基于模拟植物生长算法的协作研发网络决策优化模型

在协作研发网络决策中,合理的投资组合可使企业获得理想的收益。企业协作研发网络的投资组合是多方博弈后的结果,利用模拟植物生长算法构建的优化模型可以分析企业在网络中投资组合的博弈过程。通过模拟植物生长算法计算得到的全局最优解和局部最优解是企业协作研发决策投资组合的最优决策集。企业可以根据策略集调整自身的投资方式,制定最优的决策方案。     

An a posteriori decision support methodology for solving the multi-criteria supplier selection problem

This research presents a novel, state-of-the-art methodology for solving a multi-criteria supplier selection problem considering risk and sustainability. It combines multi-objective optimization with the analytic network process to take into account sustainability requirements of a supplier portfolio configuration. To integrate ‘risk’ into the supplier selection problem, we develop a multi-objective optimization model based on the investment portfolio theory introduced by Markowitz. The proposed model is a non-standard portfolio selection problem with four objectives: (1) minimizing the purchasing costs, (2) selecting the supplier portfolio with the highest logistics service, (3) minimizing the supply risk, and (4) ordering as much as possible from those suppliers with outstanding sustainability performance. The optimization model, which has three linear and one quadratic objective function, is solved by an algorithm that analytically computes a set of efficient solutions and provides graphical decision support through a visualization of the complete and exactly-computed Pareto front (a posteriori approach). The possibility of computing all Pareto-optimal supplier portfolios is beneficial for decision makers as they can compare all optimal solutions at once, identify the trade-offs between the criteria, and study how the different objectives of supplier portfolio configuration may be balanced to finally choose the composition that satisfies the purchasing company's strategy best. The approach has been applied to a real-world supplier portfolio configuration case to demonstrate its applicability and to analyze how the consideration of sustainability requirements may affect the traditional supplier selection and purchasing goals in a real-life setting.     

The selection pressures induced non-smooth infectious disease model and bifurcation analysis

Mathematical models can assist in the design strategies to control emerging infectious disease. This paper deduces a non-smooth infectious disease model induced by selection pressures. Analysis of this model reveals rich dynamics including local, global stability of equilibria and local sliding bifurcations. Model solutions ultimately stabilize at either one real equilibrium or the pseudo-equilibrium on the switching surface of the present model, depending on the threshold value determined by some related parameters. Our main results show that reducing the threshold value to a appropriate level could contribute to the efficacy on prevention and treatment of emerging infectious disease, which indicates that the selection pressures can be beneficial to prevent the emerging infectious disease under medical resource limitation.     

Hidden invariant convexity for global and conic-intersection optimality guarantees in discrete-time optimal control

Non-convex discrete-time optimal control problems in, e.g., water or power systems, typically involve a large number of variables related through nonlinear equality constraints. The ideal goal is to find a globally optimal solution, and numerical experience indicates that algorithms aiming for Karush–Kuhn–Tucker points often find solutions that are indistinguishable from global optima. In our paper, we provide a theoretical underpinning for this phenomenon, showing that on a broad class of problems the objective can be shown to be an invariant convex function (invex function) of the control decision variables when state variables are eliminated using implicit function theory. In this way, optimality guarantees can be obtained, the exact nature of which depends on the position of the solution within the feasible set. In a numerical example, we show how high-quality solutions are obtained with local search for a river control problem where invexity holds.

     

A two-period supply contract model for a decentralized assembly system

Supply contract helps in coordinating the supply of quantities from different suppliers in order to meet the demand for a product. In this paper, supply contract models are developed by considering an assembly system operated under a centralized and a decentralized control modes. The centralized control mode considers a single decision maker and offers a global optimal solution. However, the decentralized control mode considers each player in the contract as a decision maker and offers local optimal solutions based on the production and cost characteristics of each player. Such local optimal solutions are adjusted through coordinating parameters to obtain global optimal solutions. If a contract developed for a decentralized control mode achieves the global optimal solution, then the supply chain (or channel) is said to be coordinated.     

Probability maximization models for portfolio selection under ambiguity

This paper considers several probability maximization models for multi-scenario portfolio selection problems in the case that future returns in possible scenarios are multi-dimensional random variables. In order to consider occurrence probabilities and decision makers’ predictions with respect to all scenarios, a portfolio selection problem setting a weight with flexibility to each scenario is proposed. Furthermore, by introducing aspiration levels to occurrence probabilities or future target profit and maximizing the minimum aspiration level, a robust portfolio selection problem is considered. Since these problems are formulated as stochastic programming problems due to the inclusion of random variables, they are transformed into deterministic equivalent problems introducing chance constraints based on the stochastic programming approach. Then, using a relation between the variance and absolute deviation of random variables, our proposed models are transformed into linear programming problems and efficient solution methods are developed to obtain the global optimal solution. Furthermore, a numerical example of a portfolio selection problem is provided to compare our proposed models with the basic model.     

