An exact minimum variance filter for a class of discrete time systems with random parameter perturbations

An exact, closed-form minimum variance filter is designed for a class of discrete time uncertain systems which allows for both multiplicative and additive noise sources. The multiplicative noise model includes a popular class of models (Cox-Ingersoll-Ross type models) in econometrics. The parameters of the system under consideration which describe the state transition are assumed to be subject to stochastic uncertainties. The problem addressed is the design of a filter that minimizes the trace of the estimation error variance. Sensitivity of the new filter to the size of parameter uncertainty, in terms of the variance of parameter perturbations, is also considered. We refer to the new filter as the ‘perturbed Kalman filter’ (PKF) since it reduces to the traditional (or unperturbed) Kalman filter as the size of stochastic perturbation approaches zero. We also consider a related approximate filtering heuristic for univariate time series and we refer to filter based on this heuristic as approximate perturbed Kalman filter (APKF). We test the performance of our new filters on three simulated numerical examples and compare the results with unperturbed Kalman filter that ignores the uncertainty in the transition equation. Through numerical examples, PKF and APKF are shown to outperform the traditional (or unperturbed) Kalman filter in terms of the size of the estimation error when stochastic uncertainties are present, even when the size of stochastic uncertainty is inaccurately identified.     

Marginal filtering in large state spaces

Recognising everyday activities including information about the context requires to handle large state spaces. The usage of wearable sensors like six degree of freedom accelerometers increases complexity even more. Common approaches are unable to maintain an accurate belief state within such complex domains. We show how marginal filtering can overcome limitations of standard particle filtering and efficiently infer the context of actions. Symbolic models of human behaviour are used to recognise activities in two different settings with different state space sizes. Based on these scenarios we compare the marginal filter to the standard particle filter. An evaluation shows that the marginal filter performs comparably in small state spaces but outperforms the particle filter in large state spaces.     

On a class of SGS filters for LES with shape preserving concatenation properties

We develop a class of filter functions for large-eddy simulation which have the key property that multiple successive application even with different filter widths is equal to a single filtering employing filters from the same class but at an extended or equal filter width. In the context of the filter class development we obtain a functional delay equation which for special cases may be solved completely general. The presently developed class of filters may be used in conjunction with certain sub-grid scale models such as the approximate deconvolution model [3] where explicit multiple filtering is needed. Hence utilizing filters from the present class computational cost of filter evaluation may be considerably reduced.     

Bayesian Inference via Filtering for a Class of Counting Processes: Application to the Micromovement of Asset Price

This paper highlights recent developments in a rich class of counting process models for the micromovement of asset price and in the Bayesian inference (estimation and model selection) via filtering for the class of models. A specific micromovement model built upon linear Brownian motion with jumping stochastic volatility is used to demonstrate the procedure to develop a micromovement model with specific tick-level sample characteristics. The model is further used to demonstrate the procedure to implement Bayes estimation via filtering, namely, to construct a recursive algorithm for computing the trade-by-trade Bayes parameter estimates, especially for the stochastic volatility. The consistency of the recursive algorithm model is proven. Simulation and real-data examples are provided as well as a brief example of Bayesian model selection via filtering.     

On the robustness of two-stage estimators

The aim of this note is to provide a general framework for the analysis of the robustness properties of a broad class of two-stage models. We derive the influence function, the change-of-variance function, and the asymptotic variance of a general two-stage M-estimator, and provide their interpretations. We illustrate our results in the case of the two-stage maximum likelihood estimator and the two-stage least squares estimator.     

New prior near-ignorance models on the simplex

The aim of this paper is to derive new near-ignorance models on the probability simplex, which do not directly involve the Dirichlet distribution and, thus, are alternative to the Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM). We focus our investigation on a particular class of distributions on the simplex which is known as the class of Normalized Infinitely Divisible (NID) distributions; it includes the Dirichlet distribution as a particular case. For this class it is possible to derive general formulae for prior and posterior predictive inferences, by exploiting the Lévy–Khintchine representation theorem. This allows us to generally characterize the near-ignorance properties of the NID class. After deriving these general properties, we focus our attention on three members of this class. We will show that one of these near-ignorance models satisfies the representation invariance principle and, for a given value of the prior strength, always provides inferences that encompass those of the IDM. The other two models do not satisfy this principle, but their imprecision depends linearly or almost linearly on the number of observed categories; we argue that this is sometimes a desirable property for a predictive model.     

