Effects of random noise in a dynamical model of love

This paper aims to investigate the stochastic model of love and the effects of random noise. We first revisit the deterministic model of love and some basic properties are presented such as: symmetry, dissipation, fixed points (equilibrium), chaotic behaviors and chaotic attractors. Then we construct a stochastic love-triangle model with parametric random excitation due to the complexity and unpredictability of the psychological system, where the randomness is modeled as the standard Gaussian noise. Stochastic dynamics under different three cases of “Romeo’s romantic style”, are examined and two kinds of bifurcations versus the noise intensity parameter are observed by the criteria of changes of top Lyapunov exponent and shape of stationary probability density function (PDF) respectively. The phase portraits and time history are carried out to verify the proposed results, and the good agreement can be found. And also the dual roles of the random noise, namely suppressing and inducing chaos are revealed.     

Stochastic flocking dynamics of the inertial spin model with state-dependent noises

We study stochastic flocking dynamics of the inertial spin (IS) model with state-dependent noises. The IS model was considered to describe the collective behaviors of starling flocks moving with constant speed. Unlike mechanical flocking models extensively studied in the literature, this model incorporates an internal dynamic observable, namely spin (internal angular momentum) in addition to mechanical observables (position and velocity), and it describes how spin interacts with mechanical observables. In previous works, emergent dynamics of the deterministic counterparts for the IS model and its mean-field limit have been investigated under some specific setting in which network topology is multiplicatively separable. In this work, we present sufficient frameworks for stochastic flocking dynamics of the IS model, which state-dependent noises vanish at the equilibria of the deterministic IS model. The proposed frameworks are in terms of coupling strength, friction, and inertial coefficients, and our asymptotic convergence results for sample paths are given in both an almost sure and an expectation sense. We have also conducted several numerical experiments to verify our analytical results and to explore what can be studied further in future work     

Time-series analysis of TCP/RED computer networks,an empirical study

Packet-level observations show that the TCP/RED congestion control systems exhibit complex non-periodic oscillations which vary with the network/RED parameter variations. In this paper, it is investigated whether such complex behaviors are due to nonlinear deterministic chaotic dynamics or do they originate from nonlinear stochastic dynamics. To do this, various methods of linear and nonlinear time series analyses have been applied to the packet-level data gathered from a typical network simulated in ns-2. The results of the analysis for a wide range of variations in averaging weight of RED (as the most important bifurcation factor in TCP/RED networks) show that such behaviors are not due to deterministic chaos in the system, but originate from the stochastic nature of the network.     

Stochastic models for first-order kinetics of biochemical oxygen demand with random initial conditions, inputs, and coefficients

Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) is a parameter of prime importance in surface water pollution studies and in the design and operation of waste-water treatment plants. A general, stochastic analytical model (denoted S1) is developed for the temporal expectation and (heteroscedastic) variance of first-order BOD kinetics. The model is obtained by integrating the moment equation, which is derived from the mathematical theory of stochastic differential equations. This model takes into account random initial conditions, random inputs, and random coefficients, which appear in the model formulation as initial condition (σ_O²), input (σ_l²), and coefficient (σ_c²) variance parameters, respectively. By constraining these three variance parameters to either vanish or to be nonnegative, model S1 is allowed (under appropriate combinations of the constraints) to split into six stochastic “submodels” (denoted S2 to S7), with each of these submodels being a particular case of the general model. Model S1 also degenerates to the deterministic model (denoted D) when each of the variance parameters vanish. The deterministic parameters (i.e., the rate coefficient and the ultimate BOD) and the stochastic variance parameters of the seven models are estimated on sets of replicated BOD data using the maximum likelihood principle. In this study, two (S5 and S7) of these seven stochastic models are found to be appropriate for BOD. The stochastic input (S5) model (i.e., null initial condition and coefficient variance parameters) shows the best prediction capabilities, while the next best is the stochastic initial condition (S7) model (i.e., null input and coefficient variance parameters).     

