Monte Carlo EM加速算法

EM算法是近年来常用的求后验众数的估计的一种数据增广算法, 但由于求出其E步中积分的显示表达式有时很困难, 甚至不可能, 限制了其应用的广泛性. 而Monte Carlo EM算法很好地解决了这个问题, 将EM算法中E步的积分用Monte Carlo模拟来有效实现, 使其适用性大大增强. 但无论是EM算法, 还是Monte Carlo EM算法, 其收敛速度都是线性的, 被缺损信息的倒数所控制, 当缺损数据的比例很高时, 收敛速度就非常缓慢. 而Newton-Raphson算法在后验众数的附近具有二次收敛速率. 本文提出Monte Carlo EM加速算法, 将Monte Carlo EM算法与Newton-Raphson算法结合, 既使得EM算法中的E步用Monte Carlo模拟得以实现, 又证明了该算法在后验众数附近具有二次收敛速度. 从而使其保留了Monte Carlo EM算法的优点, 并改进了Monte Carlo EM算法的收敛速度. 本文通过数值例子, 将Monte Carlo EM加速算法的结果与EM算法、Monte Carlo EM算法的结果进行比较, 进一步说明了Monte Carlo EM加速算法的优良性.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of multinomial probit factor analysis models for multivariate t-distribution

We propose a model for multinomial probit factor analysis by assuming t-distribution error in probit factor analysis. To obtain maximum likelihood estimation, we use the Monte Carlo expectation maximization algorithm with its M-step greatly simplified under conditional maximization and its E-step made feasible by Monte Carlo simulation. Standard errors are calculated by using Louis’s method. The methodology is illustrated with numerical simulations.     

Additive Positive Stable Frailty Models

In this article, we describe an additive stable frailty model for multivariate times to events data using a flexible baseline hazard, and assuming that the frailty component for each individual is described by additive functions of independent positive stable random variables with possibly different stability indices. Dependence properties of this frailty model are investigated. To carry out inference, the likelihood function is derived by replacing high-dimensional integration by Monte Carlo simulation. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms enable estimation and model checking in the Bayesian framework.      

Asymptotic sampling – a tool for efficient reliability computation in high dimensions

Monte Carlo methods are most versatile regarding applications to the reliability analysis of high-dimensional nonlinear structural systems. In addition to its versatility, the computational efficacy of Monte Carlo method is not adversely affected by the dimensionality of the problem. Crude Monte Carlo techniques, however, are very inefficient for extremely small failure probabilities such as typically required for sensitive structural systems. Therefore methods to increase the efficacy for small failure probability while keeping the adverse influence of dimensionality small are desirable. On such method is the asymptotic sampling method. Within the framework of this method, well-known asymptotic properties of the reliability index regarding the scaling of the basic variables are exploited to construct a regression model which allows to determine the reliability index for extremely small failure probabilities with high precision using a moderate number of Monte Carlo samples. (© 2015 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The Optimal Error of Monte Carlo Integration

The study of optimal errors of Monte Carlo methods has gained interest in recent years. Since presently no general means are available, the investigation of model problems may help one to understand the mechanisms behind them. The author provides the optimal error for the Monte Carlo integration for input data from a ball of continuous functions. As it turns out, a slight modification of the "crude Monte Carlo method" with fixed cardinality is strictly optimal even among possibly nonlinear Monte Carlo rules with varying cardinality.     

基于DMC方法的城市空气质量SUR模型研究

我国现阶段城市化的日益发展,使城市空气质量的宏观调控面临越来越大的压力。本文建立了关于空气质量的似乎不相关(SUR)模型,采用Jeffreys's的不变先验分析直接蒙特卡罗(DMC)方法,计算各参数的贝叶斯后验密度和未来值的预测密度。对中国厦门市区三项污染指标及四项外部驱动因素的数据进行实证分析,并将其与贝叶斯分层模型得出的结果进行比较。     

On iterative and Monte Carlo solutions of the Boltzmann equation

The two most commonly used techniques for solving the Boltzmann equation, with given boundary conditions, are first iterative equations (typically the BGK equation) and Monte Carlo methods. The present work examines the accuracy of two different iterative solutions compared with that of an advanced Monte Carlo solution for a one-dimensional shock wave in a hard sphere gas. It is found that by comparison with the Monte Carlo solution the BGK model is not as satisfactory as the other first iterative solution (Holway's) and that the BGK solution may be improved by using directional temperatures rather than a mean temperature.     

