Stochastic Volatility Model with Filtering

Abstract

We generalize the stochastic volatility model by allowing the volatility to follow different dynamics in different states of the world. The dynamics of the “states of the world” are represented by a Markov chain. We estimate all the parameters by using the filtering and the EM algorithms. Closed form estimates for all parameters are derived in this paper. These estimates can be updated using new information as it arrives.     

A Non-Linear Filter

Abstract

Using a measure change related to Bayes' rule recursive estimates are obtained for an approximate conditional density where a state process has deterministic dynamics and it is observed in additive Gaussian noise.     

Filtering of a Multi-Dimension Stochastic Volatility Model

In this article, we study a stochastic volatility model for a class of risky assets. We assume that the volatilities of the assets are driven by a common state of economy, which is unobservable and represented by a hidden Markov chain. Under this hidden Markov model (HMM), we develop recursively computable filtering equations for certain functionals of the chain. Expectation maximization (EM) parameter estimation is then used. Applications to an optimal asset allocation problem with mean-variance utility are given.     

On filtering and estimation of a threshold stochastic volatility model

We derive a nonlinear filter and the corresponding filter-based estimates for a threshold autoregressive stochastic volatility (TARSV) model. Using the technique of a reference probability measure, we derive a nonlinear filter for the hidden volatility and related quantities. The filter-based estimates for the unknown parameters are then obtained from the EM algorithm.     

A Nonlinear Filter with Fractional Gaussian Noise

Using a measure change, an exact estimate and an approximate recursive estimate are obtained for the conditional density of a hidden signal and a parameter in a state space model, where the hidden signal has deterministic dynamics and it is observed in fractional Gaussian noise.     

完全数据下Weibull分布参数的极大似然估计

在完全数据条件下对Weibull分布,分别使用Newton-Raphson算法、CM算法及修正的CM算法进行完全数据Weibull分布参数的极大似然估计计算,并且在得到相应的迭代公式后,进行随机模拟.从模拟结果来分析这三种算法在处理Weibull分布参数的极大似然估计的优良性.     

A partially linearized sigma point filter for latent state estimation in nonlinear time series models

A new technique for the latent state estimation of a wide class of nonlinear time series models is proposed. In particular, we develop a partially linearized sigma point filter in which random samples of possible state values are generated at the prediction step using an exact moment-matching algorithm and then a linear programming based procedure is used in the update step of the state estimation. The effectiveness of the new filtering procedure is assessed via a simulation example that deals with a highly nonlinear, multivariate time series representing an interest rate process.     

基于状态空间SV-T-MN模型的股指波动率预测

本文考虑到金融收益率序列的"尖峰厚尾"和波动持续性等特征,针对厚尾SV-T模型的波动率样本外预测问题,提出了基于状态空间下的SV-T-MN(SV-T with Mixture-of-Normal)模型。首先根据MCMC方法估计SV-T模型参数,然后由EM算法估计混合正态参数,最后利用近似滤波(AMF)算法实现SV-T-MN模型的样本外预测。对KF、EKF、AMF进行的模拟研究表明高斯混合状态空间下的AMF更有效。通过对上证指数和深证成指的股指日收益率序列的实证研究结果表明,在五大损失函数评价准则下,基于状态空间SV-T-MN模型能有效刻画金融收益率序列和尾部的波动性,相比SV-N-MN模型具有更好的优越性。     

Adaptive Estimation of FCG Using Nonlinear State-Space Models

Abstract

In this paper, an efficient adaptive nonlinear algorithm for estimation and identification, the so-called adaptive Lainiotis filter (ALF), is applied to the problem of fatigue crack growth (FCG) estimation, identification, and prediction of the final crack (failure). A suitable nonlinear state-space FCG model is introduced for both ALF and extended Kalman filter (EKF). Both algorithms are tested in order to compare their efficiency. Through extensive analysis and simulation, it is demonstrated that the ALF has superior performance both in FCG estimation, as well as in predicting the remaining lifetime to failure. Furthermore, it is shown that the ALF is faster and easier to implement in a parallel/distributed processing mode, and much more robust than the classic EKF.     

一类时滞非线性伪抛物型方程的有界解

本文讨论了一类时滞非线性伪抛物型方程Cauchy问题有界解的存在唯一性问题 ,给出了有界解存在唯一的充分条件 .     

具有测量误差的非线性模型的Bayes估计

测量中大量的函数模型都是非线性回归模型．当回归变量含有一定的测量误差时，我们得到非线性测量误差模型．本讨论了这种模型中未知参数具有正态先验分布时的参数Bayes估计方法，并对这种估计进行了影响分析，证明了删除模型与均值漂移模型中参数的Bayes估计相同，利用Cook统计量给出了删除模型下参数的Bayes估计的影响度量．     

Autocovariance Function Estimation via Penalized Regression

The work revisits the autocovariance function estimation, a fundamental problem in statistical inference for time series. We convert the function estimation problem into constrained penalized regression with a generalized penalty that provides us with flexible and accurate estimation, and study the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator. In case of a nonzero mean time series, we apply a penalized regression technique to a differenced time series, which does not require a separate detrending procedure. In penalized regression, selection of tuning parameters is critical and we propose four different data-driven criteria to determine them. A simulation study shows effectiveness of the tuning parameter selection and that the proposed approach is superior to three existing methods. We also briefly discuss the extension of the proposed approach to interval-valued time series. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Functional Optimal Estimation Problems and Their Solution by Nonlinear Approximation Schemes

