Kyprianou and Zhou [Kyprianou, A.E., Zhou, X., 2009. General tax structures and the Lévy insurance risk model. J. Appl. Probab. (in press)], that is a Lévy insurance risk model with a surplus-dependent tax rate. More precisely, after a short discussion on the so-called tax identity, we derive a recursive formula for arbitrary moments of the discounted tax payments until ruin and we identify the distribution of the tax payments when there is no force of interest.     

Efficiency in the Greek insurance industry

This paper employs the two-stage procedure of Simar and Wilson (2007) to analyse the effects of deregulation on the efficiency of the Greek insurance industry. The efficiency is estimated by means of data envelopment analysis (DEA). The companies are ranked according to their CRS efficiency score for the period 1994–2003. The first stage results indicate a decline in efficiency over the sample period, while the second stage results confirm that the competition for market shares is a major driver of efficiency in the Greek insurance industry.     

日本寿险业效率变动实证研究:1998-2008

日本是世界上保险业最发达的国家之一.但自20世纪90年代以来随着泡沫经济的破灭,宏观经济和金融环境的恶化,日本保险业尤其是寿险业进入了停滞与调整期.面对这一情况,日本政府层面和公司层面都推出各种措施,振兴踯躅前行中的日本寿险业.利用数据包络分析(DEA)方法对1998 2008年期间日本全部寿险公司的技术效率、纯技术效率和规模效率及其变动趋势进行了测度,对日本寿险市场的发展演变历程进行全面分析,希望对中国寿险业的发展提供经验借鉴.     

Optimal consumption, investment and insurance with insurable risk for an investor in a Lévy market

Numerous researchers have applied the martingale approach for models driven by Lévy processes to study optimal investment problems. The aim of this paper is to apply the martingale approach to obtain a closed form solution for the optimal investment, consumption and insurance strategies of an individual in the presence of an insurable risk when the insurable risk and risky asset returns are described by Lévy processes and the utility is a constant absolute risk aversion (CARA). The model developed in this paper can potentially be applied to absorb large insurable losses in the absence of insurance protection and to examine the level of diminishing current utility and consumption.     

Can R&D expenditure avoid corporate bankruptcy? Comparison between Japanese machinery and electric equipment industries using DEA–discriminant analysis

This study compares data envelopment analysis–discriminant analysis (DEA–DA) with Altman’s financial ratio analysis to identify the position of DEA–DA in financial performance analysis. Then, this study applies DEA–DA to examine whether Research and Development (R&D) expenditure influences the financial performance of Japanese machinery industry and electric equipment industry. The investigation of DEA–DA identifies that the R&D expenditure makes a positive impact on the financial performance of Japanese machinery industry, but it yields a negative impact on Japanese electric equipment industry. The result implies that the influence of R&D expenditure on financial performance (including the avoidance of bankruptcy) depends upon the type of a manufacturing industry. A rationale regarding why such a discrepancy has occurred between the two Japanese manufacturing industries is because the life cycle of electric equipments is shorter than that of the machinery products. Furthermore, the electric equipment industry faces more fierce competition than the machinery industry. This study suggests that the Japanese electric equipment industry needs R&D expenditure for competition in its global market. However, it is a high risk and high return investment. In contrast, the Japanese machinery is a technologically mature industry where the R&D expenditure influences positively its financial performance. In this sense, the R&D expenditure is a low risk and necessary investment.     

A study of repairable parts inventory system operating under performance-based contract

Performance-Based Logistics (PBL) is becoming a dominant logistics support strategy, especially in the defense industry. PBL contracts are designed to serve the customer’s key performance measures, while the traditional contracts for after-sales services, such as Fixed-price (FP) and Cost-plus (C+), only provide insurance or incentive. In this research, we develop an inventory model for a repairable parts system operating under a PBL contract. We model the closed-loop inventory system as an M/M/m queue in which component failures are Poisson distributed and the repair times at the service facility are exponential. Our model provides the supplier and the customer increased flexibility in achieving target availability. Analysis of key parameters suggests that to improve the availability of the system with repairable spare parts, the supplier should work to improve the components reliability and efficiency of repair facility, rather than the base stock level, which has minimal impact on system availability.     

