泊松冲击下冷贮备可修系统的可靠性分析

本文研究了一类由有限个同质部件和一个修理工组成的冷贮备可修系统在随机冲击下的可靠性问题。假设冲击以泊松过程到达。当冲击到达时,它会独立地对系统中工作的部件产生影响,而不会对冷贮备部件产生影响。每次冲击的量都服从某一确定的分布,受冲击的部件以一定的概率发生故障,其故障概率是冲击量的函数,当工作的部件发生故障时,下一个冷贮备部件立即开始工作,当所有部件故障时,系统故障,故障部件按故障顺序进行修理,修理时间服从指数分布,故障部件能被修理如新。本文显式给出了系统首次故障前平均时间、稳态可用度、稳态故障频度等可靠性指标。     

A bivariate optimal replacement policy for a cold standby repairable system with preventive repair

In this paper, the repair-replacement problem for a deteriorating cold standby repairable system is investigated. The system consists of two dissimilar components, in which component 1 is the main component with use priority and component 2 is a supplementary component. In order to extend the working time and economize the running cost of the system, preventive repair for component 1 is performed every time interval T, and the preventive repair is “as good as new”. As a supplementary component, component 2 is only used at the time that component 1 is under preventive repair or failure repair. Assumed that the failure repair of component 1 follows geometric process repair while the repair of component 2 is “as good as new”. A bivariate repair-replacement policy (T, N) is adopted for the system, where T is the interval length between preventive repairs, and N is the number of failures of component 1. The aim is to determine an optimal bivariate policy (T, N)^∗ such that the average cost rate of the system is minimized. The explicit expression of the average cost rate is derived and the corresponding optimal bivariate policy can be determined analytically or numerically. Finally, a Gamma distributed example is given to illustrate the theoretical results for the proposed model.     

Reliability analysis of a renewable multiple cold standby system

We present a general reliability analysis of the basic multiple cold standby system attended by a single repair facility. The particular case of deterministic repair provides some explicit results for the survival function illustrated by computer-plotted graphs.     

Reliability of repairable redundant systems in nuclear generating stations

Markov models are presented to assess the reliability performance of redundant standby systems in nuclear generating stations. These systems are inactive during the normal station operation. However, they are required to operate for a specified period after the loss of normal power supply during emergency. The estimated probabilities of system failure are useful in deciding on the best combination of standby units and repair facilities. The proposed models are applicable to such systems as combustion turbine units in emergency service (Class III power system, emergency power supply system), and pumps in emergency coolant injection system.     

泊松冲击下单部件混合贮备系统可靠性分析

研究的是泊松冲击下由三同型部件组成的单部件混合贮备系统可靠性.在系统三部件分别为工作部件、温贮备部件和冷贮备部件假定下,且假定三部件在工作过程中都是接着工作、修理、冷贮备、温贮备、工作依次进行状态转移,同时假设部件寿命和维修时间都服从指数分布,利用基本概率理论和马尔可夫过程理论分别对不可修和可修两类系统进行讨论得到相关可靠性指标.     

Poisson冲击下的$k/n(G)$系统的可靠性分析

本文研究了一类Poisson冲击下的$k/n(G)$系统(即$k$-out-of-$n$: $G$系统). 假定冲击的到达数形成一个参数为$\lambda$的Poisson过程, 且冲击的量服从某一分布. 当每次冲击到达时, 对系统中工作的部件独立地产生影响. 进而假定每一部件以一定的概率故障, 概率值是冲击量的函数. 且各次冲击独立地对系统造成损失, 直到工作部件数少于$k$系统故障为止. 在这些假定下, 我们获得了系统的可靠度函数和系统的平均工作时间. 进一步, 假定系统是可修的, 系统中有一个维修工, 并根据``先坏先修’’的维修规则对故障部件进行维修. 在维修时间服从指数分布的假设下, 系统状态转移服从Markov过程. 对该系统我们建立了状态转移方程, 并求得了系统可用度、稳态下的平均工作时间、平均停工时间和系统失效频率等可靠性指标. 最后, 我们还给出了一个简单例子来演示讨论的模型.     

