A dependent project evaluation and review technique: A Bayesian network approach

The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) dates back to 1959. This method evaluates the uncertainty distribution of a project’s completion time given the uncertain completion times of the activities/tasks comprised within it. Each activity’s uncertainty was defined originally by a unique two parameter beta PERT distribution satisfying what is known to be the PERT mean and PERT variance. In this paper, a three-parameter PERT family of bounded distributions is introduced satisfying that same mean and variance, generalizing the beta PERT distribution. Their additional flexibility allows for the modeling of statistical dependence in a continuous Bayesian network, generalizing in turn the traditional PERT procedure where statistical independence is assumed among beta PERT activity durations. Through currently available Bayesian network software and the construction of that PERT family herein, the coherent monitoring of remaining project completion time uncertainty given partial completion of a project may become more accessible to PERT analysts. An illustrative example demonstrating the benefit of monitoring of remaining project completion time uncertainty as activities complete in that Bayesian fashion shall be presented, including expressions and algorithms for the specification of the three prior parameters for each activity in the project network to adhere to classical the PERT mean and PERT variance and a degree of statistical dependence between them.     

Bayesian binary regression involving two explanatory variables

Summary The purpose of the present paper is to propose a practical Bayesian procedure for the estimation of binary response probability where the explanatory variable is bivariate. The procedure is an extension of the procedure for univariate case which was proposed by the present authors [2] and is based on a model which approximates the logistic transformation of response probability by a quadratic orthogonal spline function on the two-dimensional space of explanatory variable. The flexibility of the model is guaranteed by assuming a spline function on sufficiently fine mesh. To obtain stable estimates we introduce a prior distribution of the parameters of the model. The prior distribution has several parameters (hyper-parameters) which are chosen to minimize an Bayesian information criterion ABIC. The procedure is applicable cable to cases where each explanatory variable takes continuous values provided that the probability of the occurrence changes smoothly. The practical utility of the procedure is demonstrated by examples of applications to five sets of data. The Institute of Statistical Mathematics     

Gumbel分布的简单贝叶斯估计

在实际应用中,两参数Gumbel分布的贝叶斯估计往往需要预先知道Gumbel参数的二维联合先验分布。由于获取先验分布的主观性和统计推断的复杂性,目前有关Gumbel分布贝叶斯估计理论及其性质的讨论还比较少,更不要说获得较为简单的Gumbel分布的贝叶斯估计。本文基于Kaminskiy和Vasiliy提出的简单贝叶斯估计过程,利用可靠度函数估计的区间形式表示先验信息,从而得到两个参数Gumbel分布的简单贝叶斯估计。基于此先验信息,该估计过程构造了Gumbel参数的连续联合先验分布,给出了在给定任意时点的可靠度(或累积密度)及其标准差的后验估计,为可靠性与风险评估中简单快速的使用贝叶斯估计刻画极端事件提供了可能.     

Bayesian analysis of Birnbaum–Saunders distribution via the generalized ratio-of-uniforms method

This paper deals with the Bayesian inference for the parameters of the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution. We adopt the inverse-gamma priors for the shape and scale parameters because the continuous conjugate joint prior distribution does not exist and the reference prior (or independent Jeffreys’ prior) results in an improper posterior distribution. We propose an efficient sampling algorithm via the generalized ratio-of-uniforms method to compute the Bayesian estimates and the credible intervals. One appealing advantage of the proposed procedure over other sampling techniques is that it efficiently generates independent samples from the required posterior distribution. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the behavior of the proposed method, and two real-data applications are analyzed for illustrative purposes.     