Comparative evaluation of performance of national R&D programs with heterogeneous objectives: A DEA approach

The strategic importance of performance evaluation of national R&D programs is highlighted as the resource allocation draws more attention in R&D policy agenda. Due to the heterogeneity of national R&D programs’ objectives, however, it is intractably difficult to relatively evaluate multiple programs and, consequently, few studies have been conducted on the performance comparison of the R&D programs. This study measures and compares the performance of national R&D programs using data envelopment analysis (DEA). Since DEA allows each DMU to choose the optimal weights of inputs and outputs which maximize its efficiency, it can mirror R&D programs’ unique characteristics by assigning relatively high weights to the variables in which each program has strength. Every project in every R&D program is evaluated together based on the DEA model for comparison of efficiency among different systems. Kruskal–Wallis test with a post hoc Mann–Whitney U test is then run to compare performance of R&D programs. Two alternative approaches to incorporating the importance of variables, the AR model and output integration, are also introduced. The results are expected to provide policy implications for effectively formulating and implementing national R&D programs.     

Convex Normalizations in Lift-and-Project Methods for 0–1 Programming

Branch-and-Cut algorithms for general 0–1 mixed integer programs can be successfully implemented by using Lift-and-Project (L&P) methods to generate cuts. L&P cuts are drawn from a cone of valid inequalities that is unbounded and, thus, needs to be truncated, or normalized. We consider general normalizations defined by arbitrary closed convex sets and derive dual problems for generating L&P cuts. This unified theoretical framework generalizes and covers a wide group of already known normalizations. We also give conditions for proving finite convergence of the cutting plane procedure that results from using such general L&P cuts.     

De Finetti’s optimal dividends problem with an affine penalty function at ruin

In a Lévy insurance risk model, under the assumption that the tail of the Lévy measure is log-convex, we show that either a horizontal barrier strategy or the take-the-money-and-run strategy maximizes, among all admissible strategies, the dividend payments subject to an affine penalty function at ruin. As a key step for the proof, we prove that, under the aforementioned condition on the jump measure, the scale function of the spectrally negative Lévy process has a log-convex derivative.     

Long-tail longitudinal modeling of insurance company expenses

The insurance industry is known to have high operating expenses in the financial services sector. Insurers, investors and regulators are interested in models to understand the behavior of expenses. However, the current practice ignores skewness, occasional negative values as well as their temporal dependence.Addressing these three features, this paper develops a longitudinal model of insurance company expenses that can be used for prediction, to identify unusual behavior, and to measure firm efficiency. Specifically, we use a three-parameter asymmetric Laplace density for the marginal distribution of insurers’ expenses in each year. Copula functions are employed to accommodate their temporal dependence. As a function of explanatory variables, the location parameter allows us to analyze an insurer’s expenses in light of the firm’s characteristics. Our model can be interpreted as a longitudinal quantile regression.The analysis is performed using property-casualty insurance company data from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners of years 2001-2006. Due to the long-tailed nature of insurers’ expenses, two alternative approaches are proposed to improve the performance of the longitudinal quantile regression model: rescaling and transformation. Predictive densities are derived that allow one to compare the predictions for individual insurers in a hold-out-sample. Both predictive models are shown to be reasonable with the rescaling method outperforming the transformation method. Compared with standard longitudinal models, our model is shown to be superior in identifying insurers’ unusual behavior.     

Integrated insurance risk models with exponential Lévy investment

We consider an insurance risk model for the cashflow of an insurance company, which invests its reserve into a portfolio consisting of risky and riskless assets. The price of the risky asset is modeled by an exponential Lévy process. We derive the integrated risk process and the corresponding discounted net loss process. We calculate certain quantities as characteristic functions and moments. We also show under weak conditions stationarity of the discounted net loss process and derive the left and right tail behavior of the model. Our results show that the model carries a high risk, which may originate either from large insurance claims or from the risky investment.     

Parameter estimation of a bivariate compound Poisson process

In this article, we review the concept of a Lévy copula to describe the dependence structure of a bivariate compound Poisson process. In this first statistical approach we consider a parametric model for the Lévy copula and estimate the parameters of the full dependent model based on a maximum likelihood approach. This approach ensures that the estimated model remains in the class of multivariate compound Poisson processes. A simulation study investigates the small sample behaviour of the MLEs, where we also suggest a new simulation algorithm. Finally, we apply our method to Danish fire insurance data.     