损失厌恶偏好与资产组合选择研究

在不确定性条件下,期望的不可计算性、行动结果比较的局限性以及投资个体选择的非理性使理性假定的选择理论脱离现实,因此重新探讨决策选择准则是必要的.以行为金融理论中不确定性状态下的有限理性与满意准则为依据,引入与满意准则一致且体现损失厌恶偏好的VaR作为风险指标,构建行为资产组合模型,在一种简单新颖的M-V模型的矩阵解法基础上,探寻了正态与部分非正态性假设下VaR-BPT模型的显性最优解或有效前沿,解决了现实中最优投资组合选择的可操作性难题,并在中国股票市场验证了正态性转换方法是处理非正态分布下资产组合选择问题的一种优秀方法.     

Equity portfolio construction and selection using multiobjective mathematical programming

A multi-objective mixed integer programming model for equity portfolio construction and selection is developed in this study, in order to generate the Pareto optimal portfolios, using a novel version of the well known ε-constraint method. Subsequently, an interactive filtering process is also proposed to assist the decision maker in making his/her final choice among the Pareto solutions. The proposed methodology is tested through an application in the Athens Stock Exchange.     

Optimizing Omega

This paper considers the Omega function, proposed by Cascon, Keating & Shadwick as a performance measure for comparing financial assets. We discuss the use of Omega as a basis for portfolio selection. We show that the problem of choosing portfolio weights in order to maximize Omega typically has many local solutions and we describe some preliminary computational experience of finding the global optimum using a NAG library implementation of the Huyer & Neumaier MCS method.     

Study of multiscale global optimization based on parameter space partition

Inverse problems in geophysics are usually described as data misfit minimization problems, which are difficult to solve because of various mathematical features, such as multi-parameters, nonlinearity and ill-posedness. Local optimization based on function gradient can not guarantee to find out globally optimal solutions, unless a starting point is sufficiently close to the solution. Some global optimization methods based on stochastic searching mechanisms converge in the limit to a globally optimal solution with probability 1. However, finding the global optimum of a complex function is still a great challenge and practically impossible for some problems so far. This work develops a multiscale deterministic global optimization method which divides definition space into sub-domains. Each of these sub-domains contains the same local optimal solution. Local optimization methods and attraction field searching algorithms are combined to determine the attraction basin near the local solution at different function smoothness scales. With Multiscale Parameter Space Partition method, all attraction fields are to be determined after finite steps of parameter space partition, which can prevent redundant searching near the known local solutions. Numerical examples demonstrate the efficiency, global searching ability and stability of this method.     

Optimal investment strategies for participating contracts

Participating contracts are popular insurance policies, in which the payoff to a policyholder is linked to the performance of a portfolio managed by the insurer. We consider the portfolio selection problem of an insurer that offers participating contracts and has an S-shaped utility function. Applying the martingale approach, closed-form solutions are obtained. The resulting optimal strategies are compared with portfolio insurance hedging strategies (CPPI and OBPI). We also study numerical solutions of the portfolio selection problem with constraints on the portfolio weights.     

Optimal portfolio choice for an insurer with loss aversion

The problem of optimal investment for an insurance company attracts more attention in recent years. In general, the investment decision maker of the insurance company is assumed to be rational and risk averse. This is inconsistent with non fully rational decision-making way in the real world. In this paper we investigate an optimal portfolio selection problem for the insurer. The investment decision maker is assumed to be loss averse. The surplus process of the insurer is modeled by a Lévy process. The insurer aims to maximize the expected utility when terminal wealth exceeds his aspiration level. With the help of martingale method, we translate the dynamic maximization problem into an equivalent static optimization problem. By solving the static optimization problem, we derive explicit expressions of the optimal portfolio and the optimal wealth process.     

Differential evolution and combinatorial search for constrained index-tracking

Index-tracking is a low-cost alternative to active portfolio management. The implementation of a quantitative approach, however, is a major challenge from an optimization perspective. The optimal selection of a group of assets that can replicate the index of a much larger portfolio requires both to find the optimal subset of assets and to fine-tune their weights. The former is a combinatorial, the latter a continuous numerical problem. Both problems need to be addressed simultaneously, because whether or not a selection of assets is promising depends on the allocation weights and vice versa. Moreover, the problem is usually of high dimension. Typically, an optimal subset of 30–150 positions out of 100–600 need to be selected and their weights determined. Search heuristics can be a valuable alternative to traditional methods, which often cannot deal with the problem. In this paper, we propose a new optimization method, which is partly based on Differential Evolution (DE) and on combinatorial search. The main advantage of our method is that it can tackle the index-tracking problem as complex as it is, generating accurate and robust results.     