随机估计和VDR检验

众所周知统计推断有三种理论:普遍承认的Neyman理论(频率学派),Bayes推断和信仰推断(Fiducial)。Bayes推断基于后验分布,由先验分布和样本分布求得。信仰推断是基于信仰分布(Confidence Distribution,简称CD),直接利用样本求得。两者推断方式一致,都是用分布函数作推断,称为分布推断。从分析传统的参数估计、假设检验特性来看,经典统计推断也可以视为分布推断。通常将置信上限看做置信度的函数。其反函数,即置信度是置信上界的函数,恰是分布函数,该分布恰是近年来引起许多学者兴趣的CD。在本文中,基于随机化估计(其分布是一CD)的概率密度函数,提出VDR检验。常见正态分布期望或方差的检验,多元正态分布期望的Hoteling检验等是其特例。VDR(vertical density representation)检验适合于多元分布参数检验,实现了非正态的多元线性变换分布族的参数检验。VDR构造的参数的置信域有最小Lebesgue测度。     

Triply fuzzy function approximation for hierarchical Bayesian inference

We prove that three independent fuzzy systems can uniformly approximate Bayesian posterior probability density functions by approximating the prior and likelihood probability densities as well as the hyperprior probability densities that underly the priors. This triply fuzzy function approximation extends the recent theorem for uniformly approximating the posterior density by approximating just the prior and likelihood densities. This approximation allows users to state priors and hyper-priors in words or rules as well as to adapt them from sample data. A fuzzy system with just two rules can exactly represent common closed-form probability densities so long as they are bounded. The function approximators can also be neural networks or any other type of uniform function approximator. Iterative fuzzy Bayesian inference can lead to rule explosion. We prove that conjugacy in the if-part set functions for prior, hyperprior, and likelihood fuzzy approximators reduces rule explosion. We also prove that a type of semi-conjugacy of if-part set functions for those fuzzy approximators results in fewer parameters in the fuzzy posterior approximator.     

A quasi Bayesian approach to outlier detection

Summary A quasi Bayesian procedure is developed for the detection of outliers. A particular Gaussian distribution with ordered means is assumed as the basic model of the data distribution. By introducing a definition of the likelihood of a model whose parameters are determined by the method of maximum likelihood, the posterior probability of the model is obtained for a particular choice of the prior probability distribution. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the practical utility of the procedure. The Institute of Statistical Mathematics     

On the posterior median estimators of possibly sparse sequences

We adopt the Bayesian paradigm and discuss certain properties of posterior median estimators of possibly sparse sequences. The prior distribution considered is a mixture of an atom of probability at zero and a symmetric unimodal distribution, and the noise distribution is taken as another symmetric unimodal distribution. We derive an explicit form of the corresponding posterior median and show that it is an antisymmetric function and, under some conditions, a shrinkage and a thresholding rule. Furthermore we show that, as long as the tails of the nonzero part of the prior distribution are heavier than the tails of the noise distribution, the posterior median, under some constraints on the involved parameters, has the bounded shrinkage property, extending thus recent results to larger families of prior and noise distributions. Expressions of posterior distributions and posterior medians in particular cases of interest are obtained. The asymptotes of the derived posterior medians, which provide valuable information of how the corresponding estimators treat large coefficients, are also given. These results could be particularly useful for studying frequentist optimality properties and developing statistical techniques of the resulting posterior median estimators of possibly sparse sequences for a wider set of prior and noise distributions.     

A note on the prior parameter choice in finite mixture models of distributions from exponential families

This work presents a new scheme to obtain the prior distribution parameters in the framework of Rufo et al. (Comput Stat 21:621–637, 2006). Firstly, an analytical expression of the proposed Kullback–Leibler divergence is derived for each distribution in the considered family. Therefore, no previous simulation technique is needed to estimate integrals and thus, the error related to this procedure is avoided. Secondly, a global optimization algorithm based on interval arithmetic is applied to obtain the prior parameters from the derived expression. The main advantage by using this approach is that all solutions are found and rightly bounded. Finally, an application comparing this strategy with the previous one illustrates the proposal.     