Efficiency decomposition in network data envelopment analysis: A relational model

Traditional studies in data envelopment analysis (DEA) view systems as a whole when measuring the efficiency, ignoring the operation of individual processes within a system. This paper builds a relational network DEA model, taking into account the interrelationship of the processes within the system, to measure the efficiency of the system and those of the processes at the same time. The system efficiency thus measured more properly represents the aggregate performance of the component processes. By introducing dummy processes, the original network system can be transformed into a series system where each stage in the series is of a parallel structure. Based on these series and parallel structures, the efficiency of the system is decomposed into the product of the efficiencies of the stages in the series and the inefficiency slack of each stage into the sum of the inefficiency slacks of its component processes connected in parallel. With efficiency decomposition, the process which causes the inefficient operation of the system can be identified for future improvement. An example of the non-life insurance industry in Taiwan illustrates the whole idea.     

Multi-period efficiency and Malmquist productivity index in two-stage production systems

Conventional two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) models measure the overall performance of a production system composed of two stages (processes) in a specified period of time, where variations in different periods are ignored. This paper takes the operations of individual periods into account to develop a multi-period two-stage DEA model, which is able to measure the overall and period efficiencies at the same time, with the former expressed as a weighted average of the latter. Since the efficiency of a two-stage system in a period is the product of the two process efficiencies, the overall efficiency of a decision making unit (DMU) in the specified period of time can be decomposed into the process efficiency of each period. Based on this decomposition, the sources of inefficiency in a DMU can be identified. The efficiencies measured from the model can also be used to calculate a common-weight global Malmquist productivity index (MPI) between two periods, in that the overall MPI is the product of the two process MPIs. The non-life insurance industry in Taiwan is used to verify the proposed model, and to explain why some companies performed unsatisfactorily in the specified period of time.     

Univariate and bivariate GPD methods for predicting extreme wind storm losses

Wind storm and hurricane risks are attracting increased attention as a result of recent catastrophic events. The aim of this paper is to select, tailor, and develop extreme value methods for use in wind storm insurance. The methods are applied to the 1982-2005 losses for the largest Swedish insurance company, the Länsförsäkringar group. Both a univariate and a new bivariate Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) gave models which fitted the data well. The bivariate model led to lower estimates of risk, except for extreme cases, but taking statistical uncertainty into account the two models lead to qualitatively similar results. We believe that the bivariate model provided the most realistic picture of the real uncertainties. It additionally made it possible to explore the effects of changes in the insurance portfolio, and showed that loss distributions are rather insensitive to portfolio changes. We found a small trend in the sizes of small individual claims, but no other trends. Finally, we believe that companies should develop systematic ways of thinking about “not yet seen” disasters.     

An integrated performance evaluation of financial holding companies in Taiwan

There has been a worldwide trend for financial institutions to become larger in scale and more diversified in scope, with Taiwan being no exception. Fourteen financial holding companies (FHCs) have each begun to function as a management umbrella in Taiwan by investing in different types of financial services such as banking, insurance, and securities. This paper focuses on this local financing issue from an integrated methodological perspective by model innovations proposed in several earlier studies. For example, the efficiency of profitability and marketability are combined to evaluate the FHCs’ performance. To conduct a valid and reliable evaluation process while applying the FHC’s case in Taiwan, we integrate the slacks-based measure (SBM) and slacks-based measure of super efficiency (super-SBM) models in order to directly handle the slacks and identify the best performers. A new scheme that deals with the negative output data in the SBM/super-SBM is also introduced. Inter-temporal efficiency change, which is decomposed into ‘catch-up’ and ‘frontier-shift’ effects, is analyzed by means of the SBM-based Malmquist index. A decision-making matrix is also presented to help the FHCs’ managerial authorities position themselves in the industry. The above techniques show with a high degree of consistency that large-sized FHCs perform better than small-sized ones.     

Occupation times of spectrally negative Lévy processes with applications

In this paper, we compute the Laplace transform of occupation times (of the negative half-line) of spectrally negative Lévy processes. Our results are extensions of known results for standard Brownian motion and jump-diffusion processes. The results are expressed in terms of the so-called scale functions of the spectrally negative Lévy process and its Laplace exponent. Applications to insurance risk models are also presented.