Semiparametric Bayesian optimal replacement policies: application to railroad tracks

We present a Bayesian decision theoretic approach for developing replacement strategies. In so doing, we consider a semiparametric model to describe the failure characteristics of systems by specifying a nonparametric form for cumulative intensity function and by taking into account effect of covariates by a parametric form. Use of a gamma process prior for the cumulative intensity function complicates the Bayesian analysis when the updating is based on failure count data. We develop a Bayesian analysis of the model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and determine replacement strategies. Adoption of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods involves a data augmentation algorithm. We show the implementation of our approach using actual data from railroad tracks. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

上证50ETF期权定价有效性的研究:基于B-S-M模型和蒙特卡罗模拟

上证50ETF期权作为中国资本市场上股票期权的第一个试点产品,其定价问题尤为重要。本文分别运用B-S-M期权定价模型和蒙特卡罗模拟方法对其定价进行实证研究,分析结果表明:1)IGARCH模型比传统的GARCH模型更能较好地拟合上证50ETF的波动率;2)当模拟次数为1000时,蒙特卡罗方法的效率一致地高于B-S-M模型,并且除了对偶变量技术的拟蒙特卡罗其他模型的精确度也都高于B-S-M模型;3)B-S-M模型和蒙特卡罗模拟方法都可以较为准确地、有效地模拟出上证50ETF期权价格。这些研究将为今后期权定价模型的发展和完善提供必要的参考和指引。     

Two-sample inference for normal mean vectors based on monotone missing data

Inferential procedures for the difference between two multivariate normal mean vectors based on incomplete data matrices with different monotone patterns are developed. Assuming that the population covariance matrices are equal, a pivotal quantity, similar to the Hotelling T² statistic, is proposed, and its approximate distribution is derived. Hypothesis testing and confidence estimation of the difference between the mean vectors based on the approximate distribution are outlined. The validity of the approximation is investigated using Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo studies indicate that the approximate method is very satisfactory even for small samples. A multiple comparison procedure is outlined and the proposed methods are illustrated using an example.     

Minimal relative entropy for equivalent martingale measures by low-discrepancy sequence in Lévy process

In this paper, we focused on computing the minimal relative entropy between the original probability and all of the equivalent martin gale measure for the Lévy process. For this purpose, the quasiMonte Carlo method is used. The probability with minimal relative entropy has many suitable properties. This probability has the minimal Kullback-Leibler distance to the original probability. Also, by using the minimal relative entropy the exponential utility indifference price can be found. In this paper, the Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods have been applied. In the quasi-Monte Carlo method, two types of widely used lowdiscrepancy sequences, Halton sequence and Sobol sequence, are used. These methods have been used for exponential Lévy process such as variance gamma and CGMY process. In these two processes, the minimal relative entropy has been computed by Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo, and compared their results. The results show that quasi-Monte Carlo with Sobol sequence performs better in terms of fast convergence and less error. Finally, this method by fitting the variance gamma model and parameters estimation for the model has been implemented for financial data and the corresponding minimal relative entropy has been computed.     

On Markov chain Monte Carlo Algorithms for Computing Conditional Expectations Based on Sufficient Statistics

Much work has focused on developing exact tests for the analysis of discrete data using log linear or logistic regression models. A parametric model is tested for a dataset by conditioning on the value of a sufficient statistic and determining the probability of obtaining another dataset as extreme or more extreme relative to the general model, where extremeness is determined by the value of a test statistic such as the chi-square or the log-likelihood ratio. Exact determination of these probabilities can be infeasible for high dimensional problems, and asymptotic approximations to them are often inaccurate when there are small data entries and/or there are many nuisance parameters. In these cases Monte Carlo methods can be used to estimate exact probabilities by randomly generating datasets (tables) that match the sufficient statistic of the original table. However, naive Monte Carlo methods produce tables that are usually far from matching the sufficient statistic. The Markov chain Monte Carlo method used in this work (the regression/attraction approach) uses attraction to concentrate the distribution around the set of tables that match the sufficient statistic, and uses regression to take advantage of information in tables that “almost” match. It is also more general than others in that it does not require the sufficient statistic to be linear, and it can be adapted to problems involving continuous variables. The method is applied to several high dimensional settings including four-way tables with a model of no four-way interaction, and a table of continuous data based on beta distributions. It is powerful enough to deal with the difficult problem of four-way tables and flexible enough to handle continuous data with a nonlinear sufficient statistic.     

Bayesian joint quantile regression for mixed effects models with censoring and errors in covariates

In this paper, we discuss Bayesian joint quantile regression of mixed effects models with censored responses and errors in covariates simultaneously using Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Under the assumption of asymmetric Laplace error distribution, we establish a Bayesian hierarchical model and derive the posterior distributions of all unknown parameters based on Gibbs sampling algorithm. Three cases including multivariate normal distribution and other two heavy-tailed distributions are considered for fitting random effects of the mixed effects models. Finally, some Monte Carlo simulations are performed and the proposed procedure is illustrated by analyzing a group of AIDS clinical data set.     

Propriétés asymptotiques d'un estimateur dans un modèle non linéaire à effets mixtes

We propose an estimator of nonlinear mixed effects model's parameters, obtained by maximization of simulated pseudo likelihood. This simulated criterion is constructed from the likelihood of a Gaussian model whose means and variances are given by Monte Carlo approximations of means and variances of the true model. If the number of experimental units and the sample size of Monte Carlo simulations are respectively-denoted by N and K, we obtain the strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator when N tends to infinity and the ratio √N/K tends to zero.     