Bayesian shrinkage prediction for the regression problem

We consider Bayesian shrinkage predictions for the Normal regression problem under the frequentist Kullback-Leibler risk function.Firstly, we consider the multivariate Normal model with an unknown mean and a known covariance. While the unknown mean is fixed, the covariance of future samples can be different from that of training samples. We show that the Bayesian predictive distribution based on the uniform prior is dominated by that based on a class of priors if the prior distributions for the covariance and future covariance matrices are rotation invariant.Then, we consider a class of priors for the mean parameters depending on the future covariance matrix. With such a prior, we can construct a Bayesian predictive distribution dominating that based on the uniform prior.Lastly, applying this result to the prediction of response variables in the Normal linear regression model, we show that there exists a Bayesian predictive distribution dominating that based on the uniform prior. Minimaxity of these Bayesian predictions follows from these results.     

Improved prediction for a multivariate normal distribution with unknown mean and variance

The prediction problem for a multivariate normal distribution is considered where both mean and variance are unknown. When the Kullback–Leibler loss is used, the Bayesian predictive density based on the right invariant prior, which turns out to be a density of a multivariate t-distribution, is the best invariant and minimax predictive density. In this paper, we introduce an improper shrinkage prior and show that the Bayesian predictive density against the shrinkage prior improves upon the best invariant predictive density when the dimension is greater than or equal to three.     

Bayesian predictive densities based on superharmonic priors for the 2-dimensional Wishart model

Bayesian predictive densities for the 2-dimensional Wishart model are investigated. The performance of predictive densities is evaluated by using the Kullback–Leibler divergence. It is proved that a Bayesian predictive density based on a prior exactly dominates that based on the Jeffreys prior if the prior density satisfies some geometric conditions. An orthogonally invariant prior is introduced and it is shown that the Bayesian predictive density based on the prior is minimax and dominates that based on the right invariant prior with respect to the triangular group.     

参数的E Bayes估计法及其应用

提出了参数的一种估计方法—— E Bayes估计法 ,对寿命服从指数分布的产品 ,在失效率的先验分布为 Gamma分布时 ,给出了失效率的 E Bayes估计和多层 Bayes估计 ,并在此基础上给出了失效率和可靠度的 E Bayes估计的性质 .结合实际问题进行了计算 ,结果表明提出的 E Bayes估计法可行且便于应用 .     

多重线性回归模型的贝叶斯预报分析

多重线性回归模型的贝叶斯预报分析是贝叶斯线性模型理论的重要组成部分。通过模型系统的统计结构，证明了矩阵正态-Wishart分布为模型参数的共轭先验分布；利用贝叶斯定理，根据模型的样本似然函数和参数的先验分布推导了参数的后验分布；然后，从数学上严格推断了模型的预报分布密度函数，证明了模型预报分布为矩阵t分布。研究结果表明：由于参数先验分布的作用，样本的预报分布与其原统计分布有着本质性的差异，前服从矩阵正态分布，而后为矩阵t分布。     

Quadrature Methods for Bayesian Optimal Design of Experiments With Nonnormal Prior Distributions

Many optimal experimental designs depend on one or more unknown model parameters. In such cases, it is common to use Bayesian optimal design procedures to seek designs that perform well over an entire prior distribution of the unknown model parameter(s). Generally, Bayesian optimal design procedures are viewed as computationally intensive. This is because they require numerical integration techniques to approximate the Bayesian optimality criterion at hand. The most common numerical integration technique involves pseudo Monte Carlo draws from the prior distribution(s). For a good approximation of the Bayesian optimality criterion, a large number of pseudo Monte Carlo draws is required. This results in long computation times. As an alternative to the pseudo Monte Carlo approach, we propose using computationally efficient Gaussian quadrature techniques. Since, for normal prior distributions, suitable quadrature techniques have already been used in the context of optimal experimental design, we focus on quadrature techniques for nonnormal prior distributions. Such prior distributions are appropriate for variance components, correlation coefficients, and any other parameters that are strictly positive or have upper and lower bounds. In this article, we demonstrate the added value of the quadrature techniques we advocate by means of the Bayesian D-optimality criterion in the context of split-plot experiments, but we want to stress that the techniques can be applied to other optimality criteria and other types of experimental designs as well. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Imprecise probability models for learning multinomial distributions from data. Applications to learning credal networks