Interpreting supply chain dynamics: A quasi-chaos perspective

Chaotic phenomena, chaos amplification and other interesting nonlinear behaviors have been observed in supply chain systems. Chaos can be defined theoretically if the dynamics under study are produced only by deterministic factors. However, deterministic settings rarely present themselves in reality. In fact, real data are typically unknown. How can the chaos theory and its related methodology be applied in the real world? When the demand is stochastic, the interpretation and distribution of the Lyapunov exponents derived from the effective inventory at different supply chain levels are not similar to those under deterministic demand settings. Are the observed dynamics of the effective inventory random, chaotic, or simply quasi-chaos? In this study, we investigate a situation whereby the chaos analysis is applied to a time series as if its underlying structure, deterministic or stochastic, is unknown. The result shows clear distinction in chaos characterization between the two categories of demand process, deterministic vs. stochastic. It also highlights the complexity of the interplay between stochastic demand processes and nonlinear dynamics. Therefore, caution should be exercised in interpreting system dynamics when applying chaos analysis to a system of unknown underlying structure. By understanding this delicate interplay, decision makers have the better chance to tackle the problem correctly or more effectively at the demand end or the supply end.     

Modeling treatment of cancer using virotherapy with generalized logistic growth of tumor cells

Abstract

Virotherapy is an effective strategy in cancer treatment. It eliminates tumor cells without harming the healthy cells. In this article, a deterministic mathematical model to understand the dynamics of tumor cells in response to virotherapy is formulated and analyzed by incorporating cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs). The basic reproduction number and the immune response reproduction number are computed and different equilibria of the proposed model are found. The local stability of different equilibria is discussed in detail. Further, the proposed model is extended to stochastic model. Numerical simulation is performed for both deterministic and stochastic models. It is observed that when both the reproduction numbers are greater than one, which corresponds to existence of unique nontrivial equilibrium point, dynamics of deterministic and stochastic models are almost same. The deterministic model shows a very complex dynamics when one or both the reproduction numbers are below one. The system exhibits both backward bifurcation and Hopf-bifurcation for suitable sets of parameters and in this situation it is not easy to predict the dynamics of cancer cells and virus particles. The existence of backward bifurcation demonstrates the fact that partial success of virotherapy can be achieved even if the immune response reproduction number is less than one.     

Stochastic leadtimes in a one-warehouse,N-retailer inventory system with the warehouse not carrying stock

This study extends upon a multi-echelon inventory model developed by Graves, introducing in the one-warehouse, N-retailer case—as Graves suggested—stochastic leadtimes between the warehouse and the retail sites in place of the original deterministic leadtimes. Effects of stochastic leadtimes on required base stock levels at the retail sites in the case where the warehouse carries no stock (e.g., serves as a cross-dock point) were investigated analytically. Two alternative treatments of stochastic leadtime distributions were considered. Using as a baseline Graves’ computational study under deterministic leadtimes, results of the current study suggest that it may be better to use the deterministic model with an accurately estimated mean leadtime than a stochastic model with a poorly estimated mean leadtime.     

Stabilization of two cycles of difference equations with stochastic perturbations

A map which experiences a period doubling route to chaos, under a stochastic perturbation with a positive mean, can have a stable blurred two-cycle for large enough values of the parameter. The limit dynamics of this cycle is described, and it is demonstrated that most well-known population dynamics models (e.g. Ricker, truncated logistic, Hassel and May, Bellows maps) have this stable blurred two-cycle. For a general type of maps, in addition, there may be a blurred stable area near the equilibrium.     

Existence of an infinite particle limit of stochastic ranking process

We study a stochastic particle system which models the time evolution of the ranking of books by online bookstores (e.g., Amazon.co.jp). In this system, particles are lined in a queue. Each particle jumps at random jump times to the top of the queue, and otherwise stays in the queue, being pushed toward the tail every time another particle jumps to the top. In an infinite particle limit, the random motion of each particle between its jumps converges to a deterministic trajectory. (This trajectory is actually observed in the ranking data on web sites.) We prove that the (random) empirical distribution of this particle system converges to a deterministic space–time-dependent distribution. A core of the proof is the law of large numbers for dependent random variables.     