Mean-chance model for portfolio selection based on uncertain measure

This paper discusses a portfolio selection problem in which security returns are given by experts’ evaluations instead of historical data. A factor method for evaluating security returns based on experts’ judgment is proposed and a mean-chance model for optimal portfolio selection is developed taking transaction costs and investors’ preference on diversification and investment limitations on certain securities into account. The factor method of evaluation can make good use of experts’ knowledge on the effects of economic environment and the companies’ unique characteristics on security returns and incorporate the contemporary relationship of security returns in the portfolio. The use of chance of portfolio return failing to reach the threshold can help investors easily tell their tolerance toward risk and thus facilitate a decision making. To solve the proposed nonlinear programming problem, a genetic algorithm is provided. To illustrate the application of the proposed method, a numerical example is also presented.     

Globally optimal solutions of max–min systems

A variety of problems in computer science, operations research, control theory, etc., can be modeled as non-linear and non-differentiable max–min systems. This paper introduces the global optimization into such systems. The criteria for the existence and uniqueness of the globally optimal solutions are established using the high matrix, optimal max-only projection set and k ^s -control vector of max–min functions. It is also shown that the global optimization can be accomplished through the partial max-only projection representation with algebraic and combinatorial features. The methods are constructive and lead to an algorithm of finding all globally optimal solutions.     

Portfolio theory for the recourse certainty equivalent maximizing investor

The portfolio selection problem with one safe andn risky assets is analyzed via a new decision theoretic criterion based on the Recourse Certainty Equivalent (RCE). Fundamental results in portfolio theory, previously studied under the Expected Utility criterion (EU), such as separation theorems, comparative static analysis, and threshold values for inclusion or exclusion of risky assets in the optimal portfolio, are obtained here. In contrast to the EU model, our results for the RCE maximizing investor do not impose restrictions on either the utility function or the underlying probability laws. We also derive a dual portfolio selection problem and provide it with a concrete economic interpretation.Research partly supported by ONR Contracts N0014-81-C-0236 and N00014-82-K-0295, and NSF Grant SES-8408134 with the Center for Cybernetic Studies, The University of Texas at Austin.Partly supported by NSF Grant DDM-8896112.Partly supported by AFOSR Grant 0218-88 and NSF Grant ECS-8802239 at the University of Maryland, Baltimore Campus.     

Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Random Horizon

This paper examines the continuous-time mean-variance optimal portfolio selection problem with random market parameters and random time horizon. Treating this problem as a linearly constrained stochastic linear-quadratic optimal control problem, I explicitly derive the efficient portfolios and efficient frontier in closed forms based on the solutions of two backward stochastic differential equations. Some related issues such as a minimum variance portfolio and a mutual fund theorem are also addressed. All the results are markedly different from those in the problem with deterministic exit time. A key part of my analysis involves proving the global solvability of a stochastic Riccati equation, which is interesting in its own right.     

Genetic algorithms for portfolio selection problems with minimum transaction lots

Conventionally, portfolio selection problems are solved with quadratic or linear programming models. However, the solutions obtained by these methods are in real numbers and difficult to implement because each asset usually has its minimum transaction lot. Methods considering minimum transaction lots were developed based on some linear portfolio optimization models. However, no study has ever investigated the minimum transaction lot problem in portfolio optimization based on Markowitz’ model, which is probably the most well-known and widely used. Based on Markowitz’ model, this study presents three possible models for portfolio selection problems with minimum transaction lots, and devises corresponding genetic algorithms to obtain the solutions. The results of the empirical study show that the portfolios obtained using the proposed algorithms are very close to the efficient frontier, indicating that the proposed method can obtain near optimal and also practically feasible solutions to the portfolio selection problem in an acceptable short time. One model that is based on a fuzzy multi-objective decision-making approach is highly recommended because of its adaptability and simplicity.     

Asymptotic behavior of Mean-CVaR portfolio selection model under nonparametric framework

Portfolio selection is an important issue in finance and it involves the balance between risk and return. This paper investigates portfolio selection under Mean-CVa R model in a nonparametric framework with α-mixing data as financial data tends to be dependent. Many works have provided some insight into the performance of portfolio selection from the aspects of data and simulation while in this paper we concentrate on the asymptotic behaviors of the optimal solutions and risk estimation in theory.     

Stochastic differential portfolio games for an insurer in a jump-diffusion risk process

We discuss an optimal portfolio selection problem of an insurer who faces model uncertainty in a jump-diffusion risk model using a game theoretic approach. In particular, the optimal portfolio selection problem is formulated as a two-person, zero-sum, stochastic differential game between the insurer and the market. There are two leader-follower games embedded in the game problem: (i) The insurer is the leader of the game and aims to select an optimal portfolio strategy by maximizing the expected utility of the terminal surplus in the “worst-case” scenario; (ii) The market acts as the leader of the game and aims to choose an optimal probability scenario to minimize the maximal expected utility of the terminal surplus. Using techniques of stochastic linear-quadratic control, we obtain closed-form solutions to the game problems in both the jump-diffusion risk process and its diffusion approximation for the case of an exponential utility.