A Monte Carlo Filtering Approach for Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates

We develop new methodology for estimation of general class of term structure models based on a Monte Carlo filtering approach. We utilize the generalized state space model which can be naturally applied to the estimation of the term structure models based on the Markov state processes. It is also possible to introduce measurement errors in the general way without any bias. Moreover, the Monte Carlo filter can be applied even to the models in which the zero-coupon bonds' prices can not be analytically obtained. As an example, we apply the method to LIBORs (London Inter Bank Offered Rates) and interest rates swaps in the Japanese market and show the usefulness of our approach.     

Hidden Markov Filter Estimation of the Occurrence Time of an Event in a Financial Market

Abstract

In this paper, we use filtering techniques to estimate the occurrence time of an event in a financial market. The occurrence time is being viewed as a Markov stopping time with respect to the σ-field generated by a hidden Markov process. We also generalize our result to the Nth occurrence time of that event.     

Approximate filter for a two-dimensional nonlinear diffusion observed in a correlated low noise channel

The purpose of this article is to study a nonlinear filtering problem when the signal is a two-dimensional process from which only the second component is noisy and when only its first (and unnoisy) component is observed in a correlated low noise channel. We propose an approximate finite-dimensional filter and we prove that the filtering error converges to zero. The order of magnitude of the error between the approximate filter and the optimal filter, as the observation noise vanishes, is computed.     

Regression models for multivariate ordered responses via the Plackett distribution

We investigate the properties of a class of discrete multivariate distributions whose univariate marginals have ordered categories, all the bivariate marginals, like in the Plackett distribution, have log-odds ratios which do not depend on cut points and all higher-order interactions are constrained to 0. We show that this class of distributions may be interpreted as a discretized version of a multivariate continuous distribution having univariate logistic marginals. Convenient features of this class relative to the class of ordered probit models (the discretized version of the multivariate normal) are highlighted. Relevant properties of this distribution like quadratic log-linear expansion, invariance to collapsing of adjacent categories, properties related to positive dependence, marginalization and conditioning are discussed briefly. When continuous explanatory variables are available, regression models may be fitted to relate the univariate logits (as in a proportional odds model) and the log-odds ratios to covariates.     

Finite-dimensional filter for a class of nonlinear systems with correlated noises

The purpose of this article is to compute an explicit formula for the unnormalized conditional density for the filter associated with a nonlinear filtering problem with correlated noises and a signal process with nonlinear terms in the drift. This article extends the result of Daum to nonlinear filtering systems with correlated noises and incorporates both the Kalman–Bucy and Bene? filters as particular cases.     

Extended and unscented filtering algorithms using one-step randomly delayed observations

In this paper, the least squares filtering problem is investigated for a class of nonlinear discrete-time stochastic systems using observations with stochastic delays contaminated by additive white noise. The delay is considered to be random and modelled by a binary white noise with values of zero or one; these values indicate that the measurement arrives on time or that it is delayed by one sampling time. Using two different approximations of the first and second-order statistics of a nonlinear transformation of a random vector, we propose two filtering algorithms; the first is based on linear approximations of the system equations and the second on approximations using the scaled unscented transformation. These algorithms generalize the extended and unscented Kalman filters to the case in which the arrival of measurements can be one-step delayed and, hence, the measurement available to estimate the state may not be up-to-date. The accuracy of the different approximations is also analyzed and the performance of the proposed algorithms is compared in a numerical simulation example.     

Strong Propagations of Chaos in Moran's Type Particle Interpretations of Feynman–Kac Measures

Abstract

This article is concerned with strong propagations of chaos properties in Moran's type particle interpretations of continuous time Feynman–Kac formulae. These particle schemes can also be seen as approximating models of simple generalized spatially homogeneous Boltzmann equations. We provide a simple and original semigroup analysis based on empirical tensor measures combinatorics properties, martingales techniques, and coupling arguments. We also design a general and abstract framework without any topological assumption on the state space. This yields a natural way to analyze the propagations of chaos properties for interacting particle models on path space. Applications to genealogical type particle algorithms for the nonlinear filtering and smoothing problem are also discussed.     