SUSTAINABLE YIELDS IN FISHERIES: UNCERTAINTY,RISK‐AVERSION,AND MEAN‐VARIANCE ANALYSIS

Abstract We consider a model of a fishery in which the dynamics of the unharvested fish population are given by the stochastic logistic growth equation Similar to the classical deterministic analogon, we assume that the fishery harvests the fish population following a constant effort strategy. In the first step, we derive the effort level that leads to maximum expected sustainable yield, which is understood as the expectation of the equilibrium distribution of the stochastic dynamics. This replaces the nonzero fixed point in the classical deterministic setup. In the second step, we assume that the fishery is risk averse and that there is a tradeoff between expected sustainable yield and uncertainty measured in terms of the variance of the equilibrium distribution. We derive the optimal constant effort harvesting strategy for this problem. In the final step, we consider an approach that we call the mean‐variance analysis to sustainable fisheries. Similar as in the now classical mean‐variance analysis in finance, going back to Markowitz [1952] , we study the problem of maximizing expected sustainable yields under variance constraints, and with this, minimizing the variance, e.g., risk, under guaranteed minimum expected sustainable yields. We derive explicit formulas for the optimal fishing effort in all four problems considered and study the effects of uncertainty, risk aversion, and mean reversion speed on fishing efforts.     

The pricing of Asian options under stochastic interest rates

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the effect of stochastic interest rates on the pricing of Asian options. It is shown that a stochastic, in contrast to a deterministic, development of the term structure of interest rates has a significant influence. The price of the underlying asset, e.g. a stock or oil, and the prices of bonds are assumed to follow correlated two-dimensional Itô processes. The averages considered in the Asian options are calculated on a discrete time grid, e.g. all closing prices on Wednesdays during the lifetime of the contract. The value of an Asian option will be obtained through the application of Monte Carlo simulation, and for this purpose the stochastic processes for the basic assets need not be severely restricted. However, to make comparison with published results originating from models with deterministic interest rates, we will stay within the setting of a Gaussian framework.     

Numerical solution of stochastic differential problems in the biosciences

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) models play a prominent role in many application areas including biology, epidemiology and population dynamics, mostly because they can offer a more sophisticated insight through physical phenomena than their deterministic counterparts do. So, suitable numerical methods must be introduced to simulate the solutions of the resulting stochastic differential systems. In this work we take into account both Euler–Taylor expansion and Runge–Kutta-type methods for stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs) and the Euler–Maruyama method for stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs), focusing on the most relevant implementation issues. The corresponding Matlab codes for both SODEs and SDDEs problems are tested on mathematical models arising in the biosciences.     

多目标随机线性规划问题的模糊求解方法

研究了资源量b_i为随机变量的多目标随机线性规划问题,建立了相应等价的确定性多目标规划模型,提出了有效的模糊求解方法,并用实例作了有效性说明。     

Probabilistic analysis of combat models

This paper reviews recent developments in the field of stochastic combat models. A simple heterogeneous model with attrition rates dependent on the number of surviving forces is considered as a Markov process. Various characteristics of system dynamics are evaluated and expressed in explicit form. Numerical results to illustrate the difference between deterministic and stochastic models are presented. Some areas for further work are pointed out.     