A deteriorating cold standby repairable system with priority in use

In this paper, a cold standby repairable system consisting of two dissimilar components and one repairman is studied. In this system, it is assumed that the working time distributions and the repair time distributions of the two components are both exponential and component 1 is given priority in use. After repair, component 2 is “as good as new” while component 1 follows a geometric process repair. Under these assumptions, using the geometric process and a supplementary variable technique, some important reliability indices such as the system availability, reliability, mean time to first failure (MTTFF), rate of occurrence of failure (ROCOF) and the idle probability of the repairman are derived. A numerical example for the system reliability R(t) is given. And it is considered that a repair-replacement policy based on the working age T of component 1 under which the system is replaced when the working age of component 1 reaches T. Our problem is to determine an optimal policy T^∗ such that the long-run average cost per unit time of the system is minimized. The explicit expression for the long-run average cost per unit time of the system is evaluated, and the corresponding optimal replacement policy T^∗ can be found analytically or numerically. Another numerical example for replacement model is also given.     

Reliability analysis of a single warm-standby system subject to repairable and nonrepairable failures

An n-unit system provisioned with a single warm standby is investigated. The individual units are subject to repairable failures, while the entire system is subject to a nonrepairable failure at some finite but random time in the future. System performance measures for systems observed over a time interval of random duration are introduced. Two models to compute these system performance measures, one employing a policy of block replacement, and the other without a block replacement policy, are developed. Distributional assumptions involving distributions of phase type introduce matrix Laplace transformations into the calculations of the performance measures. It is shown that these measures are easily carried out on a laptop computer using Microsoft Excel. A simple economic model is used to illustrate how the performance measures may be used to determine optimal economic design specifications for the warm standby.     

A novel optimal preventive maintenance policy for a cold standby system based on semi-Markov theory

A novel optimal preventive maintenance policy for a cold standby system consisting of two components and a repairman is described herein. The repairman is to be responsible for repairing either failed component and maintaining the working components under certain guidelines. To model the operational process of the system, some reasonable assumptions are made and all times involved in the assumptions are considered to be arbitrary and independent. Under these assumptions, all system states and transition probabilities between them are analyzed based on a semi-Markov theory and a regenerative point technique. Markov renewal equations are constructed with the convolution of the cumulative distribution function of system time in each state and corresponding transition probability. By using the Laplace transform to solve these equations, the mean time from the initial state to system failure is derived. The optimal preventive maintenance policy that will provide the optimal preventive maintenance cycle is identified by maximizing the mean time from the initial state to system failure, and is determined in the form of a theorem. Finally, a numerical example and simulation experiments are shown which validated the effectiveness of the policy.     

修理工带休假的两同型部件冷贮备可修系统

假定部件工作寿命,修理时间和修理工休假时间均服从一般分布,利用马尔可夫骨架过程理论,研究了修理工带休假的两同型部件冷贮备可修系统的可靠性。     

Cold vs. hot standby mission operation cost minimization for 1-out-of-N systems

It is well recognized that using the hot standby redundancy provides fast restoration in the case of failures. However the redundant elements are exposed to working stresses before they are used, which reduces the overall system reliability. Moreover, the cost of maintaining the hot redundant elements in the operational state is usually much greater than the cost of keeping them in the cold standby mode. Therefore, there exists a tradeoff between the cost of losses associated with the restoration delays and the operation cost of standby elements. Such a trade-off can be obtained by designing both hot and cold redundancy types into the same system. Thus a new optimization problem arises for the standby system design. The problem, referred to in this work as optimal standby element distributing and sequencing problem (SE-DSP) is to distribute a fixed set of elements between cold and hot standby groups and select the element initiation sequence so as to minimize the expected mission operation cost of the system while providing a desired level of system reliability. This paper first formulates and solves the SE-DSP problem for 1-out-of-N: G heterogeneous non-repairable standby systems. A numerical method is proposed for evaluating the system reliability and expected mission cost simultaneously. This method is based on discrete approximation of time-to-failure distributions of the system elements. A genetic algorithm is used as an optimization tool for solving the formulated optimization problem. Examples are given to illustrate the considered problem and the proposed solution methodology.     

Reliability analysis of repairable systems from in–service failure count data

Point maximum likelihood estimators for parameters, mean number of failures, and failure rate in a non–homogeneous Poisson process are derived, when only count data from k identical processes are available. Approximate confidence intervals based on the parametric bootstrap technique are considered. The performances of both the point and interval estimation procedures are assessed via Monte Carlo simulation.     

APPROXIMATING ANALYSIS OF A KIND OF REPAIRABLE STANDBY SYSTEMS

ＬＩＷＥＩ（李伟）；ＣＡＯＪＩＮＨＵＡ（曹晋华）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＡｐｐｌｉｅｄＭａｔｈｅｍａｔｉｃｓ，ｔｈｅＣｈｉｎｅｓｅＡｃａｄｅｍｙｏｆＳｃｉｅｎｃｅｓ，Ｂｅｉｊｉｎｇ１０００８０，ＣｈｉｎａａｎｄＡｓｉａ－ＰａｃｉｆｉｃＯｐｅｒａｔｉｏ...     