Inchworm Monte Carlo Method for Open Quantum Systems

We investigate in this work a recently proposed diagrammatic quantum Monte Carlo method—the inchworm Monte Carlo method—for open quantum systems. We establish its validity rigorously based on resummation of Dyson series. Moreover, we introduce an integro-differential equation formulation for open quantum systems, which illuminates the mathematical structure of the inchworm algorithm. This new formulation leads to an improvement of the inchworm algorithm by introducing classical deterministic time-integration schemes. The numerical method is validated by applications to the spin-boson model. © 2020 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Improvement of Multidimensional Randomized Monte Carlo Algorithms with “Splitting”

Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Physics - Randomized Monte Carlo algorithms are constructed by jointly realizing a baseline probabilistic model of the problem and its random parameters...     

Method of Moments Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

We present a computational approach to the method of moments using Monte Carlo simulation. Simple algebraic identities are used so that all computations can be performed directly using simulation draws and computation of the derivative of the log-likelihood. We present a simple implementation using the Newton-Raphson algorithm with the understanding that other optimization methods may be used in more complicated problems. The method can be applied to families of distributions with unknown normalizing constants and can be extended to least squares fitting in the case that the number of moments observed exceeds the number of parameters in the model. The method can be further generalized to allow “moments” that are any function of data and parameters, including as a special case maximum likelihood for models with unknown normalizing constants or missing data. In addition to being used for estimation, our method may be useful for setting the parameters of a Bayes prior distribution by specifying moments of a distribution using prior information. We present two examples—specification of a multivariate prior distribution in a constrained-parameter family and estimation of parameters in an image model. The former example, used for an application in pharmacokinetics, motivated this work. This work is similar to Ruppert's method in stochastic approximation, combines Monte Carlo simulation and the Newton-Raphson algorithm as in Penttinen, uses computational ideas and importance sampling identities of Gelfand and Carlin, Geyer, and Geyer and Thompson developed for Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, and has some similarities to the maximum likelihood methods of Wei and Tanner.     

Symbolic and numeric scheme for solution of linear integro-differential equations with random parameter uncertainties and Gaussian stochastic process input

The paper describes a theoretical apparatus and an algorithmic part of application of the Green matrix-valued functions for time-domain analysis of systems of linear stochastic integro-differential equations. It is suggested that these systems are subjected to Gaussian nonstationary stochastic noises in the presence of model parameter uncertainties that are described in the framework of the probability theory. If the uncertain model parameter is fixed to a given value, then a time-history of the system will be fully represented by a second-order Gaussian vector stochastic process whose properties are completely defined by its conditional vector-valued mean function and matrix-valued covariance function. The scheme that is proposed is constituted of a combination of two subschemes. The first one explicitly defines closed relations for symbolic and numeric computations of the conditional mean and covariance functions, and the second one calculates unconditional characteristics by the Monte Carlo method. A full scheme realized on the base of Wolfram Mathematica and Intel Fortran software programs, is demonstrated by an example devoted to an estimation of a nonstationary stochastic response of a mechanical system with a thermoviscoelastic component. Results obtained by using the proposed scheme are compared with a reference solution constructed by using a direct Monte Carlo simulation.     

A simulation study of IT outsourcing in the credit card business

The use of Monte Carlo simulation for evaluation of financial risk of an information technology project selection decision is described. A major Thai bank considered the opportunity to expand credit card operations through information technology (IT). Alternatives considered were in-house development and outsourcing. There were many strategic reasons for the initiative. However, there were also many risks associated with the proposal. A Monte Carlo simulation spreadsheet model was used to model risk parameters, and to analyze key performance variables of financial performance. Key output variables were the number of cardholders expected, project net present value, net profit, and expected return on investment. The spreadsheet model made entry of model elements transparent, and Monte Carlo simulation provided clear visual display of the financial output variables. The bank used this information in its decision to outsource its credit card operations.     

Forecasting seasonal time series data: a Bayesian model averaging approach

A flexible Bayesian periodic autoregressive model is used for the prediction of quarterly and monthly time series data. As the unknown autoregressive lag order, the occurrence of structural breaks and their respective break dates are common sources of uncertainty these are treated as random quantities within the Bayesian framework. Since no analytical expressions for the corresponding marginal posterior predictive distributions exist a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach based on data augmentation is proposed. Its performance is demonstrated in Monte Carlo experiments. Instead of resorting to a model selection approach by choosing a particular candidate model for prediction, a forecasting approach based on Bayesian model averaging is used in order to account for model uncertainty and to improve forecasting accuracy. For model diagnosis a Bayesian sign test is introduced to compare the predictive accuracy of different forecasting models in terms of statistical significance. In an empirical application, using monthly unemployment rates of Germany, the performance of the model averaging prediction approach is compared to those of model selected Bayesian and classical (non)periodic time series models.