The effect of noise reduction in measuring the linear and nonlinear dependency of financial markets

The daily closing prices of several stock market indices are examined to analyse whether noise reduction matters in measuring dependencies of the financial series. We consider the effect of noise reduction on the linear and nonlinear measure of dependencies. We also use singular spectrum analysis as a powerful method for filtering financial series. We compare the results with those obtained by ARMA and GARCH models as linear and nonlinear methods for filtering the series. We also examine the findings on an artificial data set namely the Hénon map.     

Asymptotic stability, ergodicity and other asymptotic properties of the nonlinear filter

In this work we study connections between various asymptotic properties of the nonlinear filter. It is assumed that the signal has a unique invariant probability measure. The key property of interest is expressed in terms of a relationship between the observation σ field and the tail σ field of the signal, in the stationary filtering problem. This property can be viewed as the permissibility of the interchange of the order of the operations of maximum and countable intersection for certain σ-fields. Under suitable conditions, it is shown that the above property is equivalent to various desirable properties of the filter such as

(a) uniqueness of invariant measure for the signal,

(b) uniqueness of invariant measure for the pair (signal, filter),

(c) a finite memory property of the filter,

(d) a property of finite time dependence between the signal and observation σ fields and

(e) asymptotic stability of the filter.

Previous works on the asymptotic stability of the filter for a variety of filtering models then identify a rich class of filtering problems for which the above equivalent properties hold.     

Newton and Quasi-Newton Methods for Normal Maps with Polyhedral Sets

This paper is devoted to a search for a guaranteed counterpart of the stochastic Kalman filter. We study the guaranteed filtering of a linear system such that the phase state and external disturbance form a vector subject to an ellipsoidal bound. This seemingly exotic setup can be justified by an analogy with the observation of Gaussian processes. Unfortunately, the resulting guaranteed filtering supplies us an ellipsoid approximating the localization domain for the state vector, but not the localization domain itself, and turns out to be more difficult compared to the Kalman filter. Our main results consist of an explicit evaluation of the Hamiltonians. In principle, this permits us to write explicitly the equations of the guaranteed filter.     

A wavelet filtering based estimation of output gap

Accurate estimation of output gap is an important and challenging problem for any economy. We consider here the problem of estimating the output gap for the Indian economy. The estimation of output gap involves a hypothetical variable, the potential output of the economy. In this paper, we propose a wavelet filtering based technique for estimation of output gap using monthly the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) series. We compare the results obtained using the proposed wavelet based technique with the widely used Hodrick-Prescott filtering and Seasonal ARIMA modeling based techniques. In order to compare the output gap estimated using the proposed technique with the other techniques, we explore the causal relationship between the estimates of output gap and the growth rate of an equity market indicator. It is observed that the wavelet filtering technique gives better results than the more popular econometric and standard time-series modeling techniques.     

A new method of proving structural properties for certain class of stochastic dynamic control problems

This paper introduces the multimodularity concept to study structural properties for certain class of stochastic dynamic control problems through a new efficient approach. We demonstrate that this approach can substantially simplify the proofs of the main results of one recent article and provide an alternative method for two other models in the literature.     

Asymptotically (in)dependent multivariate maxima of moving maxima processes

Smith and Weissman introduced a M4 class of processes which are very flexible models for temporally dependent multivariate extreme value processes. However all variables in these M4 models are asymptotically dependent and what this paper does is to extend this M4 class in a number of ways to produce classes of models which are also asymptotically independent. We shall study properties of the proposed models. In particular, asymptotic dependence indexes, coefficients of tail dependence, and extremal indexes are derived for each case.     

Tangential frequency filtering decompositions for symmetric matrices

Summary. The tangential frequency filtering decomposition (TFFD) is introduced. The convergence theory of an iterative scheme based on the TFFD for symmetric matrices is the focus of this paper. The existence of the TFFD and the convergence of the induced iterative algorithm is shown for symmetric and positive definite matrices. Convergence rates independent of the number of unknowns are proven for a smaller class of matrices. Using this framework, the convergence independent of the number of unknowns is shown for Wittum's frequency filtering decomposition. Some characteristic properties of the TFFD are illustrated and results of several numerical experiments are presented. Received April 1, 1996 / Revised version July 4, 1996