Cost and probabilistic analysis of series systems with mixed standby components

This paper deals with the reliability and availability characteristics of four different series system configurations with mixed standby (include cold standby and warm standby) components. The failure times of the primary and warm standby components are assumed to be exponentially distributed with parameters λ and , respectively. The repair time distribution of each server is also exponentially distributed with parameter μ. We derive the mean time-to-failure, MTTF, and the steady-state availability, A_T(∞), for four configurations and perform comparisons. For all four configurations, comparisons are done for specific values of distribution parameters and of the cost of the components. Finally, the configurations are ranked based on: MTTF, A_T(∞), and cost/benefit where benefit is either MTTF or A_T(∞).     

马氏骨架理论在系统可靠性中的应用

本文利用侯振挺等人提出的马尔可夫骨架过程理论讨论了串——并联混合系统的可靠性.该模型有四个不同部件和一个修理工组成,部件的寿命和修理时间均服从一般分布.     

Cost benefit analysis of series systems with warm standby components

This paper deals with the cost benefit analysis of series systems with warm standby components. The time-to-repair and the time-to-failure for each of the primary and warm standby components is assumed to have the negative exponential distribution. We develop the explicit expressions for the mean time-to-failure, MTTF, and the steady-state availability, A _T () for three configurations and perform a comparative analysis. Under the cost/benefit (C/B) criterion, comparisons are made based on assumed numerical values given to the distribution parameters, and to the cost of the components. The configurations are ranked based on: MTTF, A _T (), and C/B where B is either MTTF or A _T ().     

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR A REPAIRABLE PARALLEL SYSTEM WITH TIME-VARYING FAILURE RATES

To solve a real problem :how to calculate the reliability of a system with time-varying failure rates in industry systems,this paper studies a model for the load-sharing parallel system with time-varying failure rates,and obtains calculating formulas of reliability and availability of the system by solving differential equations. In this paper, the failure rates are expressed in polynomial configuration. The constant,linear and Weibull failure rate are in their special form. The polynomial failure rates provide flexibility in modeling the practical time-varying failure rates.     

A limit theorem of certain repairable systems

Many large engineering systems can be viewed (or imbedded) as a series system in time. In this paper, we introduce the structure of a repairable system and the reliabilities of these large systems are studied systematically by studying the ergodicities of certain non-homogeneous Markov chains. It shows that if the failure probabilities of components satisfy certain conditions, then the reliability of the large system is approximately exp (-) for some >0. In particular, we demonstrate how the repairable system can be used for studying the reliability of a large linearly connected system. Several practical examples of large consecutive-k-out-of-n:F systems are given to illustrate our results. The Weibull distribution is derived under our natural set-up.This research work was partially supported by the National Science Council of the Republic of China.This work was supported in part by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada under Grant A-9216, and by the National Science Council of the Republic of China.     

双复合泊松风险模型下的投资问题

在经典风险模型基础上,研究了保险公司保费收入和索赔均服从复合泊松过程的双复合泊松风险模型,针对最优投资策略和求解破产时刻惩罚金期望折现函数的问题,利用重期望公式和马氏性得到期望折现函数满足的带边界条件的二阶积分微分方程,通过高效的Sinc数值方法求出折现函数的近似数值解,从而由图像分析破产概率变化的趋势.     

A class of renewal Interrupted Poisson Processes and applications to queueing systems

Switched Poisson Processes and Interrupted Poisson Processes are often employed to characterize traffic streams in distributed computer and communications systems, especially in investigations of overflow processes in telecommunication networks. With these processes, input streams having inter-segment correlations and high variance as well as state-dependent traffic can properly be modelled. In this paper we first derive an approximation method to describe the Generalized Switched Poisson processes in conjunction with a renewal assumption. As a special case of this class of processes, the class of Interrupted Poisson processes is also included in the investigation. As a result, a generalization of the well-known class of Interrupted Poisson processes is obtained. It is shown that the renewal property is also given for this general class of Interrupted Poisson processes having generally distributed off-phase. To illustrate the accuracy of the presented renewal approximation of Generalized Switched Poisson processes and to show the major properties of the General Interrupted Poisson processes, applications to some basic queueing systems are discussed by means of numerical results.This work was done while the author was with Institute of Communications Switching and Data Technics, University of Stuttgart, Seidenstrasse 36, D-7000 Stuttgart 1, FRG.