The design of state estimators for nonlinear dynamic systems affected by disturbances is addressed in a functional optimization framework. The estimator contains an innovation function that has to be chosen within a suitably defined class of functions in such a way to minimize a cost functional given by the worst-case ratio of the ℒ _p norms of the estimation error and the disturbances. Since this entails an infinite-dimensional optimization problem that under general hypotheses cannot be solved analytically, an approximate solution is sought by minimizing the cost functional over linear combinations of simple “basis functions,” represented by computational units with adjustable parameters. The selection of the parameters is made by solving a constrained nonlinear programming problem, where the constraints are given by pointwise conditions that ensure the well-definiteness of the functional and the existence of a solution. Penalty terms are introduced in the cost function to account for constraints imposed on points that result from sampling the sets to which the trajectories of the state and of the estimation error belong. To ensure an efficient covering of the sets, low-discrepancy sampling techniques are exploited that generate samples deterministically spread in a uniform way, without leaving regions of the space undersampled. Work supported by a PRIN grant from the Italian Ministry of University and Research (Project “New Techniques for the Identification and Adaptive Control of Industrial Systems”) and by the EU and the Regione Liguria trough the Regional Programs of Innovative Action of the European Regional Development Fund.     

指令性抽样下总体均值和方差的估计及其应用

指令性抽样下的样本往往不具有代表性,因此仅用它们来推断总体将是不适合的,这篇文章基于观察信息,利用概率统计方法将没有发出调查指令的样本信息补充出来,然后利用观察信息和补充信息一起来对总体进行推断.具体我们给出了总体均值和方差参数估计的迭代公式,并给出它们在经济犯罪调查和流行病调查中的应用.     

A Class of Sparse Invertible Matrices and Their Use for Nonlinear Prediction of Nearly Periodic Time Series with Fixed Period

We introduce a class of sparse matrices U _m (A _{p 1} ) of order m by m, where m is a composite natural number, p ₁ is a divisor of m, and A _{p 1} is a set of nonzero real numbers of length p ₁. The construction of U _m (A _{p 1} ) is achieved by iteration, involving repetitive dilation operations and block-matrix operations. We prove that the matrices U _m (A _{p 1} ) are invertible and we compute the inverse matrix (U _m (A _{p 1} ))^?1 explicitly. We prove that each row of the inverse matrix (U _m (A _{p 1} ))^?1 has only two nonzero entries with alternative signs, located at specific positions, related to the divisors of m. We use the structural properties of the matrix (U _m (A _{p 1} ))^?1 in order to build a nonlinear estimator for prediction of nearly periodic time series of length m with fixed period.     

基于EM算法隐Markov模型参数估计

描述最大似然参数估计问题,介绍如何用EM算法求解最大似然参数估计.首先给出EM算法的抽象形式,然后介绍EM算法的一个应用:求隐Markov模型中的参数估计.用EM算法推导出隐Markov模型中参数的迭代公式.     

对于金融资产波动率估计的双域组合方法

Time- and state-domain methods are two common approaches for nonparametrically estimating the volatility of financial assets. Economic conditions vary over time in real financial market. It is reasonable to expect that volatility depends on both time and price level for a given state variable. Recently, Fan, et al （2007） proposed the idea of dynamically integrated method in both time-and state domain. This idea has become an interesting topic in the estimation of volatility. In this paper, our purpose is to discuss the integrated method in the estimation of volatility. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate that the newly integrated method outperforms some old ones, and the results of simulations demonstrate this fact. Furthermore, we establish its asymptotic properties.     

成败型数据下Logistic分布的参数估计

使用EM算法 ,在成败型数据下 ,对Logistic分布的参数进行估计 ,得到了估计量所满足的非线性方程组     

非线性模型中方差和协方差分量的Bayes估计

本文采用Bayes方法从有逆gamma先验信息出发,得到了非张性模型中方差和协方差分量的估计,本文中的方差和协方差分量包含相关系数,而其他学者提出的线性模型中方差和协方差分量的Bayes估计只是本文的特殊情况.     

Extended and Unscented Kalman filtering based feedforward neural networks for time series prediction

With the ability to deal with high non-linearity, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs) have been widely studied and successfully applied to time series prediction. However, good fitting results of ANNs and SVMs to nonlinear models do not guarantee an equally good prediction performance. One main reason is that their dynamics and properties are changing with time, and another key problem is the inherent noise of the fitting data. Nonlinear filtering methods have some advantages such as handling additive noises and following the movement of a system when the underlying model is evolving through time. The present paper investigates time series prediction algorithms by using a combination of nonlinear filtering approaches and the feedforward neural network (FNN). The nonlinear filtering model is established by using the FNN’s weights to present state equation and the FNN’s output to present the observation equation, and the input vector to the FNN is composed of the predicted signal with given length, then the extended Kalman filtering (EKF) and Unscented Kalman filtering (UKF) are used to online train the FNN. Time series prediction results are presented by the predicted observation value of nonlinear filtering approaches. To evaluate the proposed methods, the developed techniques are applied to the predictions of one simulated Mackey-Glass chaotic time series and one real monthly mean water levels time series. Generally, the prediction accuracy of the UKF-based FNN is better than the EKF-based FNN when the model is highly nonlinear. However, comparing from prediction accuracy and computational effort based on the prediction model proposed in our study, we draw the conclusion that the EKF-based FNN is superior to the UKF-based FNN for the theoretical Mackey-Glass time series prediction and the real monthly mean water levels time series prediction.