Bifurcation analysis of a stochastic non-smooth friction model

Non-smooth systems with stochastic parameters are important models e.g. for brake and cam follower systems. They show special bifurcation phenomena, such as grazing bifurcations. This contribution studies the influence of stochastic processes on bifurcations in non-smooth systems. As an example, the classical mass on a belt system is considered, where stick-slip vibrations occur. Measurements indicate that the friction coefficient which plays a large role in the system behavior is not deterministic but can be described as a friction characteristic with added white noise. Therefore, a stochastic process is introduced into the non-smooth model and its influence on the bifurcation behavior is studied. It is shown that the stochastic process may alter the bifurcation behavior of the deterministic system. (© 2010 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The asymptotic behaviors of a stochastic social epidemics model with multi-perturbation

Alcohol abuse is a major social problem, which is often called social epidemic, for the some similarities to the classical infectious diseases. In this paper, we formulated a new stochastic alcoholism model based on the deterministic model proposed in \cite{Wangxy}, with the mortalities of all populations as well as the contact infected coefficient are all perturbed. Based on this model, we investigate the long-term stochastic dynamics behaviors of two equilibria of the corresponding deterministic model and point out the effect of random disturbance on the stability of the system. Finally, we carry out numerical simulations to support our theoretical results.     

Evolving to the edge of chaos: Chance or necessity?

We show that ecological systems evolve to edges of chaos (EOC). This has been demonstrated by analyzing three diverse model ecosystems using numerical simulations in combination with analytical procedures. It has been found that all these systems reside on EOC and display short-term recurrent chaos (strc). The first two are non-linear food chains and the third one is a linear food chain. The dynamics of first two is dictated by deterministic changes in system parameters. In contrast to this, dynamics of the third model system (the linear food chain) is governed by both deterministic changes in system parameters as well as exogenous stochastic perturbations (unforeseen changes in initial conditions) of these dynamical systems.     

Evolving to the edge of chaos: Chance or necessity?

We show that ecological systems evolve to edges of chaos (EOC). This has been demonstrated by analyzing three diverse model ecosystems using numerical simulations in combination with analytical procedures. It has been found that all these systems reside on EOC and display short-term recurrent chaos (strc). The first two are non-linear food chains and the third one is a linear food chain. The dynamics of first two is dictated by deterministic changes in system parameters. In contrast to this, dynamics of the third model system (the linear food chain) is governed by both deterministic changes in system parameters as well as exogenous stochastic perturbations (unforeseen changes in initial conditions) of these dynamical systems.     

Dynamics of tumor virotherapy: A deterministic and stochastic model approach

Cancer virotherapy is studied in mathematical modeling to improve tumor elimination. Since various oncolytic viruses are used for cancer therapy and virus selection is an important research problem, we, therefore, constructed deterministic and stochastic models of cancer-virus dynamics. We investigated virus characteristic parameter sensitivities using a reproduction ratio. Locally and globally asymptotically stable equilibrium points that are respectively related to therapy failure/partial success and therapy failure were determined. A stochastic system was derived from the deterministic model. Tumor extinction probabilities depending on changing parameter values were investigated. Results suggest that viruses with high infection rates and optimal cytotoxicity are effective for cancer treatment.     

Geometric Ergodicity for Piecewise Contracting Processes with Applications for Tropical Stochastic Lattice Models

Stochastic lattice models are increasingly prominent as a way to capture highly intermittent unresolved features of moist tropical convection in climate science and as continuum mesoscopic models in material science. Stochastic lattice models consist of suitably discretized continuum partial differential equations interacting with Markov jump processes at each lattice site with transition rates depending on the local value of the continuum equation; they are a special case of piecewise deterministic Markov processes but often have an infinite state space and unbounded transition rates. Here a general theorem on geometric ergodicity for piecewise deterministic contracting processes is developed with full generality to apply to stochastic lattice models. A highly nontrivial application to the stochastic skeleton model for the Madden‐Julian oscillation (Thual et al., 2013) is developed here where there is an infinite state space with unbounded and also degenerate transition rates. Geometric ergodicity for the stochastic skeleton model guarantees exponential convergence to a unique invariant measure that defines the statistical tropical climate of the model. Another application of the general framework is developed here for stochastic lattice models designed to capture intermittent fluctuation in the simplest tropical climate models. Other straightforward applications to models motivated by material science are mentioned briefly here. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.