This paper considers the problem of learning multinomial distributions from a sample of independent observations. The Bayesian approach usually assumes a prior Dirichlet distribution about the probabilities of the different possible values. However, there is no consensus on the parameters of this Dirichlet distribution. Here, it will be shown that this is not a simple problem, providing examples in which different selection criteria are reasonable. To solve it the Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) was introduced. But this model has important drawbacks, as the problems associated to learning from indirect observations. As an alternative approach, the Imprecise Sample Size Dirichlet Model (ISSDM) is introduced and its properties are studied. The prior distribution over the parameters of a multinomial distribution is the basis to learn Bayesian networks using Bayesian scores. Here, we will show that the ISSDM can be used to learn imprecise Bayesian networks, also called credal networks when all the distributions share a common graphical structure. Some experiments are reported on the use of the ISSDM to learn the structure of a graphical model and to build supervised classifiers.     

Merging experts’ opinions: A Bayesian hierarchical model with mixture of prior distributions

In this paper, a general approach is proposed to address a full Bayesian analysis for the class of quadratic natural exponential families in the presence of several expert sources of prior information. By expressing the opinion of each expert as a conjugate prior distribution, a mixture model is used by the decision maker to arrive at a consensus of the sources. A hyperprior distribution on the mixing parameters is considered and a procedure based on the expected Kullback–Leibler divergence is proposed to analytically calculate the hyperparameter values. Next, the experts’ prior beliefs are calibrated with respect to the combined posterior belief over the quantity of interest by using expected Kullback–Leibler divergences, which are estimated with a computationally low-cost method. Finally, it is remarkable that the proposed approach can be easily applied in practice, as it is shown with an application.     

Frequency domain characteristics of linear operator to decompose a time series into the multi-components

Frequency domain properties of the operators to decompose a time series into the multi-components along the Akaike's Bayesian model (Akaike (1980, Bayesian Statistics, 143–165, University Press, Valencia, Spain)) are shown. In that analysis a normal disturbance-linear-stochastic regression prior model is applied to the time series. A prior distribution, characterized by a small number of hyperparameters, is specified for model parameters. The posterior distribution is a linear function (filter) of observations. Here we use frequency domain analysis or filter characteristics of several prior models parametrically as a function of the hyperparameters.     

Bayesian and likelihood inference from equally weighted mixtures

Equally weighted mixture models are recommended for situations where it is required to draw precise finite sample inferences requiring population parameters, but where the population distribution is not constrained to belong to a simple parametric family. They lead to an alternative procedure to the Laird-DerSimonian maximum likelihood algorithm for unequally weighted mixture models. Their primary purpose lies in the facilitation of exact Bayesian computations via importance sampling. Under very general sampling and prior specifications, exact Bayesian computations can be based upon an application of importance sampling, referred to as Permutable Bayesian Marginalization (PBM). An importance function based upon a truncated multivariatet-distribution is proposed, which refers to a generalization of the maximum likelihood procedure. The estimation of discrete distributions, by binomial mixtures, and inference for survivor distributions, via mixtures of exponential or Weibull distributions, are considered. Equally weighted mixture models are also shown to lead to an alternative Gibbs sampling methodology to the Lavine-West approach.     

Bayesian inference in spherical linear models: robustness and conjugate analysis

The early work of Zellner on the multivariate Student-t linear model has been extended to Bayesian inference for linear models with dependent non-normal error terms, particularly through various papers by Osiewalski, Steel and coworkers. This article provides a full Bayesian analysis for a spherical linear model. The density generator of the spherical distribution is here allowed to depend both on the precision parameter φ and on the regression coefficients β. Another distinctive aspect of this paper is that proper priors for the precision parameter are discussed.The normal-chi-squared family of prior distributions is extended to a new class, which allows the posterior analysis to be carried out analytically. On the other hand, a direct joint modelling of the data vector and of the parameters leads to conjugate distributions for the regression and the precision parameters, both individually and jointly. It is shown that some model specifications lead to Bayes estimators that do not depend on the choice of the density generator, in agreement with previous results obtained in the literature under different assumptions. Finally, the distribution theory developed to tackle the main problem is useful on its own right.